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Chigurrhh

Chiggy
Member Since
May 30, 2017
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Pittsburgh Penguins
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2022 at 6:37 p.m.
Thread: This team needs a revamp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>You're preaching to the choir, bud lol. It's frustrating. On one hand we're glad JR isn't selling off every last piece that we have, but Hextall is the polar opposite. I'm fine with him being stingy, but if he wants to keep this team competitive it's going to cost him.

You may not believe it, but on more than a few interviews, both radio and print last season he said our 1st and 2nd rounders are off-limits and went on to say our prospects are as well, but he'd be willing to part with some if the right deal presented itself, so what I'm telling you isn't hearsay. I can't imagine he doesn't budge on moving a 2nd if it comes to landing the right player, but it doesn't seem like the 1sts are even a thought.</div></div>

Yeah, I know what they are saying in interviews and stuff. But here's why I think it might not really be the case this season:

Last season, they honestly thought they might have to rebuild the team in the offseason. It turns out the team was good enough to win the division. Burke and Hextall ended up giving up two thirds (condiitonal 2nd and conditional 3rd when the trade happened) to bring in Carter. It wasn't a crazy deadline buy but it showed they were willing to do more than they talked about during the season.

The talk about prioritizng the future has really died down given how the roster has performed this season. Burke occasionally talks about not wanting to give up futures or whatever but the language is less strong. The main stated priority seems to be re-signing the team's free agents and make it work with the cap next year.

The excuse both Burke and Hextall are now using when asked about the trade deadline is the cap. It's honestly kind of bull**** because we have seen teams do things every year to make this work. Getting another team to take or retain salaries is one example. They also say things like "we like this team and don't want to subtract from it" or whatever. But even Burke when asked about Kapanen last week, said that he needs to play better. That's an obvious guy that can be moved.

I would also add that these guys weren't the ones that traded for Zucker, Kapanen, and even P.O Joseph. They also weren't the ones that drafted Poulin and Legare. New regimes often aren't that interested in keeping players from the old ones. That's something to keep an eye on.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 20, 2022 at 4:31 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 15, 2022 at 12:34 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 15, 2022 at 12:30 p.m.
Thread: Embracing the Elderly
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>it really is not.
You can say the exact opposite of everything you just said.
Did you listen to Burke talk about trading?
He was blunt, trading away 1sts doesn't make sense for teams. He said that, openly. This is the view of the NHL today. Less and less teams are willing to make that move on a rental.
When it does happen, it's instantly a poor move, Foglino last year. Teams are more and more conscious of this. Deals including 1sts are deals with term on players more and more.
That is the trend of the NHL.
You can say every team there wants to make a move. Every move you make drives up the cost. Does DAL really want to take back bad cap especially if it's with term?
These teams really don't have a ton of cap space. A lot of teams aren't really looking to be involved in retaining. Look at AZ, everyone pins them as a retaining team, but AZ would rather retain and dump Kessel.
This is really a question in the end for supply and demand. We can look at the teams you are talking about there who actually can open up space. TOR is a good example, sure TOR can open up space, but are they going to go after Pavs, who I don't think would play for TOR to be honest, OR are they going to go after defense?
CGY made their move already. VGK did too. TB who are they moving out, look at the roster there and tell me? That's a joke to think TB is moving a player out. COL probably not trading with DAL.
CAR, FL, maybe PIT. Those are your real options. PIT openly said, they aren't paying that. You got two teams there. CAR and FL. CAR doesn't really have a bad player to move, maybe Staal but he's the kind of guy you want for the playoffs. And DAL would have to carry that cap next year. So you got FL who could move out Hornqvist, but they too are probably looking at defense.

Down the line here. The demand is not what you think it is. What is available on the market is also strong. He's not getting the return you want him to. I'm pretty sure you can realize that.</div></div>

Every year Burke would complain about the deadline having too many trades. Yet, it would still happen and then he would complain about it.

Arizona only has one retention spot left (which will be Kessel when he's traded). They are already retaining on OEL and Kuemper. Arizona isn't the team to look for in these deals. The thing is though that playoff lines are more clear this year than most. The East is already decided. The Sabres, Ducks, Red Wings, Blue Jackets, Devils, and Kraken are all out of the playoffs and have plenty of cap space to to use in deals. Nashville will make the playoffs and still have cap room to make one of these deals and get assets.

CGY is by all accounts, going to make another move. So the notion that one move and they are done is silly.

Who would Vegas move out? Every time they have the chance, they move out roster players and try to upgrade. Tuch in the Eichel trade. Schmidt after getting Pietrangelo. In this case, Dadonov is simply not as good as Pavelski, Giroux, etc, and is a contract they would be willing to move.

Tampa? They can just LTIR it again to make room for someone. There are a ton of cap moves that teams can make to add to their teams. Don't buy for one second the "we don't have cap room excuse." Even in the Penguins case, Zucker has been injured all season and just had core muscle surgery. They could easily keep him on LTIR until the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 15, 2022 at 3:36 a.m.
Thread: Embracing the Elderly
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>1st, it's not about what your PPG is, it's about what the options are. Demand creates value.
2nd He controls that path. Honestly, We can both look at playoff brackets and pick teams that have better "math" of making it to the 2nd round. That's how Vegas works.
So you end up with a guy who is 37. really think he's going to ANA or LA?
I'm pretty sure at 37 with no cup, the only reason for him to join in a playoff run is to have a high chance of success. Otherwise what is the point. Play 2 weeks and go home. He doesn't need to make that kind of move at 37.
So you can limit that move to a hand full of teams. A lot of them are close to the cap if not over. Which is bringing down the demand market.
So this idea there is going to be a huge bidding was driving up the price on a 37 year old, is insane. especially from a Pens team that is openly saying, 1sn and 2nd off the table and prospect pool off limits.
How many teams do you really think are out there at this point making those kind of offers above on a 37 year old rental. Talk about insane.
Even CGY didn't pay that much for a younger player scoring a lot of goals with 3 playoff years worth of term.
So lets be more open and honest about what an expected value is here. I don't think you're going to see what you think you are going to see here.
I'd say if you look at the best teams in every division right now. TB no cap, VGK no cap, COL, little cap, but they have other options, CAR again little cap space.
These aren't exactly the building blocks of great demand on a guy. What are you're next to teams there. PIT, doesn't want to give anything up, FL. ok maybe.
That's really it. You look at the west, maybe CGY, but they have no cap. MIN is a young team, lost of players under 25, don't see them making that kind of move and paying a lot.
I'm sorry, I just don't see the market here that's going to give something like that up.
Fact is there are a handful of teams I think he'd really consider that can actually afford him in the cap. I think the choice is going to be his if he wants it, and I don't think they are gong to pay anything close to what you think for it. It's a buyers market.</div></div>

Every single year there is a player with a high cap hit, high production, and trade protection. Every year they go for a first+ and teams find ways to fit them in the cap either by trading away players or getting multiple teams to retain. Every single year there are teams at the cap that make these moves. Every year, we see older players without cups, go to playoff teams and chase cups.

Vegas also had "No cap" when they acquired Eichel. Didn't seem to stop them. Last season, both Tampa and Toronto got third teams involved in trades to end up with only 25% of the player's cap hit. Every single team you listed with "no cap" has a contract or two they wouldn't mind trading. Many of them will have players injured by the time the deadline comes. Every year, it seems like there are only going to be a few teams buying in February, and then at the deadline, every playoff team adds players.

It's like you are intentionally ignoring all of this to come to your conclusion.

A carter-like return is insanely low for one of the best players in the league this year, and I'm pretty sure you know that.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 14, 2022 at 11:20 p.m.
Thread: Embracing the Elderly
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>Those trades are awful for pit.
Pavs is going to control his future. He's not going to just any team. Why would a 37 year old go to a team that's probably out in round 1 or 2.

That means this list is much shorter. Most of those teams have 0 cap, aka VGK, TB, etc...
The return on him won't be high, and I wouldn't expect the pens to give up more than what they gave up for Carter.</div></div>

Pavelski, this season, is over a point per game player and a great play driver. Carter was a sub .5 PPG player with bad underlying numbers in LA. How can you possibly think those values would be similar? That's just insane.

Also, every playoff team is more likely than not, going to be out by round 1 or 2. That's how the math works.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 13, 2022 at 4:37 p.m.
Thread: My Deadline Plans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>He also has a xGF% of 51.49 which is higher than Letang and Dumoulin which is significant. Having a shutdown dman who is going to put up over 30 points with an XGF% more than Letang and Dumoulin? He also has a higher HDCF% of 51.45, also higher than Letang and Dumo, so when he's on the ice he's helping to generate more high danger chances.

Dmen like this who are still developing are NOT easy to to get and lock in at his cost. So yeah, do your homework.</div></div>

He's not developing. He's developed. He is what he is and will be turning 25 this season. Do homework on aging curves.

And if you want more homework, Dom Luszczyszyn's model has him as a $4.0 million player, which is perfectly fine. The problem is that his cap hit is $4.4 million. Again, he's nothing special.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 12, 2022 at 10:25 p.m.
Thread: My Deadline Plans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>Dude, you need to do a little more homework on Marino.</div></div>

No, I don't.

This is him as a rookie.

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/aOEuA6j.png" alt="aOEuA6j.png">


This is him this season.

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/4n6HKB0.png" alt="4n6HKB0.png">

Basically, he's a solid shutdown guy that kills offense. Just watch him with the puck in the offensive zone. Occasionally, he will get the confidence to make a move and it works but usually, he's just doing nothing. The issue with him is that the contract that was signed with the expectation that he would improve from his great rookie year is now not looking as good since his offensive game has regressed.

Rutherford thought he would grow into a number 1 D. He simply doesn't have the offensive game to do that. He's nothing special.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 29, 2022 at 1:35 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 29, 2022 at 1:10 p.m.
Thread: Kapanen Zadina
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Honestly would prefer to keep Zadina over Kapanen. Just makes more sense with where the team is. He plays a really good all around game, just doesn't put up points. I feel a player like Kapanen could be acquired fairly inexpensively and I would gamble on Zadina figuring it out.

Also if you are trading for Kapanen for Zadina you obviously feel Zadina is better or could provide more for the penguins.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Honestly would prefer to keep Zadina over Kapanen. Just makes more sense with where the team is. He plays a really good all around game, just doesn't put up points. I feel a player like Kapanen could be acquired fairly inexpensively and I would gamble on Zadina figuring it out.

Also if you are trading for Kapanen for Zadina you obviously feel Zadina is better or could provide more for the penguins.</div></div>

I'm just over Kapanen's nonsense and think players like Zadina should be moved to new places for a fresh start. He's obviously a depreciated asset and a complete lottery ticket.