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phillyjabroni

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Mar. 8, 2017
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Forum: Armchair-GM48 minutes ago
Forum: Armchair-GM12 hours ago
Thread: Three Team Trade Would Have To Be Done
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RipNasty</b></div><div>Who's mortgaging their future? Bubble teams or border line contenders? Most of them still have some pretty good prospects coming up. What about Dallas? What do you think they'll pay to add a 50% Nylander at the deadline? That's without even really thinking!

The reason you can't see this is because you don't want to. You, for whatever, reason (my guess is some dislike towards Nylander or The leafs) so you make up reasons it doesn't make sense and just refuse to see anything beyond a no. Get passed that and there is a chance for rational conversation</div></div>

Contending teams won't pay to add 50% RS to a rental player. All the teams are against the cap so they'll need RS to even make it work. An extra 50%, sure I could see teams footing the bill for that. Dallas would be good to add but they'll want to keep Bourque, Stankoven, and Wyatt, so who's the forward prospect going back in that deal? Martino, a solid bottom-six upside player, if you're lucky?

I don't have any ill-will against Nylander or Toronto, just observing as a Flyers fan. Unless they have a deal in place to flip Nylander again immediately, I'd rather be on the safe side and keep a near 30-goal scorer and the de facto captain versus a player who could very well walk if there is no deal in place.
Forum: Armchair-GM15 hours ago
Thread: Three Team Trade Would Have To Be Done
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RipNasty</b></div><div>Also I am very glad you mentioned the 43 point season from Laughton. That happened when he was playing top 6 minutes on a very terrible Flyers team. He produced 43 points while getting the most offensive opportunity of his career. Opportunities that absolutely will never come in TO. Tippet got 49 points while getting prime opportunity on a bad team. Nylander nearly outscored both of these guys while playing the same amount of time.

Thank you for setting me up for that gem. I doubt you'll learn anything from it but this is a learning opportunity. Next time take a look at the numbers first before spouting off nonsense.</div></div>

This trade just doesn't make sense for either team. Nylander is certainly a great player for the Flyers to add, except he will be on the other side of 30 by the time the Flyers are actually going to be contending for the playoffs. I don't think his rental value is going to be so much greater than whatever the Flyers could get for Tippett + Laughton for it to make sense to move them. The Flyers come out ahead from an on-ice perspective, but even if Nylander nets (2) late first round picks, what are the odds they turn into someone like Tippett? I'd rather just keep the known commodity of someone who fits the team style and trajectory versus acquiring Nylander and then trying to flip him again at the deadline for another bite at the apple.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 10:02 p.m.
Thread: Mathieu Joseph
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Richard88</b></div><div>He'll be on LTIR for a couple of months at least. The point of including him was to make cap room for Colorado, though for all intents and purposes he could be moved in a separate trade unless Ottawa or the 3rd team want him.</div></div>

I don't think OTT would be able to be cap complaint and would in a terrible spot to use their entire LTIR relief pool on a Pinto signing. They'd have almost no way to recall players and would run an extremely thin roster until he returns, in which they'd need to make a move to become compliant. They also wouldn't accrue any cap space for the trade deadline. I'd venture to say they'd almost have to move someone to make this work out, LTIR doesn't create cap space. It creates cap relief if a team exceeds their ACSL. They are already maxed out in terms of cap space so I can't see this working out, but LTIR is complicated and I might be missing something.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 3:17 p.m.
Thread: How would you make this trade more fair for both teams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>Again u saying Laughton and Joseph are the same player is why everything u say to me is useless and I don’t even bother taking it seriously lol</div></div>

Can you elaborate more on how there is a substantial difference between Laughton and Joseph from an on-ice perspective? What specific skill set, narrative, or context would you use to support that claim?

Last year at 5v5, Laughton had a 1.25 P/60 with an O-Zone Start % of 43.06% compared to Joseph's 1.21 P/60 with an O-Zone Start % of 39.60%. Both players are above-average penalty killers and Laughton was fine on the PowerPlay, but ideally is deployed on the second unit if necessary on a playoff team. The only contention I'd say isn't valued for on-ice is Laughton's leadership but I don't think that is worth heaven and earth when he isn't in an official captaincy position. He may be the de facto captain, but I cannot possibility consider that to be of such significant value to make a Laughton/2nd for Joseph/Pinto trade "probably too much to give up"
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 10:44 p.m.
Thread: Sell Off
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TMLBRIAN</b></div><div>I made the Ottawa side of this trade here - https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/762226?post_id=4421192 - Ottawa looks seriously good with Laughton. He is a middle 6 guy but he is exactly the type of guy they need. I like it for both teams.

I doubt Keller is available. Konecny at 2.75m cap for 2 years would be a lot. Carolina has virtually no high end prospects, I get that, but they currently have the best d core (maybe ever constructed? Am I crazy in saying that?). I think this deal makes a lot of sense for both teams. Carolina needs to go all in. They are extremely good.

UPL has no value in this trade in my mind. it was more goalie in vs goalie out. And fair. I can see Buffalo rejecting this trade. They have the best goalie prospect in the world in Levi, so I can see why they don't do this. Hart for 2 years until Levi is 100% ready could be a good play though.</div></div>

I don't think the retained salary on TK makes much a of a difference. Teams would rather send money out versus getting a salary retained. Carolina has a very strong cap sheet and the marginal benefit of an additional 2-2.5M isn't worth the additional cost of getting him down there. Carolina can still go all in without having to completely mortgage their future for someone who'd probably be 4th best forward last year.

Ottawa isn't going to pay the price of acquiring high end talent for someone they already have. Joseph and Laughton are pretty much the same player, minus some intangibles, which even then is pretty subjective valuation.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 9:02 p.m.
Thread: Sell Off
I think the Ottawa trade is a bit adventurous. I don't think Laughton is quite what they are looking for at that cost. In theory, they could probably put that package together and get someone around the same age and caliber of Pinto (see Newhook trade) rather than a middle-sixer who is approaching the age curve.

Would love to see that return from Carolina, but with their defense core about the age of 30 and no player under contract through 2025-26, I think they'd like to keep their top prospect Nikishin to either develop or go after a bigger fish (Clayton Keller perhaps).

I think the Hart trade is fine in value, personally not super high on UPL and Buffalo probably wants to roll the dice on Levi and potentially use Ostlund + 1st to upgrade on a different position. Wouldn't mind the return on that one. The other trades are basic rentals
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 1:21 p.m.
Thread: Marner Must Go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>Yeah we can just agree to disagree man I see what ur saying and I see where ur coming from, I just completely disagree with all of it. I don’t Cowan is worth a thing and we have guys like Minten already. I don’t think they missed the market on Laughton I think it will be just as hot at the deadline and I think TK fetches more than ADB because ADB needed a new contract and forced his way out so u had to get what you could. Using up all ur retention slots for years to come is still just stupid no matter what anyone says.</div></div>

I agree that Minten and Cowen aren't my preferred prospects, but nobody is going to trade multiple high-caliber prospects for TK. He's not good enough to be a price maker in the trade market. The retention slots don't matter if you are using them to get a prospect like Byfield. Whatever you'd get in return for those retained salary spots won't even come remotely close to Byfield, let along someone like Cowen or Minten. The Flyers simply aren't going to get a superstar return for TK because he isn't one.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 10:10 a.m.
Thread: Marner Must Go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>No they wouldn’t. Why would you lock up 2 retention slots for 2 years and ur other one on Hayes for 3 years? That’s terrible management. They want 2 two 1sts and a good prospect for TK and Laughton is worth a 1st and 2nd so any trade for the two needs to involve 3 1st round picks or equivalents a 2nd and a good prospect. That doesn’t even include $4M worth of retention for 2 seasons which is probably worth another 2nd in itself. So you need 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and a really good prospect. This trade has a 1st in 3 years, a really good prospect, a late 2nd, a decent prospect, and an average prospect. This doesn’t even come close.</div></div>

The retention slots are lost opportunity cost but they also seldom return any draft capital that has a remote chance of ever becoming Byfield, Minten, or Cowan. If the Flyers are the 3rd team retaining, they maybe get a 4th or 5th for their trouble. They don't have any high caliber players that are expiring in the next couple of years (Atkinson, Hathaway, Walker) that they'd need to be the team to retain on them. At worst, they get a 6th round pick instead of a 5th.

Laughton isn't worth a 1st and a 2nd at this point. After this year, the cap is going to rise and team's aren't going to fork over a 1st and 2nd for a 30 year old with only 2 years left the contract. Guys like Hagel, Coleman, Goodrow, etc. all had team control or were locked in at a dirt cheap rate for a very specific team that needed maximum cap flexibility. Laughton is worth whatever someone WILL pay, not what someone WOULD have paid. He's a solid middle six player, but they missed the market on him when guys like Reilly Smith and Tyler Toffoli go for mid round picks.

TK falls into a weird category. He's not a franchise cornerstone player but he's not an older, solid top/middle six player. DeBrincat just went for a 1st, 4th, and depth prospect. He's not a gamebreaker and won't get a prospect anywhere close to Byfield in a return trade. Cowan and Minten are decent enough prospects that even if they get swapped for draft picks, you aren't getting any value added.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 8:54 p.m.