Matthews and Marner payday

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Created by: allendeunico

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 28, 2017

Published: Jul. 30, 2017

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

This is third post analysis after "camp roster" and "Nylander payday". I carry over bonuses from previous season to this one.
And here we are with the hard truth, taking into account IF resign Nylander and Marner requires 8M contracts and Matthews gets 12M, Brown is resign long term on aprox 3.5-4M range, and the cap stays flat, then my conclusion is;
All JVR/Bozak/Komarov will be gone next summer unless someone takes 1yr high $ contract which i doubt.
M.Martin will not end his contract with Leafs, cap hit is 2.5M but salary last year is only 750K so someone like ARI as an example could be target to deal him for cap space.Maybe Rychel can supply grit (last season had 118PIM Marlies, has to be due to droping gloves) even not heavy weight like Martin and maybe even produce more.
Marleau's contract on his last year means he could also very well be gone (salary last year only 1.25M) if you find someone to take his cap and he accepts waive NMTC, but even if gone still not enough cap for Gardiner, and Carrick, so actual D prospects better be ready by 2019 to perform.
Regarding Brown it would be better to sign a 3 yr deal with lower cap hit to try have more $ available on 19-20.
The leafs have found that they had a better team than expected and we have a 2 year window to try go deep in playoffs, 19-20 should be a regression year due to cap constraints, but after that and if prospect pool keep supplying decent players 2020 should be picking up again, but many faces around Matthews, Nylander, Marner will have changed.
And as painful as it could be, no long term signings of player like Tavares, and or expensive D-man wihout touching core group, club has to develop from within.
GO LEAFS GO

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Matthews, Auston	8	$12,000,000
Nylander, William	7	$8,000,000
Marner, Mitchell	8	$8,000,000
Brown, Connor	3	$3,800,000
Kapanen, Kasperi	1	$1,500,000
Sparks, Garret	2	$850,000
Borgman, Andreas	1	$800,000
Gauthier, Frédérik	1	$700,000
Rosén, Calle	1	$750,000
Rychel, Kerby	1	$700,000
Johnsson, Andreas	1	$700,000
Soshnikov, Nikita	1	$700,000
Leivo, Josh	1	$700,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
BONUS 18-19, CARRYOVER	1	$4,950,000
Middleton, Keaton	2	$700,000
Bobylev, Vladimir	2	$700,000
Walker, Jack	2	$700,000
Mattinen, Nicolas	2	$700,000
Scott, Ian	3	$700,000
Gordeev, Fedor	3	$700,000
Mcgregor, Ryan	3	$700,000
Dzierkals, Martins	3	$700,000
Lindgren, Jesper	3	$700,000

Trades

TOR

FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS

ARI

Martin, Matt

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$77,000,000	$69,724,166	$0	$582,500	$7,275,834

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Marleau, Patrick $700,000$700,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $12,000,000$12,000,000 C UFA - 5	Marner, Mitchell $8,000,000$8,000,000 RW UFA - 6
Leivo, Josh $700,000$700,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Nylander, William $8,000,000$8,000,000 RW UFA - 5	Kapanen, Kasperi $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW UFA - 3
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3
Rychel, Kerby $700,000$700,000 LW UFA	Gauthier, Frédérik $700,000$700,000 C UFA - 1	Brown, Connor $3,800,000$3,800,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Johnsson, Andreas $700,000$700,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	BONUS 18-19, CARRYOVER $4,950,000$4,950,000	Soshnikov, Nikita $700,000$700,000 RW UFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 5	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Liljegren, Timothy $863,333$863,333 ($400,000$400K) RD RFA - 3	Sparks, Garret $850,000$850,000 G UFA - 1
Nielsen, Andrew $697,500$697,500 ($182,500$182K) LD UFA - 1	Borgman, Andreas $800,000$800,000 LD UFA - 1
Rosén, Calle $750,000$750,000 LD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

Jul. 30, 2017 at 11:42 p.m.

CameronLeafs

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 337

Likes: 80

Edited Jul. 31, 2017 at 12:09 a.m.

Marner and Nylander are far from proven as 8mil players. If they have similar seasons, the standard for a potential elite player leaving their entry level contract is 6 years with 6 mil. They wouldn't get 2 million over that unless they outperform Tarasenko and Backstrom, or put up numbers similar to Crosby who is sitting at 8.7million. Realistically they can look at comparables like Gaudreau and Skinner who get paid in the 5.6-7m range and that is exactly what they deserve on a bridge deal. nothing more, nothing less.

Matthews does not deserve and will not get 12m unless he puts up 100 Points and challenges McDavid for the scoring title.

Remember, when leaving an ELC the team holds the power, not the player.

Jul. 31, 2017 at 12:17 a.m.

allendeunico

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 131

Likes: 3

Quoting: CameronLeafs

But you have to think these Generational players for the leafs don't come often, if they sign 6yrs then will be UFA and could walk away, if you sign them 8year you lock them up for their prime which seems to be the trend now on NHL. I also think and hope they will take less money and/or cap rises more, I did this analysis with hard cap and high asking $ to see what the situation would be.
When I say generational players I dont mean Nylander/Marner/Matthews are same or better then other players, I mean we have them all 3 on the same team and without even one of them Leafs roster wouldn't be as good, and Leafs have to take advantage of actual skill pool available compare to what we had last decade.

Jul. 31, 2017 at 8:07 a.m.

Doug7004

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 1,363

Likes: 144

Allen: You have done some great work with the 3 year analysis, and your analysis given teams status quo is sound! Of course, it will never be left as is, and all of the above contract numbers are open to interpretation and debate! I do think that the team must have some sort of agreement with Marleau in the final year of his contract even if not in writing thus helping the cap! I know you have applied what you believe to be the "new standard" to our core players coming out of ELC, and you refer to the old standard of 6 x $6M? While I agree that this was the norrm since Edmonton rolled it out. . . . look at what this management team was able to do originally on the Gardiner contract and then just last year in resigning Kadri, and Morgan Reilly!

Jul. 31, 2017 at 8:34 a.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,720

Likes: 23,348

Leafs better when the Cup in 2020, cause there is absolutely no money left to resign I believe 12 new contracts the following. Your really think cheaping out and having Rychel, Leivo. Rosen on the team is good for team success.?

Jul. 31, 2017 at 10:04 a.m.

allendeunico

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 131

Likes: 3

Quoting: Doug7004

thank you Doug, and also Zaitsevs contract, there is always a risk on long term contracts but all those could end up to be steals....at first bridge deals looked as the way to go but now with players maturing so early, it might be better to lock them up on the first contract. Nylander still has another season, could happen the sophomore bug etc, but with the coach and management putting so much attention to detail with this guys, just the rookie season we had was out of ordinary even them were surprised. I don't see it happen, look at Nylander and Marner at the worlds....
If they are all 3 signed bridge deals won't be able to afford them all 3 next contract, so 8 year seems better on the long run at least for 2 of the players. Look Chicago, Toews and Kane after bridge deal now sign forever and entering their 30's, the good thing they already won the cups, but now each year the price to keep them will be higher and harder to swallow, and Seabrook and Keith....
Signing Matthews/Nylander/Marner 8yr ensure to keep them all for their prime and UFA before they are 30, if TOR has a cup by year 6 of these guys can even explore to trade one of them for high return in prospects/picks to keep developing from within.
Anyway this is all blabla, I can't wait for the season to start and see how things unfold.

Jul. 31, 2017 at 10:16 a.m.

allendeunico

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 131

Likes: 3

Quoting: palhal

palhal I really think you don't read explanations above the rosters.....I did this 3 year rosters with a clear purpose; IF there is flat cap and all of Mathews/Nylander/Marner require high range contracts what would the situation be. If you see I didn't even bother to think trades, just use actual depth from within and signed everybody 700K cause there is no money to fill a roster otherwise, so my conclusion was that this was the case we are f**** in 2019-20 unless Marleau and Martin contracts are dealt, but even so and if cap rises more and the 3 don;t take as much money will still be hard to keep Gardiner, Carrick i think will be gone also....so I don't see how Leafs can sign Tavares, JVR and Doughty like so many posts I see without giving away the core group (Kadri/Reilly/the big 3 and Andersen which are the spine of team) and you have to add Hyman and Brown as it seems they are looked as part of long term.

Jul. 31, 2017 at 12:52 p.m.

Lightbulb

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 247

Likes: 11

I think the contracts for the 3 are very realistic.

Matthews: Although he's not on McDavid's level he is as valuable to the Leafs as Connor is to the Oilers and the Matthews camp could argue that in the future he could possibly win the Rocket and maybe challenge for the Hart. So 12 million is very realistic, if Matthews wants 12 million the leafs have no choice to give him that kind of money its been a while since the leafs have had a player the calibre of Matthews.

Nylander, Marner: If Draisaitl gets 8-9 million, Nylander and Marner's camp could argue that although they aren't quite as good as Leon they still are elite players so 8 million does seem realistic....

Personal Take: Although it seems like a lot of money for young players thats the way the league is transitioning into but I ultimately believe that at the end of the day the Leafs will move either Nylander or Marner to free up some cap space.

Jul. 31, 2017 at 1:08 p.m.

CameronLeafs

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 337

Likes: 80

Quoting: allendeunico

Quoting: CameronLeafs

I agree and I see how the 3 will likely be asking for the amount listed, but giving them all nearly 2m more than arbitration would give them is foolish for trying to build a cup contender. I think Matthews contract is the most realistic as the leafs will lock him up for a long time and pay him more than enough. I think Nylander and Marner are both really good, but they have no comparable players making $8m+ a year coming out of their ELC. I just don't see how the leafs hold the power in negotiations and let 2 players take an extra 4m a year off of them.

Paying them 6mil vs 8mil isn't a huge deal in the bigger picture, likely I see them getting a 6.5-7m deal for 6-7 years and then getting 8.5-9 after that. I just feel like $8million is at least $1million too much.

But I would like to say I love how you put this all together you did a really good job!

Jul. 31, 2017 at 3:11 p.m.

Billius

Leafs Fan

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 324

Likes: 24

Edited Jul. 31, 2017 at 4:13 p.m.

This looks pretty realistic, although I'm *hoping* Leafs can sign the Big 3 and Brown each for .5-1M less than shown here. I do like how you slotted players on the right wing.
Shame we had to lose Jake Gardiner but it would be hard to re-sign him given the cap.
I'm not sure if Borgman has played the right side before, I do know Calle Rosen has.

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