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Kato

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Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 4:34 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Retool
I think Seth Jones will be moved either this off-season or sometime next season. It's clear that they will make Bedard the next captain of the team. You also don't want to be retaining on a contract and move him later on when you really need the cap space to compete. Always better to move a player a year too early than a year too late.

Minten has the value of a first rounder that can come in and play right away. Robinson has the potential to develop in a top 6 role which will be tough to come by in Toronto but not too difficult in Chicago. It's all about fits. Jones doesn't really fit with the timeliness the Blackhawks are currently in and wasting his prime years doesn't make sense. It's less than they paid to get him but he's also a lot more expensive and older now. It allows them to get some valuable pieces that can grow with Bedard from game 1 of next season.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 12:29 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Retool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kous</b></div><div>I get that but they can do it without trading away Minten, the 1st and cost effective player like Robinson. They can go after UFAs. They don't have any cap space next year but will have lots the year after.</div></div>

You won't get anyone with the upside of Jones. You'll either get guys who are puck movers but cant handle physicality or giants who can't move the puck. There is a luxury to that type of player. It's hard to get a right shot player that can do that and be your new number 1 defenseman. The top guys in free agency like Montour and Pesce don't offer what Jones can. Hanafin would have but he's off the market so if you want a guy that can play both sides of defense and that is big you need to pay up for it in trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 12:25 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Retool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>If CHI wanted to move on from Jones and his contract for some reason, this might be interesting to some extent, but they don't... Or at least, they shouldn't. This would also be a big step backward, which is the opposite of what our GM has stated he wants to accomplish next season. Unless they have some other trade(s) worked out and/or free agents they are making space for and Jones asks for a trade.</div></div>

The reason I made for trading Jones is that he doesn't really fit with the Blackhawks timeline. He's 29 now and the Blackhawks will be out of the playoffs for at least 2 more years and maybe more beyond that. Then they will take their lumps in the playoffs for a couple of seasons. By that point Jones is nearing 35 and probably declining so you don't get much from him when you really need it. Minten is a middle six center. Probably best suited as a top end 3C and he fits with the Bedard timeline. Robertson has really good scoring ability he just needs top play in the top 6. If he got the chance to play with Bedard I think he could be a 30+ goal guy. He's also young enough to fit into a future core. The other guys just finish out their contract in Chicago. Reeves makes sure a team doesn't take liberties with Bedard and Kampf is a responsible defensive center that wins draws and kills penalties. He's a guy that a contending team would have interest in at the deadline with less term on his deal and he can probably get back a 3rd at the deadline if they wanted to move off him.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 20 at 11:25 p.m.
Thread: Next Year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>I appreciate your opinion! Truly. Did you know his wife is from Chicago and they meet at Notre Dame??? Like I hear you, but he'd be the 6th or 7th veteran that came to CHI for none hockey reasons. It happens all the time. Maybe 1 of those 16 teams COULD...MAYBE...POSSIBLY be CHI. Far stranger things have happened.</div></div>

Nothing is impossible. Just don't see Lee at this stage in his career accepting a deal to Chicago. Maybe in a few years when his contract is up and he's a free agent if he can't latch on to a cup contender.

Even saying that though why would you want Lee on the Blackhawks right now? If I'm the Blackhawks I'm trading away draft picks (second rounders as they have 8 over the next 3 seasons) for young players other teams can't afford to keep. Think of Sean Durzi types. Trying to rebuild with just draft picks is really tough because a lot of them just don't develop and I believe that losing teams do more harm to a lot of them.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 20 at 10:41 p.m.
Thread: Next Year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>I don't view those as being equal. Anders has to provide a list of teams. You're assuming he's willing to go to Canada. Some guys aren't. Maybe he doesn't want to go against the NYI so the Metro is out. If he wants to be closer to "home"...he might accept MIN/CHI. It's possible. But it's not a choice of what team do I want to do go. It's a choice of which teams would I put on my list.

Not saying you're wrong...just A LOT more goes into those decisions.</div></div>

Typically the lists are submitted each year around July 1st. Players typically use modified no trade lists to their advantage. He has a 15 team no trade list. If he's smart he can practically make that a complete no trade list by leaving off teams that would never trade for him because of their cap situation like Colorado, Toronto, Tampa Bay and Minnesota. A lot of times a player ends up going to a team on his list but it's because it's an ideal situation where a team is in a contending situation and it's a better situation than the team he is leaving. Chicago is not in that position currently. Look how long rebuilds in Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa have been going on. It's not a situation veteran players with options want to be in. They often get players because they pay players the most. Pretty much what you did with Henrique and Demelo. No other team would hand out those contracts. For Lee he already has a contract.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 20 at 10:14 p.m.
Thread: Jakey come back U can blame it all on Sully
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>Shane has exceptional player status, they aren't going to make that exception for everyone.
Not to mention Shane should have played for SEA this year instead of being in the AHL.</div></div>

Exceptional player status is only to play early in the CHL. Any player can play in the AHL if their pro team decides it's best for the players development and they signed a pro contract. The WHL, OHL, QMJHL team will always back down and allow it if that's what the pro team wants. There has been zero times where a team wanted to put a 19 year old player in the AHL and a CHL team said no. It's the same way how even the pro team has a lot of control over how the CHL team will utilize the player. It doesn't happen often because most of the time a player staying an additional year in the CHL still has plenty to work on and isn't AHL ready to begin with so playing against players in their late 20'sand early 30's and getting 4th line minutes isn't typically best for their development.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 20 at 7:34 p.m.
Thread: Jakey come back U can blame it all on Sully
I think the most likely prospect to break camp with the Penguins next season is Koivunen. He dominated playing against grown men in a high level league that values defensive responsibility. He seems like a player capable of starting on the third line wing and working his way up. Yager needs to be a top 6 winger so I don't see him being a factor next season. I actually still think he can benefit from another season in the WHL as his defense leaves a lot to be desired still. Defense takes a long time to develop. I would be shocked if Pickering wasn't in the AHL all of next year. He still is an awkward skater as it's clear he's still adjusting into his height. He has a similar body type to Marcus Pettersson so it's unlikely he's ready to play in the NHL next season. He needs to get physically stronger. Broz could potentially win a spot because his ceiling is that of a bottom 6 player. There isn't a whole lot of development upside in him so it's simply a matter of if he can handle himself defensively at the NHL level. Poulin is a bottom 6 player as well so has a chance to make the team. Bemstrom is pretty useless unless he's in a top 6 role. His defense is awful and if he's not playing with skilled players he serves no purpose. I imagine assuming he is willing to avoid arbitration he gets a shot in the top 6 at camp next year playing with either Crosby or Malkin and if he doesn't stick he probably is placed on waivers. It's just as likely he signs somewhere in Europe this offseason though. Ponomarev is a bad defensive player who also probably needs to be in the top 6 and I don't see an opening for him. I think the team really needs to think about moving Malkin to the wing as his defense is pretty awful and won't get better as he gets older but he could still be a contributor on the wing and his limitations are hidden better when he is responsible for defending opposing teams defenseman. I would love to get Dubois. He's big, skates well and has performed well in the playoffs on mostly bad teams. His contract is a little overvalued but that would allow you to probably get him in a bad contact swap. He's so young still and I think playing on the same team with Crosby would be really beneficial for him.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 16 at 4:44 a.m.
Thread: Penguins 2024-25 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>I stopped at Jack Campbell. You are high as a kite or drunk.
They have 0 interest in Jack Campbell. They have 2 outstanding young goalie prospects in Blom and Murashov. They have no need for a goalie and that's that.
Pit has no interest in destroying what's left of their defense for Laine. That isn't an opinion that's a fact. MP is off the table. They don't really have chips they are going to give up for Laine.
Any Laine trade would look like Rackell for Laine. Or Smith for Laine.... which I don't see CBJ agreeing too.
They aren't trading away their 1st round picks, they aren't in position to. They aren't trading away their few good prospects.
Laine A. doesn't have the value to be worth those to Pit, B. he doesn't have the designer to sign in PIT long term. For the same reasons he's not willing to resign in CBJ.</div></div>

Laine can't sign an extension. He's too far away from free agency to even have that discussion. Campbell for Graves is simply both teams moving their problems to another team. Campbell becomes a backup and if one of the younger prospects takes his spot when they are ready then that's no issue. Campbell goes on waivers and to the minors and they bank a little cap space. If Campbell returns to form then you can move him for a minimal return if the younger guys push him for a spot. The main reasoning is to move off of Graves contract which is negative value.

I didn't say anything about any team trading their first round pick. Most of these trades were simply about moving negative value contracts for other teams negative value contracts.

Given the shape of Pittsburghs defense I would say it's more likely than not that Pettersson is going to be moved this offseason. They already have a lot of money locked in for defense and handing out an extension for Pettersson would be a bad use of resources. If you can get get value for Pettersson it makes sense to move him and try and replace 90% of what he does with someone else at a lower cost. I personally value the idea of buying low on Laine because of his upside. If he has chemistry with Sid I could see a path to him having a 50 goal season. Not to mention he could be the trigger man that fixes the powerplay. Both those are far more valuable than anything Pettersson can provide. I'll gamble on players that can raise the ceiling of the team any day. Laine will, Pettersson just keeps the floor higher. The Penguins are a better defensive team (13th) than they are an offensive team (19th) Everyone will be a year older next season so increasing the offense is much more likely to improve the teams fortunes next year. Lain is probably worth a 20 goal upgrade to this team. I think you can replace Pettersson with a player that maybe isn't as good but won't be a 20 goal negative to what Pettersson prevents.

Pettersson has more value to a championship contending team or a team that has a deep prospect pool and hopes to turn their fortunes around in a year or two. The Penguins are not that team. Hanging onto Pettersson for the teams post core dark days would be a massive mistake.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 16 at 1:36 a.m.
Thread: Penguins 2024-25 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>The only trade here the penguins would be even remotely interested in is the OTT trade. But It's probably better off, Jarry for Chychrun with out over complicating it. Just let the teams swap cap.








you two are on some good smoke. Laine at this point isn't bringing you back Pettersson, let alone adding.
The penguins have no interest in destroying what's left of their defense for Laine. None at all.</div></div>

I think that they would have interest in Jack Campbell. Dubas likes his guys and acquired Campbell originally. He tried hard to resign him but couldn't make it work. I think he would like a do over on Graves and if had a deal in place to move out Jarry I think Campbell makes sense as a bounce back guy in a trade of teams problem players. Most of these trades are change of scenery deals where both teams are looking to move their problem hoping the player coming back is a better fit. All these players were once productive and it's clear a lot of players are simply just not fits in certain situations. I think the Penguins would have interest because it accomplishes multiple goals. With guys like Laine and Dubois the team gets younger and also raises the talent level. Then it's up to coaching to maximize that talent Elite organizations can buy low on players and improve their performance. There certainly is a lot of risk from the Penguins view point but I don't see a different path to improve the team without being willing to take risks as if they just do the usual free agent tinkering then they will likely be life and death to make the playoffs again next year. I would rather target guys still in their prime and have performed than go after past their prime free agents or mid tier prospects that even if they hit will likely be low upside players.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 15 at 9:58 p.m.
Thread: Penguins 2024-25 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pens1991</b></div><div>I'm sorry but this is awful lol

That defense is atrocious. You're sending away your best defensive defenseman and adding Brodie, which is not needed.

I have negative desire to acquire PLD and that contract. He's a locker room cancer.

OTT says no to that trade.

I could be interest in Laine, but not at the expensive of Pettersson.

Also Ned is not a starting goaltender.</div></div>

Changing the pieces around the defenseman is needed in my mind. As stated I think playing 7 defenseman is the right move. In this scenario Pettersson is moved because his minutes are the ones being sacrificed and you free up his cap hut and he is one of the few players we have that would get back value in a trade. While Laine has his issues he is south of 30 and has multiple 30 goal seasons and a 40 goal season.

Ned is simply signed because you need someone and he has shown he can be a capable goalie. He's here in a tandem scenario with Campbell until Bloomqvist is ready.

Ottawa has to do something. They can't afford to run it back with the goalies they have. They need to make the playoffs next year. Jarry has far more value to them than moving Chychrun for draft picks. If they feel confident in Jarry for 4 seasons as their starter I think that's a fair price to pay for 1 season of Chychrun
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 15 at 9:49 p.m.
Thread: Penguins 2024-25 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Haymaker26</b></div><div>I think this team being any good requires that Dubois and Laine both being healthy and playing up to their contracts. Going to be honest, I don't see it happening. It's a really really risky move that locks up a lot of cap space that I think can be used to improve the team on defense and in the bottom 6.

As for Megna, he and Karlsson played together as a top pairing on a bad team. He could do it in a pinch, but I think he's best suited in a depth role. This lineup still doesn't have a good enough blue line IMO.</div></div>

It's a top pairing only because someone has to be listed as being in spot number 1. In terms of who would play the most minutes on the left side it would be Chychrun and I would have him at about 25 minutes a game. This was also done with the idea of dressing 7 defenseman. So Megna, Gustafsson and Brodie are combining for about 35 minutes among the 3 of them. Gustafsson would get all the powerplay time possible so his split would ideally be 5 minutes on the powerplay and then 5 minutes of even strength ideally on offensive zone starts. That would leave 25 minutes for Megna and Brodie combined.

The defense is always going to be a problem with Letang and Karlsson both playing the right side and eating so much cap room. I'm going the assumption that they won't move those guys so changing the pieces around them are probably what's needed. While Pettersson is a very good defensive defenseman in this model it doesn't make sense to pay him a lot of money and he has more value in a trade for what he could bring back. He's a good player but it's about fit. Megna is a big body that excelled playing with Karlsson. Brodie blocks a lot of shots and is a better passer than Pettersson. I think a lot of the Penguins problems were because while Karlsson and Letang like to bring up the puck, opposing defenses don't have to fear their partners will do anything because they can't make outlet passes. This changes that. The power play is really the biggest issue with the Penguins and Gustafsson is a power play specialist.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 15 at 6:45 p.m.
Thread: Penguins 2024-25 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Haymaker26</b></div><div>"Attempting to buy low on players like Dubois and Laine" I don't think either of those trades are buying low.
2 middle 6 wingers for a middle 6 C on a bloated contract? No thanks.
Our best LHD/best defensive defenseman and one of our young, cost controlled wingers for a top 6 winger on a bloated contract with significant injury issues? No thanks.</div></div>

You move the contract of Rakell in the deal and get significantly younger. Smith probably doesn't have a lot of value so it's a change of scenery for both teams. Hopefully playing on the same team with Crosby helps Dubois mature. Laine is a player who has scored 40 goals before and when healthy is a sniper. Pettersson is a loss but Megna has played well with Karlsson in the past and Chycrun becomes the top left side defenseman. This lineup uses 7 defenseman so paying Pettersson 5 million to share 35 minutes among 3 defenseman isn't a good use of cap space. If Dubois and Laine can get straightened out then you have two players in their mid 20's who could be cornerstone pieces after the current core is gone but also elevate the current roster to contender status. Puustinen isn't going to move the needle for this team and won't provide any use in a 4th line role but has some value and Koivunen has more upside.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 25 at 11:37 p.m.
Thread: Penguins Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Marcus Pettersson and Noah Hanifin have the exact same trade protections.

If you’re somehow convinced Erik Karlsson has increased has value after having a significantly worse season than last year and being a year older I don’t know what to tell you.

Speaking of UFAs, prices on rentals (which Pettersson is) are generally LOWER in the offseason. Because you have to beat out every UFA that can be obtained for free, in this case Brady Skjei and Noah Hanifin as LD competition.

Rentals go for higher prices at the deadline, because the buying team saves money. On Pettersson, the difference between buying in the offseason and buying at the deadline would be about 3 million dollars in real money</div></div>

While they both have a 8 team no trade list their is a huge difference between a trade at the deadline and one in the offseason. At the trade deadline a lot of teams are out of it and have no use for Hanafin. One of the most interested teams in Hanifan last summer was Pittsburgh. They had zero interest in him at the deadline. Deadline deals are also pretty hard to maneuver in a tight cap situation since you usually need multiple teams to retain salary to make it work. None of these are usually issues in the offseason. Pettersson is also still young enough to have value to a rebuilding team since he has 5-6 prime years in him most likely. The majority of players who have an impact on a game don't make it to free agency until they are in their 30's.

Value of players is not a straight line. Many factors besides performance exist. The flat cap for multiple years impacted a lot of teams and made trades incredibly difficult. Everything pretty much had to be dollar in, dollar out. Most teams planned 3-4 years ahead and expected the cap to rise and when it didn't it severely impacted what they could do. Those restrictions are off for the league this year as even an additional 4 million means a lot. The cap was 83.5 million this year, it jumps to 87.5 million next year and 92 million the following year. A team can basically add Karlssons salary by 6 million falling off in players salaries departures for 2024-25 and then 1.5 million in 2025-26. That is significantly different than adding Karlsson during a flat cap. I suspect the trade market will be much more lively this summer because the free agent market is pretty bare. To secure Noah Hanafin it may cost as much as 8.5 x 7 years for an offensive defenseman that has never passed 50 points. Karlsson will likely surpass that total this season. Karlsson is a poor fit on Pittsburgh just like he was on San Jose for a time with Burns. It doesn't work having multiple right shot offensive defenseman on the same team. The power play can't function with both. However lots of teams can use a first pairing right shot defenseman that can run the power play. Ottawa, Seattle, Toronto and even Carolina if they move Burns all have showed interest in him in the past and have cap room. While he makes 10 million, in any deal there will likely be offset by a contract coming back to Pittsburgh. I could easily see Ottawa deciding to do a change of scenery trade and doing a Chabot for Karlsson trade which is more valuable in my mind than the trade I proposed. Circling back, value is not just about performance it's about a teams situation. teams like Ottawa and Seattle really can't afford to miss the playoffs again next year. They need wins a lot more than they need prospects and draft picks. The goal in hockey is to win a championship, not be the joke teams that stink but own loads of draft picks. In Arizona they may not care but fans in Detroit, Buffalo and Montreal won't tolerate their rebuilds much longer. No team is going to mortgage their future to get Karlsson but there will be enough interest if he's made available that a better return than it cost to acquire him isn't out of the question. The lack of return last year had more to do with the environment teams were dealing with because of the cap more than anything.

Free agency is nearly always a losing battle. It's not really free because for the most part you almost always overpay to obtain the premier players. You give up way too much money for way too much term because most guys are already in their 30's. Skjei and Hanafin are good players but they are different players than Pettersson. Skeji specifically really started to excel in Carolina because Slavin takes the tough minutes. Guys like Slavin, Lindholm, Pettersson, Lindell and Gustav Forsling are massively valuable because their value exceeds goals and assists. They are extremely hard to find and replace so they get significant premiums for that skillset. If Pettersson is traded it will be with an extension or Pittsburgh will just keep him and extend him themselves because he is still young enough to be productive when they come out of their retool or rebuild. The only way he moves is if he says I don't want to be in Pittsburgh and at that point they move him at the deadline if they fall out again next year or trading him returns meaningful assets that could accelerate a rebuild. A team acquiring him will be one that values a defenseman that can play 22-25 hard minutes a night on a top pairing without power play cookies.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 25 at 8:11 p.m.
Thread: Penguins Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Last year Karlsson, coming off a 100 point season, was acquired for a 1st, 2nd and dumping approximately 20 million or so in cap space. I’d wager his actual value was close to nothing when you consider the cap dumps.

Now you expect a 2nd, 3rd, cost controlled dman rental, and a top prospect in hockey, after a much worse season from Karlsson. Ideally you could get a team to take on Karlsson full contract for future considerations.

Comparing Ty smith as an asset to Shane Wright shows a significant lack of knowledge.

RFAs do not hold the same value as UFAs. This is an undeniable fact.

No team will pay a high 1st+top prospect for Pettersson. Look at the Hanifin return. 2026 1st, 25 year old 7th dman, 3rd.

Speaking of Hanifin, that fanbase was CONVINCED a magical extension would massively increase his value too. I told them time and again the same thing I’m telling you</div></div>

The price for Hanifin was for 20 or so games and he controlled where he went because of trade protection. That is the main problem in getting value in most trades because the player can simply say no so you are negotiating against yourself as a team.

Karlsson was worth less last year because of a flat cap. Lots of teams were interested in him but simply couldn't make it work because absorbing his cap number was too difficult. The cap going up makes it much easier for teams this offseason. The contract isn't all that bad either. If you look at who is available as a right shot defenseman this season as a free agent the pickings are slim. Montour is the only guy capable of potentially being a difference maker. If Karlsson was a free agent this year and was willing to sign for only 3 seasons which is what is left on his contract the price would be in the neighborhood of what he is making now.