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Caps in 2018/19

Created by: steveospeak
Team: 2018-19 Washington Capitals
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 31, 2017
Published: Aug. 31, 2017
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
This is a follow up from by look at their roster this season from the other day.

I projected a $3M cap increase for next season, which it could end up slightly higher, but I feel this is a safe estimate.

So without trades here's the logic on their re-signings (no real room for any FA signings):

Carlson- 6 years $6.25M a year. I think the floor for Carlson will be 6M a year, but he definitely could approach $7M+ if he has a big year this year. So this number could rise and it's possible he holds out for the full 8 years as well.

Re-sign Beagle: Simply put Jay Beagle is a good 4C and if they are letting Eller walk (as I assume here), I can't see them letting Beagle go as well. He does so much for the Caps defensively and on the PK, as well as offering solid 4th line production. He's going to get a raise from his $1.75M current average and I think this is fair over a short time period. He will be limited in his upper range since he is a 4C (albeit one of the better ones in the league), but I think he gets over $2M a year.

RFA Grubauer- It's Grubauer's final RFA year so he's only going to sign a 1 year deal, as there is zero reason for him to give-up his UFA years. The $2.5M is a fair jump, and honestly with another strong season he could probably get move via Arbitration.

RFA Tom Wilson: Wilson is a solid-to-good bottom 6 defensive forward, who is a valued contributor on the PK. He's not been a scorer thus far in his career (unlikely to change that much), but as an RFA (with arb.) he's going to be due for a raise. Maybe he comes in more like $2.5M, but if they go multiple years $2.75M is possible.

RFA Devante Smith-Pelly: It's tough to know what happens here as it's all based on his production this season, but assuming with regular work on the bottom 6, he's going to get over $1M next year. It could end up being $1.5M-1.75M if he does even better, but $1.25M seems like a fair number.

RFAs Bowery, Barber, Boyd: These numbers are tougher to predict, esp. since Bowery and Barber won't even have Arb. rights. Assuming though that Barber finds a fairly regular bottom 6 role and Bowery ends up the 3rd pairing defender, both will see raises and this could end up being on the low end. Boyd could come back at min salary, but I could see a slight raise if he gets some fill in playing time.

Overall I think these numbers are generally conservative for what they could cost next year. Even with the lower end or average projections the Capitals will feel a cap crunch next off season and one that will cost them at least Lars Eller. Can this team maintain competitive in this type of situation?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$2,500,000
2$2,750,000
1$1,250,000
1$700,000
1$850,000
2$1,000,000
1$650,000
1$650,000
1$650,000
1$650,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$6,250,000
2$2,250,000
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
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2020
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2021
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$78,000,000$65,679,295$82,500$1,170,000$12,320,705
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$9,538,462$9,538,462
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$3,900,000$3,900,000
C
UFA - 7
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 7
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
LW
UFA - 1
$6,700,000$6,700,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$2,250,000$2,250,000
C
UFA - 4
$850,000$850,000
RW
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
LW
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
C
UFA - 1
$2,750,000$2,750,000
RW
UFA - 6
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$1,275,000$1,275,000
LD
UFA - 5
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$6,100,000$6,100,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$650,000$650,000
LD
UFA - 1
$6,250,000$6,250,000
RD
UFA - 8
$1,000,000$1,000,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
LD
NTC
UFA - 1
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
UFA - 2
$2,500,000$2,500,000
G
UFA - 3
$720,000$720,000 (Performance Bonus$70,000$70K)
D
UFA - 2

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Aug. 31, 2017 at 12:19 p.m.
#1
Caps fan idk why
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why not sign eller to 3.5 instead of beagle at 2.25......then trade grub who is eating a chunk of salary also samsonov will be in the usa by then....also GERSICH who is a stud will be on the roster no doubt also at an entry level deal


so to make more sense of this and to clean up some mistakes u made'

1)Smith-Pelly, Devante gone saving 1.25?
2)trade grub saving 2.5
3) dont resign beagle saving 2.5

total saving ....... 6.25 million.......that will help sign eller as a 3rd line center assuming he cost around 3.5 -4mil
Aug. 31, 2017 at 1:06 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
why not sign eller to 3.5 instead of beagle at 2.25......then trade grub who is eating a chunk of salary also samsonov will be in the usa by then....also GERSICH who is a stud will be on the roster no doubt also at an entry level deal


so to make more sense of this and to clean up some mistakes u made'

1)Smith-Pelly, Devante gone saving 1.25?
2)trade grub saving 2.5
3) dont resign beagle saving 2.5

total saving ....... 6.25 million.......that will help sign eller as a 3rd line center assuming he cost around 3.5 -4mil


Couple of things:

As I mentioned, I wasn't predicting trades. I do believe Grubauer is traded (and possibly during this season to open up cap room for the current team)

As for Eller vs Beagle, I'd lean to Beagle as I think his face-off ability and PK ability is a bit better. Eller is the better all-around center, but he's also going to get paid more and for more years. Even if you get Eller at $3.5M (and it could be closer to $4M), he's going to likely get 4-5 year contract offers. That doesn't seem to make sense for Caps. I'd gladly take Beagle at 2 years (even 3) at $2.25M.

As for Smith-Pelly, they could opt to not re-sign him and obviously if he struggles like he did in 2015/16 that is what they will do, but if he has a solid-to-good year, I think they'd want to retain him. Either way he's not opening up a ton of cap room, esp. if a non-min player is replacing him.

As for Gersich, I get the optimism and it could end up being warranted, but he doesn't have that level of hype in prospect circles. Most prospect circles seem to peg him as a fringe player or boom or bust. Now perhaps they are wrong, or perhaps their opinion changes if Gersich has another strong NCAA season, but that also potentially comes with risk for the Caps. As I understand it he will be set to graduate next year so, another strong season and Gersich could go the Vesey/Butcher route and wait till UFA to find the best fit (and most bonus money). We will see what kind of prospect he is, but it's far safer to assume that he's in the AHL next year, than significantly contributing to the Caps.
Aug. 31, 2017 at 1:33 p.m.
#3
Who adds what?
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I agree that the Caps keep Beagle for faceoff wins and defense. His CORSI is ahead of his zone starts, which seems like a good indication that he doesn't just win faceoffs, but also helps the Caps play the puck up the ice (https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/beaglja01.html).

But unless he matches his highwater mark of 30 points again this year, he's probably not getting that raise to 2M.

Lars Eller actually gets a better shot suppression rating on his HERO chart than Beagle. http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com/

They're both really good, and they've both played their part in the best regular season team that can't beat the Penguins, who make it a point to skate two #1 centers and a legit #2C who can be counted on for twenty goals. So I would let both test the market, call up a prospect, and add a weak #1C to beat Pittsburgh. Or, if I could be sure it would work, I'd let both walk, trade Orpik for a 5th next summer (Or, if he's plus anything close to thirty again, then maybe a 2nd), and sign Tavares.
Aug. 31, 2017 at 2:25 p.m.
#4
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Really good RFA signings. I like!
Aug. 31, 2017 at 2:45 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Eli
I agree that the Caps keep Beagle for faceoff wins and defense. His CORSI is ahead of his zone starts, which seems like a good indication that he doesn't just win faceoffs, but also helps the Caps play the puck up the ice (https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/beaglja01.html).

But unless he matches his highwater mark of 30 points again this year, he's probably not getting that raise to 2M.

Lars Eller actually gets a better shot suppression rating on his HERO chart than Beagle. http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com/

They're both really good, and they've both played their part in the best regular season team that can't beat the Penguins, who make it a point to skate two #1 centers and a legit #2C who can be counted on for twenty goals. So I would let both test the market, call up a prospect, and add a weak #1C to beat Pittsburgh. Or, if I could be sure it would work, I'd let both walk, trade Orpik for a 5th next summer (Or, if he's plus anything close to thirty again, then maybe a 2nd), and sign Tavares.


Brian Boyle got $2.75M a year this summer and Kruger signed an extension with Chicago the year before averaging $3M a year. I think Beagle will top $2M, maybe he does say at just $2M flat, but I can't see him going below that.

Tavares is going to command what $10M a year (if not more), I can't see how the Caps can afford that, nor do I really see why he would want to come to a team where he'd be the 3C (unless you are saying he pushes Kutz down). I don't think the Caps can afford that, both next year and going forward. Sure not re-signing Beagle/Eller and trading Orpik (which I think they have to give something up to do so), could equal $10M, but they can't afford those three together as is. That's why Eller isn't in this simulation. Not to mention you then need to replace those guys on the roster. Then going forward the Caps cap situation remains tough and maybe the next year they don't have room for Burakovsky.
 
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