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Habs 2010
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May 10, 2020
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Montreal Canadiens
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Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 1:54 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 10:08 a.m.
<a href="/users/lowblocksniper" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@lowblocksniper</a> Montembault extended 3 years × $3.15M

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lowblocksniper</b></div><div>True he's been very good the last year and even better so far this year.
I'm always hesitant on goalies, especially ones on very good or very bad teams.
Goalies on very good teams like Hill with Vegas get overhyped (I believe any of the 4goalies Quick, Thompson, Hill or Brossoit would've been able to win the cup for Vegas last year with how they where playing and they should'nt have signed Hill to the deal they did, he is playing very well though)
Goalies on really bad teams often get into a rhythm and are peppered with so many shots they start playing above their heads Monty is doing that, another example would be Mrazek in Chicago, terrible last year on a team that finished last, improving this year and looking really good. Mrazek last year and this year has essentially identical stats to what Monty had 2 years ago and last year and we know Mrazek on an average team is just an average goalie, why expect much more from Monty

Sorry for my rant lol</div></div>

This is why you should use GSAx when evaluating goalies as it takes shot quality into consideration so is somewhat eliminates the good team vs bad team argument. Mrazak was -0.88 last year and is -0.76 this year so far (below average). Monty was +16.78 last year (13th in the league) and is +4.65 this year (19th despite only playing 1/3 games). It is a counting stat so Monty is on pace for +18 while Mrazek is on pace to be worse than last year.

I use evolving hockey's goalie tables for reference.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:58 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:46 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Prime_Jimbo</b></div><div>Anderson is playing his worst hockey ever. He's also older. Gonna say he is a bigger risk and unlikely to turn it around in Montreal. Less of a worry though as Montreal is rebuilding. Don't see them having really any chance to capitalize on him going ahead except for swaps like this.</div></div>

Agreed he's playing bad, but Anderson was also on pace for 25 goals last season, letting a 20 game slump define his value would be a stupid mistake as a GM. His value is at an all time low there is no reason to do this trade if you are MTL. Edmonton on the other hand needs goaltending desperately and wants to contend now unlike the habs... why would MTL do them a favor like this?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lowblocksniper</b></div><div>Fair enough if it's your preference but, saying not a chance is ignoring the fact that the offer is worth consideration</div></div>

For me Monty is a non-starter. The habs have one of the deepest prospect pools in the league, Lavoie a 2nd and 4th is not needed and its not worth consideration for their best option in the short term for a starting goalie. Neither is Anderson for Campbell. Anderson is a physical 20 goal winger (when he isn't slumping) that can skate. Even if he is overpaid I'd value that on the 3rd or 4th line over an AHL goalie.

Edit: Over his 3 seasons with MTL Anderson has scored at an average of 24.6 G / 82 GP. Ignoring that and focusing on his 20 game slump (in which he has like 6 or 7 expected goals) is nothing but recency bias.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 7:15 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 5:32 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 4:29 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 4:18 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 4:17 p.m.