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Which is a bigger risk

Created by: KentMcNally
Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 19, 2024
Published: Mar. 19, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I am curious about which team thinks this trade is a bigger risk, especially when one considers all of the factors (salary, length of contract, injury history and the potential of the player to produce in the future).
Montreal gets a guy that is locked in longer term (which could be good or bad) but has a suspect shoulder.
Ottawa gets the cheaper option (saving $4,6M) and could choose not to re-sign Dach if he does not pan out for the remaining 3 years on his contract. Dach also has his own injury concerns.

Who wins this trade and why?
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Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the COL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the WSH
2025
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the NJD
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the DET
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
2026
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
24$83,500,000$80,397,916$1,170,000$4,035,000$3,102,084
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$7,850,000$7,850,000
LW, RW
UFA - 8
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$7,875,000$7,875,000
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,250,000$3,250,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$2,900,000$2,900,000
C, LW
RFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,100,000$1,100,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,700,000$1,700,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,400,000$3,400,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$835,000$835,000 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
LW, RW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$775,000$775,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$812,500$812,500
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$7,950,000$7,950,000
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$775,000$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,875,000$4,875,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,000,000$1,000,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,400,000$1,400,000
LD/RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$766,667$766,667
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$890,000$890,000
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$867,500$867,500 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
LD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
LD/RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$828,333$828,333
LD/RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,450,000$4,450,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$10,500,000$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 1

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Mar. 19 at 10:58 a.m.
#1
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There is no trade...
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Mar. 19 at 11:02 a.m.
#2
ht42
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I think a repetitive shoulder injury is a higher-risk than what Dach haved. Don't forget that Dach have been operated by one of the most renowned surgeries in the world for this type of injury.
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Mar. 19 at 11:05 a.m.
#3
Once a Kings Fan Too
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
There is no trade...

I'm guessing he's talking about Thomas Chabot for Kirby Dach . . .
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Mar. 19 at 11:22 a.m.
#4
HockeyLeagueThreads
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I'm guessing he's talking about Thomas Chabot for Kirby Dach . . .


It's a Dach and Norris swap. That said, the bigger risk is for the Habs to take on Norris. His multiple injuries, longer contract and higher cap hit make it that way.
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Mar. 19 at 11:30 a.m.
#5
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Fall River Habs
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Quoting: Bobrick
It's a Dach and Norris swap. That said, the bigger risk is for the Habs to take on Norris. His multiple injuries, longer contract and higher cap hit make it that way.


I tend to agree. However, Norris does have a 35 goal season already under his belt, which is something exciting for a center as young as he is. If he could get healthy and produce near that rate I don't know whether Dach replicates that production. Plus, the Norris salary for a 35 goal scorer in the future is not bad.
Mar. 19 at 12:01 p.m.
#6
Jesus Christ Is King
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Quoting: KentMcNally
I tend to agree. However, Norris does have a 35 goal season already under his belt, which is something exciting for a center as young as he is. If he could get healthy and produce near that rate I don't know whether Dach replicates that production. Plus, the Norris salary for a 35 goal scorer in the future is not bad.


All True, know who else does ? Shawn Monahan
If its me i bring back Dach's linemate so he can continue to grow as a Center in the 1 area he sucks in Faceoffs.
Also Slaf looks so sad doing his Pre Game handshake alone as he did with Monahan every day in his first successful season

If its me i offer Monahan any deal he wants on a 1 year deal, up to 5m at 2 years , 4m at 3 years ,or 3m for 5 years or some variation of that pays him and can be moved if needed. He's a rare Team Leader who leaves all our youth better without having to sacrifice his own success.
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Mar. 19 at 12:05 p.m.
#7
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I'd say that taking Norris isn't a major risk for the Habs, since they're not a team that's looking to spend to the cap anyways, so can probably afford to take on one of these "idk hopefully get 50 games out of him" type of players, especially with the potentially really high upside, or non-zero chance of very-long term LTIR. I'd think that honestly, the biggest risk involved is the Sens moving Norris, because you're moving a guy who has shown that he can be an elite goalscorer in the NHL just out of fear that he could reinjure. either way, interesting thoughts!
Mar. 19 at 12:06 p.m.
#8
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Salary and term aside , Dach has also proven that he can play on the wing and play a heavy game.
That being said both teams would prefer that their player gets and stays healthy and no swap is made.
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Mar. 19 at 12:30 p.m.
#9
Habs 2010
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Quoting: emoprettyboy
I'd say that taking Norris isn't a major risk for the Habs, since they're not a team that's looking to spend to the cap anyways, so can probably afford to take on one of these "idk hopefully get 50 games out of him" type of players, especially with the potentially really high upside, or non-zero chance of very-long term LTIR. I'd think that honestly, the biggest risk involved is the Sens moving Norris, because you're moving a guy who has shown that he can be an elite goalscorer in the NHL just out of fear that he could reinjure. either way, interesting thoughts!


The habs aren't spending to the cap because they are rebuilding. Taking on an 6 years × $8M player that can't stay healthy makes no sense.

Quoting: KentMcNally
I tend to agree. However, Norris does have a 35 goal season already under his belt, which is something exciting for a center as young as he is. If he could get healthy and produce near that rate I don't know whether Dach replicates that production. Plus, the Norris salary for a 35 goal scorer in the future is not bad.


Dach is also younger than Norris. In his first season with MTL he had 38 pts in 58 games... Norris had 35 pts in 56 games at the same age. Dach was expected to breakout this season before his injury. I'd take Dach at $3.4M over Norris at $7.9M any day and it isn't even close for me. Dach on his current contract is not a risk at all, unlike Norris and there is no upside to Norris over Dach as they arguably have similar potential.
Mar. 19 at 1:10 p.m.
#10
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the problem with Norris is he has crap luck, i mean to blow out your shoulder by hitting the center post on the back of the net because he turned to tight is just BS bad luck.
Mar. 19 at 1:28 p.m.
#11
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Whose a bigger risk? Pff ...who knows...... No way of knowing and its simply guessing at this point. I doubt either team wants to take that risk and would rather just stick with what they know.
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