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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 16 at 12:50 p.m.
Thread:
Next season
Edmonton can't afford Eller's cap hit, have their #3LHC in McLeod already, and they have a distinct need to get Broberg into the lineup as soon as they're able to shed Kulak. There's no deal here between Pittsburgh and Edmonton.
Nevermind that moving one of a club's best assets for a bottom-six rental is just bad business anyways.
Forum:
NHL
Apr. 16 at 11:45 a.m.
Thread:
2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Turbo</b></div><div>Buffalo firing Don Granato and it looks like they want to find an experienced coach as the replacement.</div></div>
Which is a shame because if there's a team that needs to be launching a bag at David Carle, it's likely Buffalo.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 16 at 11:36 a.m.
Thread:
islanders POSSIBLE trade targets from every team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fail4Nail</b></div><div>I would do either, preferably the Wahlstrom one.</div></div>
The only reason I wouldn't is strictly because I'd want the sure thing. Pageau gives McLeod the opportunity to remain on Draisaitl's left flank permanently and finds Edmonton their best RHC since Strome/Letestu. Having that #3C locked down with a cheap solution at #2LW is a wonderful thing to have.
Wahlstrom would come in as a cheap bottom-six winger, already competing with (assuming they stick around) Brown, Lavoie, Perry, and likely a free agent option to contend for middle-six work. Maybe he does well up the lineup? But it comes at the cost of Carrick et al being the best option we have for a RHC and likely means that both top-six wings alongside Draisaitl are in need of names to play those roles. The free agent pool this year is poor.
Ultimately the draft pick in return with Wahlstrom isn't doing a lot for me either. Having a healthy prospect pool is a good thing yes, but again, it's Mission Stanley until Connor and Leon aren't Oilers any longer.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 16 at 11:14 a.m.
Thread:
islanders POSSIBLE trade targets from every team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fail4Nail</b></div><div>I really think Kane will be traded this offseason, so this is a realistic option. What do you think the return would be?</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hudsonfaschingisdad</b></div><div>Going to be honest no clue but I wouldn’t mind trading a 2nd or 3rd +wahlstrom</div></div>
Pageau?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 15 at 10:57 a.m.
Thread:
Oilers
It's not going to cost Edmonton assets to move Ceci this summer. One year left, plays one of the most valuable positions in the sport, isn't a complete analytical nightmare, veteran, etc.
I don't think they get much more than a 5th round pick for him in exchange for that sweet, sweet cap relief, but he's by no means a negative asset. The only reason he wasn't moved at the deadline is there wasn't a deal out on the market to upgrade on his services outright. If that bonafide replacement was available, we probably would have seen it happen.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 15 at 10:54 a.m.
Thread:
next year
Edmonton declines: given our cap situation, our incumbent GM is going to need to eject likely both Ceci and Kulak and Edmonton will be challenged to find a comparably-decent defender as Broberg for under $1M.
But even the Blues' roster as presented doesn't really accommodate acquiring Broberg, even if it's for spare parts. He needs NHL reps and consistent minutes on a team's bottom pairing and likely some scant PK2 and PP2 time. Bringing him on to be a #7 isn't going to push his development in the right direction. The Blues - god forbid they do actually find the means to snag Broberg - are going to want to prioritize launching Krug into the sun in a subsequent move (maybe in swap for a steady #3RD to help anchor Broberg) to find him those minutes.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 29 at 3:04 p.m.
Thread:
Next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I'd rather have two $4M players than Marchessault + Perry.
And Broberg is ready, you could move Kulak and you'd have a bunch more cap space to work with - perhaps to improve the defense.</div></div>
Any interest in Terevainen at $6M?
Forum:
Site Discussion
Mar. 27 at 9:29 a.m.
Thread:
H & H Ads
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I know CF owners have to create revenue, but geez how much many CF followers buy H & H products? The ads interfere with the comments section. I appreciate busty women as much as anyone, but geez get this ad off the site, in its current format.</div></div>
I would recommend that you clear your cache and browser history: the ads generated on this site are done so algortihmically based on your own search history and browsing habits.
If you're using Google Chrome as your browser, you can change your ad settings to remove any intensive or misleading ads by doing the following:
1. Open Chrome and click the veritcal triple dot button on the top right.
2. Select "More" then "Settings" and then "Privacy and Security".
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4. You can then toggle the settings to your preferences.
Forum:
Site Discussion
Mar. 25 at 2:37 p.m.
Thread:
Suggestions Megathread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jarvis</b></div><div>2024 mock draft is coming very soon.</div></div>
How soon is very soon? Just about seven weeks now since this update and the draft is less than three months out.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 22 at 6:53 p.m.
Thread:
Eklund - Celebrini - Smith
This looks very decade-of-darkness Edmonton Oilers. Moving Hertl was very risky in terms of prospect development for the Sharks. Signing Monahan, Duchene, Pavelski, Stephenson, or offer-sheeting Lundell almost needs to happen for the Sharks just to take some of the heat off of Celebrini. Best-case-scenario he's going to be similar to year-one Eichel, but doesn't have the luxury of a O'Reilly type to insulate him. Worst-case he's year-one Jack Hughes without the promise of righting the ship behind the likes of Hischier.
Thoughts on Ceci for Knyzhov and the Pittsburgh 5th? Would be a good partner for Mukhamadullin.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 20 at 11:28 a.m.
Thread:
Honest Thoughts
Edmonton's situation with Campbell is always going to come down to the salary cap.
Conventional wisdom suggests that unless there's a team willing to take Campbell on as the cap-recapture part of a deal, or to take him for cheap, the Oilers are aiming to buy Soup out in the summer. A few AGM's I've tinkered with for next year have seen Edmonton run a cheap backup to Skinner - I typically use Rodrigue here - because the equal-to-or-greater-than $3M bonus hit that Edmonton is getting from Connor Brown doesn't leave a lot of room for quality investment across the roster. Assuming Edmonton moves Kulak and buys Campbell out, and that the trio of Broberg, Holloway, and Rodrigue all sign for just their qualifying offers, the Oilers are looking at having a hair over $12M to find two top-six wingers, a middle-six winger, a #4C, and a #2RD.
Do I think Merzlikins has a really good chance to bounce back to form on a team that hasn't been as awful as Columbus has in recent memory? Absolutely. But it's coming at the loss of almost $3.5M in cap space (the difference between the sum cost of QO Rodrigue and Campbell's buyout and Elvis' cap hit) and could be the difference between Edmonton having to forsake improvements that are going to be absolutely crucial in other areas of the roster.
If Columbus does this with some sort of retention in exchange for an asset (how much for a first?) then it's much more amenable to where the Oilers are going to be this summer, but I still think that being able to use that $3.5M to add to the skating portion of the roster makes running a rookie backup tolerable, if not legitimately feasible.
Forum:
NHL
Mar. 7 at 2:44 p.m.
Thread:
2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyScotty</b></div><div>Stecher has almost completed the Pacific Division bingo card. Just needs Seattle, Anaheim, and San Jose</div></div>
I say he does it. San Jose is yet to discover what a RHD looks like post Burns and Karlsson, and they can flip him to either Seattle or Anaheim next year.
Forum:
NHL
Mar. 3 at 11:09 p.m.
Thread:
2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>He finished high, but in playoffs, that's the norm...</div></div>
An admission that the hit is only legal once the league throws its rulebook out isn't the praise for the hit you think it is.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22 at 5:05 p.m.
Thread:
Tanev
Gotta think Bjugstad costs more than just a second: Edmonton paid that and a prospect for him as a rental. Term begets a larger return.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22 at 5:02 p.m.
Thread:
Rip Away
I don't get the point of moving Kaprizov unless it's for known talent, not prospects. One would hope that there would be an endgame to put an end to Minnesota being a mediocre team instead of just shuffling deck chairs on the titanic.
I also can't see his next deal being some bank-breaker: a tax-equivalent deal to Nylander (probably his uppermost comparable) is an AAV of $10.05M. A cap-percentage equivalent deal to Tkachuk is a $10.1M AAV. The raise he's going to be owed is small and if there's ever a playertype you DO want to overpay, it's the high-end skill that isn't guaranteed to be recreated beyond the aggregate of multiple pieces returned. For the record I don't think either combination of Cooley/Crouse or Cooley/Keller is outproducing prime Kaprizov and there's no guarantee that the returned first is an NHL player.
Minny has a lot of good quality pieces and Kaprizov is a hell of a name to be able to build around. The more straightforward path is always going to be to build around his talents instead of guessing on futures. Guerin's just unfortunately building an old-boys club instead of a competitive hockey team. Maybe that changes in the near future once the dead cap space dissipates?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22 at 4:37 p.m.
Thread:
Holloway
Value's a bit slanted in Montreal's favour, I don't personally hate it but I also don't think it's doing anything for the Oilers currently.
I also think any acquiring team could have Barron for cheaper than this.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22 at 1:15 p.m.
Thread:
Deadline targets
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>smokewiseganja</b></div><div>Dude there’s a massive difference in their ability to defense lol</div></div>
Statistically, there's little difference. The numbers do favour Carrier ever so slightly and he's getting more goaltender support from Saros than Ceci is from Skinner, but it's not a night-and-day comparison.
I would like Edmonton to acquire Carrier. I think if Holland could make the cap work that keeping Ceci as the #3RD would be a very prudent move. I'm not interested in hedging two quality assets to make that minor of an upgrade though. Give Nashville a first instead: it's very likely that once Desharnais walks and Kemp's current deal expires, Wanner is going to have every chance to be the #3RD for Edmonton. There's still going to be a massive need for cheap quality RFA deals once we hit 2025-26.
It's fine if you're just tired of watching Ceci play but you don't need to make things up.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 21 at 6:44 p.m.
Thread:
Thank you dougbrady214
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>athrin</b></div><div>Hakanpää, Jani has no value for OTT he will be gone July 1st, he is there for stars cap reason only, thus ott would need a asset to take him</div></div>
This is a poor take that far too many people adopt.
Using prorated values, Ottawa is sending more than $1.59M in actual cap back to Dallas. They only have LTIR room for up to $1.52M. The prorated value of just Lundkvist returning is $207k: the Stars don't have the necessary cap space to facilitate this trade without a UFA being returned in this deal or shed by other means. Hakanpaa is only owed a prorated $336k: if you believe Ottawa needs anything of value to be convinced to take on less than half a million dollars in owed money you're out to lunch. Seeing those numbers now, the Stars don't actually have enough cap space to make this deal work unless Ottawa takes back more or they find a way to scrape another $473k.
If the piece returned has term, then yes, the acquiring team should be owed an asset. On an expiring deal needed to facilitate the deal? Piss off.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 21 at 6:21 p.m.
Thread:
Thank you dougbrady214
Gotta think one of Bourque or Lundkvist needs to come off that trade. One can justify one of the firsts for a fully-retained Tarasenko, but asking for more than a first, third, roster player, and one youngster for Chychrun is a stretch.
Forum:
NHL
Feb. 21 at 5:57 p.m.
Thread:
2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>That's fair opinion, but Matthews seems to be a near lock for the Rocket trophy, so does that mean he's hoping that McDavid goes nuclear to have any chance at the Hart? Or is he hoping Toronto comes out of nowhere are wins the division with him being the reason?
What's the assessment? Most valuable player? Than that depends who you ask... Most valuable player to his own team? How much worse is team x without player y?
I think this is what makes the Hart trophy race so interesting this year... Is Mackinnon a franchise player? 100%! But does he impact Colorado more then Matthews would with Toronto?
Then you have all other factors too... Defensive play, line mates, Goals vs Assists, PP vs EV points, etc</div></div>
Matthews' biggest hang-up to being a lock for the Hart is the whole "who's turn is it" debate that the NHL Writers Association have to (stupidly) factor in to every debate. Of the four names in question, MacKinnon is the only one who hasn't won it yet.
We know the Rocket is essentially locked up: Matthews is going to be taking home hardware. Having thought about it a bit more, I think Nate only wins the Hart outright now if he also wins the scoring race and that the PHWA would never vote for Kucherov to win the Hart after his All-Star appearance. I'm also not trying to account for the standings because I think the PHWA doing so is also a boneheaded move but will do so below. Thus I think the breakdown is as such:
1. If MacKinnon wins the Art Ross, he also wins the Hart, circumspect of just being a dominant player this season.
2. If Kucherov wins the Art Ross and Tampa Bay is in a divisional playoff spot, then I think it's a 50-50 between MacKinnon and Matthews.
3. If Kucherov wins the Art Ross and Tampa Bay is in a wildcard spot, I think the field of MacKinnon, Matthews, and McDavid is fair game strictly because the PHWA is going to have a vendetta against Kucherov. If there is no vendetta, then Kucherov should be winning the Hart in this case.
4. If McDavid wins the Art Ross and Toronto is in a divisional playoff spot, McDavid wins the Hart with factors of a torrid late pace and the diminished factor of Matthews' importance to the Leafs' success.
5. If McDavid wins the Art Ross and Toronto is in a wildcard spot, then I think it's a 50-50 between Matthews and McDavid.
6. All points are moot if Matthews scores 76 or more goals to tie/break the "modern" mark set by Mogilny and Selanne, as the Hart sort of has to go his way at that point.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 21 at 12:54 p.m.
Thread:
How we feeling about this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>I assume Foeg's is re-signing at 2.5M, may be wishful but he seems to really enjoy being here.
It's a different idea going into deadline, maybe a bit of an overpay but refreshing from all the Guentz trade's I've been seeing.</div></div>
$2.5M seems highly unrealistic: you'd be asking the player to take a pay cut when the cap is about to take its biggest jump in recent memory. Likewise, Foegele has a back-loaded deal and is going to want to stay at or above that $3.25M mark he's currently at for this season. That's just human nature.
I'm expecting him to sign somewhere between the cap percentages of Lustorainen and Vatrano. That's going to see him earning anywhere between $3.15M to $3.85M on an $87.7M salary cap, probably on a three year deal. It feels rich for a 15G/20A player but he's always had strong possession metrics, can skate, and has picked up some PK utility in Edmonton. He's an ideal third-line forward for a team that can afford him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 21 at 12:21 p.m.
Thread:
How we feeling about this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>I don't see Smith as an improvement on Foeg's tbh, what aspect of his game is better?
Also god damn would it sting if we moved XB to Minny after trading back from Wallstedt for him haha</div></div>
Finishing and he has extra term. Statistically, he's only a minor downgrade in most on-ice metrics and replacing Foegele (or resigning him) can't be done for $2.5M.
Forum:
NHL
Feb. 20 at 10:56 p.m.
Thread:
2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>At this point, we all have a pretty good idea who's going to be in the conversation for the Hart and it's that time of year again... So here's my hart list (top 10) if I could vote (Feel free to quote this post and make your own!)
1. Auston Matthews
2. Nathan Mackinnon
3. Nikita Kucherov
4. Cale Makar
5. Quinn Hughes
6. Connor McDavid
7. David Pastrnak
8. Sam Reinhart
9. Thacher Demko
10. Artemi Panarin</div></div>
The league has famously kind of used other rewards to justify where the Hart goes. If Kucherov gets the Art Ross and Matthews the Rocket, then MacKinnon is likely getting the Hart. If Mackinnon wins the scoring race then it'll be Kucherov that gets league MVP. The Selke nominations kind of follow this pattern too (early congrats to Barkov now that Bergeron is no more)
If McDavid (and I think he could legitimately cruise at 2.00ppg for the rest of the season) wins the scoring title then I think Matthews gets the MVP apropos of Colorado was making the playoffs anyways and Kucherov didn't buy himself any voter favour with his half-assed All-Star appearance.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 20 at 1:58 p.m.
Thread:
How we feeling about this
I actually really like the Pittsburgh trade, I just don't think San Jose is going to be the team that does the retaining. They only have one retention slot until 2025-26. One figures that slot is reserved for two years of one-year rentals or Couture.
Fleury isn't an upgrade on Pickard: the only thing he's bringing is name brand recognition. Nedeljkovic is the only free agent netminder not currently on a playoff-bound team that constitutes an upgrade. Kahkonen, Reimer, Fleury, and Lankinen are all statistical downgrades with games played being the only real argument for acquiring them. Three of those names have as much playoff experience in the last four years as Pickard does. Fleury's last two years of work should dissuade Edmonton from making that purchase.
Realistically, the near $1.5M in cap space that this Fleury trade commits in net over Pickard is absolutely going to be better off used on the blueline unless it's bringing back Ned. I don't feel great about Campbell being the #3 but his play as of late in the AHL and his playoff resume thinks it could be a survivable ordeal so long as the group in front of him is running at or above 100%. One would hope Rodrigue gets some NHL exposure before the season is out in case there's continued wobble to Jack's game.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 20 at 1:38 p.m.
Thread:
dreaming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JuanDamienNebraska</b></div><div>I was just trying to work within the constraints of OP’s hypothetical</div></div>
No you weren't.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JuanDamienNebraska</b></div><div>If EDM were truly desperate for a very solid 2nd goalie then I’d say the trade makes sense. However, Pickard has exceeded expectations backing up Skinner. In a vacuum, the value is pretty fair, but EDM just doesn’t <em>need</em> to make the move. They’re better off keeping the RFA McLeod unless Pickard completely falls off in the coming weeks.
I’m sure DAL would want to use the cap space gained in the Guentzel trade toward a bigger piece at RD, such as Tanev. Therefore, including Ruhwedel in that trade really wouldn’t be necessary.</div></div>
Points like "the trade makes sense" and "don't do this unless Pickard completely falls off" do not align with agreeing to my points. This isn't one of those "team doesn't necessarily need to make this move but could under specific scenario" sorts of trades. This is an outright <em>fleecing</em> of what should be a permanent fixture of Edmonton's roster into the 2030s. It's a fundamentally bad trade and your value assessment is woefully off if you're agreeing that this is a fair value trade for Edmonton.
If the Oilers were in Tampa Bay territory and trying to cap the finishing touches of a long stretch of success (a final hurrah) then maybe, just maybe I could get down with the premise if I squinted hard enough and looked at it from a crooked angle. But we're not in that scenario and Edmonton hasn't accomplished anything since 2006. Sustained success can justify and cover up for foolish trades. A lack of success only magnifies their negative impact.
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