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BetterBrianMaclellan

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May 30, 2017
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 5, 2018 at 12:49 a.m.
Thread: Guys I'd consider trading Andre Burakovsky for
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>brady_t12</b></div><div>In my opinion, the best places for Burakovsky to end up for him to flourish would be in Edmonton, Philly, Toronto, or Dallas. The thing that I feel complicates trading Burakovsky is that I really don't know what we want for him. He's a very valuable trading asset, but there's no NEED to trade him right now. His value is also likely lower than what it truly should be after a very down season. He will bounce back, no doubt about that.

Before I comment on what I would suggest to trade Burakovsky, I'm just gonna go down the line with your trades. I'm gonna speak directly on value, disregarding team needs.

Tampa: Disappointing return for the caps, especially considering Stralman is a UFA after this season.
Anaheim: Fair, no clear cut winner
Vegas: Want a little more in return from them. Maybe a second round pick.
Carolina: Might be more fair if a pick was added from the caps. Faulk is a very good RHD who could potentially put up Carlson-esque numbers this year.
Calgary: Calgary probably wants more in return. Switch out Boyd for an early pick (2nd maybe). They don't need Boyd truly. Monahan, Backlund, Bennett, Derek Ryan, Jankowski can all play center.

I think Burakovsky would be best utilized as a piece of a larger deal. One including a roster defenseman like Niskanen, Orlov, Djoos. I'd wanna see an elite player coming back. Otherwise, we're filling holes that aren't there. Trading Burakovsky for a defenseman is fine, it can work out with the cap and the trade value, but we don't need a top four defenseman. We don't need a center. There's no reason to trade him for another middle 6/top 6 winger (depending on where you see him on the depth chart right now).

Make Burakovsky a part of a larger deal, and it makes a lot more sense to trade him. Putting him next to McDavid, or Seguin and Benn, or Tavares and Marner, or Giroux and Voracek would make for some nasty top lines. Those GMs would love a guy with the skills that Burakovsky has and would give up a very good package back if they're receiving Burra and a top four defenseman.</div></div>

Thank you so much!!! This is exactly the kind of response I asked for and I really appreciate your explanations!

Yeah, I'm kind of writing in response to a couple other Caps posts, I thin by <a href="/users/BetterBrianMaclellan" target="_blank">@BetterBrianMaclellan</a> (?) where he's willing to give more to get a defenseman who's had some power play success. But then looking at the Caps, I see Carlson, Niskanen, and Bowey who were the power play point guy on their junior teams and Carlson and Niskanen have some experience there in the NHL.... so I'm trying to look more at defensive stats and what value guys would have on the Caps' 3rd pair and penalty kill. That's why I'm overpaying for a minute eater like Stralman, even on a short, high-priced contract (on which he hopefully doesn't want a raise?). McNabb just about replaces Orpik's toughness. At that point, I don't care that he's six years older than Burakovsky with less than a third of the offensive ceiling. If Orpik isn't coming back, he's the next best thing. The Islanders went full Hansen Brothers this July, and the Caps need to stay pretty tough to keep up.

Carolina: pass, then. Faulk's even strength assists have nose-dived over the last four years, from 21, to 16, to 11, to 7. Two years ago he broke out with 13 even strength goals, but in his other six seasons he's averaged four even strength goals per year, with a hgh of six, and a mode of three. So, yes, he could break out like Carlson somewhere, most likely in Edmonton. If they get that offer, Carolina should take it. Last year Faulk had six more even strength points than Bowey. Next year, on a third pair together, Bowey could outscore Faulk.

Burakovsky and a 2nd for Lindholm? Yeah. I'd still do that one, first, just to replace Beagle's faceoffs, but also to add a very talented playmaker and keep the team young.

I wouldn't trade Orlov or Niskanen at all, though. They're a pretty good shutdown pair, together, and their total lack of power play time in Washington leaves them with disproportionately low trade values, for how talented they each are as two way players. That leaves Kempny, Bowey, or Djoos. The team is short on developed prospect depth at right defense, but could still hopefully fill that out in free agency with someone who, at even strength at least, is as good as what they'd get in trade, but either way, trading Bowey for a right defenseman is like pulling yourself up by your boot straps. The other "hole" is for a crease clearing, nasty, mean defenseman. Schenn's off the market, but Orpik's available. McNabb is eight years younger, though, and faster.

To my mid, Djoos and Kempny are interchangeable talents. One is younger and less expensive, but the other is signed long term. Teams might want one over the other, and that's fine.

I don't particularly want any of any defensemen from Edmonton in Washington, I'm undecided on just a couple from Toronto, and the ones I'd want from Philly and Dallas are probably still out of that price range. No?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2018 at 12:12 a.m.
Thread: Justin Faulk 2 DC (Carolina Trade)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Bowey had 11 even strength points last year. Faulk had 12. Burakovsky, without loooking it up, probably had more than one.

I'm still in the camp that, while the Caps made the right move in trading for rental veterans for the playoffs, as evidenced by how many minutes Trotz felt comfortable giving Kempny, and how that helped keep Orlov and ,
Orpik a bit fresherBowey and Djoos are coming along fine and ready to start next season.

Faulk has some years when he's brilliant at evens, but he isn't necessary for the Caps' power play, and his past offensive numbers will lead to a high cap hit soon. This provides great insurance in case Carlson or Niskanen gets injured, so it's not bad, but I think that Faulk might have played about 50% more minutes than Bowey, so coming out with only one more point at even strength is quite underwhelming. Which one is actually bettter? I don't know. But I know which one is younger, and spent last year working on his defense under the Caps' new head coach's direction.

If Reirden doesn't want Bowey back, I think Bowey and a 2nd for Faulk would be about fair. Bowey and Burakovsky is an overpayment. Bowey outscored Haydn Fleury last year, in similar minutes, but with slightly less sheltered zone starts. He did just fine for a rookie, and I'm not worried about him.

Faulk was -26 last year. His team took 55% of the shots when he was on the ice, but he started 58% of his shifts ahead of the red line. That says he got caught pinching in too far, a lot, and gave up too many odd man rushes. I like the experience, and the minutes played, and the minutes per game. Obviously he's a very talented player, but Reirden is going to cut him to about 18 minutes, get Orlov to babysit him, and give him a list of things to work on so he isn't hurting the team's chances by giving up regular breakaways at evens. I mean, the guy's -109 in his career? I can see why Carolina would consider moving him. I don't think the price is right, here, but I'm not rejecting the idea.</div></div>

OEL is -73. John Taveras -42. Erik Karlsson is -37. Anton Stralman is +60. I think it’s pretty safe to say that +/- stat is F***ing useless. It is more team based than indivdual and often time out of the individuals control even when they are on the ice.

Burky has 2nd line talent, produces like a 4th liner and has no heart. He has been in the league long enough that his trade value is based on who he is rather than his potential. Bowey is a nice piece but hasn’t been impressive thus far. Vanecek has 2 years in the AHL and has sv% under .900.

I agree Bowey and 2nd is about the right value though. But considering where that 2nd is likely to be....pushing 60th. Might take the 1st to do it.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 3, 2018 at 11:27 p.m.
Thread: Justin Faulk 2 DC (Carolina Trade)
Bowey had 11 even strength points last year. Faulk had 12. Burakovsky, without loooking it up, probably had more than one.

I'm still in the camp that, while the Caps made the right move in trading for rental veterans for the playoffs, as evidenced by how many minutes Trotz felt comfortable giving Kempny, and how that helped keep Orlov and ,
Orpik a bit fresherBowey and Djoos are coming along fine and ready to start next season.

Faulk has some years when he's brilliant at evens, but he isn't necessary for the Caps' power play, and his past offensive numbers will lead to a high cap hit soon. This provides great insurance in case Carlson or Niskanen gets injured, so it's not bad, but I think that Faulk might have played about 50% more minutes than Bowey, so coming out with only one more point at even strength is quite underwhelming. Which one is actually bettter? I don't know. But I know which one is younger, and spent last year working on his defense under the Caps' new head coach's direction.

If Reirden doesn't want Bowey back, I think Bowey and a 2nd for Faulk would be about fair. Bowey and Burakovsky is an overpayment. Bowey outscored Haydn Fleury last year, in similar minutes, but with slightly less sheltered zone starts. He did just fine for a rookie, and I'm not worried about him.

Faulk was -26 last year. His team took 55% of the shots when he was on the ice, but he started 58% of his shifts ahead of the red line. That says he got caught pinching in too far, a lot, and gave up too many odd man rushes. I like the experience, and the minutes played, and the minutes per game. Obviously he's a very talented player, but Reirden is going to cut him to about 18 minutes, get Orlov to babysit him, and give him a list of things to work on so he isn't hurting the team's chances by giving up regular breakaways at evens. I mean, the guy's -109 in his career? I can see why Carolina would consider moving him. I don't think the price is right, here, but I'm not rejecting the idea.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2018 at 12:32 a.m.
Thread: MTL Fans- JT is not signing with you!!!
You mentioned the Galchenyuk for Domi trade as a specific reason for why the Tavares shouldn't go to the habs so this is what I will discuss.

The Domi trade actually makes signing Tavares more realistic than ever for Montreal if you take the cap situation into consideration (and assuming they don't blow the Domi contract.) Galchenyuk makes $4.9M and was set to become a UFA in 2 years. If they sign Tavares (at say $12M), they would have a real hard time resigning Galchenyuk with 30 other teams competing to sign him. Meanwhile with Domi, they can either lock him up for 5 or 6 years at around $3.75M (which adds over $1M in cap space over the next two years in comparison to Galchenyuk) or they could bridge him and don't have to worry about his next contract because Domi is an RFA for 4 more years. This deal sets Montreal up perfectly to sign Tavares actually (just need to convince him to join Montreal - see BBM's post on reasons he might).

Lastly Domi and Galchenyuk both have a career point per game of (0.61), this is a fair deal straight up - both teams are taking a risk it's up to the players to realize their potential.