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LikeAMoth

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Mar. 5, 2023
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St. Louis Blues
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Forum: NHLMar. 10, 2023 at 11:00 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2023 at 12:15 p.m.
Thread: Skaters I want during offseason No prices What is the cost Includes ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stadel</b></div><div>The "rooooomers" suggest Johnson will sign with BUF after his season ends.</div></div>



And if not Buffalo gets a compensatory 2nd, which is cool. He was the 31st pick so he was basically a 2nd rounder anyway (obviously not but anyway). Prob best he signs there, atleast not a total loss if he doesn't as they'd get the 2nd.

But yeah I would not be shocked if he signed with Buffalo. Just incase he isn't - I'd like the Blues to pay the fair price for his rights assuming there is indication he would sign.

Due to that, I am assuming he costs more than a 2nd rounder. How about a late first rounder instead?

He signs with Buf
or
He doesnt and Buf gets a 2nd rounder
or
He indicates he wont sign so Buf trades him for a late 1st.

I'd pay that price if it came to it.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2023 at 12:09 p.m.
Thread: Skaters I want during offseason No prices What is the cost Includes ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>Except that’s not who he is. He’s not a shut down defender by any stretch.

There is a distinct possibility he ends up as 2nd line LW with with Pasta/Zacha next year depending on how things play out. 3C is also an option if both Bergy and DK retire and they are unable to add a C.</div></div>

I have watched quite a bit of him - he is behind the play quite often. I do not mean he is fully 2-way and always defensive - I def worded that wrong. He is just good at it - good on the forecheck, good in the neutral zone, physical, but then he is solid offensively too: good netfront - good hand-eye on tips/netfront plays,

He reminds me of David Backes.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2023 at 11:40 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 8, 2023 at 10:33 a.m.
Thread: Krug and Provorov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>.

Provorov hasn't been good. Are there mitigating factors? Absolutely- lack of quality teammates and lack of rush based systems Provorov would likely thrive in. Do I think Provorov could be better on the Blues than for the Flyers? Absolutely. This does not change that Provorov has been bad this year, despite the circumstances. If you're trading for a player who has been bad, and hoping that they'll be good under different circumstances, that to me is a reclamation project. Ice time does not inspire me much, I take that as less of a function of Provorov's talent and more of a function of "who else is eating tough minutes for the Flyers if not him"

.

I mean obviously it's not "move him now or you keep him for 4 more years". It's probably never going to be harder to move him now. He's been bad, injury riddled, and like you say, the real money is tough the next two years let alone the cap hit and trade clause. But in two years, the real money goes down and the trade clause goes modified. One could argue it makes more sense for the Blues to eat the tough years on Krug when they're going to be bad anyway and there's a good chance it gets easier, not harder, to move him in two years.

.

In his prime, in theory. But what does it benefit the Blues to have a player in their prime if they are going to be bad during a good chunk of it?



Fair enough logic I suppose.



I'm not yet convinced they do intend to keep Parayko, but otherwise I do agree with this, the players they have paired him with have been awful.



28 years old and in need of a new contract, which the Blues would be obligated to give him if that's when they're back to contention. 28 is the age that Krug, Parayko, and Faulk were when they singed their contract, and three years later people are ready to fire at least two of those guys into the sun. I'm just not eager to be in a position where we're potentially locking in another huge defense contract for a 28 year old non-elite player right as our window opens because I'm watching those kinds of contracts slam our window shut right now.

I'm not opposed to the Blues using their picks to acquire certain players to speed up the rebuild, I just don't believe the potential reward of no Krug and possibly a good Provorov is worth the price of those picks.</div></div>

I hear ya, makes sense. I wonder how fans would view STL's defense if the top pairing was an above average top pairing. I think it would unlock a lot for a lot of other skaters.

I'll be trying to find good fits from what I mentioned: around 25 - preferably younger, other team likely going to rebuild, fits a specific need on the team.

Depending on what happens to Boston's salary cap, I think the Blues should try to acquire Trent Frederic. He is stuck behind Charlie Coyle on their depth chart and is kicking ass. But Charlie Coyle is having a career year as 3C, and I think he will always stay in the 2-way shutdown role because he is extremely good at it. So what do the Bruins do with Frederic - he is due an RFA deal, and can force 2 years - meaning he could walk to free agency. The cap situation is not doing the Bruins any favors. If they are cap squeezed, the Bruins could decide a trade is better than the raise Frederic is due, or the higher pay it would take to get a term besides 2.

I also think the Blues should see what it would take to trade for Lawson Crouse of Arizona. He is good at something a lot of our top 6 is not good at: 5v5 goals. He has 1 less than Kyrou, but costs roughly half against the cap, and he hits. He would be expensive. He is a solid core piece.

I'd also like the Blues to look into Detroit's right side defense pipeline. They accumulated a lot of defenseman the previous drafts. Perhaps we could swap a forward prospect for a d prospect. The Blues and Wings trade a lot. They have a surplus, we have a surplus.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 7, 2023 at 12:17 p.m.
Thread: Krug and Provorov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>noted</b></div><div>If they are not competing for a cup in 4-5 years - that's rebuilding Mothy...I never said they are going to tear it down, if they trade picks, it will be for younger players with control.
He said in interview on 101 ESPN that they were rebuilding. Basically said next year will be eval to see what they have. If they do not make the growing strides that he is hoping for next year though, the rebuild could take longer. That would mean possibly trading the Binnington's and Buchnevich's. Hear whatever you want but I didn't make anything up...</div></div>

Sorry if I was rude, I can't even interact on hockey twitter because there are so many negative and rude - I am auto defensive. The term rebuild to me has a very clear definition. A proper rebuild is the replacement of the core through draft and development.

Unfortunately, St. Louis cannot afford a rebuild financially. This is why St. Louis takes the middle-road. This is why St. Louis never (very rarely) picks in the top 10. This is the burden of a mid-market team.

To give you an example of a proper rebuild, see the Buffalo Sabres.

The Sabres had a sub-.500 record for a very very long time. 2014/15-2021/22.

Eight years, as I described in my previous reply.

During that time, they traded multiple core pieces, such as Ryan O'Rielly at the age of 27 for futures. That was 5 years ago.

Presently, the Sabres have 4 defensemen they drafted during this time in their lineup, including two first overalls. The vast majority of their lineup are either players they drafted or players they acquired, such as Tage Thompson, when they tore it down.

They finally now have a record above .500.

St. Louis will not do this. They cannot financially.

Instead they will rotate youth, similar to how Florida dumped Weeger and Huberdeau on Calgary for Tkachuk.

They will trade off their older expiring skaters (Tarasenko, O'Rielly, a defenseman, maybe Saad, etc.) and replace them, as Doug said, with players around the age of 25.

St. Louis' roster will change drastically over 2 years, but they will not be waiting to populate the roster in the fashion of a rebuild. They are going to target skaters such as Provorov from teams who are going to rebuild, and rotate out older skaters. Over time, this years 1st and the previously selected skaters will join the team, and it will become a playoff bound team, and if Doug builds his 3rd stanley cup winner, they will be contenders.

I highly doubt Doug takes any more picks in the draft than any normal year. I feel it is nearly certain the later first picks will be moved for assets.

To identify what may happen, you should look to teams who could be entering a rebuild, see which skaters are 23-27, and put them on a list of "this guy maybe".
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 7, 2023 at 9:13 a.m.
Thread: Krug and Provorov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>noted</b></div><div>Blues GM admitted they are rebuilding yesterday and not interested in expensive short term contracts. They won’t be trading their picks for this.</div></div>

I have a hard time interacting with sports fans online. It seems there are 2 categories; oblivious and make stuff up. It is most irritating when it is make stuff up person.

Doug Armstrong never said the Blues were rebuilding.

If the Blues were entering a rebuild phase, skaters such as Binnington and Buchnevich would be sold for future assets.

The Blues are shifting. They are going to end up offloading a few older skaters, replacing them with younger skaters.

Doug did say that he was targeting players around the age of 25. Then, with those few new younger skaters, and the previous draft selections in development, the Blues will have established a foundation.

It will take 2 years. From the 2 year point on, the roster should change less, and the young skaters will grow into new roles. Entirely possible to return to legitimate cup contention in 4-5 years.

If the Blues draft with all of their picks the next 2 years, it will be 4-6 years until a foundation is set, and 6-8 years until cup contention.

<strong>The St. Louis market is not strong enough for the that.
</strong>
This is why mid-market teams attempt to be competitive every year, while major market teams afford the luxury of a proper rebuild.

Unless Doug can't find a deal, the Blues will be trading picks for players. They will target players around the age of 25, per Doug. If you want to get rid of somebody like Krug, you're gonna have to pay.

This player is only expensive because of Krug's contract.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 7, 2023 at 12:32 a.m.
Thread: Krug and Provorov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I get the comparison to the Schenn trade but there's a couple key differences:

1. The player they got from Philly (Schenn) was performing decently well as a 50 point 2C before the Blues acquired him. Provorov might be better on a different team but he's been as bad as Krug this year, so they shouldn't pay a Schenn-esque price for him.
2. The Blues of 2017 were a team that had several good pieces and just needed to rebuild their center depth to be competitive. The Blues of 2023 are nowhere near close to being competitive with or without Provorov. By the time the Blues might be roughly back to contention level, assuming a lot breaks their way, Provorov's contract will be up.
3. Krug has way more term and is way more expensive than Lehtera ever was (not just in cap hit, but in real salary too).

The Blues need the picks now, and they don't need an expensive acquisition on defense now. They could stand to dump Krug and Provorov is an interesting reclamation project, if it was a basically even swap, but that doesn't make sense for Philly. If they have to pay to get rid of Krug, they're better off keeping him and selling one of the defenseman people actually want.</div></div>

1. Provorov is not a reclamation project. He has spent ~30% of the season paired with a 22 year old, another ~30% with Tony DeAngelo. His career average ice time is 24 minutes. Pair him with Parayko. Let either side be an activation threat.

The Blues would have to pay a Schenn-esque price to dump Krug's term. If ya don't want to pay the price to pass the risk of 4 more years at over 6 million, including real cash out of 8 million and 8,5 million the next 2 seasons, then you keep him for 4 years.

2. Provorov is 26.

3. Exactly why you're paying one way or another, either on your roster or not.

If the Blues intend to keep Parayko they should equalize his pairing with a skater who compliments his strengths.

The Blues do not need picks right now, apart from normal team building. They are not rebuilding. They intend to be competitive next season, albeit likely to miss the playoffs. Their roster will change drastically over the next 2 years, however, at that stage they will have multiple new core pieces in place. Provorov would be 28. Not exactly old.

In this scenario, the Blues still have 7 picks in the first 3 rounds of the next 2 drafts, including 2 firsts.
Forum: NHLMar. 5, 2023 at 7:11 p.m.
Thread: 2022-23 NHL Season Discussion Thread #13: Happy trade deadline day!
It is about a week or two away where if trends do not reverse, somebody way more famous than me will say "What happens if the Rangers and/or Lightning miss the playoffs?"

Neither NYR or TBL is above .500 its last ten, Buffalo is 6-4, Senators are 7-2-1.

11 point span.

Senators 1 game at hand, Buffalo 2. Possible for both Senators and Buffalo to be 1 Regulation Win behind the Rangers if games at hand are Ws.

Buffalo plays the Rangers twice before the season ends. The Senators play the Lightning twice before the season ends.

All but the Lightning have a very challenging schedule their next 10 games. The Lightning get 2 against the Habs, and 1 against the Hawks and Philly. If the Lightning drop the ball during the next 10 games, the remainder of their season is playoff teams except 1 match against Detroit, so they should try not to do that unless they want a big headache.

The final week of the season sees a few matchups between this group of teams, including the final game of Ottawa and Buffalo's seasons being the same game. Entirely possible that game impacts multiple team's playoff spots and seedings.