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Leafs Blueline Upgrade 23-24

Created by: Hockey_Hippy
Team: 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 14, 2023
Published: Dec. 14, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
People who do not watch AHL games and depend on journalists who do not update their rankings of prospects compiled in their draft year until they reach the NHL, please refrain from commenting. If you are not going to do the homework you simply will not have the relevant information to venture a valid opinion.
Trades
TOR
  1. Parayko, Colton
  2. 2024 2nd round pick (STL)
Additional Details:
The Leafs take the full hit on Parayko's salary for the length of the deal but get a battleship RHD they have been looking for to pair with Rielly and take the top defensive assignments. Given the prospect capital they are giving up in the deal and the fact that those players will play in St. Louis within the year at the latest, a second going the other way seems reasonable.
STL
  1. Abruzzese, Nick
  2. Brodie, TJ
  3. Holmberg, Pontus
  4. Niemelä, Topi
Additional Details:
The Blues get the Leafs top prospect in Niemela who is up to 6'0" 179 now and can play both sides but is a RHD, Holmburg and Abruzzese both of whom probably slot in anywhere between 6 and 10 on the forward depth chart. Holmberg gives you great PK and Abruzzese would be the PP specialist. Plus they get Brodie on the last year of his deal so five million in cap space to do as they wish in a few months.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
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2025
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2026
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$83,006,450$0$0$493,550
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
NMC
UFA - 1
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$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 2
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$796,667$796,667
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,000,000$3,000,000
C, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,400,000$2,400,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$762,500$762,500
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$7,500,000$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the St. Louis Blues
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$766,667$766,667
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,400,000$1,400,000
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,550,000$3,550,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$800,000$800,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,687,500$4,687,500
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$875,000$875,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,150,000$4,150,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,350,000$1,350,000 ($200,000$200K$200,000$200K)
RW
UFA - 3

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Dec. 14, 2023 at 10:35 a.m.
#1
FKA Bigtittielarper
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Leafs pass
Dec. 14, 2023 at 10:37 a.m.
#2
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Parayko hasnt been a top pairing guy in years, he's basically a number 4 now with an awful contract
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 10:40 a.m.
#3
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would honestly do this if i were the leafs (or if i were the blues)... mutually beneficial deal.

the term is a little scary tho
Dec. 14, 2023 at 10:44 a.m.
#4
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It's December 2023. Parayko isn't the player he was during the Blues magical Cup run. 6.5m for 6.5 years for this 30 year old looks like poor value for any tem.
Funny, Reilly is having a very good season, and then nonsense continues about needing to find a partner for Reilly.
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:00 a.m.
#5
Xercuses
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Quoting: palhal
It's December 2023. Parayko isn't the player he was during the Blues magical Cup run. 6.5m for 6.5 years for this 30 year old looks like poor value for any tem.
Funny, Reilly is having a very good season, and then nonsense continues about needing to find a partner for Reilly.


Quoting: SomeonesOffended
Leafs pass


Quoting: JaredOfLondon
Parayko hasnt been a top pairing guy in years, he's basically a number 4 now with an awful contract


Dont worry Blues wouldnt accept an offer this abysmal anyway, side note yall clearly dont actually watch play
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:03 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: xercuses
Dont worry Blues wouldnt accept an offer this abysmal anyway, side note yall clearly dont actually watch play


Nah, ive seen him plenty. He isnt good, youd know that if you watched him play
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:09 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
Parayko hasnt been a top pairing guy in years, he's basically a number 4 now with an awful contract


Parayko leads the Blues defensemen in Icetime/Game and SH Icetime/Game this season. Thanks for playing.
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:11 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: xercuses
Dont worry Blues wouldnt accept an offer this abysmal anyway, side note yall clearly dont actually watch play


Remember that thing I said up above about not commenting on the value of players you had not watched because without watching them you lacked the information to offer a valid opinion? Not talking about Parayko here.
Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:13 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: jimtreliving
would honestly do this if i were the leafs (or if i were the blues)... mutually beneficial deal.

the term is a little scary tho


The contract gets better towards the end. But he is only 36/37 in the last year of it. Given where the cap will be at that time, that won't be much of a hardship.
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:18 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: palhal
It's December 2023. Parayko isn't the player he was during the Blues magical Cup run. 6.5m for 6.5 years for this 30 year old looks like poor value for any tem.
Funny, Reilly is having a very good season, and then nonsense continues about needing to find a partner for Reilly.


Rielly is having a very good season, definitely should be in the Norris conversation. Now name me another time he should have been there. This isn't so much a 'Rielly needs this guy' thing, but the 'Leafs defensive depth needs this guy' type of thing. You drop Parayko in on the top and Liljegren is your #2, Timmins is your #3 on the right. And Parayko is a helluvan upgrade on Brodie. Sometimes they slide Liljegren out there with Rielly because Brodie's game is falling off somewhat. That wouldn't be the case with Parayko.
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:21 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: Hockey_Hippy
Parayko leads the Blues defensemen in Icetime/Game and SH Icetime/Game this season. Thanks for playing.


Playing a lot doesn't mean playing well, thanks for playing
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:25 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: Hockey_Hippy
Remember that thing I said up above about not commenting on the value of players you had not watched because without watching them you lacked the information to offer a valid opinion? Not talking about Parayko here.


Dude, just because you dont watch a player you shouldn't assume other people dont either
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:28 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
Playing a lot doesn't mean playing well, thanks for playing


You just got done telling me he is a #4 defenseman. I just got done showing you the data that proves that on St. Louis he is their #1 and that is all you've got? Really dude? If he was such a clunker, the Blues would not be running him out there as often as they do. He is also leading the team in Blocks/60 so shot suppression is a thing with him, never mind getting around that 6'6" reach.
Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:34 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: xercuses
Dont worry Blues wouldnt accept an offer this abysmal anyway, side note yall clearly dont actually watch play


Listen man let this guy dream his silly little dream but the leafs will not acquire parayko guy likely isn’t even available but if I was to put together an offer like this I’d want at least 1.5M retained because he is overpaid by that much can you at least admit that?
Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:36 a.m.
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Quoting: Hockey_Hippy
You just got done telling me he is a #4 defenseman. I just got done showing you the data that proves that on St. Louis he is their #1 and that is all you've got? Really dude? If he was such a clunker, the Blues would not be running him out there as often as they do. He is also leading the team in Blocks/60 so shot suppression is a thing with him, never mind getting around that 6'6" reach.


It is very funny that you're trying the "if he plays so much he cant be bad" thing when your team just fired the coach who plays him so much. Oh, and the fact that coaches, especially ones with not great rosters, often over play players significantly. Tyler bozak was the leafs 1C for years and he was never a 1C in his entire career.
But hey, you want stats? 41.3 cf% -10.6 corsi rel, 41.2 ff% -10.1 fenwick rel in all situations combined with 40% and -3 5v5 rel numbers, so no, he does not have that shot suppression thing with him.
The fact that he's so big and teams are murdering him in shots and chances is pretty bad
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:39 a.m.
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
Dude, just because you dont watch a player you shouldn't assume other people dont either


But that's just it. I *do* watch. I *do* watch Niemela, Abruzzese, and Holmberg play 2 sometimes 3 times a week. I know exactly what they bring to the table. And I'm not one for hyperbole. If a player stinks it up on a given night, I say as much.

You want a comparable on Niemela? How about your own Justin Faulk? Once he fills out that's what he game looks like. He is the meat in this deal. Holmberg is a heavier Calle Jarnkrok. Out of the three Abruzzese probably has the least stick in him but if put on a line with a shooter, he can get them the puck. He projects to be similar to Alex Kerfoot but with a more offensive skew.

Faulk has been a #1 in the past. Both Jarnkrok and Kerfoot cycled up and down the lineup regularly with Toronto. They are both real plug and play types that compliment anyone. That is who you are getting in their primes.
Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:41 a.m.
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Quoting: Hockey_Hippy
But that's just it. I *do* watch. I *do* watch Niemela, Abruzzese, and Holmberg play 2 sometimes 3 times a week. I know exactly what they bring to the table. And I'm not one for hyperbole. If a player stinks it up on a given night, I say as much.

You want a comparable on Niemela? How about your own Justin Faulk? Once he fills out that's what he game looks like. He is the meat in this deal. Holmberg is a heavier Calle Jarnkrok. Out of the three Abruzzese probably has the least stick in him but if put on a line with a shooter, he can get them the puck. He projects to be similar to Alex Kerfoot but with a more offensive skew.

Faulk has been a #1 in the past. Both Jarnkrok and Kerfoot cycled up and down the lineup regularly with Toronto. They are both real plug and play types that compliment anyone. That is who you are getting in their primes.


Neat, and i watch parayko and he's an over paid number 4 who cant carry a pairing anymore and os being burried with too much responsibility
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:43 a.m.
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I’ll never understand why you guys continually make proposals of Parayko going to Toronto just to **** on the guy because you looked at a hockey card on Twitter that said he’s not doing well that takes very little context into situations.

Yet we all tell you that we are completely happy keeping Parayko and then it becomes a you bashing him and the cycle continues
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:55 a.m.
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Quoting: AC14
I’ll never understand why you guys continually make proposals of Parayko going to Toronto just to **** on the guy because you looked at a hockey card on Twitter that said he’s not doing well that takes very little context into situations.

Yet we all tell you that we are completely happy keeping Parayko and then it becomes a you bashing him and the cycle continues


Bud - let me repeat; Leafs Nation is the biggest fanbase in the league. Think Blues fans and then multiply by a lot. Lumping us all into same category, especially on player valuations is well … not that useful. I’m with the majority (I think) Parayko is overpaid for what he brings and with way too much term; he’s a good player but no chance we should move for him given above, nevermind the acquisition cost.
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 12:02 p.m.
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Ok...so I'm coming into this discussion as someone who was all for a Nylander-Parayko trade about 2-3 years ago. Actually...ever since watching the world cup of hockey and the NA Team with Rielly and Parayko paired together I've wanted Parayko to be a leaf.

Now...a lot has changed since then. The reality is that Parayko hasn't lived up to expectations ever since Pietrangelo left and he took on more responsibilities/ice time. He's far from being a bad defender...but he hasn't proven to me that he's a legit top pairing d-man on a competing team. Does that mean I don't want him anymore? No. I still hold a soft spot for him in my heart and am still intrigued to see what him and Rielly would look like on a regular basis.

But his contract is no longer aligned with what he's been bringing to the table (other than gobbling up minutes). The term is scarier than the cap hit given the risk and the fact he's now 30 so I don't think we can reasonably think his game will hit an upswing at any point...he kind of is what he is...and I'm not convinced he's a huge upgrade on Brodie...at least not for this year.

I think the trade value is pretty good, to be honest. I don't think the Blues are looking to get out from under Parayko's deal but I don't think you'd have to twist their arm with a prospect package like this. There's value and risk on both sides....for me, I'd consider something similar in the off season (acknowledging Brodie is a free agent)...I can get behind Parayko "replacing" brodie next year vs accepting he'd be an upgrade over Brodie for this year (if that makes any sense). I think our cap space and assets for this season would be better allocated towards adding to the right side and potentially bumping Brodie to 2nd pairing vs replacing him.
Dec. 14, 2023 at 12:03 p.m.
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
It is very funny that you're trying the "if he plays so much he cant be bad" thing when your team just fired the coach who plays him so much. Oh, and the fact that coaches, especially ones with not great rosters, often over play players significantly. Tyler bozak was the leafs 1C for years and he was never a 1C in his entire career.
But hey, you want stats? 41.3 cf% -10.6 corsi rel, 41.2 ff% -10.1 fenwick rel in all situations combined with 40% and -3 5v5 rel numbers, so no, he does not have that shot suppression thing with him.
The fact that he's so big and teams are murdering him in shots and chances is pretty bad



Ok, first I tend to value raw data more than formulas derived from raw data because in the latter, while it gets reduced to a convenient single number, for that convenience you are letting someone else decide how much weight to apply to each piece of data.

With the blocks/60, that's pretty straightforward. This is how many blocks he has, this is the minutes he plays. Divide the blocks by 60. Easy.

As for the SC/HDSC keep in mind they more or less bury Parayko and Leddy in their own end in St. Louis far more than any other pairing Parayko is 214 defensive zone faceoffs, Leddy 202. No one else is above 174. And they get the top defensive assignments on a team that has decidedly been less than committed defensively up front this season. He's basically making the best of a bad situation where he is. How do you think anyone else on the St. Louis blueline holds up doing that? Do you think they come out with better numbers? I don't.
Dec. 14, 2023 at 12:05 p.m.
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Quoting: AC14
I’ll never understand why you guys continually make proposals of Parayko going to Toronto just to **** on the guy because you looked at a hockey card on Twitter that said he’s not doing well that takes very little context into situations.

Yet we all tell you that we are completely happy keeping Parayko and then it becomes a you bashing him and the cycle continues


I actually like the player and I think the proposal is a fair one. Not trying to crap on the guy and I think the youth going back plus the future salary cap flexibility will help you.
Dec. 14, 2023 at 12:08 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: Hockey_Hippy
Ok, first I tend to value raw data more than formulas derived from raw data because in the latter, while it gets reduced to a convenient single number, for that convenience you are letting someone else decide how much weight to apply to each piece of data.

With the blocks/60, that's pretty straightforward. This is how many blocks he has, this is the minutes he plays. Divide the blocks by 60. Easy.

As for the SC/HDSC keep in mind they more or less bury Parayko and Leddy in their own end in St. Louis far more than any other pairing Parayko is 214 defensive zone faceoffs, Leddy 202. No one else is above 174. And they get the top defensive assignments on a team that has decidedly been less than committed defensively up front this season. He's basically making the best of a bad situation where he is. How do you think anyone else on the St. Louis blueline holds up doing that? Do you think they come out with better numbers? I don't.


Blocks are an awful way to evaluate defensive ability. All that it means is that he is on the ice while he is getting spammed with shots, and when the other numbers confirm that the team allows all these shots with him on the ice that shows that he is not preventing shots or chances. So when he is on the ice, his team gets hammered with shots, and most of them are from the home plate area close to the net.
He is the one allowing these shots and chances because he isnt stopping any offense.
The old quote about blocking shots is always relevant. It's like killing rats, killing a rat is good, but if you have to kill so many rats you have bigger issues
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Dec. 14, 2023 at 12:16 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: Juice
Ok...so I'm coming into this discussion as someone who was all for a Nylander-Parayko trade about 2-3 years ago. Actually...ever since watching the world cup of hockey and the NA Team with Rielly and Parayko paired together I've wanted Parayko to be a leaf.

Now...a lot has changed since then. The reality is that Parayko hasn't lived up to expectations ever since Pietrangelo left and he took on more responsibilities/ice time. He's far from being a bad defender...but he hasn't proven to me that he's a legit top pairing d-man on a competing team. Does that mean I don't want him anymore? No. I still hold a soft spot for him in my heart and am still intrigued to see what him and Rielly would look like on a regular basis.

But his contract is no longer aligned with what he's been bringing to the table (other than gobbling up minutes). The term is scarier than the cap hit given the risk and the fact he's now 30 so I don't think we can reasonably think his game will hit an upswing at any point...he kind of is what he is...and I'm not convinced he's a huge upgrade on Brodie...at least not for this year.

I think the trade value is pretty good, to be honest. I don't think the Blues are looking to get out from under Parayko's deal but I don't think you'd have to twist their arm with a prospect package like this. There's value and risk on both sides....for me, I'd consider something similar in the off season (acknowledging Brodie is a free agent)...I can get behind Parayko "replacing" brodie next year vs accepting he'd be an upgrade over Brodie for this year (if that makes any sense). I think our cap space and assets for this season would be better allocated towards adding to the right side and potentially bumping Brodie to 2nd pairing vs replacing him.


First, I appreciate the well thought out and reasoned comment.

I feel that a lot of the sag in Parayko's numbers can be attributed to a combination of usage and the fact that over the past year the Blues have moved on from a good chunk of their defensively conscientious forwards without the younger guys picking up that slack. That would not be the case in Toronto. Their top two players are constantly in the Selke conversation and the other forwards follow their lead. The fact that they are 9-1-2 in their past 12 despite playing with half a blueline and now their back up goalie says as much.

As for Brodie, I've seen more inconsistency in his game this season than I have in years past, so I would see Parayko as an upgrade this year over Brodie, given the differences in their current situations.
Dec. 14, 2023 at 12:34 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
Blocks are an awful way to evaluate defensive ability. All that it means is that he is on the ice while he is getting spammed with shots, and when the other numbers confirm that the team allows all these shots with him on the ice that shows that he is not preventing shots or chances. So when he is on the ice, his team gets hammered with shots, and most of them are from the home plate area close to the net.
He is the one allowing these shots and chances because he isnt stopping any offense.
The old quote about blocking shots is always relevant. It's like killing rats, killing a rat is good, but if you have to kill so many rats you have bigger issues


It also does not show that he isn't preventing them either by forcing players to skate and skate and skate and then finally out of frustration let one loose right into his shinguards. You can see that two different ways.

Moneypuck has Parayko at 66.19 shot attempts against/60. Leddy is 69.14. Those two do the heavy lifting. What is revealing are the others: Scandella is 65.52, Faulk is 63.80, Krug is 59.29. All of these players do not face they level of opposition Parayko and Leddy do yet they are all within spitting distance of Parayko.

T.J. Brodie by contrast is 73.01.

I think Parayko would be just fine in Toronto.
 
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