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capsleafs447

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Forum: Mock-DraftOct. 3, 2023 at 8:56 a.m.
Thread: 2024 Very Early Mock Draft w/ Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>I agree.



Philly is already waiting a while for Michkov. The trend for Russian prospects is play a couple of seasons in the KHL before coming to North America to play. Since the KHL doesn't doesn't put a cap on rookie contracts. When Putin invaded the Ukraine the NHL and KHL cut ties so they no longer have a transfer agreement. Will it still be an issue by the 2024 draft I have no idea.</div></div>

It's mostly all up to the player and when they want to come over so long as they're not under contract. In Michkov's case, his contract ends in 2026, in Demidov' case 2025. You're correct that in theory the player could sign another KHL contract and *really* screw over the team that drafts him, but that's where a team's FO needs to be comfortable that the player really wants to come over.

The only other complicated factor is the mandatory military service/upper education they require, although that's usually handled pretty swiftly and effectively by most of the player's agents (unless your name is Ivan Fedotov)
Forum: Mock-DraftOct. 3, 2023 at 12:37 a.m.
Thread: 2024 Very Early Mock Draft w/ Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Love it. NJD picking #32 is best part.

Philly takes Eiserman #2 (if San Jose doesn’t take him 1st)
Chicago takes Howe #19

And San Jose’s prospect pool, after adding Celebrini (or Eiserman), Connelly, Skahen and Emery is going to be atop the league.</div></div>

I agree.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DH28Hockey</b></div><div>Was actually going to comment that I think OP got it right with Philly going Demidov over Eiserman at 2. I think Demidov is a better stylistic fit than Eiserman, and giving Michkov a fellow countryman and teammate to 0lay with is a big added bonus</div></div>

Philly is already waiting a while for Michkov. The trend for Russian prospects is play a couple of seasons in the KHL before coming to North America to play. Since the KHL doesn't doesn't put a cap on rookie contracts. When Putin invaded the Ukraine the NHL and KHL cut ties so they no longer have a transfer agreement. Will it still be an issue by the 2024 draft I have no idea.
Forum: Mock-DraftSep. 3, 2023 at 11:30 a.m.
Thread: Offensive Development Model (NHLe)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capsleafs447</b></div><div>I'm glad you enjoyed it!!

There's actually an interesting reason for this. Since their NHLe from this past season is being compared to their draft year season, the worse their NHLe was during their draft year season, the lower the bar is for them to succeed in this model. Take Jackson Edward as an example. He tallied 6 points in 61 OHL games during his draft year, so while he nearly quadrupled his point total, he still only tallied 31 points in 84 OHL games this season. Since 7th rounders are more flyers than established prospects, it makes perfect sense that there would be more breakouts in the 7th round than in the rest of the draft.

A couple of the 7th rounders have alternative reasons for their growth. Kaleb Lawrence missed the majority of his draft year season and the entirety of the 2020-21 season, so to calculate his total, I had to go THREE years back to 2019-20. It makes sense that he would explode from where he was as a 16 year old.

Another 7th round breakout, Brennan Ali, was a high schooler in his draft year season, and high school students have a very low NHLe conversion and it's almost always that they have lower totals than they would in other leagues. Sam Rinzel is another example of this, as he played in high school during his draft year and his "well above average" status says more about his prior season than his play this season.</div></div>

my favorite gotta be Michael Fischer, poor guy!
Forum: Mock-DraftFeb. 20, 2023 at 6:41 a.m.
Thread: 2022 Adjusted NHLe (long description so ignore if you don't want to read)
That has been extremely deep investigation. I would never expect something like this from a Leafs fan ;) The model is useful, but in my opinion beside forward/D-man separation it also lacks component for player's size. The model is useful, but not ultimately perfect (not that there can be ultimate model, teams would sell their families for that).

I'll put a short comment for some (possibly) unexpected names on your list:

Hutson... the offense is undisputible, but will he be able to match the 6ft4 opponents in the NHL? I don't see a huge surprise him being taken that late. When it comes to risk management, he is ultimate boom-or-bust. In general teams also can't have more than 1 small D-man in the lineup and be succesful. Colorado's 2022 roster might be exception to that and they on average still weren't really small (average in the playoffs 6ft1 and 220lbs or so, with the next men in the lineup being Curtis MacDermid). All the other past 10 or so champions were all made of brick wall on the back end, with an average of roughly 6ft3 and 225lbs. Teams might be wise to spend their middle and lower-rounds picks on tough, low-scoring 6ft3, 200 lbs defenders (especially rare big RHDs).
Some Hutson-like overage calibers for 2023 Draft: Sam Court, Maxim Fedotov, Bogdan Konyushkov. All are overagers and therefore somewhat "tested".

Grebenkin... your model might be very useful when searching for overage forwards. Like it or not, for a forwards is their production the most important criteria. If a overage forward is 6ft2 and he scores in KHL/VHL/SHL/NCAA, he has bottom-6 pottential for NHL. The teams might be smart with their high and middle-rounds picks NOT to Draft KHLers/MHLers in their 1st year of eligibility, but do draft them a year later with their 4th-6th round picks. In my opinion that's better risk-management.
Some of the interesting names of similar caliber for 2023 Draft: German Tochilkin, Vadim Moroz, Ruslan Gimbatov... However, there are some exceptions. For example, Tigran Yarulin has decent KHL numbers, but it is painful to watch him in the MHL. He plays on the bottom-6 on a average team, looks disinterested and sucks big time. Therefore, if a player plays 3 leagues and he is good in only 1 of them, it might be an exception to the model. If a player is good in 2 of the 3 leagues, he is legit. Similar might be said for SHL/Allsvenskan/SWE U-20 players.

Bystedt... yes, if over 6ft3 and heavy player is 1PPG in CHL/USHL/SWE U-20, he is worth late 1st/early 2nd round pick. Size matters and this players might also be candidates for center-spot job in the NHL. If that kind of player can serve in the NHL as full-time 3C, occasional 2C Adam Lowry-type, that's a win.
Similar, less known calibers for 2023 Draft: Anton Wahlberg, Danny Nelson, David Edstrom, Jaden Lipinski, Dylan Roobroeck, Sutter Muzzatti, Gleb Veremyev...

Buchelnikov... model predicts he is future potential top-liner in the NHL. But I wouldn't spend more than 5th round pick on him. Here is a game from the 2022 MHL playoffs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-1l54WE5KQ . At 1:16:40 is his season-ending injury (btw, it might be part of a reason why Blues have selected lesser-known Nikita Yevseyev) and then at 2:03:12 he was off the surface with ice bag on his leg. And that was it for his season, quarter-finale or so of the MHL, despite it really wasn't that bad and he was able to walk and doing basically everything off the ice. I definitely wouldn't risk high or middle-rounds pick for that kind of player, especially in their 1st year of Draft eligibility. But tested overagers, I might risk 5th or 6th round pick on that caliber. Candidate for 2023 Draft: KHL-tested Alexander Suvorov.

Engstrom... I have never really understood all the hype around Calle Odelius, while the playoff-production and regular season +/- have indicated that Adam Engstrom was the best D-man on Djurgardens U-20 team. And Engstrom is taller than Odelius. Odelius' regular season numbers were clearly positively impacted by the incredibly strong Djurgardens line (Ohgren, Ostlund, Lekkerimaki). In the playoffs Engstrom was able to raise his performance to the same level as forwards, while Odelius' numbers have droped significantly. Now Engstrom is on the new team and he migh have another „Odelius“ on his team: Tom Willander. Scouts are high on Willander, but he is not dominant neither in the U-20, SHL or in the internationals. So, if 6ft1 or smaller D-man is not the best D-man on his junior team, I generally wouldn't risk any Draft pick on him. For example, Willander is on my DND list.
Example of overlooked Engstrom-type D-man: Justin Kipkie. I don't think he is on anyone's radar. He plays on a bad Victoria team and is on par with Kalem Parker for being 1st-2nd D-man on the team. But Kipkie is much younger, taller and his relative +/- is much better (Parker's absolute +/- is 2nd worst in the WHL). It's just that Kipkie is LHD, while Parker is RHD. That's the only reason I can find why Parker is on NHL's list and Kipkie is not. For comparison, Kipkie should be worth at least 5th round pick and Parker shouldn't.

Nyman... that's an easy one. Nyman came from the same Mestis club as Roby Jarventie. They both were very young on their respective Draft day, they share similar size and their absolute production was basically identical. However, Nyman was a bit bigger and his relative production in the Draft season was even better (Jarventie was 5th scorer on his team, Nyman was 1st). Therefore it was an easy decision to me, Nyman was worth late 1st/early 2nd round pick.
It's harder to find comparable pair to Jarventie-Nyman. Maybe Devin Kaplan-Danny Nelson. Same team, a year appart, similar size, comparable relative and absolute production. But Nelson projects to be even bigger and is younger on his respective team. Therefore Nelson is worth 2nd round pick to me (potential big NHL centers are expensive).

Maggio... his case study is complicated. In his 1st year of Draft eligibility (2020/21) he was teammate with Logan Mailloux on HockeyEttan team. Their production was not far appart (Mailloux' was better), but we really can't compare 6ft3 RD and 5ft10 RW. If not for infamous incident, every team would have Mailloux in their lineup far in front of Maggio. Year or two in the advance, Mailloux is roughly 1PPG player in the OHL and Maggio is much more than that. But who will be able to play in the NHL better? 100% are cards on Mailloux. Sucessfull junior 5ft10 RWs are common, but they rarely make it to the NHL. Maggio is in his D+2 year and he is OHL's leading scorer. In his D+1 year he was good, but for the most part just supporting player for Wyatt Johnston and way below 1PPG player in the playoffs. No wonder he was just 5th round pick. Similar might be said for Matthew Savoie and Conor Geekie, who in the 2022 playoffs were badly outperformed by their teammates (including a year younger Zach Benson). The difference is just the NHL GMs were blindfolded and wanted to believe Savoie and Geekie are the driving force on the team. So I would say Maggio is team's (and league's) leading scorer, but the numbers are showing us better player then reality is.
Islanders are buyers at the TDL. When keep emptying their already small prospect pool they might sell Maggio high. I wouldn't bank on him being NHL star one day, but on the other hand at the moment NYI might sell him as 2nd round pick equivalent.
Similar high-caliber comparison is Gabriel Perreault (as last season Isaac Howard) – team's leading scorer, but the numbers might be lying to us. You might say Dragicevic is another one, but that's also obvious. Less obvious are Koehn Zimmer and Reidly Heidt (beside Chase Wheatcroft and Hudson Thornton) and maybe some Swedes. Otto Steinberg and Theo Lindstein are excellent in the internationals, but on their respective teams (U-20 and SHL) are they for the most part just average players.
Same can be said for Eduard Sale, he is very good against junior opponents and in the internationals, but struggles against adult opponents. His production in CZE-1 is just comparable to Kulich's one and worse than Jiricek's. Similar numbers were scored by Mysak in 2020. On U-20 internationals is Sale not dominant player and that's a red flag for him being extremely high Draft pick. I wouldn't touch him in the top 15, but somebody other probably will.
It,'s early to say, but direct comparison in the lower rounds to Matt Maggio is possibly Nick Lardis. In better club he is scoring like a machine. But a team spending for say 2nd or early 3rd round pick on him, they might regret that later.
Forum: Mock-DraftFeb. 20, 2023 at 10:18 a.m.
Thread: 2022 Adjusted NHLe (long description so ignore if you don't want to read)
This is great - I love this.

Sorry ahead of time for the long post, but I would raise a couple items about how you are treating NCAA players (and AHL).

First, looking at this quote:
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capsleafs447</b></div><div>Furthermore, a player in the NCAA who scores 50 points in 25 games might look like they're producing significantly more than the Czech League player mentioned above, but they actually produced less according to this model at an NHLe equivalent to 32p per 82g. </div></div>

Generally, I have seen NCAA get an NHLe multiplier of around 0.2 to 0.4 depending on what source you use. Some have broken it further by conference as we all know, some are more defensive, others more offensive. So take the mid-point of that, which is 3.0. A player with 50 pts in 25 games would be 2 ppg season. Over 82 NCAA games, if they played that many, that would mean 164 points. Multiply 164 by 0.3 and you'd get NHLe of 49.2. You would have to take the lowest figure (0.2), to result in NHLe of 32.8.

Since you are getting such a high number for Czech league, I am guessing you are using Patrick Bacon's data? I will simply suggest you look at league adjustment figures from various sources, plug 'em into the model, and see how they change.

Or if you really want simple, use <a href="https://nhlecalculator.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-nhle-calculator-updated-24052017.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Christian Roatis's NHLe Calculator</a>. Just plugged first three in....

Hutson: 42
Cooley: 39
Snuggerud: 37


Second, there are no such things as "overagers" in NCAA. If you want to adjust by age, that would be a useful and justifiable input in your model. But it needs to work both ways. If D+1 players still playing juniors are dinged, than D+1 players who are playing pro hockey or NCAA should see their numbers *go up* with age adjustments.

But you would league means first. Some examples:

WHL: 18.1
USHL: 18.3
NCAA: 22.0
AHL: 25.2

If you are going to penalize a 19-year old playing in WHL (x0.75) because they are a year older than the average, then a similar number should be applied to players playing in older leagues. a 20-year Freshman in NCAA is still two years below league average. An 18-year-old in AHL is 7 years younger.

Average ppg by class

FR: 0.35
SO: 0.38
JR: 0.40
SR: 0.42

A little match can get you adjustments by class...

FR: x1.114
SO: x1.032
JR: x0.964
SR: x0.929

So adjusting the previous three players would get

Hutson: 47
Cooley: 43
Snuggerud: 41


Love what you have put in here. @ me if you make updates.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 15, 2023 at 2:28 p.m.
Thread: Tweaks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capsleafs447</b></div><div>I thought that pick was protected. If it's unprotected and a high 1st, that trade is bad for the Habs. My bad, I didn't read closely enough.

Nylander for Dach+protected 1st straight up is fair. But throwing in Liljegren and Brodie makes the trade bad for the Leafs, and throwing in more aging defenders (Petry, Savard) with high cap hits just makes the trade worse.</div></div>

Personally i think this trade make absolutely no sense since Toronto are cup contender. If they trade Nylander they will acquire a player that will help them right away. It just doesn’t make sense for the Leafs and for the Habs who are in a rebuilding phase. They aren’t trading away young players and high pick to acquire a 27 years old winger.

I don’t think Nylander will be moved this season. Toronto will hold on to him and if they don’t agree on extension before the draft then they could explore trading is right to gain at least some draft pick.