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Sufferingleafsfan

Sufferingleafsfan
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Oct. 28, 2019
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 2, 2019 at 7:47 p.m.
Thread: Leafs with better contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jack_</b></div><div>You forgot about ceci. His QO was 4.3 million and he got payed 4.5</div></div>

Yes his QO was 4.3 but he was ready to go to arbitration - past arbitration shows that he could have easily come out north of 4.5mil - that deal was the safest option at the time.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Goldninja0</b></div><div>Switch ceci from 4.5 mil to like 3.83 mil</div></div>

As per the above post Goldninja0 Ceci was eligible for arbitration off of his previous RFA contract with a need for a first offer from the team to be a minimum of 4.3mil for it to qualify (hence QO qualifying offer) so in the ideal world of rainbows and unicorns the Leafs would have paid 4.3mil for Ceci. Unfortunately arbitration usually awards the player more so I think that 4.5mil was actually pretty reasonable given that arbitration just looks at similar players coming off of similar contracts and DOES NOT take into account quality of that players play and since Ottawa overpaid Ceci we had to as well. All told I think 0.2mil was worth it to avoid what could have easily been a 4.8-5.5mil one year arbitration award given comparable d-men coming off of a second RFA contract making 4mil a season.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 2, 2019 at 7:35 p.m.
Thread: RHD and Backup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Severson is 27 years old...he hasn't he reached his upside? Is he a top four Dman? Maybe but he does play on a poor team so it's pretty easy being top four. Has Ceci been anyway worse than Barrie or Holl.(or Severson) Don't think so, but somehow their is CapFriendly fascination that deleting Ceci and inserting any RHD, the Leafs are better this year.,</div></div>

So I agree with you that Ceci has not been awful this year. First, I think Barrie and Holl have been better than Ceci. Barrie: There were stretches where he was worse FOR SURE but I think that overall he has a higher upside than Ceci does and under Keefe Barrie is starting to be what was promised to us. Holl: He has admittedly been playing more sheltered minutes but his stats sit a little better than Ceci's and more importantly he's costing WAY WAY less money.

Regarding Ceci He hasn't been terrible he's been a serviceable top4 d on the Leafs and is probably an alright 4/5 on most NHL teams. He'd also probably look really really in a bottom pair role in more sheltered minutes than he is facing right now. I think he's an NHL-level dman for sure.

Reasons for thinking Ceci is worth trading out of Toronto.
1. His cap hit of 4.5mil (because of arbitration) is the most likely candidate to be moved to ease the Leafs cap woes. Ceci is a decent player but not a 4.5mil player I think that can be agreed on. So his cap hit is part of what makes him a target a) because if it is moved it gives the Leafs some flexibility and b) although not bad he's not worth 4.5 mil
2. Ceci hasn't been gelling well with Reilly. They have consistent breakdowns in communication on d-zone coverages. Their outlet game has been struggling together. Reilly hasn't been playing up to his potential and some of that is of course on him but his consistent d-partner has to have a role to play in that too.
3. Ceci doesn't fill the special teams role for the Leafs that they need his PK skills aren't that great.

So I think that Ceci is a decent player and if the Leafs do keep him for the season and resign him for say 2mil per year at 3 years I'd be happy. But I think in the world of Cap Friendly ACGM and what trades can this team make right now to get better Ceci is the obvious candidate to be removed because 1. it gives the Leafs cap flexibility 2. it provides a different top 4 dman to try with Reilly to hopefully get him going 3. Ceci no matter how hard you try is not a top-pairing dman and should not be treated as such
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 2, 2019 at 6:33 p.m.
Thread: RHD and Backup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>If Severson is good as you claim, Devils get more in a deal for a decent Dman with 3.5 years left in his contract. Fact is Ceci has been OK this year, Severson is likely no better so the Leaf might as keep him and then have the cap space for next season.
Pens would rather keep their backup rather than two AHLers/ECHLers.</div></div>

I'm not saying Severson is god's gift to defence just saying that he fits the mold of a decent top4 NHL d-man on a solid contract with more upside than Ceci. Ceci has been OK I have no issues with him but an upgrade is needed for the team to contend.

Regarding the Pens Mac Hollowell is an AHLer right now but is a solid B prospect and only 21 years old. The Pens could use some d-depth right now. A 6/7nhl Dman (which is what Marincin is on most teams), a B prospect and a 4th seems pretty reasonable for a good but unproven goalie on an expiring contract
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 2, 2019 at 6:26 p.m.
Thread: RHD and Backup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingLundqvist30</b></div><div>Pittsburgh can get more for Jarry than that.
That’s a weird package for a 3rd
Im aware Severson is in a slump but you are not getting him in any trade involving Cody Ceci</div></div>

Pitt - Could probably sweeten it a bit and I'd be cool with it. Jarry is still not a proven quantity in the league though and is on an expiring contract the Pens can't demand too much for him.
Edm - Yeah I'm with you a 4th may be more realistic but I think the Oilers need for wing depth is going to drive them to one the Leafs at some point.
NJD - Fair then I'd propose dumping Ceci to like Winnipeg for a futures (maybe a 7th) to get rid of the salary and then put maybe another prospect or bubble NHLer with Bracco to NJD.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 1, 2019 at 8:21 a.m.
Thread: Ceci You Later Go Get A Backup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>brendanchisholm98</b></div><div>Every year leaf fans jump on the hate a player bandwagon. This year its cody ceci and for no good reason. Management likes him the coach likes him all he has done is play his game. Hes done everything the leafs hsve expected of him and in fact they are likley looking to lock him up on a term deal in the 3mill range. Its funny how leaf fans jump on Ceci but say nothing about how muzzin and rielly havnt been playing up to their abilities so far this year. Ceci is amuch better dman then zeitsev was and is also a much better option then delzotto. Leaf fans need to stop listening to other dumb leaf fans an actually watch the games</div></div>

I agree with you that Ceci is better than most are making him out to be - I think in the ArmChairGM world though Ceci makes the most sense as someone to ship out to make cap space.

And although Ceci is better than Zaitsev and is not a terrible dman he's NOT 4.5mil good. I wouldn't mind if the Leafs locked him up for say 4 years at 2.5-3. I'd be unhappy with anything over 3mil.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 12, 2019 at 12:48 p.m.
Thread: If we really wanted toughness heres how to get it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>I would love for TML to play with only 3 lines.
Signed,
Every single boston fan.

PS putting guys on 4th lines doesn't solve issues. They have to be able to actually be on the ice to make a difference. Coming on the ice for 5 minutes a night isn't going to solve the issue. You should wait till ANA is out the playoffs. Then you would trade Ceci for Gudbranson and put him on the 3rd pair. He's a better player than what you are seeing in ANA and he would give the team a bit of push back.
Other than that, you better draft or find in FA a big guy who hits who is fast enough and skilled enough to play in the top 6.</div></div>

I agree with your premise of these players but one or two guys won't be a magic bullet to solve the Leafs toughness issues it needs to be how the team plays. They need to 1) be more aggressive hunting down pucks 2) stand up for their teammates 3) tighten up and play meaner d
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 12, 2019 at 8:10 a.m.
Thread: If we really wanted toughness heres how to get it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>So talking head say the Leafs need size and people eat it up. The Leafs are the 3rd heaviest team in the league. They actually are not small. That is a myth. The toughness they need is a will to win not actual goonish toughness</div></div>

THIS THIS THIS.

Leafs fans need to stop thinking 'oh if we put X player who's 'tough' on the team that'll fix it' The Leafs problem is not that they don't have the right 'bruiser', 'goon', 'tough guy' or whatever you want to call it it's that they don't have the compete level to be tough. Look at the Chicago game Toews (Toews!!!!) dropped the gloves to stand up for his teammate please raise your hand if Toews fits the mold of the 'tough guy' the leafs need. No he doesn't he's probably closer to JT as a player and he dropped em and went for it. It is that level of compete and agression from the Leafs that we need to see that won't be fixed by adding a specific 'tough' player it's a culture and identity thing not a 'we need ONE guy out of TWENTY who is tough and that'll fix it'. Rant over.

Now to the actual suggestion of this post. I like the idea of giving these guys a shot but I have two things that I think need to be considered before bringing up Korshkov and Engvall. 1) What is that going to do to the 4th line chemistry/overall lineup chemistry. This isn't a huge deal but I do believe in making sure that guys have a chance to work together and grow. Like GOAT and Shore have developed something pretty decent together. Is it worth it to drop these guys in and say it doesn't work - how many games do you give them to give it a try 1-3 that's not going to help the development of these young players if anything it'll hurt their confidence. So you give them 5-8 games and maybe the team suffers for it? Not saying this is how it'll go down just something to think about particularly given that the Leafs main problem, I'd humbly submit, is not the 4th line. 2) They have been playing good 200-foot games but at the AHL level. Not everyone can make the jump and success in the AHL doesn't gaurentee NHL success. Also what do you do with the AHL team during that time? Send down shore and Timashov and open them up to waivers? - If they get taken and Korshkov and Engvall don't work out then what're you going to do?
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 7, 2019 at 10:17 p.m.
Thread: Get Ceci off my hockey team dude
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>OK you don't like Ceci, but isn't kinda ridiculous to expect an NHLer (Walker) to be traded to the Leafs for waiver player, an AHLer and two meaningless picks? Petan's on waivers and you expect a pick in return?
Playoff hopeful Canes trading an NHLer Dman for not much. DeSmith is the Pens third goalie, they just might need him this year.
The usual one sided trades to satisfy Leaf needs.</div></div>

Your critique is fair. Walker trade gives them two possible futures in the picks and a B prospect plus Marincin to fill in on their bottom pair for the rest of the season. Walker is decent but by no means a proven commodity. Picks value could be increased a bit though you're probably right.

Canes have a logjam on their D right now they might be convinced to accept some winger depth that they could use for that playoff push (Timashov) and a B prospect (Bracco) and a small futures return.

Maybe I'm a little low on return value BUT I think these aren't a bad framework to build off of for the Leafs
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 7, 2019 at 5:04 p.m.
Thread: Grit and Goalies
The LAK and WIN trades are hilariously bad and do not address needs for the Leafs at all.

LA Trade: So the Leafs are giving up one of their better and more consistent forwards who plays in all situations (2ndPP, 1stPK and in tough line matching roles) and who is young and promising for an aging forward who is on an expiring contract who CANT play in all the roles that Kapanen can. And the Leafs do this because they need to drop the gloves once in a while? I agree that this team needs to show some more sandpaper but bringing in 1 mediocre 4th liner who is going to play 10mins a night does not magically fix that problem and people in Leafs nation need to stop thinking that it will. Also the other half of this trade Petersen is not a great idea he's an AHL goalie who has promise but no proven track record in the NHL he is not someone you'd want to start over Andersen on a rest night he may be more skilled than Hutch but he's a different kind of problem not a solution.

Jets Trade: Yeah let's bail on a guy because he's had a slow start to a season and is adjusting to the new system. Give Barrie the point spot on PP1 and no one would have any issues with him. He needs some time and let's give it to him. ALSO what is the point getting rid of the best RD we have without addressing our other D depth issues. The D depth chart you have after this trade is really weak.