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Shanesaw9

Habs 2010
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Forum: Armchair-GM20 hours ago
Thread: Getting tougher to play against
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>LA is already out of the playoffs so they wont miss the buyout window or can no team file for a buyout while the playoffs are ongoing? If that is the case then that isn't right, teams should be allowed to file buyouts or move the buyout period to after the playoffs and prior to FA.</div></div>

Per Puckpedia, buyouts can't start until the later of June 15th or 48 hours after the cup final (which could go as late as June 24th this year). LA is able to buyout Dubois any time they want to after that, the only wrinkle is that Dubois' birthday is on June 24th and once he turns 26 years old the buyout is 2/3 instead of 1/3.

It has nothing to do with the buyout window, more about Dubois' birthday.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 hours ago
Thread: Getting tougher to play against
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Voice_Of_Thruth</b></div><div>At this point I wouldnt be surprised to see them buy him out tbh.

Surprisingly low and with the cap going up, the 1,130mil gets smaller every year</div></div>

It's low right now because he is younger than 26 years old, if he gets bought out it will only cost LA 1/3. This is there only chance to do this, he turns 26 this summer and then the cost will be 2/3. Interesting wrinkle that if the Stanley Cup Playoffs go the full distance it will force LA to miss the buyout window before he turns 26 on June 24th. I agree a buyout seems more likely than a trade at this point...

He was drafted by CBJ, it didn't work out for him there.
He was traded to WPG, it didn't work out there either.
He was traded to LA, and it's looking like a disaster.

He has disappointed everywhere he goes... maybe if he gets bought out he signs a cheaper deal, one that he could potentially live up to, but until then it's just way too much pressure for him in MTL.

Edit: If he did get bought out, a $5,619,048 × 7 yr contract would make him whole again. At that cap hit I think you could definitely take a chance on Dubois.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 5:33 p.m.
Thread: Getting tougher to play against
<a href="/users/Campabee" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Campabee</a> I really really do not like this. I agree with <a href="/users/jonh514" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@jonh514</a> , a lot can change in a year. You're paying full price for a huge risk, Newhook is more valuable than Dubois at this point.

I've looked at this option myself, and I think it's worth considering for the right price but I kept coming back to this one question:

Would I rather trade assets for Dubois @ $8.5M × 7 years or would I rather sign Monahan for 4 - 5 years @ $5M - $6M?

Even if Dubois bounces back, what does he bounce back to? He really hasnt been the elite players he's hyped as in 6 years... Josh Anderson scored 27 goals that year. It might have had more to do with Panarin than Dubois honestly. Monahan was arguably just as good of a Jet as Dubois ever was.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 3:20 p.m.
Thread: if you are going to trade with the Islanders
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Okposo_Lover</b></div><div>I think

Jake Evans
WPG 2024 1st Round Pick (27th)

For

J.G. Pageau
NYI 2024 1st Round Pick (18th)
NYI 2024 2nd Round Pick (50th)

is a fair deal. One note on Harris is that the Islanders have no need for him. I like him a lot but we have Pelech and Romanov plus Bolduc who is developing quite well. It seems like Mike Reilly will be brought back as a plateau option with Bolduc for a season so adding Harris with the current roster doesn't make too much sense, although I'm sure a bunch of teams out there would be interested in him

I like the deal you proposed though, and truthfully could see it happen if Lamoriello realises we need to shed money</div></div>

I'm on board with this trade. It gives MTL more quality (18th overall vs 27th overall), and I don't think they really need the cap space for anything else over the next 2 years. Probably would depend on if they like someone on the board at that pick.

Understand regarding Harris, I overlooked Bolduc.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 2:51 p.m.
Thread: if you are going to trade with the Islanders
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Okposo_Lover</b></div><div>Id make a move for sure.

Evans and Pageau are both in it, with no retention on Pageau. From there, id be willing to go a few ways. The first, and ideal option is to trade back. Do something like

18 OVR (NYI's 2024 1st), NYI 2025 3rd Round Pick and Pageau FOR Evans + 26OVR (WPG's 2024 1st to MTL)

or

Pageau + Wahlstrom + NYI 2025 3rd Round Pick for Evans + MTL 2025 7th Round Pick

or

Pageau + William Dufour for Evans + MTL 2027 5th Round Pick</div></div>

So now that I've discovered this draft pick value calculator which includes a salary dump calculation as well I'm going to lean into that:

A fair deal would be Evans for Pageau and 27th overall. But the Islander's don't own 27th overall they have 18 and 50.

So I would propose MTL trades up to 18th overall... and the calculated cost to do so would be to trade 39th overall back. But MTL doesn't have that, they have 27th overall and 57th. The cost to trade up to 39th from 57th is to add 59th... so here is my proposal.

Jake Evans
Jordan Harris (Substitute for 59th overall)
2024 2nd Round Pick (Colorado - Proj. 57th)

For

J.G. Pageau
2024 1st Round Pick (18th Overall)

Edit... I screwed something up looking at the WPG pick scenario. Hang on.

Ok so option 2 is:

Jake Evans
WPG 2024 1st Round Pick (27th)

For

J.G. Pageau
NYI 2024 1st Round Pick (18th)
NYI 2024 2nd Round Pick (50th)
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 2:04 p.m.
Thread: if you are going to trade with the Islanders
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Icelander24</b></div><div>I’d be fine with a trade like that but what would the trade compensation be?</div></div>

Honestly I'm not sure, Pageau and Evans are essentially equal players more or less so it's basically like a pure cap dump of $3.3M × 2 years (technically $3.3M plus $5M since Evans only has one year left).

So are there any comparables of cap dumps in that range? I'd have to assume you'd be looking to get at least a 2nd round pick and go from there.

Edit: Here's a reference that analyzes draft pick value and then compared that to the history of cap dumps and salary retention trades to develop a chart for valuing cap space vs draft picks.

https://puckpedia.com/PerriCapRelief

For $5M in cap space, the compensation is 32nd overall. So for $3.3M × 2 years ($6.6M), you're looking at a 1st round pick. Now Pageau probably isn't a pure cap dump (he is viewed as such in this scenario since Evans is a direct replacement) but if the goal is to just purely dump Pageau with no replacement then it might cost less. I was interested in throwing in Jordan Harris sweetener who would probably be your 6th D next year because MTL needs to clear a spot on defense anyways... but basically MTL would need a late 1st or early 2nd to justify this trade.

Edit 2.0: If I read closer I'd see there is a calculator here... https://puckpedia.com/CapRelief

$3.3M × 2 years is an expected value of 27th overall.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 4:51 p.m.
Thread: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>sure the odds are higher, but not high enough to justify moving a young top 6 forward coming off a 19 goal season.

I did say someone might offer a 2nd for him, but most teams have players that are close, but can't crack the team and almost all of those guys aren't returning a 2nd. Barron is basically a Kovacevic (yes, I know he's older) and the Jets got nothing for him.

I think Montreal likely would trade him for a 3rd, unless they are sure he is making the team next season. Because if he doesn't, he's list on waivers at some point.</div></div>

I'm not disputing the Perfetti trade, just the logic that Barron is worth a 3rd (even to WPG).

Ironically, I really like Kovacevic (again minority compared to most habs fans). He's got size, he is a reliable bottom pair guy, and he is a good penalty killer. I am even open to possibly keeping Kovacevic over Barron depending on how things fall into place next season... if Mailloux and Reinbacher progress as expected Barron likely becomes trade bait. For now, Barron has more potential upside (than Kovacevic) so I wouldn't pull the trigger yet.

For reference I checked out WPG's draft history from 2020 to 2011.

2nd Round Picks (5/8 = 62.5%)
- Petan, Gustaffson, Samberg, Harkins, Comrie

I would argue Barron is better than all of those players aside from maybe Samberg whom I would say they are on par with one another.

3rd round picks (2/10 = 20%)
- Lowry, Kovacevic

Lowry was a home run for them in the 3rd round and clearly more valuable than Barron. Kovacevic is arguably on par with Barron but a lower ceiling, time will tell.

Just going off that I think it's fair to say Barron is for sure worth a 2nd round pick. I would argue more because I personally think he has a better than 62.5% chance of having a long NHL career, one that is better than the fringe guys like Harkins, Petan etc.

Point being you can trade a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you maybe really regret that 1 / 18 times (5.6%), you'd be fine with it 2 / 18 times (11.1%), you'd be happy with it 4 / 18 times (22.2%), and you'd be downright winners 11 / 18 times (61.1%).

Trading Barron for a 2nd round pick would be like trying to double up with 5% odds, with a 10% chance of getting your money back, a 20% chance of getting a little money back, but 65% of the time its not gonna work out for you.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 4:34 p.m.
Thread: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>The thing that brings Barron's value down is waiver eligibility. Just because a player was worth a 2nd at one point, doesn't mean he's worth a 2nd forever.

He needs to clear waivers next season, so if he doesn't clearly make the team out of training camp, you lose him on waivers. Someone who is desperate for a bottom pairing defenseman may give you a 2nd for him, penciling him in on the bottom pair, but unlikely a team that isn't sure where he will fit, does that. Bottom pairing defenseman are plentiful and cheap in trades or as UFA's.

Barron simply isn't a clear upgrade on anything Winnipeg currently has in house, so he's not worth pursuing.

If you want to move him for a 3rd, the Jets could take a look. If you want Perfetti, you'd need to offer a comparably aged, comparably skilled player that fills a need for the Jets.

Pure futures or bits and bobs don't do it.</div></div>

That's just silly though, you think MTL would take a 3rd for him? Obviously not so his value is greater than a 3rd.

When you say Barron is worth a 3rd round pick you need to specify WPG would only offer a 3rd round pick, because those are two different things.

But a question for you:
1. What are the odds of WPG's 3rd round pick making the NHL?
2. What are the odds of Barron making WPG's roster next season?

I believe the odds of option 2 are significantly higher than option 1.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 3:34 p.m.
Thread: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>Cool. Then hang onto him. The Jets have no interest in moving Perfetti unless it is for something that makes them better now.

A first and a 3rd (Barron's value) is less than a 1st, 2nd and C prospect.</div></div>

This is where there is a huge discrepancy in value for us. In what world is Barron worth a 3rd round pick? 3rd round picks are busts all the time, Barron already has 94 career NHL games at 22 years old and he is currently 25th in his draft class for points (despite being a defenseman). Like c'mon, whoever you draft in the 3rd round isn't going to be as good as Barron, whoever you draft in the 2nd round probably won't be as good as Barron either. I think less than 50% of 2nd round picks even become NHL players?

You're either undervaluing Barron or overvaluing draft picks, perhaps both. This offer is right in line with the price for Newhook.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 12:46 p.m.
Thread: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>Yes, I would just keep Perfetti. Barron simply isn't better than any of Winnipeg's in house options.

While you can say both players struggled at times as all young players do. In think it's disingenuous for you claim that a young player that put up 19 goals playing regularly for most of the year in the top 6 on a team with a very good top 6, struggled as much as a a defenseman that couldn't consistently crack the lineup of a very bad defense.

Those are two very different levels of struggle.

If Perfetti was a Canadien, would you make the same deal for Barron?</div></div>

I am in the minority of MTL fans in feeling that Barron did not really struggle. He was MTL's 4th most used defence at 5v5 on average and he posted a 50% GF in that usage (which is a pass on a rebuilding team IMO).

He's not much a penalty killer and he had limited powerplay ice time on the 2nd unit, I assume MTL wanted him to improve his game defensively (specifically on the penalty kill) which is why they assigned him to Laval, but for the mistakes he makes he brings enough good to balance it out and that should improve with time. This was the last year before Barron required waivers so I think they just took the opportunity to develop him down there. Ultimately, the emergence of Struble is what pushed Xhekaj to Laval for a stint, but Xhekaj is simply better than Barron so eventually they changed spots.

But Struble had easier usage than Barron and he had worse results with a 47.76% GF, so I don't think it's fair to say he couldn't crack the line up... he was better than Struble and when he was in the lineup he played the majority of his minutes in the top 4.

Regarding trading Perfetti if I was the jets - i would say no not necessarily. But I would be trading a forward for a defenseman because of what they have in the system. I personally think Barron would be a good fit in WPG on the 3rd pair with the potential to grow into a top 4 role as he develops more consistency. He won't necessarily make you better right away but he gives you an internal solution to the aging and expiring contracts defence.

If you aren't interested I can understand (as WPG is probably wanting to get better now and doesn't really care about the future), my personal stance would be to keep Barron around anyways unless a really good offer is out there.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 11:29 a.m.
Thread: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>Yet, he only played 48 games.

Perfetti would be 5th in points, 4th is goals on Montreal, so absolutely a top 6 player.

Barron would be behind Morrissey, Samberg, Pionk, Stanley and Schmidt next year and DeMelo and Dillon if they come back. So, he'd be fighting for 6D at best if DeMelo and Dillon move on.

So tell me how it improves Winnipeg to move a young 19 goal scorer that played in their top 6 for a 6/7 D.</div></div>

I'm not trying to sell you on this deal, and if you would prefer to keep Perfetti you can just say so... but you are being disingenuous when you claim Barron is the only "struggling" player meanwhile Perfetti is a healthy scratch right now.

Perfetti's pace of 44 pts / 82 games would put him 6th for Forwards for Montreal this year (I'm counting Dach based on his performance last season and Monahan who left a hole that needs filled). Montreal has $16M in cap space they can used to address forwards...

If I was acquiring Perfetti I would project him to be playing on the 3rd line for MTL:

Slafkovsky - Suzuki - Caufield
Newhook - Dach - TOP6 F
Perfetti - 3C - Armia

I would want to spread out the smaller Forwards Caufield, Newhook, and Perfetti.

Meanwhile (probably an unpopular opinion among habs fans) but I'm actually projecting Barron to play with Matheson based on their success together this year. I also project MTL rolling 7D:

Matheson - Barron (61.54 GF%)
Guhle - Kovacevic (58.82 GF%)
Hutson - Savard - Xhekaj (68.00 GF%)

Honestly, I'd probably just keep Barron and the 1st and rock with Joshua Roy who had an identical 20 year old pro year to Perfetti.

Again, that's how I see it for MTL, if you see things a different way for the Jets I respect your opinion... but you can't fault Barron (who was fine on a crowded defence) and not also fault Perfetti for the same thing (who was fine on a crowded forward group before he was pushed out by deadline acquisitions).
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 10:30 a.m.
Thread: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>19 goals doesn't sound like too much of a struggle. He's just learning how to be consistent. Not being able to crack the top 4 consistently on one of the worst teams in hockey is struggling.

Not to mention Montreal is the 2nd team to give up on Barron.</div></div>

See my edit from the original post:

<em>Also, Barron had a 61% GF paired with Matheson (top pair) this year and a 50% GF paired with Guhle (2nd Pair). He was quite fine in the top 4 at the NHL, I think MTL wanted him to work on some details in Laval as it was his last year of no waivers and they had a crowded blue line. Barron (22), Xhekaj (23), Struble (22) all seen stints in Laval this year, all of them are NHL calibre defenseman.</em>

When Barron played in MTL he averaged 16:00 / game at 5v5. That is 4th highest on MTL. I don't think MTL is giving up on him, it would be counter-intuitive to put him in the minors (when you are rebuilding) if you planned on trading him as that doesn't boost value.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 10:18 a.m.
Thread: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>A struggling prospect and late first don't get you a young top 6 player.</div></div>

Claiming Barron is struggling and not conceding that Perfetti is also struggling is sort of crazy. Just using a pick value chart for reference this offer seems to be good ballpark value.

Also, Barron had a 61% GF paired with Matheson (top pair) this year and a 50% GF paired with Guhle (2nd Pair). He was quite fine in the top 4 at the NHL, I think MTL wanted him to work on some details in Laval as it was his last year of no waivers and they had a crowded blue line. Barron (22), Xhekaj (23), Struble (22) all seen stints in Laval this year, all of them are NHL calibre defenseman.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Subbanator7667</b></div><div>I think this is a fair offer if Winnipeg has given up on him, don't think they have and will keep him though.

Also not sold on him on the Habs, don't know if you want a top 6 with Perfetti, Caufield and Suzuki, they're all on the small side</div></div>

Suzuki is 212 lbs, he is pretty solid I wouldn't classify him as being on the small side.