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BigAl6884

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Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsThu. at 9:56 a.m.
Thread: im just a squid
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>I dont expect him to get traded at all personally. I think he walks. And I think the contract he receives from whoever signs him with show that all these people ragging on him have no idea what they are talking about. The question is, when a second NHL GM, from a totally different team, comes along and gives him 11-12 million again long term. Will everyone come back and admit they were wrong? Or will they still believe they know more about hockey then the entire management group of multiple NHL franchises.
They are all walking around right now under the belief that its just the Leafs screwing up. And that everyone else in the world see Marner for "what he really is"...
We will see about that.</div></div>


It all depends on where Marner goes. Whether he gets traded or walks away as a UFA, the team that he goes to may already have an established hierarchy of player contracts. Take Tampa Bay for example. Their top players make $9.5M/yr. Unless your name is McDavid or Draisaitl, you are not coming in and asking for more than Kucherov or Point. A team like Vegas has set players up to take a bit less to play on a competitive team. It seems everyone gets surprised when they have been able to resign free agents for less than what is expected. They do this because they don't want to piss off the guys they already have on the team.
Compare that to the Leafs situation. Marner will probably not ask for AM money, but you can bet that he finds himself just as valuable as Nylander. So, he will ask for that contract and maybe a little bit more. It may be ego, but it is standard when you resign with a team.

Marner may surprise us all and sign with a team like San Jose and just take the most money he can get and not worry about being competitive. I have a feeling that if he leaves the Leafs, he will want to go to a team that has a chance to make it out of the second round and be able to show Leaf Nation that he can contribute to a winner and its not his fault that his team is not winning.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsJun. 5 at 12:59 p.m.
Thread: Marner to Vegas
I don't think Marner would have an issue with going to Vegas. They are a perennial contender and they have some high end talent to play with. The issue that would make this tougher from the Vegas standpoint is that you would be taking 3 players that fit well into their system and replacing all that cap space with one player (have to do it to make the cap work for this trade). Now, they will have to scramble to fill 2 spots with minimum contracts. Not only that, they also have to give up a couple of first rounders?

Again, the location would probably be a place that Marner would waive his NMC to go to. I just don't see Vegas kneecapping themselves.

They can revisit a deal for Marner when Stone/Eichel or whoever else goes on LTR before the deadline and they have cap room until the end of the season. LOL
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsJun. 3 at 1:45 a.m.
Thread: The Real Nashville Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>You havent explained why its a discount though is the point. Who are the other 21g fwds signing 7m deals right now? Its not a discount. 5-6m is fair price for that. Both Hyman and Bunting both got right around 5 for playing the exact same role Bert is playing, and they went to the open market.</div></div>

When you sign a player, you are not signing him to a multi-year contract and pay him for his last season. You are paying for what is expected his production to be during that duration.

For example, Hyman was offered the contract by the Oilers because they saw him as a player worth $5.5M/yr for an extended contract. At the time, the Leafs liked Hyman, but did not see him worth that based on his current production. The Oilers could see what the Leafs couldn't and had the perfect slot for him next to McDavid. With the cap going up, with Tavares coming off the books next year (or at the very least resigned at a lower avg), Bert will see an opportunity to ask for more. That is why I can see him asking for $6.5 to $7M per season for at least 4 years.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMay 30 at 6:07 p.m.
Thread: MARNER
So, the Blues trade for Marner and start offloading veterans and hope that they build a decent team around Marner. Meanwhile, you are expecting Marner to want to sign with a team that is going to rebuild?

If I am signing with a new team, do I want to be the highest paid player on a team that is not going anywhere for the next while? Or, as my UFA rite, do I sign with a team that has the ability to compete for a Cup now?

To go along with that idea, if I am Marner, why should I be the one to give the Leafs a huge hometown discount? When they just gave Nylander a huge contract? There is pride at play here too. I might be willing to give that discount to the tune of $11M/year (less than Nylander, a small increase over his current salary cap hit) But, I know that if the Leafs came to me and asked for me to take $10M or less per year, it would have to be for at least an extra 3 or 4 seasons (not sure what max is, but if its only $10M/ year, it might have to be for 10 years)
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMay 30 at 5:24 p.m.
Thread: The Real Nashville Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>Hence the Marner trade talks.
Bert scored 30 goals, and then took a 1 year deal for 5.5m
Now he has a season where he only scores 21 goals playing with Matthews, and you think he will want want to jump from 5.5 to 7? For being a worse player? lol Seems like a stretch to me.</div></div>


Being a UFA, he has the option to go anywhere he wants. Do you not think that there is not other team that is willing to give Bert that $6-$7M per year for at least 3 years? Sure, he enjoyed playing with the Leafs and is willing to listen. But, I would not expect a home town discount from a player that played one year in Toronto. To accept a million or two per year is a lot to give up. Especially, if he signs with a tax friendly team.

July 1st will be interesting. It will be up to the Leafs to decide whether or not to let Bert (and Domi) get there without signing them first.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMay 29 at 5:39 p.m.
Thread: The Real Nashville Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>Thats why the league has RFAs vs UFAs. So guys cant force huge numbers. Gives teams who draft players the ability to have them at reasonable numbers for reasonable amounts of time. You think Domi, at 9 goals in a season, in his prime at 29, playing with Matthews as his center, is going to be worth MORE at 34? lol He can go ahead and sign his 4x4 for 16 ending at 34. IF he is even able to play anymore at that age. You think he will be able to make up the other 4m that my contract offer gives him before he is forced to retire because his body gives out or he is no longer a viable player? lol More likely he will be worth 750000 scoring 2 goals a year on someone's 4th line at 34. Struggling to find a find a team who is willing to offer him 1 year deals at a time. Wondering how he could be so stupid as to turn down the Leafs offer.
Same as Bert. Sure, maybe some desperate bottom feeder comes along and offers him 6x4 for 24m. And he will be 34 when it ends. Desperately trying to get one year deals from teams. Moving from city to city every year. Trying to convince teams he is worth 1m a year. Or he could stay on a contender. Be a fan favorite for signing a team friendly deal. End his career in TO. Maybe win a cup. And take a 4.5mx8 deal. Make 32m in 8 years. Instead of 24m in 4. And try to scrounge for work trying to find a way to make up that last 8m with a broken down body in Columbus or some other nothing team nobody cares about lol</div></div>

I guess we will see what the number is that Domi signs at. The Leafs have a habit of either over paying someone because they are a fan favourite or letting go of someone because they don't fit in the budget.

Whenever anyone goes into negotiations, they always ask for more than what they were paid the year before. Is $6M enough of a raise for Bert? I am going to guess it might be closer to $7M if he signs for 4 years.

All of this is going to be dependent on whether they got rid themselves of some salary with some moves. The Leafs only have $19M to resign these two, a 1B goalie to play along side Woll, and 5 others. Not much left to make a splash in the UFA market.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMay 29 at 1:18 p.m.
Thread: Marner to Minny
It will take some time for the Leafs to reset, but will they? If you look at most of the better teams, if they have 4 or 5 high end contracts, they are spread out (forwards, defense, goal). At one point or another, Tavares was worth his contract. In hindsight, they wanted to make a splash and bring home a guy to lead the team. Problem is, that they did not consider the younger talent coming up and the contracts that those players were going to command. It is easy to ask for more when you are outperforming a guy that makes over $10M and ask for at least that much to stay.

The GM has a difficult job. You need to improve the team and sign a free agent. However, signing that free agent will cause a ripple effect within your own team. There may be room now, but if there are a couple of key free agents coming up soon, will there be cap space available to retain them?

The path forward is quite clear for the Leafs. They have 2 high end salaries that are set to expire a year from now. The current set up does not work, so you can't go forward with the same structure. You might be able to re-sign JT to a cheap contract, but at this point, it shouldn't be more than $5M for a year. Anything more or longer term, it would wise to just let him walk. As for Marner, he will be interesting. He was given a NMC in his previous deal, which gives him some control over where he goes. As much as fans want to see him gone, he has to be happy with the destination. Considering he is a hometown kid, he would be hard pressed to consider signing long term in an unfamiliar city unless the situation is right for him. That could be a team that is competing for a Cup, a tax-free state, or maybe players that he wants to play with.

Everyone sees the idea of sitting him in the press box until he is willing to waive his NMC. Once you play hardball like that, there is no turning back. How does that look for future free agents that are looking to sign in Toronto? It shows that a NMC is not worth it. Players/agents negotiate for that so that they have some say when it comes to a trade (just like Marner has now). He may see the writing on the wall, but he doesn't have to accept going to an undesireable place. Let's say the Leafs play hardball and he caves in. Do you think he will sign a long term deal with that new club ahead of time? Not likely under those circumstances. Not until he gets a feel for the new surroundings and is happy with the balance of playing and living in his new city. To go along with all of this, what is Marner worth as a rental? Because, that is essentially what he will be. The Leafs could add some sort of future considerations clause into a trade that would add a first round draft pick if he resigns to a long term deal. What is Marner worth as a rental? He is not going to get you a couple of high end young players that other teams are building around. If Marner is traded to a contender, then they will need to make cap space to get him in the line up. That means taking salary back (but, maybe getting some draft capital as well). Do you really want to take much salary back? Unless it is in a position of need and the player coming back can still help you.

In conclusion, don't expect a big haul for Marner! If he is forced to waive his NMC, I doubt he will sign a long term deal with a new team unless they throw an absurd contract at him. It may be pennies on the dollar, but I would ask for draft capital and if you can possibly pry either a serviceable third or fouth line player, or maybe a decent prospect or two, Otherwise, play out the 2024-25 season, give a reasonable contract offer or let him walk.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMay 29 at 10:16 a.m.
Thread: The Real Nashville Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>Is there evidence to support that? What other players who play on teams of the Leafs caliper, play on lines with guys like Matthews, Marner, JT and Nylander all year, and only score 9 goals for the season, are making 5m dollars? He did not play 3rd and 4th line mins. He played top 6 mins most of the season. Many of which were with Matthews as his center.
Do you have any evidence that anyone offered him 4-5m on a multi year deal last year?
I would suggest that if he were to start negotiations today with any American city team, on a 4+ year contract, that his number would come in under 4 still. In fact, if Im TO, I'm going in to that negotiation with the suggestion he did not earn his 3m last year. Thats the kind of attitude TO needs to start taking in order to combat the huge disadvantage the team is at with regards to the tax margins.
If Im TO, i would let him know we are interested, but let him listen to offers. Then I would see if we can beat the highest offer by spreading the total dollars out over 8 years. If someone offers him 4x4, thats 16m ending at 34 years old. He will be worthless by then. Id offer him 2.5 x 8. Thats 20m. Keeps him in TO to end his career. Gets 4m more dollars total. And after Matthews contract ends in 4 years, the Leafs will likely be in rebuild anyways. So who cares if you are carrying a 36 or 37 year old Domi at that point. Makes no difference. Id do the same with Bert. Low cap hits. Long time.</div></div>

If I was the player/agent, if the team did not want to offer a contract from the start, why would I give them a chance to spread things out over more years? If I can get my $16M in 4 years, I still have the chance to sign another contract after that for a couple million per year. Or, he bets on himself again, signs another short contract for say $5M and wait for the cap to keep going up. To sign long term for only $2.5M would tell me that I would not be worth the same as even Reeves.
In other words, the Leafs will only have guys making $2- $3M / year as restricted free agents. As soon as they are done with their contracts, they will look elsewhere. Think of Hyman. The Leafs figured that he was not worth the $5M cap hit per year and let him walk. They will find the same when someone like Knies comes up. He has shown that he can play. He will look at comparables around the league and ask for at least $4.5 (at his current rise in play). Can the Leafs pay that? Or, is that another guy you lose?
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMay 27 at 1:38 p.m.
Thread: The Real Nashville Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>depends on how you look at it. To me, it shows the rest of the players in the league the team is serious about winning. The Leafs have been caving in to player demands for too long. If they dont start putting their foot down for the sake of winning, nobody will ever take them seriously. And they will just keep using them as a bank. Look what we are hearing about Domi now. He is asking for between 5 and 6? Thats solely because he took a 1 year deal in TO to get his name out there in the league. Every player who comes here thinks that just wearing the jersey means they are all of a sudden superstars and deserve more. Thats gotta stop. I think if they want to attract the right players. Ones who are serious about winning. They need to make smart contract decisions. And if it means a bunch of pre madonna's walk to FA. Then so be it.</div></div>

Domi took a hometown discount to play for a team that his dad played for. The Domi name is huge in Toronto. He gave them a discount for a year, but does not feel like he needs to give it to them long term. He could have made 4-5M on a multi year deal elsewhere last year.. For the most part, he played third and fourth line minutes through the year. But, he showed his worth in the playoffs when called upon to play on the top line with Matthews (due to injuries).

Who knows, maybe they will find another free agent or two that will sign for a year at below their going rate (just to play in Toronto). But, everyone knows that if they want to play there, they might get paid until Marner and Tavares come off the books (or get signed to a much lower cap hit long term)
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMay 27 at 1:15 p.m.
Thread: Marner to Minny
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>Ok. Well let me know when EK ever sees 10m or more a year lol
You think you know more about player value than professional GMs in the NHL? lol
Marner will not be signing his next contract with TO.
So when he does, and its for twice what EK makes, you remember you said that EK is worth more. Call up that teams GM and let them know you know more about player value than them lol
That a 60pt player is more valuable than a 100+ point player lol
WOW</div></div>


Not sure if the issue is who the better player is here. I believe that if you were just ranking the two players, Marner comes out on top. The issue is the cap. Marner is just not worth $12M/year in cap space. Ek, on the other hand is well placed with his cap hit. He has a great two way game and he won't break the bank when trying to get all the pieces to fit. This is the exact reason a trade like this is put out there. The Leafs need to find a way to get more players like Ek in their system and get rid of a Marner (and Tavares) due to cap restraints. By spending so much on 4 forwards and one defenceman (including Reilly in here), the Leafs are forced to fill in the rest of their roster with low income earners. Guys that need to play above their pay grade to make them successful. Problem is that when you do find a guy that does that, what do you do when their contract is due? Can't expect them to keep playing for peanuts. They only fit in the system when they are low cost. That is what happened when Hyman was a free agent. The Leafs were not willing to pay him what he had earned by playing hard for minimal pay. Now, they wish they had him at the $5M cap hit.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMay 14 at 12:30 a.m.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMay 13 at 4:36 p.m.
Thread: Minimum it would cost Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>Thats even worse. The point of moving Marner is for cap space. If you take all that space up in return, you gain nothing. The best move for TO in a Marner trade is to bring back as little money as possible in the move.</div></div>

Problem is that Marner has to sign off on where he goes. That is why he negotiated his NMC. He wanted to stay (and probably still does) Just because everyone wants to run him out of town does not mean that he will go to any team to help the Leafs with their cap situation. Any team that does trade for him will want to negotiate with him to see if they can sign him long term too. Teams won't give up good quality players (making less) just to rent Marner for a season and let him walk next summer.