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chezyldayoff

Chezyldayoff
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Mar. 1, 2016
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Winnipeg Jets
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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 13, 2017 at 12:27 p.m.
Thread: Off season trade with Philly
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>scarbrow21</b></div><div>I can't for the love of me understand why you've not only traded away Buff, but also included Lowry only to get Sanheim and a 1st and I LIKE Sanheim. RHD is the most valuable asset in the NHL so there's really no need to include Lowry who's got a lot of upside and is needed by the Jets. Also Trouba at 6M is a steal and likely won't sign long term here at that figure. Mason isn't getting traded either. He's a vet goalie who if you remove the 1st 3 games he played with the Jets where he and the team in front of him played like ****, is sitting around .925% and 2.0 GAA.
All the other signings look fairly reasonable though.</div></div>

Here is my reasoning (and a potential tweak to the deal)


1. I agree RD are super valuable and right now we have 4 of them. After this year we'll only have 2 solid NHL LD and Kulikov is only a 2 year band-aid. Adding a young legit top 4 LD would solidify the left side for the foreseeable future. If we move Buff we'd re-sign Myers.
<em>* In a perfect world I'd like to make the Buff for Sanheim swap in the off season of 2019. Sanheim will be finished his ELC at the same time as Provorov. Philly will have to pay Provorov a ton of $$ and then already have Ghost as well.....they need some help on the right side (although they may very well have addressed it by summer of 2019 - which is why I made this hypothetical deal this offseason. </em>

2. I agree this is selling a little low on Buff....but we will need access to his 7+ million in cap space before the end of his deal. We can't wait until the last year to sell as he may have started to show sign of decline by them. For teams to take his cap hit he'll have just finished a great year.

3. Lowry scares me....not because I don't like him but because he may price himself out of his role on the team. Once Roslo joins our club he'll likely turn that 3rd line into an offensive/faster line with some skilled wingers. That bumps Lowry down to the 4th line center - where he would be AMAZING. However, after playing 4 years full time with the Jets and scoring 15 goals in a season we'll have to pay him more than we can afford to pay a 4th line center. I fear that signing Lowry to a 2.5-3mill/yr deal will effect our ability to sign Laine, Connor, Morrissey, Trouba to the type and length of deals we desire. And I'd argue they are more important to our team. Also, Copp is somewhat redundant with Lowry....I'd feel very comfortable with Copp as our 4th line center.

4. Trouba - I know the narrative out there is that he wants a huge 7-8 million dollar deal. I love Trouba...but absolutely nothing about his play has shown he deserves anywhere near that money. If we are signing him to more than 6 mill a year we are paying him a added bonus to keep a guy here that doesn't want to be here. If we have to go to 6.25....then fine....but if we sign him to 7 mill we have to cross our fingers and hope he takes a massive leap in development.

5. Mason - are we prepared to lose Eric Comrie on waivers? As I understand the CBA he'll be fresh off his ELC next season and can not be re-assigned to the Moose. This move isn't because I don't like Mason but more because we will 100% lose Comrie and he is a legit prospect. Also, if you throw out Mason's first two games....the same size is like 3-4 games.....can't toss around stats like that.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 6, 2017 at 10:50 a.m.
Thread: Cap crunch moves for 2019-20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pavelisgoat</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>No team is going to trade a first rounder for one year of Myers, especially if they have to take on all his contract. Perrault might be the same to lesser extend. With Trouba's previous stance of not wanting to sign a long term contract, I can't see why he would do it now, as he now closer to UFA.</div></div>

Trouba may be inclined to sign long term now because of the team and future he sees around him, if this does not contribute to his decision making process then you may be right he will not</div></div>

I'm always so surprised how down people are on Tyler Myers....other than his injury issues he's played very well in a Jets uniform.
If he plays 70+ games this year I think a 1st is reasonable ....but if I'm wrong a they can only get a 2nd and a prospect that is fine too (Hamonic fetched a 1st and two 2nd round picks last off season) . What I wanted to share was that with Poolman in the picture we can afford to recoup some assets for Myers before we lose him for nothing.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 6, 2017 at 10:22 a.m.
Thread: Cap crunch moves for 2019-20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pavelisgoat</b></div><div>The way I see it, and I might be completely off base, but Trouba and Morrissey should definitely get paid more, while Laine should not get paid that much. Morrissey is worth 6X6 or at least 6X5.5. To keep Trouba around you are going to have to keep him happy, say 8 mil/yr. Laine on the other hand isn't even close to the most important player on this team, just because of his high draft status he does not deserve to make the most money. He shouldn't get paid more than Scheiffele but obviously because of how much of a bargain he is, he will. Laine should be a 7X7. That all pretty well washes out though.

Definitely if the Jets can keep Wheeler around at that price they do it. Otherwise I'm not sure what they will be forced to do. I still regret them giving Little that much term. I'm thinking maybe Connor at a smaller bridge deal like a 2X2.5 or something, then allowing them to expire Buff's contract and freeing up that cap. I agree that Myers and Perreault may have to get traded, which wouldn't be the worst in the world, shows the organizational depth they have. I'm thinking they keep Lowry around as a long term 3/4 C that will likely make less than that 2.5m/yr. I would also say they should keep Armia around and trade Petan instead, he could land an okay return and just really isn't well suited for the jets team in my opinion. The future looks bright in the peg.</div></div>

Thanks for the thorough reply....it's always interesting to hear what other Jets fan think about contracts. Here was some of my reasoning....

1. Morrissey has <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pavelisgoat</b></div><div>The way I see it, and I might be completely off base, but Trouba and Morrissey should definitely get paid more, while Laine should not get paid that much. Morrissey is worth 6X6 or at least 6X5.5. To keep Trouba around you are going to have to keep him happy, say 8 mil/yr. Laine on the other hand isn't even close to the most important player on this team, just because of his high draft status he does not deserve to make the most money. He shouldn't get paid more than Scheiffele but obviously because of how much of a bargain he is, he will. Laine should be a 7X7. That all pretty well washes out though.

Definitely if the Jets can keep Wheeler around at that price they do it. Otherwise I'm not sure what they will be forced to do. I still regret them giving Little that much term. I'm thinking maybe Connor at a smaller bridge deal like a 2X2.5 or something, then allowing them to expire Buff's contract and freeing up that cap. I agree that Myers and Perreault may have to get traded, which wouldn't be the worst in the world, shows the organizational depth they have. I'm thinking they keep Lowry around as a long term 3/4 C that will likely make less than that 2.5m/yr. I would also say they should keep Armia around and trade Petan instead, he could land an okay return and just really isn't well suited for the jets team in my opinion. The future looks bright in the peg.</div></div>

Thanks for your thoughtful (and not offensive) response....it's always interesting to hear other Jets fans cap and contract predictions. Here is my thought process....

1. Morrissey - I'm a huge Morrissey fan and in a perfect world I'd love to lock him up to 8 years so we have a long term stud on the Left side. However, because he was a late bloomer and only provided 2 years of NHL service on his ELC instead of 3) he'd be smart to take as short a deal as possible. I compare his production and overall cache with the group of Ristolainen, Lindholm, Seth Jones etc.....and see him a step below that class. Most of that group signed at 5-5.5 mill . Those deals were signed a few years ago so it is possible that other deals signed this summer will raise the bar before Chevy can lock him up..... You are very right that I may creep up over 5 to 5.5 mill if we go as long as 6 years. I highly doubt it reaches 6 mill......he'll only have 50-55 NHL pts to his credit and often counting stats drive $$ (i know it's dumb for D ....but seems to be the case) .

2. Trouba - The narrative is out there that Trouba wants 7-8 million a year....which is fine, he is entitled to "Want" that much, but nothing about his play in past 5 years suggested that he is a 7+ million dollar defensemen. He certainly hasn't regressed in his play...but he also hasn't' dominated at the level to deserve 7+ mill. The real factor is whether he truly wants to be here and this summer will likely answer that question for good. He has a legit young LD partner (Morrissey) and has been given the ice time and role he desired on the right side . The team is very good now, trending up in the next 2-3 years and should be a legit contender for as long as he signs for. If we have to go to 6.5 to get him to sign long term I can live with that....if it goes to or above 7 i think it's an overpay that will hurt us at the fringes down the road.

3. Laine - The fact that he isn't as important to our team as Scheifele doesn't change the fact that teams pay the highest premium for goals and star power. When his ELC is up the salary cap will likely be 80 million so he'll get a natural raise over previous comp's of the past. (Tarasenko scored 8, 21, 37 in his first 3 years and got a 8 year x 7.5 mill). Laine will likely have 110 goals in the NHL already as a 21 year old....he'll be 6'5 230lbs and just starting to "get it" in regards to how to play the true NHL game. If Chevy can get him signed for 8 years with a deal that has an 8 as the first digit I think we take it in my opinion.

4. Connor - I think we both see the Connor situation the same. Sign him to a shorter deal to keep the cap hit down. I think if it's a 2 year bridge we likely have to trade him as an RFA once the deal is up as we won't have much money to pay him on a long term deal....i'm not opposed to that. I thought if we sign him to a 4 year deal we can keep the AAV down and have him as part of our team while the window is widest open to win.


Anyways....I'm just rambling. But i love me some salary cap banter! Have a good one
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2017 at 10:19 a.m.
Thread: Little + Extensions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>chezyladayoff. How I know, and you don't show be the question. Apparently Trouba turned down by more money and more term and signed for basically the minimum on a two year deal. Why, to get to minimum amount of years to get to UFA status.</div></div>

You may be right (deep down i fear that) ....but there are plenty of other reason why Trouba may have turned down a long term extension last summer or this past summer

1. IIf he signed in summer of 2016 he would have to fall somewhere in the comparable to Jones, Lindholm, Reilley etc (5 mill - 5.5mill per)
2. This summer - Even though we all saw he was a legit #1 RD last year he still doesn't know exactly how minutes will be divided between Him, Buff and Myers.
3. IF he dominates this year as a #1 pairing RD he could likely command a much bigger deal (upwards of 7-7.5?? mill on a long term deal?)
4. His agent almost always uses a hold out as leverage in negotiations.

Again, I wouldn't be surprised if he signs another 1 yr deal and is then dealt before he becomes a UFA....but it is far too early to say that we "know" that is gonna happen. Also, this is capfriendly.....where we all make fantasy lineups ;)
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19, 2017 at 10:59 a.m.
Thread: Little + Extensions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>You have to know that Trouba will be going to arbitration for two years so be a UFA in the summer of 2020. Laine at 9m....maybe, but why? You say some of the other Jets RFAs don't have term for a long term, but actually Lane has the least tenure. He really might not have any leverage of such a deal. Does Hellbuyck take so little if he really a # 1?</div></div>

1. Interesting how you "know" exactly what's going to happen with Trouba.
2. Laine will have as much "unofficial" leverage as any Jet ever has....if he scores +120 goals during his 3 year ELC we will have to back the $$$ truck up and pay him. If we want 8 years I'm guessing it's gonna cost around 9 mill per. Of course I'm just guessing but 21 year old 30-40 goal scorers are so rare it's gonna be close to that.
3. I did forget to change the goalies in my roster....but Helley as a #1 won't make more than Mason is now, and COmrie as backup won't make more than Helley is now. 6-6.5 mill should allow us to pay both.