Thanks for playing. I see we're pretty far apart. Is that WIlliam Karlsson or WIlliam Nylander they're trading for? http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=142653

Lars Eller is a shutdown center who looks solid playing against Sidney Crosby in the playoffs, and has put up 25 to 30 points in the last six straight seasons (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=142653). That alone would be enough to get those two guys back, but maybe Washington throws in a longshot right handed defenseman prospect, for taking one of only two right handed defensemen in Vegas' system.

Lucas Johansen is a recent first round pick who could be a top pairing defenseman for a long time. William Carlsson, a recent second round pick with the potential to play somewhere in a team's middle six, and Colin Miller a surprisingly decent fifth round pick who has shown great foot speed and a hard shot, but hasn't really risen above the bottom pairing in two years in which the Bruins squeaked into the playoffs once, aren't enough to trade for him.

Brooks Orpik is one of the toughest and most effective shutdown defensemen in the NHL. He's 37 years old and makes a lot of money, true. I don't think the Caps actually consider trading him unless there's someone great they have a chance to add. Jaromir Jagr may still be an effective NHL player at 45 years old, or he may not. Orpik is much less of a gamble this year, especially at a similar salary. I could see Jagr making the caps on a pto, at minimum wage, but he's not someone they clear salary for, this year.

WHAT??? Jagr at min salary on a PTO, that is insane. How is a guy who had 45 points last year as much of a risk as a bottom pair stay at home defender? And oh year 1 year for $3.5M is way better than 2 years at $5.5M.

Orpik is no longer the shutdown defender you claim, esp. at that price tag. He's not even a top pair PK defender for the Caps. He has serious negative value at that production/cap hit and age.

There is zero chance that 1 year of Eller would bring back Miller and Karlsson, it wouldn't bring back one of those guys as they are both cheaply under control for 3 seasons. Karlsson is likely to outproduce Eller as is.

That's a massive overpayment for the Caps. Karlsson is no better than Eller, although younger. Miller is better than Orpik, but still only a 2nd pair dman. Why should the Caps give up a 1st, potential top-4 dman, and 2 prospects for minor upgrades? Take out Johansen and make the 1st a 3rd and then maybe the Caps consider it.

Is it? Karlsson produced at the same level relatively to Eller last year and he's cheaper, younger and under control for 2 additional years. Miller is not only better than Orpik now, but he's far cheaper and younger, plus a 3rd year of team control. Also by getting out of Orpik's contract (and Eller's to an extent), the Caps not only have the cap room to round out their roster, but they will have future flexibility next year, which will help them retain Carlson and add a decent player.

Play this out if they don't make the trade, right now the Caps don't have enough money to have a 23 man roster if Vrana is on it. Then next year they might have enough for Carlson (hardly a guarantee), but they lose Eller for nothing and are missing a 3C with almost no cap room to replace him, or to add other pieces.

First: yes, it is. Losing a 1st and a prospect who recently went in the 1st for less than a top-6 forward or top pair dman is a bad move. Add in losing a 3C and 2 more prospects, and it's a really bad deal.

Second: sure you have those guys under control, but you're trading away 3 prospects and a pick that's more valuable than either player being acquired. Johansen could very well be better than Miller, so there's another loss. It's unlikely that Stephenson or Walker is as good as Karlsson, but 3Cs aren't that hard to get.

Third: let's play it out. Sure they can't field 23 men, but they almost never did last year anyways. They can field 22 and still bank cap space. Next year, they can always trade Orpik to free up cap space and they should be able to pay less for their backup goalie. They could lose Eller for nothing and sign a different 3C for less, or they can re-sign him for less. Either way, they still have some valuable assets that you would give away. The only benefit for the Caps is getting rid of Orpik's deal, but they can do that in the offseason.

Brooks Oprik has the ShotSup HERO ranking of the average defensemen. I don't know how you define "shutdown", but it would appear to me that we having definitions at the end of the spectrums.

A couple of things:

1-3C's aren't that easy to get. You may have noticed multiple teams still trying to acquire 3Cs. The last time the Caps acquired a 3C it was 2 years of Eller at over $3M a year for two 2nd round picks. Karlsson is probably more productive, younger, cheaper and under control for 3 years. That alone suggests he should net more than a pair of 2nd round picks. You say that next year they can sign a 3C for less, but those options aren't really out there.

Johansen could be better than Miller, and maybe in 2-4 years when he's ready for the league he will be better than Miller, but that is a couple years down the line and the Caps need help now. Also it's very possible he not only won't be better than Miller, but he might not make the league at all (at least as a regular). His status in prospect circles isn't exactly screaming the upside you are projecting. As for Stephenson and Walker they have less of a prospect pedigree, and feel more like 4th line/AHL guys. Maybe one will breakout, but again it's relatively unlikely.

I don't know how often the Caps only used 22 guys, but I went back to some old game logs and while sometimes there were only 2 scratches there were plenty of times there were 3. Caps also can't rely on being nearly as healthy as they were a year ago. Injuries will happen and they can't bank that much cap space with this plan. They can wait to trade Orpik next year, but they will still have to give up positive assets to do so.

That five out of ten is one less than Ryan Suter. It's tied with Karl Alzner, one better than Marc Staal, three better than Dion Phaneuf, and five better than Dan Girardi. http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com/

So if that's the stat you pay a defensive defenseman for, the Caps are gettin' a pretty good deal. More likely that's just not an all-encompassing defensive statistic.

Add in that Orpik is the best the Caps have at stopping rushes at the blueline (https://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2017/07/26/brooks-orpik-defended-blue-line-like-boss-last-season/) and I'd say he's just about earning his paycheck, defensively.

Of course, Orpik is also paid as a superpest, wearing down opponents with relentless checks. I recall a playoff game where Orpik hit Brayden McNabb along the same boards three times. McNabb stopped trying to carry the puck into the zone quite so much, that series, which made Philly's rushes more predictable. When he was a Penguin, Orpik was infamous in Washington for stick fouls against Ovechkin. He's not as big as Ovechkin, and he doesn't hit as hard, but he found ways to annoy him and make his job difficult.

The guys who excel at that ShotSup stat, I think, are the guys who, when they break up a rush, have such good hand eye coordination that they flip the puck back up ice for a shot by a teammate. Orpik doesn't do that, but he does limit opponents' offensive options in traditional ways, and he's good at passing the puck a little ways up ice, and letting his teammates deal with it, from there. He started a slight majority of his shifts last year in the defensive zone and had a fantastic plus/minus, in spite of contributing almost nothing, offensively. That means that, whether or not his opponents got shots off, they didn't score goals, and Orpik's teammates did. Right?

So, yeah, I think the Caps are keeping Orpik, especially with Alzner gone, unless there's someone better coming back to fill his cap space. Then I think they listen to offers, and try to get back a younger player with more foot speed, as they fine tune their roster to beat the Penguins, rather than just keeping together a team that beats everybody else. Colin Miller is young and quick, so I definitely see the Caps being interested in him, to help them keep up with Sheary, Kuhnackl, Guentzel, et. al.



Eller, in the last year of his contract, is free to negotiate an extension, and the Caps are free to let him do so as part of a trade, if that's your hangup.

The Caps were the best team in hockey, over the last two regular seasons. For parts of this season, Orpik was indeed on the bottom pairing (although he still averaged 17:47 a night). So was Kevin Shattenkirk. Now the Rangers (a perennial playoff team) have Shattenkirk pencilled in on their top defensive pairing.

With Karl Alzner gone, as a free agent to Montreal, Orpik is a top four defenseman again on these Caps. And they are still a playoff team. If Vegas wants to be one of those, Orpik is a guy who could help them out. I'm not saying they want that, right away. Their expansion draft selections tell me they want to build through the draft this year, and gradually develop a nucleus of young, talented players, so they probably don't offer fair value for Orpik, but they certainly don't need to take back anything extra to put up with adding a shutdown defenseman from the best team in hockey, who has a Stanley Cup ring he earned with Vegas' starting goalie.

Jagr had 46 points, last year, and a plus 2 rating, with over 56% of his shifts starting in the offensive zone... He's a guy who you put out on the ice, and somebody scores, but it's an even bet which team they're on. Orpik put up a +32 last year, with a slight majority of his shifts starting in the defensive zone. That means that, whatever it is he's doing, his team scored 32 more even strength goals with him on the ice than they let in.

Jaromir Jagr will still play in the NHL this year, and he will still put together an electrifying highlight reel of incredible offensive plays. But this year's Washington Capitals have guys in every position who play responsible, defensive hockey, and can also contribute a little bit of offense when they get the chance. I'm not sure Jagr fits with that plan. If so, it's in a limited role, probably on a third or fourth line at even strength, with a big role on the power play, when his defensive weaknesses will be less of an issue, and his offensive creativity can shine along with some of the best in the NHL. If Jagr takes a cheap contract to get a chance to play with the Caps, it gives him a chance to win the Cup, and to redeem himself for the horrible years he played in Washington, fifteen years ago. If he helps the Caps win the Cup, then he can certainly have a five million dollar contract next season, in Washington or elsewhere.

I'm not sure whether Jagr is looking to be a bit player on a contender, though. He tried that with Boston several years ago, helped them reach the finals, and didn't get much of a reward for it. I think he's pretty happy being a star player on teams that need one.