NJD and Seattle 100% decline

EZ no from Jersey

wow, yeah these all happen for sure.

1. Jake is not coming back please folks drop that

2. Brodie does nothing for this team.

3. Edmonton has no reason to do that. Buying out Campbell is an easy move

4. Why would Seattle even think about that and why would EK waive the NMC?

5. Dubois is exactly the kind of player we don’t need, overpaid, overrated, and about himself.

6. NJ won’t trade Holtz

7. You did an undersell on Eller.

-Maybe. However I don't see a huge market for him at his age. Many teams are going to need to fill out their roster with minimum salary players. Nashville can take on his full salary and the Penguins need to get younger. A top 100 pick and freeing up minutes for younger players is a win.

Marcus Pettersson is good. He isn’t top 12 1st+top prospect for 1 year good

I'm sure any team trading for Pettersson is going to extend him. He's a guy that a team is going to pencil in till he's 35 if they acquire him. The value of a 12-15 overall pick is relative to where you are as a team. If you are a serious contender then a player like Pettersson is far more valuable because that pick is probably at least 2 years away from even playing in the NHL and then another 2 years away from being a productive player if they don't bust out to begin with. At age 22 you aren't really a top prospect anymore. You're approaching the point where you're as close to unrestricted free agency as you were to being drafted. Top prospects as forwards especially aren't still in flux usually a season away from requiring waivers. Holtz has potential but I would say it's a massive win if he can reach what Rakell has accomplished. No guarantee that happens though. In my eyes, New Jersey doesn't need to focus on players who's main value is offense. They have a lot of that already. Goaltending and defense are their issues. They have some extremely talented offensive defenseman but defensively are lacking. Guys like Pettersson and Esa Lindell will always be undervalued because it's hard to look at a stat sheet for a shut down defenseman. Especially one that skates well and the puck isn't a grenade when it's on his stick and is still in his prime. There are 20 teams looking for that kind of player and if Pittsburgh doesn't get that kind of return then I assume they just extend him themselves since he won't break the bank and has skills that will allow him to be valuable for the next 6-7 years.

Nashville isnt the place for eller

Marcus Pettersson has 1 year left on his deal. He is a rental.

Teams do not trade high 1sts or prospects like holtz for rebtals

I'm sure if the Penguins move on from Pettersson, a contract extension will be prearranged with his new team. It would be a draft day deal and he can be extended July 1st. If he was valued as a pure rental then they would just wait till the trade deadline to move him because you can probably net a later first round pick and a prospect for just a few months. He's younger and better than Tanev who went for a second and a prospect. Hampus Lindholm is a more comparable player when he was traded and he got a first and 2 seconds at the deadline. The price is high for these types of players because they are so hard to find.

“Traded with extension” is not a common thing or something that meaningfully increases a players value.

Hampus Lindholm (50% retained) got a late 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and mid prospect along with a multi year cap dump.

Take out the cost of the cap dump and retention (which you are not offering here) and you’re at a late 1st+mid Prospect for Pettersson.

Again, significantly less than holtz+high 1st

Allowing a player to talk contract extension before a trade absolutely increases the return. Most teams don't allow it because they want to sign the player to begin with. The Matthew Tkachuk return was massive on paper because he was getting an extension. It didn't work out because Huberdeau but it was a big get at the time because Tkachuk was going to Florida for 8 years in his prime. Same thing with Seth Jones when he was traded. That return for Lindholm was for 20-25 games only. An extension was not guaranteed. Getting a similar player at age 28 and getting that player for 5 or 6 more productive years is worth a huge cost. In terms of left handed defenseman under 30 in free agency the main guy is Noah Hanifin and his contract will come in at 7.5-8.5 per for 7 years. He is certainly a better offensive defenseman but not as good defensively.

You also need to factor in where the team is and what their needs are. The last thing New Jersey needs is another mid first draft pick. That player will be years away and their window which is now. That player they draft probably isn't going to be on the radar of the NHL team for 2-3 years if he even makes it. At that time he's also probably another 2 years from doing anything meaningful. Holtz will likely not be a top 6 player for them anytime soon with the players they have ahead of him. They don't need more offensive minded players. The Devils took a massive step back from last season because they didn't address their top needs which are goaltending and strong defensive players. Their big move was getting Tofolli which wasn't a pressing need for them. They have two 20 year old defenseman so they desperately need another adult on the blue line to help insulate those players as you don't want them having to play heavy minutes against players like MacKinnon, McDavid and Matthews. Getting one in their prime is expensive. You aren't trading for a 33 or 34 year old at the deadline. It's basically a player who will be productive for the majority of Jack Hughes contract.

Matthew Tkachuk was an RFA. Completely different than a UFA.

Teams don’t just throw away assets and massively overpay because they “don’t need 1sts”.

NJD will not trade Alex holtz and a high 1st for 1 year of Marcus Pettersson.

The penguins do not need to bring Guentzel back in order to extend Crosby. He will sign an extension this summer and that will be that. All the BS noise around that can stop.

UFA or RFA are comparable. Tkachuk was happy to accept arbitration and play out the year in free agency in Calgary. At that point he's the same as Pettersson. A year away from free agency. Same as Seth Jones was. Those guys all like Pettersson had one year of control remaining and were south of 30. Signed extensions and got massive returns.

No. RFA and UFA control is completely different. Marcus Pettersson also isn’t a star.

He will fetch a normal rental return, and if he fits with the team, they will look to extend him.

In no scenario will he return Alex holtz+a high 1st.

Youre also going to be immensely disappointed by a Karlsson return. He will also not return anything even close to that

There is zero difference in terms of a player who is a RFA and a year from UFA status and player who is under contract and a year away from UFA staus. Both can sign long term contracts. I gave you an example of each in Seth Jones and Matthew Tkachuk. One was a RFA with one year of control before free agency and the other was under contract for one season before free agency.

I don't see that return as being spectacular by any means. An older defenseman on the last year of his deal used to balance the cap number, two picks after 50 and a player in Wright who has severely disappointed thus far. For a player who a year ago put up 100 points as a defenseman.

People fall in love with prospects but the reality is by year 3 or 4 they don't really hold the amount of value most think they do. Ty Smith was a mid first round pick, was one of Pittsburgh's top prospects a year ago and was on waivers the next year and a throw in on a trade. Seattle can hold onto Wright but how does he fit with the team? They have two young centers they value more and he hasn't shown anything at the NHL level and pedestrian in the AHL. Francis isn't a fan of him since he's a one way player and he doesn't seem like a core piece to them. If they decide he isn't a core piece going forward it makes sense to move him now because a year from now he won't have much value.

Pittsburgh as a whole have struggled they are at the bottom of the powerplay rankings which cost them a playoff spot this year. The system was a mess but Karlsson still had a solid season. He's a first pairing right shot defenseman which is one of the hardest things to find in the NHL. Pittsburgh is a bad fit for him because it will never be his team and they are simply too slow. He can easily be a 70+ point guy next season. The only real issue with Karlsson is his contract. A lot of teams like him but can't fit him into their cap structure because of who they already have under contract. Seattle is a team that could absorb the entire cap hit without issue and still have money left over to round out the roster. He's also a superstar which the team needs.

As for Pettersson not being a star, that is true but doesn't really matter either. Adam Foote wasn't a star. Neither are players similar to Pettersson in Lindholm and Lindell. However those teams value those types of players immensely because of what they bring to the table. Being able to play against the other teams star players and not getting caved in is valuable. It just doesn't show up on the box score.

Detroit thought they made out like bandits on their return for Hronek at last years deadline. He has been such a key piece for Vancouver this season. He's gotten a lot of points because of Hughes but he allowed Hughes to get to the next level also.

Last year Karlsson, coming off a 100 point season, was acquired for a 1st, 2nd and dumping approximately 20 million or so in cap space. I’d wager his actual value was close to nothing when you consider the cap dumps.

Now you expect a 2nd, 3rd, cost controlled dman rental, and a top prospect in hockey, after a much worse season from Karlsson. Ideally you could get a team to take on Karlsson full contract for future considerations.

Comparing Ty smith as an asset to Shane Wright shows a significant lack of knowledge.

RFAs do not hold the same value as UFAs. This is an undeniable fact.

No team will pay a high 1st+top prospect for Pettersson. Look at the Hanifin return. 2026 1st, 25 year old 7th dman, 3rd.

Speaking of Hanifin, that fanbase was CONVINCED a magical extension would massively increase his value too. I told them time and again the same thing I’m telling you

Hronek had 2 years of term+RFA control, and was an RHD.

The price for Hanifin was for 20 or so games and he controlled where he went because of trade protection. That is the main problem in getting value in most trades because the player can simply say no so you are negotiating against yourself as a team.

Karlsson was worth less last year because of a flat cap. Lots of teams were interested in him but simply couldn't make it work because absorbing his cap number was too difficult. The cap going up makes it much easier for teams this offseason. The contract isn't all that bad either. If you look at who is available as a right shot defenseman this season as a free agent the pickings are slim. Montour is the only guy capable of potentially being a difference maker. If Karlsson was a free agent this year and was willing to sign for only 3 seasons which is what is left on his contract the price would be in the neighborhood of what he is making now.

Marcus Pettersson and Noah Hanifin have the exact same trade protections.

If you’re somehow convinced Erik Karlsson has increased has value after having a significantly worse season than last year and being a year older I don’t know what to tell you.

Speaking of UFAs, prices on rentals (which Pettersson is) are generally LOWER in the offseason. Because you have to beat out every UFA that can be obtained for free, in this case Brady Skjei and Noah Hanifin as LD competition.

Rentals go for higher prices at the deadline, because the buying team saves money. On Pettersson, the difference between buying in the offseason and buying at the deadline would be about 3 million dollars in real money

While they both have a 8 team no trade list their is a huge difference between a trade at the deadline and one in the offseason. At the trade deadline a lot of teams are out of it and have no use for Hanafin. One of the most interested teams in Hanifan last summer was Pittsburgh. They had zero interest in him at the deadline. Deadline deals are also pretty hard to maneuver in a tight cap situation since you usually need multiple teams to retain salary to make it work. None of these are usually issues in the offseason. Pettersson is also still young enough to have value to a rebuilding team since he has 5-6 prime years in him most likely. The majority of players who have an impact on a game don't make it to free agency until they are in their 30's.

Value of players is not a straight line. Many factors besides performance exist. The flat cap for multiple years impacted a lot of teams and made trades incredibly difficult. Everything pretty much had to be dollar in, dollar out. Most teams planned 3-4 years ahead and expected the cap to rise and when it didn't it severely impacted what they could do. Those restrictions are off for the league this year as even an additional 4 million means a lot. The cap was 83.5 million this year, it jumps to 87.5 million next year and 92 million the following year. A team can basically add Karlssons salary by 6 million falling off in players salaries departures for 2024-25 and then 1.5 million in 2025-26. That is significantly different than adding Karlsson during a flat cap. I suspect the trade market will be much more lively this summer because the free agent market is pretty bare. To secure Noah Hanafin it may cost as much as 8.5 x 7 years for an offensive defenseman that has never passed 50 points. Karlsson will likely surpass that total this season. Karlsson is a poor fit on Pittsburgh just like he was on San Jose for a time with Burns. It doesn't work having multiple right shot offensive defenseman on the same team. The power play can't function with both. However lots of teams can use a first pairing right shot defenseman that can run the power play. Ottawa, Seattle, Toronto and even Carolina if they move Burns all have showed interest in him in the past and have cap room. While he makes 10 million, in any deal there will likely be offset by a contract coming back to Pittsburgh. I could easily see Ottawa deciding to do a change of scenery trade and doing a Chabot for Karlsson trade which is more valuable in my mind than the trade I proposed. Circling back, value is not just about performance it's about a teams situation. teams like Ottawa and Seattle really can't afford to miss the playoffs again next year. They need wins a lot more than they need prospects and draft picks. The goal in hockey is to win a championship, not be the joke teams that stink but own loads of draft picks. In Arizona they may not care but fans in Detroit, Buffalo and Montreal won't tolerate their rebuilds much longer. No team is going to mortgage their future to get Karlsson but there will be enough interest if he's made available that a better return than it cost to acquire him isn't out of the question. The lack of return last year had more to do with the environment teams were dealing with because of the cap more than anything.

Free agency is nearly always a losing battle. It's not really free because for the most part you almost always overpay to obtain the premier players. You give up way too much money for way too much term because most guys are already in their 30's. Skjei and Hanafin are good players but they are different players than Pettersson. Skeji specifically really started to excel in Carolina because Slavin takes the tough minutes. Guys like Slavin, Lindholm, Pettersson, Lindell and Gustav Forsling are massively valuable because their value exceeds goals and assists. They are extremely hard to find and replace so they get significant premiums for that skillset. If Pettersson is traded it will be with an extension or Pittsburgh will just keep him and extend him themselves because he is still young enough to be productive when they come out of their retool or rebuild. The only way he moves is if he says I don't want to be in Pittsburgh and at that point they move him at the deadline if they fall out again next year or trading him returns meaningful assets that could accelerate a rebuild. A team acquiring him will be one that values a defenseman that can play 22-25 hard minutes a night on a top pairing without power play cookies.