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CaseyFlyman

Member Since
Sep. 7, 2018
Favourite Team
Columbus Blue Jackets
2nd Favourite Team
Boston Bruins
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Forum: Mock-DraftTue. at 3:37 p.m.
Thread: Top 5 teams…who do you want?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ItsDuckSeason</b></div><div>I can't speak for the other teams, but Anaheim needs a RHD, <strong>not a LHD, but a right-handed defenceman</strong>. I think ANA's main target is Artyom Levshunov. If Levshunov is off the board, then they could potentially reach for Zayne Parekh or potentially Carter Yakemchuk if ANA prefers size over skill. If Anaheim gets caught in an awkward situation where Artyom Levshunov is off the board and they don't want to reach for a RHD. They could select either Ivan Demidov or Cayden Lindstrom. :)</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Same with Chicago. RHD is a gap as well as top 6 forwards, but LHD is stacked already so very unlikely Chicago would consider LHD even though Silayev is a stud</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GDubb2Shiesty</b></div><div>With Ottawa in the same position, Parekh at 3 wouldn't be a reach. Guy could go 2nd and it wouldn't surprise me I think his upside is ridiculous.</div></div>

Honestly, same for Columbus. Jiricek is the only RHD prospect in the system that looks like he could crack the NHL anytime soon, or be a top-4 option. The issue is we already have a ton of offensive-minded D (Werenski, Mateychuk, Boqvist, Severson, Bean), so someone like Parekh or Dickinson doesn't really fill the need.

I'd like to see another center prospect, a top-flight winger, or a shutdown/dominant RHD, and this draft has a ton of good options.

In order of personal preference:
1. Celebrini
2. Levshunov
3. Demidov
4. Lindstrom
5. Catton
6. Yakemchuk

We'd be guaranteed to have at least one of those guys on the board by the time we pick, and I'd be very happy with any of them. Even if we take a LHD like Dickinson or Silayev, I wouldn't be mad.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 1:10 p.m.
Thread: Could the Jackets trade Gaudreau
To summarize more quickly than <a href="/users/squashmaple" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@squashmaple</a>, whose reply is comprehensive: no, absolutely not.

Even if Columbus had an appetite to move him, you'd have to convince JG to waive a full NMC which he took presumably to have stability, which is going to be a no.

Shipping out the biggest UFA the franchise has ever landed 2 years in with 5 years remaining because "oh boo hoo bad team in a retool is bad" is such a bad look/loser mentality. We're probably no more than 2 years away from actually competing if we just hold and play our cards right.

He's happy. He's fine. He'll still be a significant part of the team in a couple years when the majority of the players on the roster actually have a fully-developed prefrontal cortex.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 10:14 a.m.
Thread: Leafs 2024-25
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Colton_Bernard</b></div><div>Dude it’s hypothetical if Marner waives his No Trade Clause and signs and extension then that is exactly what he is worth. He is one of the best wingers in the game, just because he is having a rough playoffs isn’t going to hurt his value.</div></div>

He can be one of the best wingers in the game and still have a rough playoffs that hurts his value.

I think the biggest thing is the NMC, that's not something players waive carte blanche. The SDP told a story about the Kaberle trade, where he had a full NTC. Burke told his agent he wanted to trade Kaberle, his agent told him to f*** off, and Burke told him "I didn't sign him to that deal, he'll sit in the pressbox until he waives".

Kaberle gave him a list of Boston...and that's it. If you hand out a NMC/NTC, you're telling the player they get to dictate exactly where they go. That's exactly why Tarasenko went for so little at the TDL. That's exactly what Marner will do.

Now that said, he's still going to fetch a nice return (1st, good prospect, and maybe more if he agrees to an extension too), but 1) that team absolutely isn't going to be Columbus, and 2) that prospect isn't going to be Jiricek-caliber, let alone Jiricek + Voronkov caliber.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 3:51 p.m.
Thread: Idea I Saw On Twitter
"instead of using 18 million on 2 players, they invest in 4 solid players that fill different positions of need, all with term"

Why stop there? Instead of using 18 million on 2 players, use it on 10 players; 5 Ryan Reaves and 5 David Kampfs. Insane depth!

I get there's nuance, and I'm not a Toronto fan/Pens fan, and the idea isn't actually bad, but I don't think Pittsburgh is the team to involve here. Graves had a terrible year, he's a good player but I don't know that he ever lives up to that contract. Jarry is a very expensive goaltender with tons of term for extremely average results. Rakell and Smith are solid middle-6 guys, but neither are worth their contracts, and both have term.

Toronto's forward core would still be fine, but now they're lacking more scoring talent and still have obscene question marks at goalie and defense, and no extra cap space to address those issues. If TML are moving Marner, it's got to be for a couple higher-quality pieces that are likely on good deals. The target should be a contending team with a little bit of cap space looking to upgrade the forward group. Detroit, Seattle, St. Louis, Nashville, etc. are all likely better options.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 2:40 p.m.
Thread: Caps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>cap dump means you dump a sizable amount of cap? now CBJ doesnt need to dump cap but if they would rather use that space on other things it would make sense. Most id risk on Laine would be 2 2nd round picks but he hasnt played a full season in what 3-4 years?</div></div>

Cap dump means you shed a sizeable amount of cap in order to remain cap-compliant/make additional moves and stay cap compliant. Otherwise it's just a salary/money shed. If anything it's a salary dump for a small-market/small-budget team, but it's not a cap dump since we're going to have no shortage of cap space. It's semantics, but I'll live and die on that hill.

The whole team is young RFAs who are going to get cheaper bridge deals until we know what they are, so we don't really need the space to go out and sign, say, a Stamkos or Marchessault. There's not really any option other than wait for the new core to develop, otherwise it's more random stars without a supporting cast.

If you're only willing to risk 2 2nds, it doesn't make sense for us. We've got plenty of picks and prospects. We need high-end talent, and it's more logical to keep the 26-year-old winger who has shown that ability as recently as last season. (And he played 46/56 games in 2020-21 btw; only 107/1019 players, or 10.5% of the league, played a "full season" of 82 or more games this year).
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 12:46 p.m.
Thread: Not a leafs fan but some ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Viqsi</b></div><div>Well, with that Marner offer we're now into semisane prices, but it's still not one the Jackets would be all that willing to pay. He's just not needed or particularly wanted here and the feeling seems mutual - yes, Kekalainen was looking into an offer sheet, but 1) the sheet was not signed by Marner, 2) that was Kekalainen and he doesn't work here anymore, and 3) we've since signed Gaudreau for that role.</div></div>

And Laine. The Laine trade was post-offer sheet as well. That's not the same role, but it is another top-6 winger making $8M+.

In the summer of 2019, Columbus was in the process of losing Panarin and Duchene, and the top forwards on the team were Foligno, Bjorkstrand, Atkinson, and Josh Anderson. You could see why we would have been interested...and how times have changed...
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 12:38 p.m.
Thread: Gambling on Laine
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Viqsi</b></div><div>"Not the greatest hockey trade for CBJ, but it does free up a lot of money on their cap."

As that is not a priority for the Jackets, the motivation to do this is nonexistent.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Friendly_Cannon</b></div><div>I will say that A getting a first round pick back and B dumping Elvis is a pretty good incentive.
I love laine but I worry that if he doesn’t bounce back we are gonna get nothing out of him value wise that will help the long term of this team.</div></div>

I actually kind of agree here, except I don't think his value can go much lower...even if he has another year like this one, we should get a similar return if we move him half-retained as a rental.

Laine with CBJ is a paradox: we have to assume he's the top-line winger he has been when healthy, which gives him value in a trade; yet acquiring teams have to assume he's the oft-injured liability, which tanks his trade value. Since Columbus has plenty of cap space, he's not a cap dump, and there's no incentive to dump him for less; but for a small-market team with plenty of wingers to fill that role, the roster and cash flexibility is an asset. All is true at the same time.

I think this trade balances out pretty well, and there's definitely no incentive to move Laine for less. You move two players that probably need a change, get a 1st back, and don't retain any cap. Laine probably rebounds under an amazing coach and pots 40 per year for the next decade.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 7:31 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 7:30 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 12:42 p.m.
Thread: Big Changes Needed for 2024-2025
So the "big changes", "actual re-tool" is moving one key piece and returning the vast majority of the current roster?

You can probably move Kampf, but at his term/AAV, it's as a cap dump. Teams know the Leafs need the space and want to move him, so they're probably not giving up assets for him. You might be able to move him to a contender if you attach a 6th or 7th, and you might get a 6th or 7th for Timmins (who's also an overpaid 7/8D).

Marner is going to be...tough. If that's the piece Toronto decides to move, he's either dictating exactly where he goes with his NMC (a la Tarasenko) or you're sending him to a team as a pure rental. I think that return would be incredibly disappointing.

TML aren't moving Matthews (obviously), Nylander (with a new extension), Tavares (again, full NMC and no one is taking that deal right now), or Reilly (full NMC, best D-man, and 6 years to go). Honestly, I don't see a way to revamp this team without taking a massive loss on trade value, the best chance is moving auxiliary pieces and signing upgrades.

The time to make changes was last offseason, pre-NMC for Marner/pre-Nylander extension/pre-Matthews extension. Shanahan was resolute in saying no. Now you're stuck. Toronto had better hope firing Shanahan/Keefe/Treliving and overhauling the roster outside of the big five is enough.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26 at 12:02 p.m.
Thread: Why dont all teams do like Vegas and Tampa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>Because very few teams can make the playoffs while missing some of their best players for months on end? Why didn't NJ LITR Hughes this year and activate him for the playoffs? Why didn't Detroit just LTIR Larkin until the playoffs? Thompson was injured for a lot of the year, why didn't Buffalo just hold him out so they were fresh for the first round?

I have no love for Tampa or Vegas, but I really don't understand what's so hard for so many people to grasp. You're only getting a significant advantage as a team if your higher-dollar (read: "better") players are sitting out for significant stretches of the regular season <em>and</em> you spend significant assets to backfill those players' salaries with other (also good) players, usually as rentals.

So sure, any team that's good enough to walk into the playoffs now while missing huge pieces of the roster, while also mortgaging their long-term future to replace those players short-term, can easily replicate what Tampa and Vegas are doing. <em> It's just such an obvious loophole! </em></div></div>

And to further the discussion: what's the solution if it's actually that much of a problem?

1. LTIR players aren't eligible for the first round? Ok, so now teams get a boost for the 2nd round if they're good enough to get through the 1st? It's kicking the can down the road.
2. LTIR players aren't eligible for the playoffs? I'm sure the NHL will love seeing healthy star players sidelined during their highest-viewership games. The owners will love that.
3. Games Played requirements to be eligible for the playoffs? See #2, but with the added player-safety risk of rushing actually injured players back.
4. LTIR slots? (As in, each team only gets one or two LTIR players back for the playoffs). Most teams only use one anyway, so it's just preventing teams from <em>really</em> abusing the system.
5. Playoff Cap? Again, I think this leads to player safety issues of people playing injured, while adding complex roster gymnastics, in a way that doesn't feasibly solve the issue.

Players get hurt, and players come back. If the NHL has an independent medical team auditing injuries, the timelines make sense, and the owners don't have a huge issue with it...I just don't think we'll see a a change anytime soon.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26 at 11:51 a.m.
Thread: Why dont all teams do like Vegas and Tampa
Because very few teams can make the playoffs while missing some of their best players for months on end? Why didn't NJ LITR Hughes this year and activate him for the playoffs? Why didn't Detroit just LTIR Larkin until the playoffs? Thompson was injured for a lot of the year, why didn't Buffalo just hold him out so they were fresh for the first round?

I have no love for Tampa or Vegas, but I really don't understand what's so hard for so many people to grasp. You're only getting a significant advantage as a team if your higher-dollar (read: "better") players are sitting out for significant stretches of the regular season <em>and</em> you spend significant assets to backfill those players' salaries with other (also good) players, usually as rentals.

So sure, any team that's good enough to walk into the playoffs now while missing huge pieces of the roster, while also mortgaging their long-term future to replace those players short-term, can easily replicate what Tampa and Vegas are doing. <em> It's just such an obvious loophole! </em>