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Pmwalker

Pmwalker
Member Since
Apr. 12, 2019
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Philadelphia Flyers
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 6, 2020 at 6:23 p.m.
Thread: mathews trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>More involvement due to the team having 2 lines capable of playing NHL hockey and still he was a negative player at 5v5. He's also older. He's a good player no question, elite for sure but Matthews is better. You can't call yourself a Leafs fan of you think otherwise. It's wrong and proves you are just trolling</div></div>

Again, you're out with the argument that «if you don't think the best player on your 2nd favorite team isn't better than one other means you're not a fan of that team»

You're the troll here, does me thinking that Panarin isn't better than, say, MacKinnon mean that I'm not a NYR fan? Of course it bloody well doesn't, you're again relying on emotion you're the troll here not me.
Everytime you're confronted with the FACT that the Leafs' D-core isn't good enough to win the cup because Holl for instance is a number 5 on 90% of contending teams you fall back on a bullcrap argument like oh well the Leafs had decent D numbers under Keefe» which, spoiler alert, doesn't prove anything.


The fact that almost no TML fan on here can heavily criticize an aspect of the team without being called a non-fan or a hater means something about the TML fanbase


Does me thinking, as a NYR FAN, am thinking (I certainly am) that our defensive structure is garbage and needs to be abolished because we won't win anything win it mean that I'm a troll who hates his team? NO it doesn't, again, you're the troll on here along with Jack and every other Leafs fans on here who even refuse to admit that their team has SERIOUS issues that Dubas hasn't fixed at all since becoming GM
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2020 at 7:57 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2020 at 7:50 p.m.
Thread: First round choke and lafreniere
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>So GAR is usefull but it also has some glaring weaknesses and that really becomes apparent when you start digging into the Islanders as an example.

The following quote was taken from this article <a href="https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/6/16/15774850/advanced-stats-102-what-is-gar-dawson-sprigings-nhl" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/6/16/15774850/advanced-stats-102-what-is-gar-dawson-sprigings-nhl</a>

"While I think the stat is tremendously useful, there are a few things you have to keep in mind when using it. For one, GAR values are estimates - because it uses regression techniques in some places, there is inherent uncertainty in the values output by the system. Those error bars are hidden from view - we don’t really get to see them, and as a result, you have to be careful not to make conclusions based on GAR values that are relatively close to one another.

Along these same lines, sometimes it spits out counterintuitive values, and it’s hard to see exactly why. The complexity of the model means there’s no longer easy mappings from things we consider ‘inputs’ to player value (points, possession ability, etc.) to the GAR output. They’re obviously correlated, but there are now contextual factors (teammates, competition, score usage) included that make the mapping from input to output more opaque. In that way, the model is perhaps more opaque than one would like. However, this is no different from the heavily accepted WAR stats used in baseball. You can break them down into their core components, but it takes a fair bit of effort.

When I asked Sprigings what he thought the biggest weakness of the stat is, he mentions a more conceptual issue, noting that the stat straddles the line between being a measure of ‘true talent’ as opposed to ‘the value a player provided’. Parts of the even strength offense and defense are more a measure of ‘true talent’ but the rest tends to be a measure of what happened. Sprigings brought up an example where assists per 60 minutes are used as one of the inputs to assess even strength offense. That is a measure of what happened. However, Sprigings feels it would make more sense to use something like expected assists, which is a more apt measure of talent.

GAR, in my opinion, also struggles a little bit in divvying up credit between teammates. Sprigings uses robust mathematical techniques to try and separate the effects from teammates, but it is a non-trivial problem, and even the most robust method may struggle if players spend all of their time on ice together and have very little time apart. This can be more pronounced in situations where one of the players doesn’t have a lot of historical data to go off of (for example, rookies)."

What tells me, is that GAR kind of correlates results without showing what made those results which would then ignore certain red flags about a players season infavour of actual results. So Rielly for example he's very obviously more talented than Pulock but the defensive numbers of the leafs were worse and GAR is based too much on end results rather than what made up the results.

So with all that in mind, and diving into the on ice play metrics of different players, you are 1000% looking for confirmation bias by ignoring every single red flag in the Islanders play and only accepting stats that make you feel more secure in your opinion. Which is exactly what confirmation bias is.</div></div>

That’s one stat down, now do WAR and SPAR! Cmon buddy it seems like you have all day!
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2020 at 7:38 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2020 at 7:35 p.m.
Thread: First round choke and lafreniere
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>I don't spend money on those sites so I can't confirm what you are saying, but like everything else, you ignore everything in favour of whatever 1 singular stat makes you feel better. Expected goals is one of the best factors to determine a players ability. If you create enough offense and defend well enough to have the positive expected goal shares, over 100 games, that results in wins. The Islanders are a negative team in that regard, eventually the lucks going to run out. But please ignore all those stats, insult me for not believing in advanced stats and then use 1 or 2 isolated numbers to make yourself feel good. You're a joke and all the say that.</div></div>

One or two advanced stats? WAR, GAR, XGAR, SPAR are all better indicators of a good defenseman than the metrics you are using.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2020 at 7:28 p.m.
Thread: First round choke and lafreniere
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Pelech also has negative metrics in most important stats. His PDO is above 1 as well. The team just was never that good, for over a year they outscored their expected goal share and that just doesn't last. Its like when a player scores a bunch of goals one year but had a shooting % that was incredibly high, it will average out and you'll see them fall back to earth. Like William Karlsson, he shot way above his career normals and when it fell back to normal numbers he was a 25 goal scorer. Still had the same number of chances and shots but didn't score at a ridiculous percentage.</div></div>

Interesting, pelech 3 year xGAR (even strength defense) is 3.9, which is better than 91% of NHL defenseman. Keep it up with the confirmation bias!