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Hockey_Hippy

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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 8:19 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>This is the thing that's hard to convey to people.

We do NOT need salary cap flexibility by moving Parayko. It actually gives us less flexibility. Not only are we then needing to find a Defenseman who can play defensive zone draws strictly in matchup situations, we are also needing one that is comfortable doing so 25+ minutes a night. That's not asked of anyone in the league aside from Parayko, and in all reality, nobody could thrive under those circumstances. So what we then would have to do is find a 3rd pairing guy and get him and his partner hammered in for 20+ minutes a night, which effectively makes us 10 times worse.

What we need to do is gain cap flexibility by trading an expendable guy like Krug/Leddy/Faulk. Not the only pillar on defense we have. Pick 25 and Niemela isn't really worth the headache of trying to replace what probably cannot be replaced. 4-5 years down the road sure this trade will make things better for us. But it essentially puts us in a long term rebuild, which Armstrong has displayed reluctance (thus far) to do.</div></div>

Parayko currently ranks 34th among defensemen for TOI/GP at 23:15. By contrast Morgan Rielly is 9th at 24:59 and leads all defensemen with 21:41 in ES TOI/GP.

Your team needs to move on from the remnants of the core. It is aging out and Robert Thomas can't do everything. The Blues are now a team that no longer is a shoe in to make the playoffs year on year. This gives them three young players who will play for them within the year. Brodie is by no means the meat of the deal but needs to be included to make the numbers work from Toronto's end. No Brodie? No young guys. And you need those young guys more than you need Parayko.

Also keep in mind that next summer is going to feature a bumper crop of UFAs. Cap space is not a bad thing to have.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 12:34 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>Blocks are an awful way to evaluate defensive ability. All that it means is that he is on the ice while he is getting spammed with shots, and when the other numbers confirm that the team allows all these shots with him on the ice that shows that he is not preventing shots or chances. So when he is on the ice, his team gets hammered with shots, and most of them are from the home plate area close to the net.
He is the one allowing these shots and chances because he isnt stopping any offense.
The old quote about blocking shots is always relevant. It's like killing rats, killing a rat is good, but if you have to kill so many rats you have bigger issues</div></div>

It also does not show that he isn't preventing them either by forcing players to skate and skate and skate and then finally out of frustration let one loose right into his shinguards. You can see that two different ways.

Moneypuck has Parayko at 66.19 shot attempts against/60. Leddy is 69.14. Those two do the heavy lifting. What is revealing are the others: Scandella is 65.52, Faulk is 63.80, Krug is 59.29. All of these players do not face they level of opposition Parayko and Leddy do yet they are all within spitting distance of Parayko.

T.J. Brodie by contrast is 73.01.

I think Parayko would be just fine in Toronto.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 12:16 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juice</b></div><div>Ok...so I'm coming into this discussion as someone who was all for a Nylander-Parayko trade about 2-3 years ago. Actually...ever since watching the world cup of hockey and the NA Team with Rielly and Parayko paired together I've wanted Parayko to be a leaf.

Now...a lot has changed since then. The reality is that Parayko hasn't lived up to expectations ever since Pietrangelo left and he took on more responsibilities/ice time. He's far from being a bad defender...but he hasn't proven to me that he's a legit top pairing d-man on a competing team. Does that mean I don't want him anymore? No. I still hold a soft spot for him in my heart and am still intrigued to see what him and Rielly would look like on a regular basis.

But his contract is no longer aligned with what he's been bringing to the table (other than gobbling up minutes). The term is scarier than the cap hit given the risk and the fact he's now 30 so I don't think we can reasonably think his game will hit an upswing at any point...he kind of is what he is...and I'm not convinced he's a huge upgrade on Brodie...at least not for this year.

I think the trade value is pretty good, to be honest. I don't think the Blues are looking to get out from under Parayko's deal but I don't think you'd have to twist their arm with a prospect package like this. There's value and risk on both sides....for me, I'd consider something similar in the off season (acknowledging Brodie is a free agent)...I can get behind Parayko "replacing" brodie next year vs accepting he'd be an upgrade over Brodie for this year (if that makes any sense). I think our cap space and assets for this season would be better allocated towards adding to the right side and potentially bumping Brodie to 2nd pairing vs replacing him.</div></div>

First, I appreciate the well thought out and reasoned comment.

I feel that a lot of the sag in Parayko's numbers can be attributed to a combination of usage and the fact that over the past year the Blues have moved on from a good chunk of their defensively conscientious forwards without the younger guys picking up that slack. That would not be the case in Toronto. Their top two players are constantly in the Selke conversation and the other forwards follow their lead. The fact that they are 9-1-2 in their past 12 despite playing with half a blueline and now their back up goalie says as much.

As for Brodie, I've seen more inconsistency in his game this season than I have in years past, so I would see Parayko as an upgrade this year over Brodie, given the differences in their current situations.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 12:03 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>It is very funny that you're trying the "if he plays so much he cant be bad" thing when your team just fired the coach who plays him so much. Oh, and the fact that coaches, especially ones with not great rosters, often over play players significantly. Tyler bozak was the leafs 1C for years and he was never a 1C in his entire career.
But hey, you want stats? 41.3 cf% -10.6 corsi rel, 41.2 ff% -10.1 fenwick rel in all situations combined with 40% and -3 5v5 rel numbers, so no, he does not have that shot suppression thing with him.
The fact that he's so big and teams are murdering him in shots and chances is pretty bad</div></div>


Ok, first I tend to value raw data more than formulas derived from raw data because in the latter, while it gets reduced to a convenient single number, for that convenience you are letting someone else decide how much weight to apply to each piece of data.

With the blocks/60, that's pretty straightforward. This is how many blocks he has, this is the minutes he plays. Divide the blocks by 60. Easy.

As for the SC/HDSC keep in mind they more or less bury Parayko and Leddy in their own end in St. Louis far more than any other pairing Parayko is 214 defensive zone faceoffs, Leddy 202. No one else is above 174. And they get the top defensive assignments on a team that has decidedly been less than committed defensively up front this season. He's basically making the best of a bad situation where he is. How do you think anyone else on the St. Louis blueline holds up doing that? Do you think they come out with better numbers? I don't.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 11:39 a.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>Dude, just because you dont watch a player you shouldn't assume other people dont either</div></div>

But that's just it. I *do* watch. I *do* watch Niemela, Abruzzese, and Holmberg play 2 sometimes 3 times a week. I know exactly what they bring to the table. And I'm not one for hyperbole. If a player stinks it up on a given night, I say as much.

You want a comparable on Niemela? How about your own Justin Faulk? Once he fills out that's what he game looks like. He is the meat in this deal. Holmberg is a heavier Calle Jarnkrok. Out of the three Abruzzese probably has the least stick in him but if put on a line with a shooter, he can get them the puck. He projects to be similar to Alex Kerfoot but with a more offensive skew.

Faulk has been a #1 in the past. Both Jarnkrok and Kerfoot cycled up and down the lineup regularly with Toronto. They are both real plug and play types that compliment anyone. That is who you are getting in their primes.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 11:18 a.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>It's December 2023. Parayko isn't the player he was during the Blues magical Cup run. 6.5m for 6.5 years for this 30 year old looks like poor value for any tem.
Funny, Reilly is having a very good season, and then nonsense continues about needing to find a partner for Reilly.</div></div>

Rielly is having a very good season, definitely should be in the Norris conversation. Now name me another time he should have been there. This isn't so much a 'Rielly needs this guy' thing, but the 'Leafs defensive depth needs this guy' type of thing. You drop Parayko in on the top and Liljegren is your #2, Timmins is your #3 on the right. And Parayko is a helluvan upgrade on Brodie. Sometimes they slide Liljegren out there with Rielly because Brodie's game is falling off somewhat. That wouldn't be the case with Parayko.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2023 at 8:29 a.m.
Thread: Leafs Opening Night 25-26 II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>So in 2 years time, its essentially the same team?

Why?

And 8 rookies hit their development? And you re-signed Matt Murray? HAhahaha. pretty weak team only created to maintain this goofy top 4 forward scheme that has never worked yet. And Lagesson is your 3LD? Steeves is your 2LW? Timmins suddenly learns defense?</div></div>

People were saying much the same thing about Knies and Robertson two years ago in terms of development. I see Steeves filling much the same role on that line as Knies does on the first. He is the guy who gets the puck to the talent and provides a physical presence. He's not the driver there. He can fill that role.

I actually watch these guys play games. I don't depend on third party sources who haven't updated their opinions since their draft year. I'm actually watching Grebyonkin play for Magnitogorsk as I type this.

I suggest you do the same before venturing forth an opinion in this regard.

There is nothing Zadorov is giving Calgary *right now* that Lagesson is not giving the Leafs. He's playing tidy physical defensive hockey. That's what you want from him.

Matt Murray can give you between 20 and 30 starts at that price and that's all you need him for. He won two Stanley Cups as a young goalie. Relating that experience will be invaluable to a guy like Woll. Moreover, *if* he stumbles, Denis Hildeby, he of the two shutouts in four starts, is right around the corner
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 16, 2023 at 4:32 a.m.
Thread: Leafs Opening Night 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>Having a mobile defense that keeps the puck on their stick a lot is a great strategy, but you also need balance. I'm not saying they won't be balanced, but there's a few major question marks. I'd be a little concerned if I were the Leafs. Gio is still ok, but his age is going to hit the wall and no matter how good Liljegren is next season, if he really slows down even more it will be a big problem on that third pair. And if McCabe doesn't adjust it will be an even bigger problem.

It's a similar situation with the Pens. We potentially have a stellar defense based on mobility, but we also have two serious defensive stalwarts in Pettersson and Graves to off-set Karlsson who like Reilly and Klingberg, is a defensive black hole, but it will remain to be seen how it all gels together.</div></div>

Well first off, no one black holes on defense like Erik Karlsson. To me that is the trophy he wins as often as Bergeron did the Selke.

I looked at Graves in the off-season as I thought he might be a suitable Holl replacement before I saw which direction Treliving was going when he signed Klingberg. On his /60 data he comes in below Justin Holl across the board. I have not looked up Petterson's numbers so I can't comment to those.

I expect both McCabe and Timmins to be better than they were last season once they have a full training camp under their belt, something neither had. As for Klingberg, that Anaheim team was hot garbage before he arrived and remained hot garbage while he was there. In Minnesota he was a square peg in a round hole. In Toronto, he will be in a system that plays to his strengths (transition, mobility) as opposed to one that focuses on his weaknesses (close quarters physicality).
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 16, 2023 at 4:20 a.m.
Thread: Leafs Opening Night 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jaok3</b></div><div>Playing Reaves to let teams know they can't be taking liberties with players is a must. Don't know if Bertuzzi drops the mitts but Domi sure will. Guys play a lot tougher if they know teammates have their back. Lafferty and McCabe will also step up in the physical play. No more Kerfoot, Holl, Bunting, Engvall and ZAR as role players not sticking up for the big guns.</div></div>

I'm not saying they do not play Reaves at all, but I think they do it when they have the room to add him to the roster when someone else is on the IR and an opponent who needs that type of message delivered is in the building. What I am saying is that his salary will not factor into the ones they have to account under the cap for on a regular basis.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 19, 2023 at 11:39 a.m.
Thread: TML 24-25 The Big Four Signed Lindholm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>I know that, but Do you acutally think with the current lineup that either of them get a real chance to become that in 24-25? Or that timmins suddenly learns defense, or all 3 of tverg, holmberg, steeves develop enough to be QUALITY bottom 6 guys?

Seems to me its wishful thinking that these youngsters suddenly explode with no icetime, just to maintain the big 4 (lindholm instead of tavares) making 40+ MIL again, when its hasn;t worked yet and probably not going to in 23-24</div></div>

Both Steeves and Holmberg could handle 4th line minutes *right now*. In fact they have done so already. I've watched enough of Tverburg at Connecticut last season to be fairly confident that he could handle that same assignment in a year's time. Keefe had nothing but good things to say about Holmberg when he was up. The *only* reason he was sent down was because he could be. Why him on the third line and not Kampf? My feeling is that given his performance in the AHL after he was sent down there is more to tap offensively with the kid. Flanking him with a pair of his countrymen I think helps him develop that and gives the Leafs a third line other teams can't sleep on.

As far as Timmins is concerned, my feeling is he gets more minutes this year than he did last as Giordano fades, injuries happen, people sit for various reasons. If anyone has the potential to shoot up in development, it is him given his age. Keep in mind it was never a case of 'the kid can't play', it was always 'the kid can't stay on the ice.'
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2023 at 9:45 a.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs Post Sam Arb I
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CHAR</b></div><div>Anaheim is 6.3M below the floor with an 18 man roster. Simple math says they need to spend 1.25M per player to reach the floor. The idea that the Ducks need players like Brodie or Murray is just sticking your head in the sand and ignoring facts.

Matt Murray signing with a different team is not the threat you seem to think it is. I hope with all my being he signs with some team that is NOT Anaheim.

Brodie would be a nice player to add. But if the Ducks don't add him there are all sorts of other options. I read 30 ACGMs on this site every day from Edmonton, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Boston, etc, etc, etc fans wanting to dump a defenseman on the Ducks. Don't act like it's Brodie or nothing please.</div></div>

Here is a further comparable, the Giordano/Blackwell deal Seattle and Toronto made:

Toronto got Marc Giordano at 1/2 retained, and Colin Blackwell
Seattle got a pair of 2nds and a 3rd

Now this was done at the deadline and prices are always going to be a bit higher then granted.

But Brodie is a flat out a much better defender than Giordano. A 3rd and 4th is selling at less than cost for Brodie alone. You are basically getting Murray for free.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2023 at 1:13 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2023 at 10:56 p.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs Post Sam Arb I
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CHAR</b></div><div>Anaheim is 6.3M below the floor with an 18 man roster. Simple math says they need to spend 1.25M per player to reach the floor. The idea that the Ducks need players like Brodie or Murray is just sticking your head in the sand and ignoring facts.

Matt Murray signing with a different team is not the threat you seem to think it is. I hope with all my being he signs with some team that is NOT Anaheim.

Brodie would be a nice player to add. But if the Ducks don't add him there are all sorts of other options. I read 30 ACGMs on this site every day from Edmonton, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Boston, etc, etc, etc fans wanting to dump a defenseman on the Ducks. Don't act like it's Brodie or nothing please.</div></div>

Murray signing with another team right now is a non-factor because he is under contract for another year, but if they buy him out then he no longer is. He gave the Leafs 14 wins, has a pair of rings, and would be a good back-up to a young starter like Dostal or any other team who is breaking in a new goalie and wants that goalie to be the lead dog in the rotation.

I've never made the Brodie or nothing claim. But I do make the same point with him that I do with Murray. He'd be an ideal mentor for young defensemen because he is a technician that does not rely on superior physical gifts to get the job done, but still gets it done.

There are other defensemen and other goalies you can go out and get without a doubt. But I do not think you would be able to land two players of that quality for the price I've put on these two.