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TheEarthmaster

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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 3:40 p.m.
Thread: Granlund TDL Discussion
There's a few caveats:

- Granlund has an extra year. Will that help or hurt his value, considering teams would have to fit him under the cap next year? He's not a pure rental like Eller, and it's harder to talk yourself into "untapped upside" like Greenway when the player will be 32 by the trade deadline.

- The Sharks have already used 2/3 of their retained salary slots. Retaining salary could make the extra year more palatable (and potentially drive up the price), but is it worth it for a tanking Sharks team to tie up all three of their retention spots next year to turn that 3rd into a 2nd, or a late 2nd into a late 1st?

- Hard for me not to draw comparisons between Ryan Dzingel his last year on the Sens and Granlund right now on the Sharks, which is to say that on bad teams, somebody is going to score the goals. Somebody is going to look like a top six player when really, maybe they're only a top six player because no one else is. And as soon as that player goes from a bad team to a good team, they're not getting that opportunity, and they're not going to be the big contributor they may have looked like. If I was an acquiring team it would be something I would keep in mind when a 31 year old who never cracked 70 points in his prime and looked washed last year is suddenly looking like a big piece again.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 7, 2023 at 11:24 a.m.
Thread: I dont care about your Jake Shakes or Crosbys feelings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gpmack95</b></div><div>You do realize how good Maverick Bourque is, right?</div></div>

How much overlap is there between him being a top of the lineup NHL contributor and Crosby/Malkin/Letang/Karlsson being top of the lineup contributors though?

Penguins need to be treating every season those four guys are playing well like it's going to be the last, because there's a good chance it is. Can't swap Guentzel's roster spot for Marchment's roster spot on the basis of "well Mavrick Borque might play on our top line in two years" because who knows what this lineup looks like in two years?

In other words:

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PenGoater99</b></div><div>If it doesn't make the team better right now, it doesn't matter.</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2023 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I took a few things away from this. I think the Kings do still have the culture of winning. Heck Doughty, Kopitar and Quick were some of the faces of those runs they went on. I think this is what pushes them over the edge currently to having them have been extremely successful the past two seasons. I think it's a model that's extremely similar to the Blues model. The outcome is the process of the whole type of situation.

I do agree with you though, I don't really consider them a true top end team. They aren't a Tampa, and barring Byfield ascending to being a true 1C with high end output and Clarke doing the same I don't think they'll get there. But what they do have is an extremely good base that should keep them successful and give them a chance for the next 5, probably 10 years.

I also don't really think the Pacific has been all that great anytime in the recent past. Alot of teams with alot of true issues.

But the good news for them is they have an environment for guys like Byfield and Brandt to be brought into good positions and be the alpha dogs there in the next 2-3 years while winning and doing so. I don't mind Armstrong shooting for this. But I also am not sure it's feasible to avoid the longterm turnaround. One way or another we're going to have to age out the Krug contract, ESPECIALLY if Doug isn't going to play hardball on the NTC.

I'm in a boat that has a pretty large appreciation for Armstrong as the GM and President of Hockey Ops. I think he's very concealed, but also very open and honest about his direction. Has he had some mistakes? For sure. I don't think anyone is going to know what exactly went down with the whole Pietrangelo situation. But that was a major root into the downfall of the roster. Not necessarily just because of the loss of Pietrangelo, but also because of the moves that seemed to be made out of urgency to try and fill the gap.</div></div>

Well the Byfield/Brandt thing, that's more or less what the Blues did with Thomas and Kyrou right? The team was good when those guys were coming up after being mediocre-ish when they were drafted. The Blues just couldn't maintain the momentum. Maybe you can blame some of it on the flat cap but you talk about Pietrangelo leaving- like to me that was just the worst offender of a problem the Blues had for awhile, which is that they seemed to stop understanding what made defensemen valuable, and generally acted very reactively.

- You extend Faulk into his mid thirties when he had never played a game while you're trying to re-sign your captain
- Bouwmeester goes down permanently and your only LHD is Vince Dunn so you panic and extend Scandella in his mid thirties based on 10 games while still trying to re-sign your captain
- Pietrangelo leaves so you panic and extend Krug (never mind that Devon Toews was traded three days later)
- Extend Parayko coming off a back injury until he's 37 because you can't fathom another Pietrangelo situation
- Scandella can't hack top four minutes (who would have thought?) so you panic trade for Leddy (giving away a future top pairing defenseman in the process)

Some of these guys are big. Some of them are small. Some of them are offensive. Some of them not so much. Some of them are puck movers, some not. They're all over the place except for one thing- they're old, and they're as expensive as they'll ever be. And in the meantime they hemorrhage younger guys who would go on to play top pairing minutes on other teams, and look pretty good doing it.

I don't mean to relitigate all this but when it comes to Armstrong- I think he's a decent GM, can't deny the ring, but I do think all GMs have a shelf life, and that timeline of mismanagement on the blue line is pretty damming. And frankly, I like Travis Sanheim but that's another guy signed into oblivion Armstrong supposedly tried to trade for. Not exactly indicative of someone learning their lesson to me. He can be a good GM but also, idk, for me maybe it's time.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2023 at 3:56 p.m.
Thread: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>So i did a little bit of brief digging because i was moreso interested in how the Kings exactly went about things because the draft picks the higher ones really have not been a huge factor thus far.

2017-2018 45-29-8 (98 points)
Notable Salaries:
Doughty 11m Thru 25-26 Still Active
Kopitar 10m thru 23-24 Still Active
Quick 5.8m thru 22-23 Traded last deadline
Brown 5.875 thru 21-22 Ran through Expiry
Kovalchuk 6.25 thru 20-21 (Contract Terminated 2019)
Martinez 4m thru 20-21 (Traded 2020 (2 2nd round picks))
Carter 5.275 thru 21-22 (Traded 2021 50% retained on expiring deal for 3rd + 4th)

After this season is when their collapse started equivalent to last season for us. They had made a few small additions in the offseason but nothing big.

2018-2019 31-42-9 (71 points)
extended Walker 2.65 thru 23-24
Maata 3.33 thru 21-22
Kempe 2m x 2
Iafollo 2.425 one year

The following 2 seasons they did largely nothing

2019-2020 29-35-6 (64 points)
No significant adds very similar

2020-2021 (49 points) COVID Year 6th in div
No significant adds very similar

Then this is where they started to be aggressive as there was very limited time on Brown, Maata expiring. Quick couple years left.
2021-2022 (99 points)
Added Danault
Added Arvidsson
added Edler
extended Roy
added Athanasiou
Trevor Moore Bridge
Stetcher minimal contract

Then the next year they added Fiala and that's pretty current to where they stand. Now there was certainly youth that came in to play in this but it wasn't very significant.

Vilardi 54 games 24 points 2020-21, missed most of 21-22, good season last season then traded in PLD trade.
Kalyiev had a pretty minimal contribution in 21-22, .5ppg last season in limited action, this season looks like he's taking another stride.
Byfield hasn't really jumped until this season. Last season wasn't bad.

What can we learn from this?

LAK realized it pretty quickly and started selling - Armstrong did the same this past season with ROR/Barby/Tarasenko

They then went into a holding pattern to let some of the other contracts run out (Brown, Kovalchuk (got lucky here), Carter, Martinez (debatable if it needed to run out wasn't awful), Quick, Kopitar, Doughty). The last two aren't really part of a problem really, just moreso they are running towards the end of their careers so included them.

What do the Blues have in that front that need to run out?
Saad - 3 more at 4.5m
Hayes - 3 more at 3.6m
Schenn - 5 more at 6.5m
Krug - 4 more at 6.5m
Faulk- 4 more at 6.5m
Leddy- 3 more at 4m
Parayko - 7 more at 6.5m
Scandella - Expiring this season not integral.

You can categorize Parayko, and probably Schenn in that moreso Kopitar and Doughty scenario. But they aren't those two. So there's one hurdle to climb. But what is good (Or bad however you view it) is that we essentially already have our Fiala in Kyrou, I would take Thomas' contribution over PLDs as well.

So while we can probably comp to the pieces that LA had we have alot larger of a hill to climb. Meaning I don't really see too well how we are going to start that uptick in year 4 of the retool without additional work (Moving Faulk/Krug). But what is good is the youth injection that we will probably miss out on isn't what turned things around for LA. However, it's highly likely it's going to be what pushes them upwards even more. So do we <em>Need<em> to bottom out? No not necessarily. LA rebounded with mainly young guys who weren't high end talents jumping up and their roles expanding. What worries me is how we're going to navigate adding in supplemental guys - Arvidsson/Iafollo/Danault/ to help push us over the edge if we dont</em></em></div></div>

Nice work! I'm sure that took a long time lol.

Yeah like I said I'm not totally sold on the Kings as like true cup contenders a big reason for that is a lot of their guys are really good but not great. To their credit, they do have a LOT of those really good guys, more than most teams. Kempe/Fiala/Danault/Roy/Gavrikov, even Dubois (maybe at a reduced price)- these are important guys that you have at the top of your lineup. But, I'm not sure they are the ones that are really making it happen in the playoffs. Kopitar/Doughty- still very very good but I'm not sure if they're still at that gamebreaking level. And then the young guys might just be a little too green.

I guess I'm also not looking at the Kings as a roster that's been "successfully" rebuilt. Like they're good this year and they've been decent the last couple of years. But since they won the cup in 2014 this is how it's gone:

14-15 missed playoffs
15-16 lost in first round
16-17 missed playoffs
17-18 lost in first round
18-19 missed playoffs
19-20 missed playoffs
20-21 missed playoffs
21-22 lost in first round
22-23 lost in first round

Maybe you cut them some slack for running into the Oilers twice and obviously there's still a wide range of possibilities for their future but I guess I'm not looking at this rebuild, with a lot of depth, a lot of big names but not a lot of game breaking talent anymore, and being like "woah the Kings!". They've done some good work here and there but they wasted a lot of prime years of Kopitar and Doughty without much direction after the 2nd cup win, then they rebuilt (which was necessary) and by necessity, had to burn more prime years, and now they're good but like I said I don't know that they have what it takes to get past some of the bigger guns in the conference.

So if Armstrong wants to emulate the Kings, I kind of would hope he would aim higher and be more aggressive (in one way or another).
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2023 at 2:48 p.m.
Thread: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I think you’re taking it a bit too literally. But yes, it’s going to be extremely hard to replicate. I think what Army was getting at was moreso having a short term turnaround 3-4 years versus 7-8. The odd thing about the Kings is yes they did bottom out. But I don’t think you can look at the players they bottomed out and got and say they’re the reason things turned around for LAK.

I’m interested to see what their contract structure looked like</div></div>

The Kings were just good about acquiring the right guys at the right time (mostly). They went out and got Fiala, and Gavrikov, and Danault and that set them up to be a team that had strong depth. They had drafted well previously too (Kempe, Roy). But they were also very fortunate that Doughty and Kopitar didn't bite the dust in their early thirties.

I'm not sold on the Kings as true cup contenders but they seem to be clicking at a higher level than the past 2-3 years and I do have to say I think you can attribute a lot of that to Byfield having been really really good this year.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2023 at 2:36 p.m.
Thread: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>What is frustrating to me is when Army says he wants to replicate the LA rebuild. Except:
1 - their fading/aging talents (Kopitar, Doughty) are a lot better players than ours (Schenn, Parayko). It's a lesser gamble to count on the mid-30s of elite players.
2 - their draft picks were 5oa, 2oa (4oa before lotto), 8oa when they bottomed out. Does Army think 10oa-25oa-29oa last year was good enough to start the turnaround? If not, why did he build a team to try to get 85-90 pts?
3 - they found Fiala just like we found Buch, but we got Buch too early in the timeline and his impact on the future, rebuilt team is in limbo. Fiala's entire prime will be spent with the rebuilt team.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>My take: Regardless of how short you want a rebuild to be, you need to add cornerstone pieces from the top of the draft. I don't think the long rebuilds are ever on purpose. No GM is ever saying "we're gonna tear it all down and maybe in 8-10 yrs we'll have a good team again". Maybe they can't find the culture shift back to winning, but the way I see it, 'winning culture' doesn't matter in this league until you've got top talent at the key positions. And other than some pure luck/randomness the only way to get it is at the top of the draft. 15 of 17 championship teams of the cap era (oh the irony that one of them is the Blues built by DA) has had a player they drafted 1 or 2 overall. So if you're gonna rebuild, don't take half measures and think it will make it go quicker.</div></div>

You need to have elite talent from somewhere. The best place to find it- and keep it- is at the top of the draft, but we saw from Vegas that it doesn't necessarily have to be that way (sure, Marchessault was an expansion piece, but do they get to where they wanted to go without adding Stone/Eichel/Pietrangelo? Probably not).

But the Blues haven't even really done that as far as acquiring elite talent. They haven't drafted higher than 10 in 15 years. They've found some pretty good players in the rough (Kyrou, Parayko) but they're no Mark Stone or Jason Roberston. They pulled off the O'Reilly trade which, I mean, who can deny the impact, but they've let more of those guys go than kept them. Couldn't connect on Tkachuk. Couldn't connect on Eichel. Couldn't make a pitch for Dougie Hamilton and ultimately couldn't sell their own top end defenseman on staying in St. Louis. The hemorrhaging of elite talent while commiting to good-but-not-great players like Binnington, Schenn, even Krug and Leddy is- to me- what prematurely closed the window.

I think the Blues in particular need to find it at the top of the draft given where their team is (lot of old guys, not a big young core). But if they won't tank, they're going to have to get more creative on finding guys late in the draft or guys that other teams are undervaluing. Dallas isn't a perfect example (given that they drafted Heiskanen #3), but they pulled Robertson out of thin air. Hintz and Stankoven were also second round picks. They drafted Johnston, Oettinger and Harley late-ish in the first round. They went out and got Lundkvist. Not trying to bash guys that aren't even fully developed but I'm not sure that Theo Lindstein and Zach Dean are going to measure up in that way, even if they end up being fine players.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2023 at 1:34 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2023 at 1:27 p.m.
Thread: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Frankly, Berube's line-up management (who dresses/line combos/D pairings, etc) has been a big problem this season, but nobody talks about it. I doubt it gets any better any time soon.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>The problem with Parayko (who has always been my favorite of the bunch) is that he’s signed for oblivion and will almost certainly not be helping the team when they’re ready to compete and make the playoffs. Plus, trading him might make the bottom fall out of this team which could put us in position to draft top talent. And he theoretically could get a nice return.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I think you're severely downplaying what Parayko brings to a team. But in general yeah, the rest of the group has some strengths but also some glaring weaknesses.</div></div>

I mean this is a problem that stems from the Blues inability to pick a direction and these self imposed rules that Armstrong/Blues ownership is insistent on. If they're going to be bad they should trade Parayko (and Faulk, and Buchnevich, and Binnington, and probably every other good player over 27). If they're going to be good they need to be clearing out their guys that aren't producing and using their TDL haul to improve the team. They did neither, and so now they're like a team that's mostly making hay on Binnington playing well and Jake Neighbours shooting 28%. Might make the playoffs (which, honestly, is probably all they care about for that sweet sweet home game playoff revenue) but you're just banking on Cinderella runs that more often than not fall short anyway, not building a real contender.

And I get that Armstrong checked in on Timo Meier and tried to ship Krug out with one of the 1sts (not convinced that the latter would have necessarily been a good move and also Timo Meier has been terrible this year) but at the end of the day he didn't pull either of those or anything else of note off so...stuck in the middle it is.


Sorry for staking up comments here I came like twenty minutes late to the party.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2023 at 1:22 p.m.
Thread: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>More likely they're waiting to trade a body (or for an injury opening) so they have space to call someone up without sending someone else through waivers.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>True but I’m surprised it hasn’t happened yet. Berube clearly has no trust in Blais and Alexandrov and Vrana is pretty awful. I thought we’d have seen Gaudette or Walker or Mac by now.</div></div>

I don't think we're going to be seeing him until after the TDL as long as the Blues are still halfway competitive. They'll trade Kapanen and Vrana and then maybe Bolduc and Snuggerud will get their games.

And why should we? Last five games aside he has not exactly been earth shattering in the AHL. QMJHL guys usually need at least one year to figure out how to play a men's hockey game. No reason to rush him onto the big club. I think getting a longer sample size on him having a high level of play is best for his development, especially after his slow start.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2023 at 1:16 p.m.
Thread: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>I’d take Carl gunnarsson out of Lindstein!</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>BOOM BOOM GUNNARSSON! I've seen some people talk about Lindstein like he can be a Jonas Brodin and I'd love that! I just don't see much from him... hopefully he's just a late bloomer.</div></div>

Gunnarsson out of Lindstein would be fine, a solid if unremarkable NHL player is about what you should be hoping to get out of a late first round pick.

That said I do wish they would take some bigger swings. Lindstein is almost certainly going to play NHL games, but I would have been interested in some more boom-or-bust guys that the Blues seem to be allergic to picking.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 2:09 p.m.
Thread: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>give or take a 2nd potentially becomes a 1st, zetterlund, and a 3.4 mill cap dump being taken.

Yes that is a significant difference in trade value.</div></div>

It becomes significant if that 2nd becomes a first. I'll admit I forgot about the conditions there, though it's not looking particularly likely that that's going to hit. A late 2nd is not as valuable as everyone seems to think they are. Zetterlund to me is inconsequential, he's a young-but-not-that-young NHL body who played well-but-not-that-well on a team where everyone was playing well. And that cap hit removal was crucial for the devils to make this trade work at all.

I think Meier's insanely good, I think San Jose should have gotten more. I think it was not a good trade return for them and my feeling on Buchnevich fetching more in a trade is pretty much entirely thinking that trade was underwhelming for San Jose and because Buchnevich offers certain advantages that teams up against the cap would find valuable (advantages Meier- a better player- did not offer)
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 2:06 p.m.
Thread: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Hagel can return that because were guaranteed 4 years dirt cheap even if they qualify him, and will end up getting 11 at a 5.1 mill AAV. Hagel, even if you view him as just a 6 million dollar player (I view him around 7.5), generates 13.5 million dollars over that 3 years+ the RFA control
Meier as a 10 million dollar player generates 19.1 million dollars in excess value over the term
Buch even if you view him as a 10 million dollar player (which I don't) generates just 14.2 mill in excess value in 2 years of control 50% retained.</div></div>

This is a gross mischaracterization of how the cap work. You can't average out his cap hit between two different contracts. And again, they're in it to win now

Also I think that Meier would be a 10 million dollar player had he been 26 year old UFA in a 90 million cap environment, and I think Buchnevich would be a slightly-less-but-probably-not-as-much-as-you-think player if he was 26 and hitting UFA in a 90 million cap environment (instead of 30 like he's going to be). There's a good chance his next contract is 8million regardless.

Obviously no one is paying a 30 year old 10 million bucks. The ages are different, so the contracts that they're going to get are not going to be comparable.

But again the years of below market cost certainty are what you're paying for. Meier had zero years of below market cost certainty for the Devils to take advantage of. Buchnevich, hypothetically, will have one. Hagel had two. I see the price for Buchnevich as being somewhere in between Meier and Hagel (a late1st, and a B+/A- prospect plus a bunch of stuff that's not really important depending on how you feel about Zetterlund, and 2 late 1sts plus 2 B prospects) because his upside contains elements of both trades.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 1:53 p.m.
Thread: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>The devils got meier for 1 playoff run at 500k (because they dumped the johnsson contract), and then 8 more years of term on him</div></div>

They got him for 2 months and 1 playoff run, and then had to pay him 70 million dollars to keep him around for the next 8 years.

Versus you get him for 2 months and 1 playoff year, then an additional entire regular season at 3 million, plus another playoff run, before you have to even think about paying him any more money. That gives you more cap space than Meier is giving the Devils this season to make additional moves. That's valuable for teams that are capped out.

Because San Jose didn't trade Meier with that extension, they didn't get compensated for the 8 years of term. They got compensated for New Jersey getting the first opportunity to extend him, an opportunity that was effectively neutralized by Meier's high QO and proximity to UFA. That's why the return (once you factor in the cost to dump Johnsson) was basically no more than a single year rental- a 1st and a good prospect. The Blues would not be in that position- Buchnevich is signed, you have to compesate them for that extra year of term.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 1:43 p.m.
Thread: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>It comes down to this. RFA prices are cheaper than UFA prices because of the market and how teams refuse to make offer sheets.

If buch is worth all this, surely his UFA deal will be 10+ million</div></div>

Buch is worth this because you are getting him for two playoff runs at 3million bucks. They were only getting Meier for one of those, and not a full regular season during their contention window, and then they had to negotiate a 70 million dollar extension with him. I do not understand what you're not getting about this. No one is saying a 30 year old is worth 10million bucks just like no one was saying that because Hagel got 2 first and 2 B prospects that he was worth 10 million bucks.

A hypothetical extension, his UFA/RFA status, that is a nightcap on the main couse which is a top line player at a ridiculous price for two playoff runs. Teams that would be acquiring him are in it to win now.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 1:39 p.m.
Thread: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>The meier trade was the top of the market.

Buchnevich isn't anything special on the PP.</div></div>

You're the one saying he's basically the same player except he gets power play time now. If his power play stuff isn't that good idk why you're bringing it up. Pick a lane. If his pp isn't that good, then he's just a really productive 5v5 player.

And again, just because Meier was the top of the market doesn't mean that the Sharks got a good return. A 1st round pick, NJs like 6th best prospect and a bunch of stuff no one cares about. I think in a more robust market Buchnevich could fetch more than that. The market for Meier wasn't very robust for all the reasons I laid out that you ignored.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Hagel cost 1.5 and had RFA control, upside, and then they got him on an 8 year deal because of that RFA control.

You're simply underestimating how much RFA control is worth in today's NHL.</div></div>

I completely disagree, I think you're overestimating it. We've seen multiple players- including Meier himself- use the nuances of their RFA status to push their preferred destination. Debrincat, Tkachuk, Dubois as well. The Sharks had the same control, but they hemmed and hawed about possibly re-signing him all season until Meier finally said he wouldn't sign. Being an RFA doesn't magically mean you're absolutely going to stay just like being a UFA doesn't magically mean you're absolutely going to leave.

Tampa didn't trade for Hagel because they were excited to get him on a 8 year deal. They traded for Hagel because they wanted a middle six player with top six potential making 1.5 million for multiple playoff runs. That is what is being offered in a Buchnevich trade as well- multiple playoff runs with a player on a significant discount. Also they extended him a year early, so his RFA status didn't even factor in.

Buchnevich is older and he isn't signed for as long, but he's also a better player than Hagel was then. There will be risk associated with extending him at age 30 but the contending team will be the first one to have an opportunity make an offer to him, just like Hagel. Until then they can get a PPG player that can be used in all situations for less than 3 million, and for teams in win now mode that's all that really matters here.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 9:51 a.m.
Thread: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Oh are we pretending it's 2+ years ago? And that every awful trade sets the market forever? How on Earth is what the Blues paid for him even infinitesimally relevant here?

Buch is easily morr valuable than Toffoli right now. Also irrelevant.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>I don't know what to tell you.
We saw what Buchnevich RFA rights went for. We saw the contract he got. His production 5v5 is virtually identical to what it was before then
The UFA market, especially on wingers has a peak, and it isn't all that high.

Meier had a large bidding war because his skillset is valued leaguewide. He got a contract that reflects that.

Just look at what Toffoli went for both times.</div></div>

Yeah the disconnect here really seems to be that one person believes previous trade values are unimpeachable. Buchnevich RFA trades and Meier trades were both not particularly good for the team giving them away, but there were extraneous circumstances that contributed to that in both cases (I outlined why I think the Sharks didn't do very well in the Meier trade in my previous comment. Buchnevich obviously I think the GM didn't do a good enough job to drive up prices but in Drury's defense his team was capped out and Buchnevich was due an unknown muli-million dollar contract with a short resume coming off a year with no fans in the building where most teams were unwilling to spend real dollars).

These previous trade values can only be taken if the context is the same, and I think the circumstances of a hypothetical Buchnevich trade are much different than when he got traded the first time and when Meier was traded to the Devils.

Also this whole "his production at 5v5 is the basically the same" thing, like I get what you're saying but that's not how player values work, even stripping the financial context I just mentioned of that trade. Being a consistent 5v5 player for 5 years is more valuable than being one for 2 years, obviously. Also a player being good on the power play is worth something, GMs aren't just going to pretend that doesn't exist just because it didn't when he was in New York. He got an opportunity in St. Louis and ran with it. He's been a consistent, top line presence in all situations in St. Louis and you could get him for 3 million this year and next year. That should be worth a lot.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 9:28 a.m.
Thread: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>I disagree on that.

Meier&gt;Buch quite clearly imo.

meier was a rental + 8 years extension
buch is a rental +rental

Meier at 8x8.8 likely has more value around the league than 1 year of Buch at 2.9</div></div>

Not arguing that Buchnevich is better than Meier, and I said as much in my original comment.

The Devils didn't trade for Meier with an extension though, so you can't act like that factored super heavily into the trade return. The Devils had cap space and probably felt good about getting him signed long term, but at the time of his trade he had a 10million QO and was one year away from free agency, the Devils did not know what that next contract was going to look like when they traded for him.

Also then you have to fit a nearly 9 million dollar salary in immediately the following year, which not many contending teams can do (the Devils obviously could). A top line player making 2.9 million is much easier to fit in and teams are starting to wise up to that strategy. Look at the Lightning, paying a premium to have Coleman and Hagel (worse players than Buchnevich) signed for multiple playoff runs at reasonable rates.

It's not about Buchnevich being better than Meier, it's about how many teams can fit him into the lineup and for how long. I said I don't think the Sharks did particularly well in the Meier trade, and I think the reason for that is 1) they knew they had to trade him, 2) the prospect of fitting a 9million dollar player in the next season was a non starter for most teams, and 3) Meier had a lot of control over the situation given his high QO and proximity to free agency. None of those things apply to Buchnevich and so even though he's a slightly lesser (but still top-line) player I think he should return better than Meier.
Forum: Fauteuil - DGNov. 17, 2023 at 3:26 p.m.
Thread: The most underrated trades of the offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ht42</b></div><div>Its more 36% of the total of Petry contract (Pittsburg rentain 25 % of the Petry contract).

Petry contract : $ 6 500 000

PIT : $ 1 562 500
MTL : $ 2 343 750
DET : $ 2 343 750</div></div>



<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Detroit has more cap space with no LITR. But you missed the point that Montreal is paying just as much for Detroit's mistake as Detroit is.</div></div>

You guys are both looking at cap space which isn't really an factor for either of these teams at the moment. Gotta look at real dollars- by taking on a bit of Petry (3.47 million, spread over two years), Lindstrom for one year (950k), whatever Legace is making (league min or less?) and dumping Pitlick and Hoffman (6.1 million combined), they saved a bit over a million bucks. They also received a 2nd and a 4th for their troubles. That's a good trade (even if a million bucks to Montreal is probably a rounding error).

Is it "the most underrated trade"? Lindstrom or Legace would have to turn out to really be something I think for me to go that far. But can't deny it's good business for them to save a little money and get a few extra draft picks. Smart move for a rebuilding team.