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Hockey_Hippy

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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 17 at 12:25 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Deadline 23-24 II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CouldBeKoi</b></div><div>Not trying to be disrespectful or mean or anything of the sort but truly the Kraken would decline that so fast. Steeves and Villeneuve are not good prospects and a 3rd is nothing. Brodie is purely a camp dumb to make it work and provides no value. Larsson has one more year after this still under contract so they have no need deal him now, especially for such a weak package. Larsson is better than other D-men who have grabbed a first at a deadline ( Chiarot, Savard etc.) so he will command at the least that, considering the extra year as well. Also almost the entire Kraken roster is depth so even if you think Steeves is good they still don't even need him.</div></div>

Not trying to be disrespectful, but you haven't watched them play and I have. I watch on average 8 to 10 games a week of Leaf prospects. I know what they have down there far more than some dude who talks to someone who has talked to someone and tells a story like it is their idea. It just turned noon here. Since last night I've watched Moldenhauer, Malinowski, Grebyonkin, and Chadwick. I've still got a pair of Marlie games ready to go, another Malinowski, a Minten/Lisowsky/Chadwick, a Moldenhauer and the Leafs tonight.

Villeneuve is a year and a half away and I stated that but he's got talent and just needs runway.

As I understand it, Seattle depends on an attack that is so spread out you basically run out of defenders. They are losing three of those forwards from it in a matter of months (Eberle, Wennburg, Tatar). That's why they'd want Steeves. That guy is ready now. You put him with people who can play, he will produce. You put him on your fourth line he will give you an honest night's work, hit and defend. He is on Toronto in October if he is not traded.

And everyone under the sun acknowledges that both Savard and Chairot were overpays. Be that as it may, a 1st from Toronto is likely mid 20's. That's a 3 year development curve on a player you are not even sure pans out. Steeves is already there.

After three years draft pedigree looks good on a hockey card and that is it. Either the dude can play or he can't. It is folly to grade prospects on that basis, yet all of your 'experts', those 'experts' who do not actually watch games beyond a couple tournaments a year, consistently do so.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 10 at 12:26 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Look Ahead 25-26 IV
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Victor24</b></div><div>Maybe. I really don't know prospects. I just don't see many prospects for 1sts trades in the NHL.</div></div>

But again, you are not getting one player for that pick. You are getting a pair of players who have overshot their draft slot, Niemela by a considerable margin. I mean could you raise the protection to Top 10 from Top 5, sure, not a deal breaker there.

Keep in mind that after a couple years draft pedigree looks good on a hockey card and that's about it. The player needs to develop. Look at current Marlie Kieffer Bellows. Son of a good hockey player, he is a former 1st rounder who is on, what, his 3rd organization now having never really stuck. I've watched him a lot this year. He is no threat to make the Leafs despite the point totals because the rest of his game has not developed.

Robertson, now that he is finally healthy, is starting top get his legs under him at the pro level. And Niemela will be a suitable heir as a PP QB for Pittsburgh.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 9 at 4:52 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 22, 2023 at 9:25 p.m.
Thread: Playoff Reinforcements 2324
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Markstrom is 34 years old and has 2 more years after this one.

In the last decade just 1 goalie has played at a above average level through their age 34, 35, 36 seasons, while maintaining a starters workload. That was mike smith. And even in that stretch he wasn't a top 10 goalie (which is what markstroms cap hit would require him to be).

Even best case scenario for markstrom, where he plays at a level that no other goalie has from 34-36, he's still probably only just barely worth his contract that we could probably replace with a UFA

Worst case scenario he falls off like 95% of goalies at this age and we're stuck with 12 million that can't be moved bc he has a full NMC and destroys our current window, and our future window bc we gave up all these assets.

Meier was an RFA. Which meant we controlled his rights.
Hanifin is a UFA, which means we wouldn't. They are not comparable</div></div>

I've always been of the opinion that 95% of your goalies play as well as the team in front of them defends. I think New Jersey, especially adding Hanifan to Hamilton on the top pairing going forward and backing that up with a pairing of Siegenthaler/Marino (or Nemec eventually) plus Ruff as the coach would be better than what Calgary is putting out there currently. That said, I think he is simply better than Vanecek. Given the latter's age, if he was going to approach Markstrom's level of consistency and usage, he would have done so by now. Beyond that he has 2 years left after this one and he is 33. This means his deal ends after 35, not 36.

I do not think there is a goalie out there you could sign for less that would give you as much. I think there are several that could give you Vanecek, but you've seen what he can do. It's not enough.

And again, when I proposed this trade it was with the assumption that the Devils sign Hanifan to an extension. I do not propose this deal otherwise. That you keep bringing this up as a reason to flag it after I have twice now pointed out the misrepresentation of what I am proposing is telling.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 15, 2023 at 6:10 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>You can see how that’s completely counterproductive then no? And how this trade isn’t appealing at all from a Blues fan point of view? We’re trading our only good defenseman at actual defense for a glut of players who could possibly be middle of the lineup players but not for certain (which mind you we have a boat load of those already) just because they’re younger. So we’re getting worse and attaching a high draft pick in order to do so.</div></div>

Bottom line: I think the Blues need to blow that team up. This is a team that is not a guarantee to make the playoffs year on year that is only getting older. I happen to think that Niemela is more than a middle of the lineup player and Holmberg while not a line driver, can be a complementary top 6 at the pro level. Abruzzese *could* get there as well, but it would be more of a surprise. You might not agree with the assessment of those players but I believe you are basing that assessment on second hand information and not the actual viewing of those players in games. I do not venture an opinion on a prospect unless I *have* watched them several times.

Niemela I see as another Faulk who has been a first pairing guy in the past. I compared Holmberg to a heavier Jarnkrok, but if you are not as familiar enough with him think Ivan Barbashev. I stand by those calls. Scouting reports that have not been updated since a player's draft year do not trump actually watching the players play.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 10:19 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Parayko is thrown out there nearly 70% of the time on d zone starts. Mind you in almost strictly matchup usage.

It’s not overly comparable. Nor should it be they’re different players and in much different circumstances.

By every account from the front office they are very happy with Paraykos play as recently as Armstrong’s presser yesterday.

I’m not entirely opposed to your argument of them needing to undergo a heavier turnover than expected. But that turnover has to start with the Krugs or Faulk, otherwise it’s not really worthwhile.

Parayko is the absolute pillar of our defense. He’s the only defenseman that can comfortably play in our own end, that’s including his partner who is completely in over his head.

Forgive me for being pessimistic in regards to those 3 prospects. But we’re currently going through the tollercosster of not overly impressive at anything defenseman who are average sized but produced at lower tiers or earlier in their careers.

Depth and more specifically, bottom end depth and youth isn’t our issue.

I don’t foresee any of those guys being short term or long term fixes for what we need.

And as much as guys like to complain about Paraykos contract. With the cap going up? What do you expect to happen to UFA contracts? 5.5-7 is going to be close to the going rate for 2nd pair defenseman.

This doesn’t even factor in adding a 2nd into the deal for no particular reason. But we move Parayko and I can assure you that 2nd is in the 30s. And it will for many more years to come.</div></div>

I don't disagree that Faulk and Krug would also be a part of that turnover, likely Leddy too. And St. Louis would probably find takers for all of them somewhere. Just not Toronto. They aren't what the Leafs are looking for.

The 2nd is in there because you are getting three players that will play for you within the year, and not just a cup of coffee, and not garbage time. PLus the fact that the Leafs take the whole hit on the salary.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 8:23 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>If tj brodie wasnt a leaf putting up numbers like he is, i wouldn't trade for him either, and he doesnt have a massive awful contract.
As far as parayko 'forcing' players to skate and skate, uh, he isnt doing that either because they still get massive amounts of shots through. If he blocks 2 out of every 6 shots he still lets 4 through (and he isnt blocking 1/3rd of the shots he faces).
The only way to look at this is that he is getting burried and he is incapable of digging himself out and he has been getting progressivly worse.
Throw in the fact that he's past prime age and by all accounts will only get worse, no he wont be fine.
Brodie is 3 years older and declining, so what is parayko gonna look like then?
Like, the leafs dont have a defensive structure or guy who can carry him so why would he look good there? Why would the leafs take on such a massive risky contract for a guy who cant even carry their 2nd pairing?</div></div>

What can I say? I think you are under estimating the Leafs ability to play a disciplined defensive structure and I think you are under estimating Parayko's ability to fit into one. You're not going to agree with me. I can see that. It is what it is.

We can keep going back and forth on this but why bother? Neither of us is going to convince the other of anything.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 8:19 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>This is the thing that's hard to convey to people.

We do NOT need salary cap flexibility by moving Parayko. It actually gives us less flexibility. Not only are we then needing to find a Defenseman who can play defensive zone draws strictly in matchup situations, we are also needing one that is comfortable doing so 25+ minutes a night. That's not asked of anyone in the league aside from Parayko, and in all reality, nobody could thrive under those circumstances. So what we then would have to do is find a 3rd pairing guy and get him and his partner hammered in for 20+ minutes a night, which effectively makes us 10 times worse.

What we need to do is gain cap flexibility by trading an expendable guy like Krug/Leddy/Faulk. Not the only pillar on defense we have. Pick 25 and Niemela isn't really worth the headache of trying to replace what probably cannot be replaced. 4-5 years down the road sure this trade will make things better for us. But it essentially puts us in a long term rebuild, which Armstrong has displayed reluctance (thus far) to do.</div></div>

Parayko currently ranks 34th among defensemen for TOI/GP at 23:15. By contrast Morgan Rielly is 9th at 24:59 and leads all defensemen with 21:41 in ES TOI/GP.

Your team needs to move on from the remnants of the core. It is aging out and Robert Thomas can't do everything. The Blues are now a team that no longer is a shoe in to make the playoffs year on year. This gives them three young players who will play for them within the year. Brodie is by no means the meat of the deal but needs to be included to make the numbers work from Toronto's end. No Brodie? No young guys. And you need those young guys more than you need Parayko.

Also keep in mind that next summer is going to feature a bumper crop of UFAs. Cap space is not a bad thing to have.