Mar 8, 2017
Posts per Day
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>Frost for Dumba 1 for 1 alone is too much.
Adding York to the Sharks is too much too, otherwise fair value.</div></div>
Philadelphia needs more stability on the back end and Frost's entire projection relies solely on his skill transitioning to the NHL level. I don't have serious expectations for him to be anything more than a 2nd line center and with Couturier, Hayes, Konecny, Lindblom, Voracek, and Patrick, he's going to have to outperform one of them. Gostisbehere has run his course in Philadelphia and if the deal is necessary, the 1st rounder can be conditional.
As for Meier, Philadelphia gets to unload JVR and move for an established top-line player who can still develop into more. Philadelphia is moving potential for known in Meier. Cam York is a solid prospect, but I don't think he'll be more than a solid second pair defensemen.
I would be perfectly fine with this move also:
2020 1st round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dan10900</b></div><div>In the end goals are what matter, and yes, player do consistently underperform (Hornqvist Tkachuk already) or overperform (Kane* Laine to a smaller extent) and you can adjust for that accordingly, but that doesn't mean in the majority of cases (especially smaller sample sizes... Kane's xGF all of a sudden falling off) xGF is completely useless (especially things like RAPM xGF where it adjusts for QoT QoC usage etc) and defensively xGA is 100% the best metric we currently have available, it shows to the best of our ability how many chances a player limits etc, and you don't have to worry about having a terrible goalie tanking a players defense, and the unexplained factor in most RAPM models is 80% offensive/TM's S% bc the variance in opponents shooting/offensive talent largely balances out</div></div>
My critique of using expected results as being directly related to a player's ability is that the measurement cannot take into account enough variables to accurately indicate a player's skill or value. Often times analytic people on Twitter (Micah, EV twins, Dom, etc.) will use the rhetoric that "we understand the model has flaws, but it's the best available so we will rely on it until we can develop better models." This mostly comes into effect with WAR/GAR models and micro statistics (zone entries, exits, etc.)
I could pull up any player's xGA and the only thing I'd be able to definitively say is that they were on the ice for when those results happened. It cannot account for positioning, systems, situation, etc., and those limitations effectively make the stat useless with regards to player evaluation. I think it's nice to look at after watching games, but there needs to be context to the stat, which there currently isn't any. The concept of "something is better than nothing" doesn't matter if the something is used incorrectly.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dan10900</b></div><div>The issue with that logic is both Drai's GF-GA (bad stat ik) RAPM GF-xGA are negative or barely positive (and were negative till they called up Yamamoto lol)</div></div>
Again, the entire purpose of underlying metrics is to find players who can generate offense. Once you have a player like McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, etc. who can produce year in and year out, then there advanced stats aren't relevant in their evaluation of their skill set. The expected results don't matter if a player can score over the long run.
Having a good CF% does not mean that a player "drives play" - all it means is a player is out there for more chances for than against. Without supplemental data with regards to forecheck schemes, positioning on the zone entry, neutral zone schemes, etc., the stats of CF%, xGF% aren't exact in a player's value.
A player like JVR is someone who always has a high xGF%, but often times throughout the season, will miss high danger chances near the crease. This has happened sustainably for multiple seasons, so he isn't "snakebitten", he just isn't a reliable high danger scorer. His entries into the zone without the puck need to be cleaned up. Multiple times a game, he has a tendency to skate towards the puck carrier on the zone entry, forcing a dump with a low percentage recover. This, along with his lack of urgency in the offensive zone, negatively affect the Flyers offensive, even though he has good underlying numbers.