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Shanesaw9
Habs 2010
Member Since
May 10, 2020
Favourite Team
Montreal Canadiens
Forum Posts
1569
Posts per Day
1.1
POSTS
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:45 p.m.
Thread:
Stinky Stank for Guhle Straight Up
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Steve_321</b></div><div>Guhle plays on the offside.</div></div>
Yeah not very well... his pairing with Matheson was outscored 22 to 16 at 5v5 together and expected goals were tilted too.
Meanwhile Matheson - Barron or Guhle - Barron outscored opponents 19 - 16 together. A difference of 9 goals on the season which is a few wins for MTL.
It's statistically proven that LHD + RHD pairings perform better in general than same handed pairings.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:38 p.m.
Thread:
Stinky Stank for Guhle Straight Up
Dallas declines, I think they would want a top RHD if they were trading Stank, not Guhle.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:36 p.m.
Thread:
Trade down with Ottawa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>p1015983</b></div><div>Habs are at the point where they don't need quantity, they need quality. If anything they try and trade up to 2 or 3 for Demidov. Adding a 2nd round pick doesn't have any value to the Habs.</div></div>
I agree... but if MTL's desired pick is Iginla (assuming at this point that the better forward options are gone) then why reach for him at 5 if you could trade down and still get your guy.
Based on how this thread discussion went it seems like there is no way Ottawa would want to trade up anyways.
Regarding MTL trading up... easier said than done. I don't see any of the rebuilders picking before them wanting to trade back based on the players available to them at 1 - 4.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 11:44 a.m.
Thread:
Trade down with Ottawa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Sens taking a LD would be stupid.
They don’t need a marginal upgrade on Chabot/Chychrun as much as they need an upgrade on JBD</div></div>
If Ottawa needs RHD not LHD then would they just take Parekh at 7th? I believe Utah would draft Buium from U of Denver.
Edit: Or even Silayev to go with their other Russian D man drafted last year by Arizona.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sun. at 7:56 p.m.
Thread:
Realistic Rebuild 17
Why trade Kovacevic and Harris for such a meaningless return?
I'd rather see if Anderson can bounce back, if he does he would be easier to move with less term as in a year as well.
Edit: Also, what part of $7.75M × 3 years for Stamkos is supposed to be realistic? Not a chance TB doesn't beat that offer with their advantage on taxes.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sun. at 11:19 a.m.
Thread:
Draft 2024 We have a trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>It's not a financial or even on-ice-performance issue . . . it's a cap-displacement issue. The Kings don't have enough cap space to both add a winger to upgrade DuBois (for example, re-sign Viktor Arvidsson) AND upgrade and fill the goalie spots. That cap hit of $8.5 million makes it impossible to trade for Linus Ullmark (who should be on the market) or Juuse Saros (who might be, although I personally doubt it).
Why isn't Price's LTIR stay covered by insurance?</div></div>
It is insured, minor addition for MTL to get out of LTIR overages with all their ELC's.
I would suggest the trade I proposed makes it easier to accomplish the things you want.
1. Buyout Dubois = $1.3M cap hit next year, but a penalty over 14 years.
2. Trade Dubois at 1/3 retained = $2.833M cap hit next 7 years (same net total over the first 7 for option 1 but nothing more after 7 years).
3. Trade Dubois for Dvorak and buyout Anderson = $4.75M cap hit next year, but Anderson buyout is up after 7 years and net total is lower.
I don't think you can accomplish the things you want short term with option 3 as you only gain $3.75M.
Option 2 is a balance of both other options, you would gain $5.667M in cap space and that would be consistent over 7 seasons.
Option 1 gives you the most short terms savings, but is the least desirable long term.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sun. at 10:51 a.m.
Thread:
Draft 2024 We have a trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>I would accept that offer as the Kings GM, but I don't think that Rob Blake is in a position to admit his mistake.
We would buy Anderson out immediately, and Dvorak has only one season left on his contract.</div></div>
Ok, if you buyout Anderson then perhaps it is a better alternative to keeping Dubois. Net cost over 6 years is $15.78M vs the buyout on Dubois which would be $19.8M over 7 years plus another $7.9M over the next 7 years.
However, MTL simply wouldn't do this as it's way too much risk long term for them and the short term gain (of dumping Dvorak) doesn't fit their window. I don't think anyone in the league would take Dubois at $8.5M × 7 right now.
An alternative I would propose would be Dubois (1/3 retained) for Price's LTIR contract. Net cost over 7 years for LA would be $19.8M but they'd be done after 7 years instead of 14 (buyout option). It's only $4M more over 7 years for LA vs this trade offer, but for MTL taking PLD at an AAV of $5.667M is much more reasonable.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sun. at 10:36 a.m.
Thread:
Draft 2024 We have a trade
Neither team does this.
LA would be in a WORSE cap situation short term with Anderson and Dvorak than just keeping Dubois and MTL would he taking on significant long term risk taking Dubois at his full term cap hit.
LA could just buyout Dubois and it would be a better deal, and MTL could then sign him to a lesser AAV or short term and that would also be a better deal for them... this offer makes no sense.
Edit: To clarify, LA would never make there team worse short term (the next 3 years). While they still have Koptitar, Doughty, etc.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sun. at 10:26 a.m.
Thread:
Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I know when overage penalties are applied, I said the contract ends in 2 years and as we already determined a 1 mil overage penalty isn’t a hindrance for the 3rd most valuable franchise in the league. There is more than one way to look at LTIR contracts (as with everything else in the world) I choose to focus on the positives, you can focus on the negatives if you like but that is a dark way to live my friends</div></div>
Again, what positives? The only positive you've listed is you somehow believe if MTL makes the playoffs that Price is going to return when he hasn't played for 3 years now...
The other misinformed positive you listed was that it allows MTL to exceed the cap by $10.5M... let's do the math on that one... if you can exceed the cap by $10.5M and Price's cap hit is $10.5M, there's no benefit at all to that now is there?
You still refuse to acknowledge that a $1M bonus overage is a hindrance this year (even though it is a small hindrance). The fact that in 2025-26 MTL is facing up to $4.6M in bonus overages is lost on you, and then you literally said that it doesn't matter in 2 years because again you aren't keeping up to the fact that bonus overages penalties are applied the following season...
The funniest thing is you literally posted a Dubois trade a few days ago where you took Dubois at full cap hit! $8.5M × 7 and you traded actual assets for him in Newhook and a 2nd round pick.
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/829111?post_id=4866409
Now a few days later I make a post getting Dubois for free at $5.667M × 7 years while dumping Price and getting out of LTIR and you're trying to argue MTL would rather keep Price. At this point you have to be trolling... if you haven't got it yet you never will.
Edit: Actually even on this post you claimed it would be better for MTL to trade Dvorak, Primeau, and a 2nd round pick than to trade Price's LTIR contract! The fact that you still haven't changed your stance when I've tried going through lengths to help you understand LTIR says it all. You're either lost or trolling.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sun. at 1:50 a.m.
Thread:
Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>In 2 years time (2025-26) Price's contract ends, so again not a hindrance</div></div>
Wrong again, as the bonus overages are a penalty in the following season... you're still being obtuse just for the sake of it. Just admit it would be favorable to trade that contract.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 5:02 p.m.
Thread:
Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I am not being obtuse, I am just saying that in Carey's own words he has always maintained that at some point he may be able to return in some capacity. Does that mean he will, no but it also doesn’t mean he won't try, especially if the team is in a position to make another serious run at a cup before his contract runs out or he officially retires (whichever comes first).
Also do you seriously think that a 1 mil cap overage penalty is that much of a hindrance to the thrid richest team in the league who made over 265 million in last season and has a net value of 2.3 billion? Thats like a $1.50 and a Slim Jim to them!</div></div>
Nothing to do with cost, everything to do with cap hit. In 1 or 2 years when this team might be competitive they will want to maximize there cap. Not be penalized for bonus overages.
Price is not playing again, arguing that is pointless
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 12:21 p.m.
Thread:
Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Cornbreadnhl</b></div><div>To think the Kings would buy out a guy they just signed long term after 1 season is ABSURD. Same goes for trading him with 7 years of retention, simply ABSURD.</div></div>
They have a big decision to make before Dubois turns 26 on June 24th. If he isn't bought out before then we know LA is stuck with him for better or worse.
<em>The sunk cost fallacy is our tendency to continue with something we've invested money, effort, or time into—even if the current costs outweigh the benefits.</em>
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 12:18 p.m.
Thread:
Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>1. Price never ruled out playing post season games, his exact words were his body can't take the rigors of a full NHL season, I am pretty sure the competitor in him will try to play if the Habs make the post season and he is still part of the team.
2. The <strong>Sanley Cup</strong> is the only positive a team needs to use LTIR to their advantage, if not then they probalby should go find another sports team to manage</div></div>
I would be shocked if Carey Price came back to play in the playoffs with Montreal when he hasn't practiced or skated with the team in 3 years. He's done man, stop being obtuse.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 11:58 a.m.
Thread:
Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GuyGuyGuy</b></div><div>He average 55 pts playing with Ehlers, Connor and Scheiffle. When he got to a team with less offensive talent, he scored 30 pts. He is a mid third liner and that is very generous</div></div>
No he didn't, he just finished a career year with WPG of 63 pts in 73 games... a pace of 70 pts literally just a year ago. He averaged 60 pts / 82 games throughout his time with WPG. Not bad for a mid third liner eh
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 11:55 a.m.
Thread:
Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>You are only looking at the negatives, how many cup champs over the past 5 years have been over the cap limit by way of LTIR contracts? 3 of the last 5 for sure, I just dont remember if the Avs or Blues were over or not.</div></div>
There are no positives, the purpose of LTIR is allow teams to temporarily exceed the cap (by adding the cap hit to salary cap) to give them injury relief.
A team that is in LTIR:
- Cannot accumulate any cap space over the course of the season (makes it harder to make trades at the deadline).
- Is penalized on next years cap due to bonus overages. Notice how MTL was penalized $1M this year. This will only get worse with as MTL adds more ELC's and they improve. The roster above has $4.6M in potential bonuses, if they still have Price that is $4.6M in potential cap penalties for 2025-26.
There is clear difference between someone like Price (who will never play again) being on LTIR compared to someone like Stone or Kucherov who is magically healthy for game 1 of the playoffs. That is how contenders are using it to their advantage, by activating them once the playoffs start. That isn't a factor with Price. The other way LTIR is used is to dump contracts... examples:
- TB trades Johnson for Seabrook to dump Johnson's cap hit and put Seabrook on LTIR.
- VGK trades Dadanov for Weber to dump Dadanov's cap hit and put Weber on LTIR.
It isn't advantageous for them to acquire Seabrook or Weber for LTIR, but it is a better alternative for them to dump Johnson and Dadanov. As they are contenders they will already be spending to the cap anyways so bonus and accumulating cap space are irrelevant, they would have the same penalties anyways.
There is no advantage to Price's contract whatsoever. It 100% hurts MTL and there is absolutely no benefit of it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 11:36 a.m.
Thread:
Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I dont think the Habs are interested in moving Price's contract, especially if they make a trade like this. If they make a play for PLD it is because they plan on making a playoff push next year or the year after and the ability to exceed the cap by 10.5 mil will make that much easier. I think if they do make a push for PLD it will require Dvorak going the other way for cap purposes and a few smaller peices like maybe Primeau + Harris + 2nd (IDK if retention would be added or not but even if its not at that price its not really an issue if PLD bounces back to his early Columbus form)</div></div>
Dude this is just wrong. Price's contract is a burden not a bonus. You need to research LTIR...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 11:34 a.m.
Thread:
Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GuyGuyGuy</b></div><div>No way habs take that much money for a mid third liner</div></div>
So a guy that has averaged 54 pts / season in his career and positive xGF% in top 6 roles is a mid third liner now?
We habs fans are insufferable sometimes.
Edit: and you do realize that the contract will only getter better with age as the cap increases right? 7 year term is a bonus.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 3 at 7:59 a.m.
Thread:
Getting tougher to play against
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>LA is already out of the playoffs so they wont miss the buyout window or can no team file for a buyout while the playoffs are ongoing? If that is the case then that isn't right, teams should be allowed to file buyouts or move the buyout period to after the playoffs and prior to FA.</div></div>
Per Puckpedia, buyouts can't start until the later of June 15th or 48 hours after the cup final (which could go as late as June 24th this year). LA is able to buyout Dubois any time they want to after that, the only wrinkle is that Dubois' birthday is on June 24th and once he turns 26 years old the buyout is 2/3 instead of 1/3.
It has nothing to do with the buyout window, more about Dubois' birthday.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 3 at 7:14 a.m.
Thread:
Getting tougher to play against
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Voice_Of_Thruth</b></div><div>At this point I wouldnt be surprised to see them buy him out tbh.
Surprisingly low and with the cap going up, the 1,130mil gets smaller every year</div></div>
It's low right now because he is younger than 26 years old, if he gets bought out it will only cost LA 1/3. This is there only chance to do this, he turns 26 this summer and then the cost will be 2/3. Interesting wrinkle that if the Stanley Cup Playoffs go the full distance it will force LA to miss the buyout window before he turns 26 on June 24th. I agree a buyout seems more likely than a trade at this point...
He was drafted by CBJ, it didn't work out for him there.
He was traded to WPG, it didn't work out there either.
He was traded to LA, and it's looking like a disaster.
He has disappointed everywhere he goes... maybe if he gets bought out he signs a cheaper deal, one that he could potentially live up to, but until then it's just way too much pressure for him in MTL.
Edit: If he did get bought out, a $5,619,048 × 7 yr contract would make him whole again. At that cap hit I think you could definitely take a chance on Dubois.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2 at 5:33 p.m.
Thread:
Getting tougher to play against
<a href="/users/Campabee" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Campabee</a> I really really do not like this. I agree with <a href="/users/jonh514" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@jonh514</a> , a lot can change in a year. You're paying full price for a huge risk, Newhook is more valuable than Dubois at this point.
I've looked at this option myself, and I think it's worth considering for the right price but I kept coming back to this one question:
Would I rather trade assets for Dubois @ $8.5M × 7 years or would I rather sign Monahan for 4 - 5 years @ $5M - $6M?
Even if Dubois bounces back, what does he bounce back to? He really hasnt been the elite players he's hyped as in 6 years... Josh Anderson scored 27 goals that year. It might have had more to do with Panarin than Dubois honestly. Monahan was arguably just as good of a Jet as Dubois ever was.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2 at 4:53 p.m.
Thread:
Jets
That is bad for MTL. Perfetti is not a top 5 talent, I would argue he isn't even worth his original draft position of 10th overall.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread:
move from the 5 to the 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jackaille</b></div><div>would you take the gamble tho with Columbus and their russians line ? I wouldn't, if you know he is not there I would do it.
I did the trade on puckpedia pick tool, I agree the second 2nd might be a bit overkill</div></div>
That's the same reference I used for pick value haha, its a good tool. I guess ultimately I'm just not as confident that Demidov is that far from someone like Lindstrom or even Eiserman / Catton / Iginla for example... that's just me I may not be as informed. I think another thing that we don't consider though is that the defenseman are highly regarded this year and therefore some strong forwards could be passed over.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2 at 3:21 p.m.
Thread:
move from the 5 to the 2
You could probably take out the Colorado 2nd and that would still be considered fair value... question is why? There's a legitimate chance Demidov is available at 5, Michkov didn't go until 7th last year.
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
May 2 at 3:17 p.m.
Thread:
Seems like Montreal will gonna trade to going up in the Draft for Demidov
Why trade up? If you want Demidov there is a legitimate chance he drops to 5, Michkov dropped to 7th. There are also other good options for MTL at 5, 6, or 7.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2 at 3:12 p.m.
Thread:
Ehlers
Good question regarding Ehlers, when I watch the Jets I think he's one of their best players. Ironically when Connor was injured and Ehlers was on the top line is when the Jets went on their big win streak.
Regarding Pageau, he would take at least a 1st round pick to dump. Bottom 6 player making $5M × 2 years, that is a significant cap dump.
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