Fairish

Who else you got as comps?

I'd say you're probably close personally. A lot will depend on what kind of showing he has in the play offs as to whether he can boost that at all.

1st the pens aren't going to waste 4 mil on Colton. You probably going to have to dish that off to a team looking to hit cap floor like SJS or CHI.

I think you are aiming low on the contract.

as for comparable it's kind of all over here. Given not all are 2 C.
Frost went at 2.1 after a 46 point year.
Zegras went at 5.75 after a 65 point year.
Newhook 2.9 after a 30 point year.
Chytil got 4.4 for a 45 point year.

It all depends if you are going to get a RFA discount or not, it's not always the case. When it's not you are looking at 100k a point. Sometimes a bump for playing center.
If it's not slightly less. But the cap is also going to rise for the first time in years.

My guess is he hits 60+ points. I don't think he has any loyalty to Col having just been traded there. If he was going to sign for a discount maybe he'd still be in BUF?

Low end 6 mil, 5.75 average on some comparable + a bump for the cap going up. You are aiming not taking into account the cap increase.
High end, 6.5 to 7 The roughly 100k a point mark, slight bump on the center role.

I also think you are either going to have to add or subtract years here.
No way he signs 6 years. He's 26 next year. That puts him out at 31. Wrong side of 30. You are probably looking at a short bet on himself deal of 2-3 years at a lower cap hit, aka the 6 mil range. Or an 8 year deal. Paval and Zegs took short deals 3 and 4 years. Which is why the cap hit is lower. If you want 6 years the answer is probably no, they will push to 7 or 8 and then want premium. AKA 100k a point.

Most likely 3 year deal, 6 mil, the Zegs contract + a bump for the cap rise. They become FA at 28 and then sign a 7 year deal probably the best way to max his money as he gets his highest contract to 35.

I appreciate the thoughtful reply. I do think it's somewhat likely they go shorter-term, something like 3 years. He might make it to 60 points but that's probably going to be it. It could depend on if he wants to bet on himself to pump up his value for a bigger payday down the road or is he going to try to get more guaranteed money now? That's something we can't know. The comps you presented are somewhat relevant but none of them are as close as Zacha and Strome in terms of age, expiry and performance. That being said, I'm sure Mitts' agent will bring up Zegras as a comp simply due to the similarities in production.

My opinion is the "If he were going to take a discount, he'd have stayed in Buffalo" narrative is a red herring. He was, essentially, the odd man out. They have their top two C's that they're paying big bucks and Dahlin's new deal kicks in next season. Mitts started performing and got his value up. They looked around and figured they couldn't spend big money on another older (relatively speaking) player when they've got younger guys to bring in and, sooner rather than later, pay. And if they have designs on trying to lure an big-time UFA's eventually, they're going to need that space. The Avs gave them an offer they couldn't refuse, so they took it. Plus, he just moved from an also-ran to a real contender which can induce guys to take discounts; winning makes some people think differently about money. In that case, he might agree to something like 6-7 years at $5.5-5.75M with full trade protection up front (first three years) then shift to an M-NTC in the 4th year. That way, he gets his guaranteed money and stability for 3 years while the team get flexibility down the road.

Given that a two-year contract takes Mittelstadt directly to free agency, the only rational possibilities are one season or long-term (five to eight). I think that 6 x $5.75 is right on the median.