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cbalzer28

Casey B
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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 5, 2020 at 2:54 p.m.
Thread: Rangers Interlude of 2020-2021 Hertl Hanifin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>papishark</b></div><div>So the sharks get a bottom six hopeful, two no name prospects and a a couple picks for our young number 1 center? Not likely my friend. Talk starts with either a top 10 pick or an elite prospect</div></div>

Isnt Couture 1C? and Hertl 2C? I agree NYR need to add more but 13th overall in this deep draft and Howden is a young bottom six center. The prospects do need to be better, Maybe Georgiev/Wall instead of Lindbolm or Robertson/Jones instead of Ragnarsson.

Bottom Line, the Sharks are going to need to start rebuilding ASAP with the money they have put into some older players. Do you hold onto Hertl who will be 30 and on another contract (if they re-sign him) the next time you are rebuilt and competitive again? or do you start flipping older players to contenders to jumpstart the rebuild? Rangers just went through this the last few years and it has worked so far.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 5, 2020 at 2:45 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13, 2020 at 5:27 p.m.
Thread: NYR 20-21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>Here’s the lack of foresight:

1) Presuming that 2 LHD’s with no NHL experience are going to be ready for top 4 mins by next year
2) Presuming that you're just going to let one of your best top 6 play drivers walk in a season so he can be replaced by ... 2 guys under 21. Neither of whom shown they can handle top 6 mins...one hasn't shown he can handle NHL mins.
3) It is weird to see you say that no team controlled options are available for middle 6 C's and then see Dylan Strome and Max Domi's name pop up everywhere.

After all, the cost to acquire either of them will be about half of what you're giving away if not less. And then consider the cap. Domi signed for 6 years will come in around 36 mil. Strome at 6 years around 28 mil. Hertl at 2 years + 4 year extension (which in practice would need to be about a 7 year extension that takes him until he's 35 and most likely a major cap burden) is over 50 mil. Now Hertl might be be better than Domi and Strome, no disagreement there. But you'd be crazy to choose the option of giving up significantly more assets, paying about on average 3mil more annually and being forced to sign a player well past his prime and into his breakdown years just for a marginally better player.</div></div>

To each his own I guess but I would much rather have Hertl than those other two. And I have a hard time agreeing that Strome is a play driver. Panarin Drives that line IMO. But your opinion is fine but I did my HW on this andpersonally think Hertl would be one of the best options at 2C and we really didnt give up much. Igor is our goalie and we still have our lottery draft pick. Then replaced Hajek with Pilut.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13, 2020 at 10:47 a.m.
Thread: NYR 20-21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>Just going to game plan this out for ya, since you might not have gone through the trouble.

Going into 21-22. You got some guys to resign.

Igor's looking at 5-6 mil on a long term deal. That puts you at 60 mil cap hit. Lindgren is going to cost you another 2-3 for a bridge, around 4 for a long term deal. That puts you at 62. Pilut the same thing. You're at 64. Buchnevich will cost around 6 mil to keep. Now you're at 70 mil. Chytil has to be resigned, Howden has to be resigned, Gauthier has to be resigned. Collectively that puts you around 76-80 mil if you bridge em all. Now you bring up Huska or Wall to be your backup. You're at 81. Let's say cap is restored back around 85-86 mil so you have 5 mil cap room. If you don't sign Buch, you have about 10 mil cap room.

Now you have to resign Mika, Hertl, Kaapo, Kravtsov, and Fox. Mika will probably cost around 10 mil to resign, Hertl probably 8-10 mil and Fox around 7-10 mil to sign long term. and you're screwed. Your only 2 ways to legitimately cut cap at that point are Kreider and Trouba and both of them have NMC's. Even if you choose to not sign Buch and bridge Fox, and bridge all of your RFA's next season, you don't have the cap to keep Mika and Hertl....</div></div>

By that point you will have a bunch of other young guys coming in that will take those guys spots...Robertson, Miller can go in and we can trade Lindgren or Pilut or both...Buch probably move on from so Kakko/Kravstov/whoever we draft in 2020 lottery will all be looking for bigger roles.

Noone is going to trade a top 6 Center with more than 2 or maybe 3 years of control and they can make the cap work. I would prioritize Hertl and Mika and then the rest they can trade or bridge.

Regardless its the same issue with Strome down the road and I would rather run into that issue with Hertl after 2 runs at the cup with this team. Plus Hertl is already making 6 mil so bumping him up to 8 or 9 is only 2-3mil AAV. Really not that much.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 12, 2020 at 8:38 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 12, 2020 at 8:34 p.m.
Thread: NYR 20-21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>1) Massive underpay for Strome.

2) Hertl 2 years of team control. Rangers aren't winning the cup next year. Why are you trading the future for a player gone in 2 years when you already have a top line C that's also a UFA in 2 years?

It's just poor foresight and asset mgmt here.</div></div>

First of all I dont think you are getting much more for Strome, the kid above you said the exact opposite as you...So that makes me think I am spot on.

Second, I will be resigning Hertl. After 2 years, who says I have to let him walk? The point of getting Hertl and trading Strome (who is a an RFA this year and a UFA after this next contract) is that Hertl is much better, and Strome is an RFA that is gonna demand money and years that he is not worth. Trade For Hertl and sell high on Strome and resign Hertl when we have the cap space after Lundy, B smith and Shattys buyout are off the books.

So my foresight and asset mgmt is just fine. Instead of holding onto Strome and pay him more than he's worth I will flip him now and get a better all around 2C
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2020 at 6:52 p.m.
Thread: NYR Dream Offseason - D Larkin requests trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>....he's an AHLer with 4th line upside....I'm not angry, but the way this site works is unfortunate - someone posts a trade which is massively undervalued then everyone else copies it and says "this is the value, according to Ranger fans" - and it's annoying.

Strome's value is significantly higher in the real world than on this website. Strome put up a 70 point pace. That's absurd. Sure he had Panarin. But guess what, most players don't put up 70 points with 2 ridiculous linemates. It's not easy to do. And Strome's other linemate was a 4th liner in Jesper Fast. Sam Reinhart hasn't done it with Eichel even when he also had Jeff Skinner. Sean Monahan has needed Johnny Gaudreau to do it. Nikolaj Ehlers hasn't done it and he's had Blake Wheeler opposite him for a couple years now. His brother wasn't able to produce in the NHL until he had Patrick Kane AND Alex Debrincat. lol

NHL GM's know this. And if Gorton actually wanted to put Strome on the market, there's no reason to think his value would be any less than his brothers.

That's kinda where you should put the value at. What you often see as Dylan Strome proposals are closer to actual Ryan Strome value in the real world and vice versa.</div></div>

Look as a Ranger fan, I really hope you're right but the underlining numbers from the analytics people I follow arent that impressed by Strome. I just don't wanna regret a bad contract because we had to pay him after a year of playing with one of the best NYRs weve seen in decades.

As for trade value, when I put up a trade and some people say its not enough and some say its too much, that usually means I'm pretty close. I tried doing Strome straight up for Shane Bowers of the Avalanche and people were flipping out saying the Avalanche would never do that. So I really dont know his worth. Its all over the place depending on who you ask.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2020 at 6:45 p.m.
Thread: NYR Dream Offseason - D Larkin requests trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Larkin is almost double the price and I'm not sure anyone would give Strome that much. Strome is a good player and was on pace for 70 points this season and in 2014-15 he had 50 points. In his other 6 seasons he has averaged about 25 points season. So Panarin has a lot todo with his success this season. That's why I think he will be closer to $5M than he would be too $6.1M.

But it's a moot point because like ON3M4N said Larkin is from Detroit, only 23 and he is the face of the franchise. The reason he doesn't have the C yet is because they want Yzerman to be the one to present it to him and when he does Larkin will become the 4th captain Detroit has had since 1986. He is as untouchable as you can get. When asked about what it is like to play for the team he grew up watching he replies "It's like a dream come true!" Domi has a similar style of play and I think he's on the market.</div></div>

Yea my point about the capspace was just that you can't have both of them...so if you can get Larkin, you do it and then trade Strome because they both cant fit under the cap.

But yea I said from the beginning I dont know if he actually wants to leave but I would understand if after 3 rough years and atleast 2-3 more rough years away from the playoffs if he gets frustrated and wanted out. They would also get a handful of good to great players depending on how they draft by trading him as well.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2020 at 6:40 p.m.
Thread: NYR Dream Offseason - D Larkin requests trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>I like how you round up for Zibby and not for Larkin lol

0.93-0.83 = 0.10
0.10 x 82 gp = 8.2

Being that its under .5 I rounded down (would have rounded up if it was. 5 or higher) and called it 8pts over 82 games. You need to learn to read because this is the 2nd or 3rd time you've misrepresented what I said to try and make an argument.

Enjoy thinking about your dream scenario where your fleecing the other team. Maybe you can send Strome to EDM for McDavid in your dreams too✌</div></div>

Yea because thats the same thing....But what do you think Larkin is worth if my trade is soooooo ridiculous? Apparently goalie of the future at age 24, a lottery pick in a loaded draft, another first and 2 prospects with NHL Experience is the same as trading strome for McDavid

and you round up when its .5 and higher thats math
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2020 at 4:36 p.m.
Thread: NYR Dream Offseason - D Larkin requests trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>I already gave the numbers 3yrs by point out the difference in P/GP over 82 games was a whopping 8pts lol.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>Regardless, I was just saying if Detroit wants to get a bunch of assets including a goalie of the future that they desperately need and Larkin doesnt wanna be on a bad team for another 3 years of his prime this trade could make a lot of sense....But I prefaced saying that I have no idea what Larkin wants and this was a dream scenario for NYR.</div>

Wonder why NYR didn't trade Mika then. I mean he wasted 3 years of his prime while the Rangers were re-building, no? Maybe its because rebuilding teams don't trade 23yr old center with 1st line upside. As fun as this has been, I'm out.</div></div>

uh 93 - 82.5 is not 8 but OK....and when the Rangers started the Rebuild they hadn't already had 3 awful seasons prior to it. When they started the rebuild, Zibanejad wasn't as proven as Larkin has been. MZ was a late bloomer and Larkin was in the NHL at 19 and scoring 45 points. It's apples to Oranges
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2020 at 4:27 p.m.
Thread: NYR Dream Offseason - D Larkin requests trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>So you're admitting that he's a 4th liner.... You are correct though. He is strong and physical and gritty. He doesn't really have skill, and his defense is largely a result of Boston's forechecking system.

And yeah he's 22, Tim Gettinger is 21, bigger, plays C. And outscored Frederic as a 21 year old handily lol.

I'm just so confused though. You're trading a player who just put on a 70 point pace for a 4th liner? What a horrendous use of resources.

You could just trade Strome for a 2nd a player with a legitimate top 6 ceiling and take the money you're saving and sign a number of players who can do what Frederic does MUCH BETTER.

Namely: Kyle Clifford, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Stefan Noesen, Markus Granlund.

I mean wtf are you doing here? Trying to trade a top 6 player for a 4th liner? That's insanity.</div></div>

lol why are you so angry its a fun exercise to see what the team could look like. and it was a 4th liner (with 3rd line upside) and a 2nd rd pick....but Legitimately, what do you think we can get for Strome? I really think you are valuing him way more than the league does. We didnt have the capspace to sign him in this scenario and upgraded 2C with Larkin so there was no need for him. Last time I did this, I flipped him for Shane Bowers of the Avalanche and was told there is no way we get him. Clearly there is a huge discrepency of what he is worth.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2020 at 4:23 p.m.
Thread: NYR Dream Offseason - D Larkin requests trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>I don't care what you're talking about lol. Your original post on this topic was...



To which I informed you no that is not what I said and right in my post i said 3yrs, but you wanted to look just a one year. If you want to look at 1yr of production that's fine, but to me it doesn't paint an accurate picture as players can have good and bad years. 3yrs of data at least will give you a better idea of what a player on average will produce at.</div></div>

Which is why I gave you numbers for both, but either way you look at it Zibanejad has been much better and after this year clearly had a way better year!

Regardless, I was just saying if Detroit wants to get a bunch of assets including a goalie of the future that they desperately need and Larkin doesnt wanna be on a bad team for another 3 years of his prime this trade could make a lot of sense....But I prefaced saying that I have no idea what Larkin wants and this was a dream scenario for NYR.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2020 at 4:05 p.m.
Thread: NYR Dream Offseason - D Larkin requests trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>lol he's (Ferderic) better than our 6th best and the worst prospect pool is laughable. The reason its ranked low (which idaf what Joe blow puts for a rank) is because they have so many of their young guys already on the NHL roster lol</div></div>

Most rankings Ive seen have him as the 5th or lower prospect for Boston...And thats how prospect pools are for everyone, once they play in the NHL for a decent stretch theyre not in the prospect pool.

Its not a slight against the Bruins, it's because they have been going for it for the last few years. That's what happens, you mortgage your prospects and picks for NHL players to win now.

Thats why the Rangers needed to do this rebuild after the 2012-2016 stretch of going for it.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2020 at 4:03 p.m.
Thread: NYR Dream Offseason - D Larkin requests trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>You have 1 Boston fan saying we're getting too much. lol.

I'd research the prospects before you start throwing them into deals, and don't pay much attention to draft position when we're 4 years removed from the draft.

Curious why you'd make a Strome trade with the Bruins. They have C's 3 lines deep, barely any cap room and one of the worst prospect pools in the entire league.

To give you an idea. Frederic would rank behind Tim Gettinger, who ranks behind Aaltonen, who ranks behind Henriksson, who ranks behind Pajuniemi, who ranks behind Barron, who ranks behind Andersson, who ranks behind Kravtsov.....And that's just the Forwards.</div></div>

You think He's worse than Tim Gettinger? Now who's not doing there homework....

I chose him because we want players that play a strong physical gritty and good defensive game with some skill for our 4th line... Thats Frederic. And I said earlier the Bruins need center depth since Kreci is getting old and hasnt been playing as well.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2020 at 2:39 p.m.
Thread: NYR Dream Offseason - D Larkin requests trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>Of Strome's 41 ES points, Panarin has factored into 54% of them. At all strengths it goes up slightly to 55% of Strome's production. A career sub-40pt center that all of the sudden blows up the same year he gets put with one of the top offensive threats in the league and people can't put two and two together lol.

Strome P/GP pre Panarin - 0.46
Strome P/GP with Panarin - 0.84

I mean if someone is dumb enough to cough up assets then that is great for the Rangers. The team acquiring will be mightily disappointed though when Strome goes back to being a sub-40pt center.</div></div>

Boston will need center depth with Krejci getting older and are built to win now, and is it really that much? Fredrick is a bottom six player maybe and I was deciding between a 2nd or 3rd rd pick so I guess make it a third. Didnt really matter for this.