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Alaskan_RedWing
Red Wings
Member Since
Sep. 7, 2020
Favourite Team
Detroit Red Wings
2nd Favourite Team
Tampa Bay Lightning
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 8, 2020 at 11:11 p.m.
Thread:
A little out there
DET would buy out Frans Nielsen before trading him for more cap space, getting rid of that Loui Ericsson contract is going to cost VAN. DET has plenty of cap space
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 8, 2020 at 7:22 p.m.
Thread:
Retool for Youth
Trade Crosby you coward
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 8, 2020 at 7:18 p.m.
Thread:
DET Salary Dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>So I don't mind taking cap dumps but thats alot and for years. Plus I wouldnt mind getting a few bodies for right now that can grow with the team a bit. Spend a couple of those picks.</div></div>
Yeah this is not realistic, I just tried to take on as much salary as possible and don't know enough about other team's prospects. I based my value on Marleau's salary dump
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 8, 2020 at 7:17 p.m.
Thread:
DET Salary Dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles555</b></div><div>No contending team will give you 2 firsts in salary dumps way too valuable to move multiple for salary dumps when there’s other options</div></div>
what are the other options for teams that want to win with a flat cap and have to sign RFAs? Ladd's buyout is nuts, includes 3 years of $4.8m cap hit and then 3 more years of $333k.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 8, 2020 at 7:14 p.m.
Thread:
DET Salary Dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Joshhaggstrom</b></div><div>It totally seems like Detroit would be taking full advantage of both teams and I don’t think that Lou lamoriello would allow that to happen no matter how bad he want to clear cap</div></div>
oh 100%, this is quite hyperbolic cause unlike GM's would let Yzerman load up like this. But at the same time, flat cap was the best thing that ever happened to DET, they have a lot of space and an Owner who will spend money (sorry OTT) in order to win.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 8, 2020 at 6:46 p.m.
Thread:
One Last Cap Dump
DET does not need to dump salary, especially not for a top-5 pick next year. Abdelkader is being sent to the minors and will either quit or keep getting paid.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 8, 2020 at 6:44 p.m.
Thread:
Flat Cap
DET says no Maatta is worth a 5th pick at best, but we have plenty of young D that are going to be filling spots.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 3:42 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 2020
DET says no, need our picks right now especially in the 2nd round
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 3:40 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TowelPower</b></div><div>Mikey D will not be eligible. He is RFA in 2022. Goalies who are RFA in 2020-21 are eligible to be picked</div></div>
Good catch, Mike D is protected. Still going to leave Demko or Markstrom open in the expansion draft. Which is not the worst thing if Seattle picks him up, since you have Demko and DiP ready to go by then
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 3:37 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TowelPower</b></div><div>I would expect VAN to resign Marky to 6M without giving him a NTC/NMC.
TT may be resigned at 5M
Tanev might walk as well as Stetcher
Resign Gaudette, Motte, MacEwen to contracts between 1-2M, Gaudette would be slightly higher
Ferland is most likely LTIR
I can see Virtanen being traded in the off season
By the time they need to resign EP and Hughes'. You have Sutter's, Baertschi, Edler, Pearson's contracts that are expired</div></div>
Good analysis, but I disagree on a couple fronts:
1. Tyler Toffoli is getting $6+ and that is pretty clear based on the market. Evolving Hockey (which has been a little low so far) has him at $6.5, so I would expect $7 tbh.
2. I like Stetcher, but think it is the right move to let him walk if he wants more than $1.5. Tanev walking would be a mistake in my mind but your call.
3. I think Motte goes $1.5, showed how valuable he was in the playoffs and I think he could be an awesome depth player. Gaudette gets $1.3 for 2 years on Evolving Hockey's prediction.
4. I think Ferland tries to play next year, even though he shouldn't but him going on the LTIR would be helpful.
5. Most important disagreement: Even if you lose all those contracts, you are still going to have to sign good players if you want to compete. Yes, you will have $39m in cap space in 2021 when you have to sign Hughes, Pettersson and Demko. Those three players will take up $22 million in cap space and that is a very conservative guess. Now you are spending $64m on 11 players, which is 79% of your cap space and still have to add another 15 roster players with $17m in cap space. That is cap hell to me
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 3:22 p.m.
Thread:
What is fair value for taking on salary dumps w the flat cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>alpine4life</b></div><div>I was reading the beat writer on the athletics for the sens yesterdays and apparently to drop Boychuk & Ladd to easily resign all their RFAs it would cost them Dobson and more, which I doubt NYI would do.
below the final paragraph of the article, which leads to believe the Sens (Melnyk), is not really open to take many cap dumps on his team
"If any teams are going to convince the Senators to take any of their big contracts that trade package will have to be significant and may be too rich for any organisations to consider."</div></div>
Yeah one advantage DET has over OTT (both of which could really weaponize their cap space) is that Illitch's love to spend money on the Wings and trust Stevie. OTT could really do some damage if Melnyk wasn't cheap
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 3:21 p.m.
Thread:
What is fair value for taking on salary dumps w the flat cap
Ladd – I don't know what DET would get back, but that Ladd contract is a disaster. At least Loui is somewhat usable, Ladd is a minor league player with Abdelkader. I don't think there is a single Islander prospect I would take for that. Maybe a 1st AND 2nd round pick in 2022 because of how deep that draft will be, but that is the floor.
Boychuck – Serviceable defenseman and good mentor to Seider, I think there might be 1st round pick for him just because of the length left. Depends how desperate Isles are to win-now.
Russell – Unlikely but maybe a 1st or 2nd round pick if we sent Glendening as well, who Holland loves and is a great 4th line player for cheap. Doubt EDM would accept but they should. Luke is great
Ericsson – DiPietro/Demko or a 1st round pick is the minimum. They really need to get rid of that contract because they have to sign Petterson and Hughes in the next 2 years with a flat cap.
Sven – 2nd or 3rd Round pick, unlikely they will send a decent prospect for him.
Steen – 2nd pick or a good prospect, he only has 1 year left and STL could just wait it out. Seems to be a good lockerroom guy.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 3:11 p.m.
Thread:
Trading for Chiasson Hicketts and Picks
I think that is a fair trade for DET. I like Hicketts but just don't see him earning a spot on our roster because we have so many young D but could be a really good cheap 6th d-man for a competitor.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 3:04 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TowelPower</b></div><div>Yeah VAN is not going to trade Demko just for the sake of dumping Erikkson's contract. The Canucks can still afford to resign a couple of their UFAs/RFAs and have Erikkson.</div></div>
Problem is that VAN is in real trouble right now with the Cap and Expansion draft coming up. For next season your project cap space is $17 million, but you have to resign 5 RFAs, 4 UFAs (1 of which is your very good goaltender in Markstrom). Now based on Evolving-Hockey's contract projections, a conservative guess is that it will take ~$15 million for those 8 FA not including the goalie, which Markstrom will get $4-5 million on the open market. You could let Markstrom walk, but now you are hoping Demko is ready (looks like he is, but who knows). You still have to make a decision on whether you want to protect Demko or DiPietro in the expansion draft, might as well get something out of one of them which for VAN would be getting rid of Ericsson's awful contract. Don't forget you also have to sign Elias Petterson (think $10-12 million a year), Quinn Hughes (A lot) and Thatcher Demko as well the following year.
TLDR; You have a ton of young talent that needs to be signed to very expensive contracts with a flat cap and players like Ericsson and Sven taking up valuable space. DET will take those for a goalie you cannot protect in the Expansion draft or a first-round draft pick.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 2:52 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeauxPreds1</b></div><div>Here’s the thing Nashville doesn’t have to move Turris they aren’t in cap trouble. When hynes took over and he started giving Turris the minutes he needed his point production started improving have 13 points in 23 games. He was in the 4th line the majority of the season. How many 4th line players do you know that can put up a lot of points playing 4th line minutes and with 4th line players. I’m not saying Turris still has value where we can get something for him but asking for the 11th pick isn’t going to happen because we really don’t have to get rid of him because of cap</div></div>
Those are fair points, but you are going to be in a cap crunch real soon. NSH needs to sign 6 players next season with $9.5 in cap space. The next season they need to sign another 5 players (including 2 goalies) with only $12 million in cap space. Good luck doing that and still being competitive. On the other hand if you want to start a rebuild then yeah you are fine, just go sign a bunch of $1-2 million borderline AHL players to sneak under the cap. NSH has $45 million committed over the next 4 years for 7 players, which would have been fine if the cap had not been locked in at $81.5. Now you have more than half of your cap space spent of 7 players, one of which is Kyle Turris who is the oldest of the bunch and playing 3rd and 4th line minutes. Source: <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/predators">https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/predators</a>
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 1:54 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TowelPower</b></div><div>VAN declines</div></div>
It is either a first-round pick or Demko/DiPeatro for that atrocious contract that DET will likely have to buyout or bury in the minors. Figured 1st Round pick would be better considering VAN's pick will likely be late in the first round next year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 1:52 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TowelPower</b></div><div>VAN declines</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ken_holland</b></div><div>"After contacting both sides, our conclusion is we expect Puljujarvi to sign an NHL contract and return for Oilers training camp in the fall." - Mark Spector</div></div>
Removed the trade, I hope you are right cause I like Holland and think if anyone could get it done, it would be him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 1:51 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RedWing9119</b></div><div>Then you wont dump Turris. Good luck with that...</div></div>
The worst contract in the NHL and Preds fans think they deserve assets for him. It makes no sense from an objective point of view
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 1:44 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeauxPreds1</b></div><div>Nashville WILL NOT give the 11th pick to dump Turris!!</div></div>
Kyle Turris, and I do not say this in a hyperbolic manner, has one of the worst contracts in the NHL by a large margin. Even Loui Ericsson and Milan Lucic are statistically better values according to SPAR (See Evolving Hockey). Now compound that with the fact it is quite long (4 more years) makes it nearly impossible to move. I doubt any team would ever touch his contract, but DET might because Illitch's don't mind spending money. You could buy turris out for a $2 million hit over 10 years! People seem to forget the NHL cap will be steady for the next 2 years, sorry but if you want to get rid of these awful contracts, it is going to cost a lot.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 1:36 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>VastBluepuppy424</b></div><div>lol stfu Tyler had a down year Plus he had 15:33 time on ice per game for a guy who scores around 50 point in a full 82 game season,</div></div>
classy, see my post above about the value of Tyler Johnson
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 1:35 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Tampa quickly declines. First, while Johnson will likely be asked to waive his ntc, Detroit will very, very likely not be a team he's willing to go to. Secondly, his value is more than a cap dump, as he is a player averaging 47.33 points a year his last 3 before this year. While this year has been down for his standards, his reduced ice time has certainly played a role in that. He is a .6 ppg player over his career, so his 5 million price tag is not overpaid. If he does agree to be traded somewhere, yes Tampa will be restricted in the number of teams they can work with, but Johnson should still return in the range of a 2nd or 3rd. He gets a better role in a location of his choice and avoids having to submit a 20 team trade list after next season. Finally, if he and his new team aren't a fit or they want to flip him for value after a good year or expose him to Seattle to protect other players deemed more important, then that option would still be open after next season. Tampa won't be adding sweeteners and giving him away for nothing.</div></div>
As mentioned previously, I have no problem with TBL fans loving Tyler Johnson, but the reality is that he has no value for the size and length of his contract. TBL have better young players that are significantly cheaper or could go acquire better players for less and shorter terms. From an unbiased standpoint his xGAR, GAR and SPAR are poor, on par with the likes of Loui Ericsson, Joe Thorton and worse than Patrick Nemeth and Zach Bogosian. Tampa is in a win-now mode and continuing to pay Johnson for 4 more years would be a mistake, better off to move him instead of paying $5 million per year for a Replacement level forward.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 1:10 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ken_holland</b></div><div>actually, no.
Glendening has a -$300,000 market value
And Pujlujarvi is all but confirmed to sign with Edmonton</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ken_holland</b></div><div>actually, no.
Glendening has a -$300,000 market value
And Pujlujarvi is all but confirmed to sign with Edmonton</div></div>
All but confirmed? Would love to see that source
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 12:53 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ken_holland</b></div><div>Glendening is negative value. Oilers decline</div></div>
Has more value than Pool Party sitting over in Finland and refusing to play for EDM
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 12:52 p.m.
Thread:
StevieYShouldListen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>etpeck</b></div><div>Tyler johnson has value</div></div>
Johnson has value no doubt, but not $5 million for 4 years value with 31 points. His points have declined for the past 3 years and his xGAR is significantly decreasing. Dump that salary and find a much better 3rd line center for less.
EDIT: Tyler Johnson has the same GAR as Loui Ericsson, so I would assume this is a good deal for Tampa considering the likelihood Loui Ericsson is worth more than a 1st round pick for his salary dump and Tyler Johnson has a longer term contract.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 7, 2020 at 12:50 p.m.
Thread:
Who knows
DET says no, Mantha is Poehling's absolute ceiling which looks unlikely. Petry is old, if he wants to go to DET they can wait to FA.
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