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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2018 at 1:54 p.m.
Thread: What i want
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>The NHL lists a lot of right wings as centers. Usually the best guy on a junior team plays center, so that guy gets drafted, and moved to the wing. The NHL lists 275 centers last year, but only 142 right wings. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=R&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=points" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=R&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=points</a> Scroll down to "records returned"

So even though Tom Wilson was 44th in points among listed right wings, good for 2nd liner money, he's 175th in points by a forward (<a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=F&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=points" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=F&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=points</a>). If there are 93 1st line forwards and 93 2nd line forwards, Tom Wilson's offensive totals, whle playing with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov, were 175th out of 186 top six forwards. There were 11 2nd line forwards with fewer points than Wilson. Now, if there were a dozen top six forwards in the NHL who got less than 35 points due to injury or inexplicable coaches' decisions (cough cough Bura-Cough-sky), then maybe Tom Wilson is still a 3rd line forward.

I think Wilson, like Kempny, is someone who can be a complimentary player with some of the best players in the world, which does take a lot of skill, but each has yet to prove he's able to drive play on his own. If he makes $3M a year, that's great for him. If he makes $4M a year, that's not so great for the Caps and they might as well try to trade him, plus, for a young 30 goal scorer who helps with puck possession like Zucker.</div></div>

Again, I'm talking even strength numbers seeing as Wilson gets no power play time. He had 1 power play point and 1 short handed point which leaves him tied for 121st in even strength points among all forwards. This ties him with the likes of Coyle, PLD, and Henrik Sedin. Which is clearly in the top 6 forward range.

Wilson isn't ever going to be the guy that carries a line. He doesn't need to be either. He is so incredibly effective in his role and complements more skilled players with his skating and physical presence. And you can't just judge every player by their statistics. I've watched Kozlov, Semin, Knuble, and so many other wingers put up bigger numbers than Wilson while playing with Ovechkin. None have been as effective as Wilson, especially when it matters in the playoffs. Wilson is going to get his money, and he deserves every penny.

And I think a lot of us are forgetting, he's 24 years old and still getting better. To think this is where he tops out offensively is just silly.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2018 at 4:05 p.m.
Thread: What i want
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Nothing says cap management like giving a 4th liner $285,714.29 per goal he scores. Wilson is a valuable player but doesn't deserve more than 2.5 million a season. He's not a top 6 forward, he's a bottom 6 who can at times player higher up but he's best suited as a bottom 6 guy. Don't pay depth guys bigger money ever, if they want it, let them go.</div></div>

Tom Wilson was 28th in the NHL this past season in even strength points for right wingers. It's pretty clear that he's not a bottom six forward anymore. And his last contract he was paid 2 million per year, you really think after the jump in production he had during the regular season and playoffs he's only going to receive a half million dollar raise?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 14, 2018 at 1:50 p.m.
Thread: my caps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Bowey is four years younger, and was 90% as good last year. I think you predict 23 year olds to improve until 27, and 27 year olds to level off, a bit. So Bowey should be a good bit better this year.

I think if they don't bring back Orpik, they look at a free agent tough guy/shutdown guy. Emelin is basically Orpik, but speaks Russian. Franson hits a little bit, but not as much as teams keep hoping.

Lewington should be ready in another year or two, so it doesn't have to be a long term answer.</div></div>

I'm thinking if they do go with Jerebek it's for a year, just as a stop gap. For the right price I wouldn't really mind Emelin or Franson, but I like the skating of Jerebek more than I like either of those guys. I'm hoping Bowey is ready this year and can play 60+ games and this isn't an issue but I'm sure the Caps will be prepared and have a solid 6/7 D guy.

And I could see Lewington getting some games if the blue line gets banged up, but I'm not sure he has to foot speed to keep up at the NHL level, hope I'm wrong.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 10, 2018 at 8:37 p.m.
Thread: Make it happen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>3 million tops, and the reason why I say this, is because as soon as they find someone who is far more talented (He's not a skill guy, he's a wrecking ball, which is fine, but lets call a spade a spade) and has any kind of chemistry with Ovie and Kuznetsov, Wilson turns into a 3rd or 4th liner making over 4 million.

Look at Patrick Maroon who is a big bruising forward who scored 30 goals playing with McDavid, put him with someone other than McDavid and he can't score. If you give him 6 years and 4.5 million and then find someone else who plays better with McDavid, then you're stuck with a 3rd line winger making 4.5 million dollars. Who wants to trade for a 3rd liner who makes 4.5 million when you can get guys like Tyler Ennis for the league minimum.</div></div>

He's definitely not Ovechkin or Oshie, but I think you're definitely under selling his skill. Also they're not going to bring in any other forward anytime soon. They just won a cup with this group and as soon as they sign Wilson they'll have 14 forwards under contract. And if you look in the prospect pool none of these guys appear to project as top 6 guys. And as a team the Caps need to solidify their blue line, they're not looking at adding new forwards.

And let's even say Vrana and Burakovsky both end up being 25+ goal scorers this season (which I highly doubt happens) and the Caps feel they need to move Wilson's contract in order to make room for their new contracts. Just because he's a 3rd liner on a cup contender doesn't mean he's a 3rd liner on every other team, he still has that top 6 value for plenty of other teams. Guys who are that big, skate like that, kill penalties, play a rough game, and can add some scoring are not easy to come by in this league. And like I said earlier, he was a run of the mill bottom six forward early in his career. But this past year he has transformed himself into a much more productive player.

Also I'm not sure how either Ennis or Maroon apply to this scenario. Players like Ennis are a dime a dozen for the league minimum, sometimes they pan out sometimes they don't. I watch the Caps do it year after year, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Also Maroon never scored 30 with McDavid and in a small sample size after being moved he had 13 points in 16 games with the Devils so I think it's a little early to say what he can or can't do without McDavid.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 10, 2018 at 3:14 p.m.
Thread: Make it happen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>His linemates are elite hockey players, he is a 4th line grinder. Glorifying depth guys is about as bad a hockey decision you can make. Kapanen is a depth guy who doesn't hit all that much but if he played with Ovie and Kuznetsov, he'd create a tonne of space for them with his blazing speed, he'd also likely score a lot more goals and set up a lot more than Wilson as well.

I don't care what happened last year, you won the cup which was great, but its not because of Wilson. Ovie willed that team to win. Wilson was just along for the ride.</div></div>

DSP is a 4th line hockey player, and very good in that role. But when he was put on the 1st line during the Wilson suspension, there was a glaring difference in the way that line performed.

Was Wilson a top 6 forward at any point in his career before this season? Absolutely not. But he has certainly developed into one this past season. He's never going to be a player that is going to carry a 1st or 2nd line, but he's certainly a valuable piece to any top six. There's this misconception that you need to be a 50+ point producer in order to be a top 6 forward and that's not always the case. Wilson is one of those exceptions and it was very clear to see during the playoffs. He doesn't have the skill most top 6 forwards have but he's an excellent skater and the amount of ice he opens up for his line mates (see Ovechkin's goal in game 7 against Tampa) is a very underrated aspect of his game.

The guy is 24 and still developing. I'm not sure he'll get 4.25 AAV, that seems a bit on the high end, but he's certainly worth around the 3.5-4 million range.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 30, 2018 at 9:18 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 15, 2018 at 3:17 p.m.
Thread: Look at the team, then the trades. Phi, NYI, Buf, Edm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Thank you for digging that up. I will try to stop signing him, cool as it would be. I doubt McPhee is trying to trade his rights to the Caps right now, and I don't have much else I'd part with.... maybe rights to Boyd and Barber, and a 4th? I think McPhee screwed up his chances at Gusev by sending Shipachyov to the minors. That's a totally normal and reasonable thing for a GM to do with a rookie, but Ship didnt' see himself as a rookie, and it let Gusev see how he'll be treated in Vegas too. So Vegas should totally shop Gusev's rights and move on.

His value is really tough to figure out from his last trade. "His rights were traded to Vegas with a 2nd and a 4th round pick in exchange for selecting Jason Garrison (and his contract) instead of players like Slater Koekkoek, Jake Dotchin, Cedric Paquette, or J.T. Brown." (<a href="https://sinbin.vegas/when-if-ever-will-nikita-gusev-become-a-golden-knight/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://sinbin.vegas/when-if-ever-will-nikita-gusev-become-a-golden-knight/</a>) . Garrison earned 4M for playing unremarkably in the AHL, so maybe the 2nd was for taking Garrison, the 4th for not taking Paquette, and Gusev was a throw-in because TBL were having no luck with him either, but he seemed to provide good value, on paper? Whatever, I'd go to Boyd, Barber, and a 3rd.

Do you think that gets close, or it basically just never happens?</div></div>

For his rights I don't even think the Caps would have to give up much because there's no guarantee he'd even sign with the Caps. I think a 4th or 5th round pick and a guy like Boyd, Barber, Ikonen, or Siegenthaler could do it. You see guys rights get traded all the time for next to nothing because it's really a toss up if they'll sign with the team they've been traded to anyway.

But I'd like to hear what Gusev has to say. Because if he does have interest in the NHL I would like to think with all the Russians on the team this would be a good landing spot for him (also playing on a line with Kuznetsov in world juniors). But if he just wants to test the waters as a UFA next year that could work in the Caps favor as well.

And I completely agree with your statement of Shipachyov. After seeing that happen to a teammate and top KHL talent that could make Gusev a little wary of coming over to play with Vegas.

I would love to see the Caps work out a deal to get his rights, if they really think they have a legitimate shot signing him after this year. I've been a huge fan of his for a while, and I really think hit fit in well in D.C.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 15, 2018 at 2:17 p.m.
Thread: Look at the team, then the trades. Phi, NYI, Buf, Edm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Yes. Vegas control his NHL rights..... as I agreed with you above....</div></div>

Quote from Elliotte Friedman

"Nikita Gusev’s KHL contract ends, and he’s Vegas property. The tricky thing is Gusev will be one week shy of his 27th birthday on <strong>July 1, 2019</strong>. So, if he waits an extra year, he can pick his own spot as an unrestricted free agent."

According to this information, Gusev will still be Vegas property through this upcoming season which means the Caps would have to trade to obtain his rights, and he wouldn't be a UFA until next year July 8th on his 27th birthday.

And regardless of all this, I would be shocked if he plays outside of the KHL this year. He has played his whole career in Russia and hasn't expressed a ton of interest in coming to the NHL. I think he plays out his contract.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 15, 2018 at 1:56 p.m.
Thread: Look at the team, then the trades. Phi, NYI, Buf, Edm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Well, he was second in scoring in the KHL, and speaks Russian. If Ovechkin and Kuznetsov could win a Cup playing with recent third-liner Tom Wilson, I think they can get a little bit of offense going with a really talented prospect. And if you aren't going to read something, why bother quoting it?</div></div>

You used a fan run SB nation post from a year ago as reference. Vegas owns Gusev's rights. The Capitals would have to give up something in order to acquire him. He is under contract in the KHL. These are facts.

I like the guy too, and I'd love to see him in D.C. but you can't just walk around the facts and pretend the Caps can just sign him right now. it would be difficult.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 15, 2018 at 1:19 p.m.
Thread: Look at the team, then the trades. Phi, NYI, Buf, Edm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>This post is cool. I just added some footnotes to help.



1. but he can buy out the remainder of his contract for cash: <a href="https://www.rawcharge.com/2017/6/21/15846406/translation-are-nikita-gusevs-rights-getting-traded-to-vegas-from-sovsport-ru" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.rawcharge.com/2017/6/21/15846406/translation-are-nikita-gusevs-rights-getting-traded-to-vegas-from-sovsport-ru</a> Until there's a player transfer agreement or anything that acknowledges the KHL really exists in the NHL's CBA, I assume the Caps could also buy out that contract without incurring any salary cap penalty.

2. Until July 1st.

3. Or wait a long, arduous, heartbreaking two weeks and two days. But who's counting.

The real question is whether he can unseat WIlson for a top line role right away, so he doesn't face a language barrier on the ice. Hopefully, but I feel like Backstrom has helped at least one other Russian speaking winger overcome a similar language barrier, and remained pretty good friends.</div></div>

I'm a big Gusev guy as well and I would love to see him with the Caps. But I Just don't see him playing outside of the KHL this year and obviously there's the acquiring his rights issue as well. And he's never played a game in the NHL I think it would be pretty wishful thinking to project him as a first liner, even with his production in the KHL. Although I think he'd be a welcomed addition on a line with guys like Vrana/Burakvosky and Eller.

I'd love to be wrong on all of this, but I just feel there's too many obstacles to overcome there.