That full year offseason rental doesn't go for as much as you'd think especially on a winger. Just look at what toffoli got.

What about Giroux and Tarasenko? They weren't even full-year rentals, both fetched a 1st+.

Conroy just didn't do a good job maybe, perhaps he overvalued Sharangovich, or there just wasn't a market for Toffoli at the time and he wanted out. The closest that Toffoli had (aside from this year) to PPG was last year when he had 73/82. Prior to his career average was 50pts a season. He's not a comparable player to Buchnevich. Toffoli was similar to JT Miller before he found another gear in 2019-20 at age 26. Toffoli is doing it at 31, so in that sense he's more like Kadri except so far he's keeping it up.

Half year rentals have higher floors yes. Any decent rental is gonna fetch a 1st. They also generally have caps and don't go for much more than that.

Okay, now were are talking about a 1.75 year rental or 1.5 year if he's traded later. At the end of the day, he's a PPG player making 5.85M with term he's not coming cheap, especially with retention that would only make him more desirable. It would definitely be a unique situation that could get the Blues a lot of interest. The only high-end player that I can think of who got traded with 2-years or so left is Cory Schneider.

Yes because the return for 2 years of a pending UFA rarely ends up much better than just keeping and selling as a rental

That might be true, but it's also rare that they come at 3.47% of the cap, good chance that it would be a first.

50% retention probably nets you an extra 2.9 mill retention full year probably nets you a 2nd, halfway through this year probably a 3rd.

Other than that you're probably looking closer to the toffoli to calgary deal.

2.5 years of toffoli at 4.25 for a 1st and some nothing depth.

Oh are we pretending it's 2+ years ago? And that every awful trade sets the market forever? How on Earth is what the Blues paid for him even infinitesimally relevant here?

Buch is easily morr valuable than Toffoli right now. Also irrelevant.

Buchnevich has a career high of 11.3 xGoals 5v5, back in 2019 with the rangers.

Toffoli has surpassed that every year except 2021, 2013 and 2012.

Meier generated 45.6 xGoals 5v5 in 21-22 and 22-23. Buchnevich has that many since halfway thru 2018.

Because it's a good metric for how he is valued around the league. His play hasn't improved since then, just getting more PP time.

Toffoli from MTL to CGY was a 2nd line winger, so what do you think he would have gotten if he had 5 or 7 years at 4.25M?

I love when people drag out xG and on ice stats for an individual comparison to cover for not actuallywatchung one of the players. A dead giveaway. Makes me laugh.

Not arguing that Buchnevich is better than Meier, and I said as much in my original comment.

The Devils didn't trade for Meier with an extension though, so you can't act like that factored super heavily into the trade return. The Devils had cap space and probably felt good about getting him signed long term, but at the time of his trade he had a 10million QO and was one year away from free agency, the Devils did not know what that next contract was going to look like when they traded for him.

Also then you have to fit a nearly 9 million dollar salary in immediately the following year, which not many contending teams can do (the Devils obviously could). A top line player making 2.9 million is much easier to fit in and teams are starting to wise up to that strategy. Look at the Lightning, paying a premium to have Coleman and Hagel (worse players than Buchnevich) signed for multiple playoff runs at reasonable rates.

It's not about Buchnevich being better than Meier, it's about how many teams can fit him into the lineup and for how long. I said I don't think the Sharks did particularly well in the Meier trade, and I think the reason for that is 1) they knew they had to trade him, 2) the prospect of fitting a 9million dollar player in the next season was a non starter for most teams, and 3) Meier had a lot of control over the situation given his high QO and proximity to free agency. None of those things apply to Buchnevich and so even though he's a slightly lesser (but still top-line) player I think he should return better than Meier.

Yeah the disconnect here really seems to be that one person believes previous trade values are unimpeachable. Buchnevich RFA trades and Meier trades were both not particularly good for the team giving them away, but there were extraneous circumstances that contributed to that in both cases (I outlined why I think the Sharks didn't do very well in the Meier trade in my previous comment. Buchnevich obviously I think the GM didn't do a good enough job to drive up prices but in Drury's defense his team was capped out and Buchnevich was due an unknown muli-million dollar contract with a short resume coming off a year with no fans in the building where most teams were unwilling to spend real dollars).

These previous trade values can only be taken if the context is the same, and I think the circumstances of a hypothetical Buchnevich trade are much different than when he got traded the first time and when Meier was traded to the Devils.

Also this whole "his production at 5v5 is the basically the same" thing, like I get what you're saying but that's not how player values work, even stripping the financial context I just mentioned of that trade. Being a consistent 5v5 player for 5 years is more valuable than being one for 2 years, obviously. Also a player being good on the power play is worth something, GMs aren't just going to pretend that doesn't exist just because it didn't when he was in New York. He got an opportunity in St. Louis and ran with it. He's been a consistent, top line presence in all situations in St. Louis and you could get him for 3 million this year and next year. That should be worth a lot.

Hagel cost 1.5 and had RFA control, upside, and then they got him on an 8 year deal because of that RFA control.

You're simply underestimating how much RFA control is worth in today's NHL.

The meier trade was the top of the market.

Buchnevich isn't anything special on the PP.

I completely disagree, I think you're overestimating it. We've seen multiple players- including Meier himself- use the nuances of their RFA status to push their preferred destination. Debrincat, Tkachuk, Dubois as well. The Sharks had the same control, but they hemmed and hawed about possibly re-signing him all season until Meier finally said he wouldn't sign. Being an RFA doesn't magically mean you're absolutely going to stay just like being a UFA doesn't magically mean you're absolutely going to leave.

Tampa didn't trade for Hagel because they were excited to get him on a 8 year deal. They traded for Hagel because they wanted a middle six player with top six potential making 1.5 million for multiple playoff runs. That is what is being offered in a Buchnevich trade as well- multiple playoff runs with a player on a significant discount. Also they extended him a year early, so his RFA status didn't even factor in.

Buchnevich is older and he isn't signed for as long, but he's also a better player than Hagel was then. There will be risk associated with extending him at age 30 but the contending team will be the first one to have an opportunity make an offer to him, just like Hagel. Until then they can get a PPG player that can be used in all situations for less than 3 million, and for teams in win now mode that's all that really matters here.

Hagel had 2.5 years on a 1.5 mill deal and THEN rfa control

Buch has 1.5 years and then nothing

Those are not comparable levels of control

It comes down to this. RFA prices are cheaper than UFA prices because of the market and how teams refuse to make offer sheets.

If buch is worth all this, surely his UFA deal will be 10+ million

You're the one saying he's basically the same player except he gets power play time now. If his power play stuff isn't that good idk why you're bringing it up. Pick a lane. If his pp isn't that good, then he's just a really productive 5v5 player.

And again, just because Meier was the top of the market doesn't mean that the Sharks got a good return. A 1st round pick, NJs like 6th best prospect and a bunch of stuff no one cares about. I think in a more robust market Buchnevich could fetch more than that. The market for Meier wasn't very robust for all the reasons I laid out that you ignored.

Buch is worth this because you are getting him for two playoff runs at 3million bucks. They were only getting Meier for one of those, and not a full regular season during their contention window, and then they had to negotiate a 70 million dollar extension with him. I do not understand what you're not getting about this. No one is saying a 30 year old is worth 10million bucks just like no one was saying that because Hagel got 2 first and 2 B prospects that he was worth 10 million bucks.

A hypothetical extension, his UFA/RFA status, that is a nightcap on the main couse which is a top line player at a ridiculous price for two playoff runs. Teams that would be acquiring him are in it to win now.

The devils got meier for 1 playoff run at 500k (because they dumped the johnsson contract), and then 8 more years of term on him

Hagel can return that because were guaranteed 4 years dirt cheap even if they qualify him, and will end up getting 11 at a 5.1 mill AAV. Hagel, even if you view him as just a 6 million dollar player (I view him around 7.5), generates 13.5 million dollars over that 3 years+ the RFA control
Meier as a 10 million dollar player generates 19.1 million dollars in excess value over the term
Buch even if you view him as a 10 million dollar player (which I don't) generates just 14.2 mill in excess value in 2 years of control 50% retained.

Oh seems like you're just underestimating the Meier return

1st
1st/2nd
solid 23 year old roster player who was averaging half a ppg
another young depth dman
top 50-75 prospect in the NHL

Yes, buchnevich can fetch a 1st, solid prospect, and other pieces nobody cares about. That's not the meier return tho

They got him for 2 months and 1 playoff run, and then had to pay him 70 million dollars to keep him around for the next 8 years.

Versus you get him for 2 months and 1 playoff year, then an additional entire regular season at 3 million, plus another playoff run, before you have to even think about paying him any more money. That gives you more cap space than Meier is giving the Devils this season to make additional moves. That's valuable for teams that are capped out.

Because San Jose didn't trade Meier with that extension, they didn't get compensated for the 8 years of term. They got compensated for New Jersey getting the first opportunity to extend him, an opportunity that was effectively neutralized by Meier's high QO and proximity to UFA. That's why the return (once you factor in the cost to dump Johnsson) was basically no more than a single year rental- a 1st and a good prospect. The Blues would not be in that position- Buchnevich is signed, you have to compesate them for that extra year of term.