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Shanesaw9

Habs 2010
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May 10, 2020
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Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 1:54 p.m.
Thread: Does Edmontons mini surge make them more desperate or less desperate
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ricochetii</b></div><div>Campbell is only a possibility if Primeau is waived (regardless of a claim), it signals they do not view him as an option at the NHL level. Then they may be willing to parlay Allen into Campbell (for the right price of course).</div></div>
I don't see it that way, nothing wrong with rolling Montembault and Primeau while Campbell plays in Laval. If Primeau faulters (like he did last night) or Montreal has an injury maybe Campbell will be ready to return to the NHL at some point.

The habs just need to be careful they don't hurt there chances of contending down the road as Campbell has another 3 years after this one, but for a 1st and Bourgeault or Holloway they likely have to consider making that deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 10:08 a.m.
Thread: Two Negatives Make A Positive
<a href="/users/lowblocksniper" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@lowblocksniper</a> Montembault extended 3 years × $3.15M

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lowblocksniper</b></div><div>True he's been very good the last year and even better so far this year.
I'm always hesitant on goalies, especially ones on very good or very bad teams.
Goalies on very good teams like Hill with Vegas get overhyped (I believe any of the 4goalies Quick, Thompson, Hill or Brossoit would've been able to win the cup for Vegas last year with how they where playing and they should'nt have signed Hill to the deal they did, he is playing very well though)
Goalies on really bad teams often get into a rhythm and are peppered with so many shots they start playing above their heads Monty is doing that, another example would be Mrazek in Chicago, terrible last year on a team that finished last, improving this year and looking really good. Mrazek last year and this year has essentially identical stats to what Monty had 2 years ago and last year and we know Mrazek on an average team is just an average goalie, why expect much more from Monty

Sorry for my rant lol</div></div>

This is why you should use GSAx when evaluating goalies as it takes shot quality into consideration so is somewhat eliminates the good team vs bad team argument. Mrazak was -0.88 last year and is -0.76 this year so far (below average). Monty was +16.78 last year (13th in the league) and is +4.65 this year (19th despite only playing 1/3 games). It is a counting stat so Monty is on pace for +18 while Mrazek is on pace to be worse than last year.

I use evolving hockey's goalie tables for reference.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:58 a.m.
Thread: Two Negatives Make A Positive
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lowblocksniper</b></div><div>I've heard MTL is looking for a true #1 goalie and they don't think Monty is it
You might think he's the guy but, I haven't seen any report or any news on RDS\TSN\Sportsnet even suggesting what your saying.
The only thing close is people saying ride it out with Monty and hope Fowler is the future #1</div></div>

You're way off, maybe some media is trying to stir that up but not any of the respected journalists.

Montembault is MTL's best shot in the present of a #1 goaltender. He is 27 and needs a new contract, I assume that contract negotiation is part of the reason MTL is still running 3 goalies.

Primeau is young but has NHL potential. He's had some quality starts this season on tough nights.

Allen is 33, he is proven but not in MTL's long term plans, I'm sure he is the preffered option to trade.

Fowler and the other goalie prospects are many years out.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:46 a.m.
Thread: Two Negatives Make A Positive
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Prime_Jimbo</b></div><div>Anderson is playing his worst hockey ever. He's also older. Gonna say he is a bigger risk and unlikely to turn it around in Montreal. Less of a worry though as Montreal is rebuilding. Don't see them having really any chance to capitalize on him going ahead except for swaps like this.</div></div>

Agreed he's playing bad, but Anderson was also on pace for 25 goals last season, letting a 20 game slump define his value would be a stupid mistake as a GM. His value is at an all time low there is no reason to do this trade if you are MTL. Edmonton on the other hand needs goaltending desperately and wants to contend now unlike the habs... why would MTL do them a favor like this?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lowblocksniper</b></div><div>Fair enough if it's your preference but, saying not a chance is ignoring the fact that the offer is worth consideration</div></div>

For me Monty is a non-starter. The habs have one of the deepest prospect pools in the league, Lavoie a 2nd and 4th is not needed and its not worth consideration for their best option in the short term for a starting goalie. Neither is Anderson for Campbell. Anderson is a physical 20 goal winger (when he isn't slumping) that can skate. Even if he is overpaid I'd value that on the 3rd or 4th line over an AHL goalie.

Edit: Over his 3 seasons with MTL Anderson has scored at an average of 24.6 G / 82 GP. Ignoring that and focusing on his 20 game slump (in which he has like 6 or 7 expected goals) is nothing but recency bias.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 7:15 p.m.
Thread: What is the best Monahan trade for Habs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>He's below 50% xGoals 5v5 (in fact the team is better with him on the bench).
I don't think he's anything above average on the PK, or something that contenders don't already have 6 other forwards able to be just as good on the kill
He isn't the driver on the PP. None of his PP production is created by him.

Nobody else is giving sean monahan the 16th most power play time of any player in the league.</div></div>

Per Natural stat trick, at 5v5 his xG% is 50.87 and his actual GF% is 57.14. This while playing with Pearson and Gallagher in unfavorable matchups as St. Louis uses them as the trusted veteran line.

Even with the stat cherry picking you are not providing accurate information that would support your claim... and regardless stats are a tool not everything. There are 9 other skaters and 2 goalies on the ice at any time with Monahan that will have a significant effect on the stats you are trying to use in a 15 game sample to summarize Monahan's play. As a habs fan that has watched every game this season, trust me when I say Monahan is playing great hockey and would be a great 3rd line C for a contender (one that can play top 6 if necessary or special teams plus be relied on to win important faceoffs)... again provided he can stay healthy.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 5:32 p.m.
Thread: What is the best Monahan trade for Habs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>When I’m trading for players I’m trading for future production, not past.

I don’t see monahan on PP1 of any contender, all of them have roles set up already, and from what I’ve seen monahan isn’t doing anything particularly special on the power play. Just finishing over silver platter chances that he didn’t generate.
Going into the PK, again I’m paying for future production, so those points aren’t sustainable or something I can’t bank on going forward. I’m not sure how many PKs monahan fits on either considering he hasn’t done it before MTL and MTLs Pk isn’t particularly good with him.

So if I’m buying monahan I’m buying his 5v5 play, which isn’t anything great, coupled with his injury risk. Not a lot of value to me.

But sell it to me. What struggling PP would get turned around by a net front screener? What PK needs him</div></div>

When you are a contender you are not always trading to replace someone on your team but rather load up on talented depth for a cup run. Look at the Toronto trade for O'Reilly they gave up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, + 2 other guys for O'rielly at 50% retained. At that stage in his career the two are quite comparable, I'd think Monahan could fetch a late first... again assuming he stays healthy.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 4:29 p.m.
Thread: What is the best Monahan trade for Habs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Nobody else is giving monahan 4.5 minutes on the PP. now he's a 45 point player.

That adin hill **** up and shorty goal production, not sustainable, now he's a 35 point player</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Shorties aren't sustainable and are you acting like we didn't watch adin hill make a colosal mistake for 1 of them? Every player in the NHL scores there</div></div>

Monahan has been a powerplay guy his entire career, why the **** would he not be a powerplay guy with other teams? This is a former 1st line center who is healthy after 2 years and playing like a top 6 guy again.

Who is saying shorthanded goals are sustainable? Why the **** should they be discounted though? Also cherry picking one goal because some made a mistake, wow do we need to do that for every player now? You're reaching to discredit a player that is performing well in a top 6 role, for what purpose? Not to mention his linemates at 5v5 are literally Pearson and Gallagher. If Monahan continues this play and stays healthy, how could a contender that is up against the cap possibly find a better option at C with a cap hit at $2M?

The criticism here of Monahan is ridiculous, I don't support OP's hopes for a lottery pick but the lenghts some people are going to discredit his play is borderline trolling.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 4:18 p.m.
Thread: What is the best Monahan trade for Habs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KentMcNally</b></div><div>I just don't like trading him to a team that has a very good chance of making the second round of the playoffs (at least) like the Bruins because then the pick usually keeps getting worse.

I was hoping so badly last year that Florida would lose in the first round (even though it meant cheering for the Bruins) because I wanted Montreal to get a good pick in the strong draft. Watching the Panthers make it to the Finals and seeing that pick go all the way to #31 (essentially a 2nd round pick) sucked and I want the Habs to avoid that again, which is why i targeted bubble playoff teams. .

Just my 2 cents
I could see Montreal trading him for a 1st round pick that is top 5 or top 10 protected for sure. The odds of one of that teams that I was suggesting sneaking in to the top 10 (if they are playoff contenders at the deadline) are pretty low.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>NOBODY IS GIVING YOU A PICK THAT HAS ANY CHANCE OF BEING HIGHER THAN 17TH. No team is going to set themselves up to pay a mid/high 1st for a rental 3rd line C who can't stay healthy</div></div>

The Charoit trade was an outlier, and for a time it looked like Montreal might have 2 lottery picks in possibly the strongest top 3 draft in history. Not likely to happen again.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 4:17 p.m.
Thread: What is the best Monahan trade for Habs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>YesThisIsFlo</b></div><div>The Monahan for a 1st dream is so funny to me, I'd be shocked if he gets that return.

Obviously he has a massive track record of injuries, so what playoff team is going to rely on him to be available through a playoff grind?

He also has half his points on the powerplay, where he wouldn't get a sniff on other teams.

A team acquiring him would be getting him as an injury-prone bottom 6 center with limited penalty kill experience (only ever PKd in MTL). I don't see teams giving up a 1st for that/</div></div>

Why wouldn't he "get a sniff" on any other playoff powerplays? He has a 59% faceoff percentage and plays goal line / net front on the powerplay. He's a powerplay role player, never competing with a teams top players for that role. He's been a powerplay guy his entire career... he's not some plug he was a 1st line center in Calgary before injuries derailed his career which he has apparently moved on from (and in the context of this post that's the assumption here that he is still healthy and playing this well by the TDL).

By the way, 44% of Pettersson's production has been on the powerplay (you're a Vancouver fan). 46% of Monahans has been on the powerplay. There's a lot of hypocrisy in your comment.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Newgod77</b></div><div>Cmon man. One 5on5 goal in 15 games doesn’t do it for ya?</div></div>

2 shorthanded goals isn't good?