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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 8, 2018 at 1:38 p.m.
Thread: Canes fan?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Truebeliever</b></div><div>The warning light is in the stagnation. While people gushed about his ability in his draft year, the questions are starting to emerge. Can he pull it all together. Perhaps I've exaggerated the concerns about skating -- though that is almost entirely why he fell from #11 in the pre-season poll for his draft class (Max Jones was #4 to give you an example of how quickly things can change). Kids at 18 are projected into the NHL in the draft. Only the kids who stay on their trajectories end up making it.

HOCKEY NEWS FUTURE WATCH 2018 (not in the Top 100), #5 on Carolina): "Even when he has drafted, Gauthier was a beast, a muscled specimen of a hockey player with the physical development of someone several years older. That hasn’t changed. But the transition from major junior to the AHL hasn’t been an easy one, and he’s still learning the discipline, effort and focus needed on a night-in, night out basis as a pro. With his body, he has the long-term potential to be a game changing threat on the wing, but he’s got to get the rest of his game in shape first, on and off the ice. "

HOCKEY NEWS FUTURE WATCH 2017 (#25 in Top 100, #1 prospect for Carolina): "The Canes had their choice of hulking forwards when they drafted Gauthier, with 6-foot-5 Riley Tufte and Take Thompson still on the board. They liked Gauthier’s strength — his dad and grandfather both won Mr. Canada — as well as his speed and conditioning, which are outstanding. Gauthier’s challenge is converting his physical advantage into offensive production. When he does, as he did at times for Canada in the world juniors, he’s a force. But he still has plenty more to offer."

ISS Draft Book for 2016:
<strong>Skill: </strong>Big strong scoring winger with very good hands and offensive instincts.
<strong>Scouting Report:</strong>
Gauthier plays RW on one of the best lines in the QMJHL with Beauregard and Mandat. He has played a lot of hockey on some big stages this year; being selected for Team QMJHL in the Russian Series, Team Canada U20 Team, and the Top Prospect Game. Gauthier is a powerful skater; he has great strides and impressive acceleration. He has a ton of offensive upside with natural scoring abilities; size, skating, hands, shot, and offensive instincts, but will need to show more consistency in play away from the puck and in the use of his physical tools. When he does use his frame to his advantage; he doesn’t hit to hurt, he hits just hard enough to separate puck from carrier.
Dir. Of Scouting, D. MacInnis: “Big, strong, goal scoring winger with good speed who can really shoot. Defensively can get caught watching and not know where to be, easy to play against."
ISS Scout B. Johnson: “Has all the tools to be a power forward with heavy shots. Has to be more consistent in his game and find a way to get open when he is well check by opponent.”
ISS Scout C. Mooring: “Deadly from anywhere in the offensive zone with puck on his stick. Has the ability to dominate every shift but lack consistency. Had to look for him on some shifts.”
NHL Potential: Top 6 goal scoring winger.
Style compares to: Drew Stafford</div></div>

So the 20 year old, whose speed isn't been referenced in the slightest, has been standing still? Yes you did over exaggerate his speed which is why I fought you so hard on it. Consistency on the other hand is something I can absolutely get behind. Young players making the push from dominating in Junior to not being able to dominate against men usually have a hard time with having to push even harder than they ever did. It's virtually the knock on any youngster who doesn't make the NHL by 20 years old.

Take Nikita Scherbak for example. Dominated against boys but against men wasn't able to dangle his way through life anymore. Now? Considered one of the bigger risers of the past year:

<a href="https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/future-watch-2018-the-nhl-s-top-10-rising-prospects" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/future-watch-2018-the-nhl-s-top-10-rising-prospects</a>

But anyways, this is all irrelevant. Your knock on him was his speed. We've both researched that not to be the case. Second was whether or not he can be an impact player or not. I think there is still plenty of time for him to be one but I do agree he hasn't shown it yet. With that said, selling him short now is totally premature. Which then brings me to the real point. Would the Habs do this? Absolutely. Gauthier is a solid prospect, maybe not of the same ilk Kyrou and Zadina, etc but a decent prospect non the less. Its the 1st rounder that should seal the deal here.

Gauthier alone for Patches? No way. A single 1st rounder with out the possibility of it being a lottery pick? No i don't think so. But both together make that a lot more enticing. I too know the value in what Pacioretty is but at the same time we can't too ahead of ourselves. A non protected lottery 1st round pick and a former 1st rounder 2 years removed, whose big and strong and Quebecois to boot?

This is one of the few offers that I think is fair value for Pacioretty. If there is something better, by all means take that instead. I just don't think they'll get it. But we can circle back to what the Habs actually get for Pacioretty against this and compare which value was better when it happens.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 8, 2018 at 1:19 p.m.
Thread: Maximal Change (from the opposite side)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Truebeliever</b></div><div>It's trading future for present. It makes sense because the window for the Ducks to win another Cup with Getzlaf, Perry, Kessler and Cogliano is closing over the next 2-3 years. Pacioretty is 3 years younger than the first three and would fit under the cap on re-signing. Byron is 5 years younger and faster than most anyone on the Ducks, which was a clear deficiency last year. Reilly is better right now than Larsson, though Larsson's upside is higher. Comtois and Larsson are the only sure bets. Jones is lagging in the skating department and needs time (think Kerby Rychel) and Groulx is a typical 50/50 second-round prospect.</div></div>

The issue is, if Patches doesn't re-sign then the Ducks basically gave all that away for nothing. I would rather have Larsson, Jones, and Comtois then 1 year of Patches.

GMBM also said he would not trade the future away for a rental player. There was a reason why he didn't go out and grab any players at the TDL last season and hasn't made a big splash in FA. Larsson is 21. Reilly is 25. I hope Reilly is better than him. Still not trading away Larsson for that package and no extension on Patches.

Yes, Patches and Byron are younger but so are Steel, Terry, and Jones who could all make the jump to the NHL this year. Once again no need to trade the future away right now. Plus, if Kesler is out for the whole season you don't make this trade and you let the kids come up and play to gain experience.

Byron is no better than Cogliano. I would rather keep Cogs before trading for Byron. Larsson has a higher ceiling than Reilly. The trade then turns Patches for Jones and Comtois. On paper is an okay trade but you still need that extension from Patches before you pull the trigger
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 7, 2018 at 12:20 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 7, 2018 at 12:27 p.m.
Thread: Canes fan?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Truebeliever</b></div><div>Effectively, you're making this trade for a #1 pick because Gauthier lacks the skating ability to be an impact player in the NHL. That was why he fell and Dubois rose up the draft chart -- skating.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsRafiki</b></div><div>You're right. Gauthier is terrible. Get Fleury and/or Roy instead.</div></div>

Whoa whoa whoa lets damper those over exaggerations please. Gauthier may not be Pavel Bure but he has enough to speed to be a good player in the NHL. He probably has as just as good speed as Dubois does....



In fact this is from Curtis Joe of Elite Prospects:

Dubois - <em>A dexterous and driven competitor that has all the makings of a dynamic two-way winger. <strong>Not the most electric skater</strong>, but is shifty and plays to the extent of his physical capabilities; he knows his limits and plays within them, which facilitates a student-like approach to the growth of his game</em>

Mike Morreale of NHL.com

Gauthier - <em><strong>"He can skate</strong> and hit and finds ways to get open and shoot the puck," NHL Central Scouting's Troy Dumville said. "He has better playmaking skills then his eight assists indicate, and plays both ends of the ice.""</em>


So I don't know where this pseudo-analysis is coming from but Habs should love to get Gauthier back. My only quarrel is that he's another winger on a team full of them. I'd take him but I'd much rather a D or a C if we had the choice. Other than that, I'd take this offer hands down without a single moment hesitation.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 6, 2018 at 11:38 a.m.
Thread: Realistic semi-turnaround
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Truebeliever</b></div><div>Absolutely, but Alzner would still play for any NHL team ... ANY team ... it just wouldn't be top-4 minutes for many/most. Is he overpaid? Absolutely. If you offered him around the league at $2.75M, you'd have 30 other GMs asking to take him. He's solid, savvy and, by the end of last season, was not a liability. He had a bad start on a team that had a bad start. He had never played outside of Washington and he was slow to adapt to the Montreal system. Add to that Weber going down and a rotation of partners. In then second half of the season, he was actually a pretty solid player.</div></div>

Oh I wasn't saying he's a bad player, I agree with everything you said. It was more so to go against trading assets to just get rid of him in a time where salary isn't an issue for us at all. Eventually, we may need to relieve his cap hit but for now we kinda need him. Also, I felt like we tried to play him more than what he's cable of. We just need to play him to his strengths and abilities
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 3, 2018 at 4:12 p.m.
Thread: Patches stays with Montreal
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Truebeliever</b></div><div>Given the lousy offers out there, I am with you. I think Geoff Molson should simply tell MB to offer Max 4x$9.5M. It's an overpayment to be sure, but there's method in my madness: That is $38M (better than 5x$7M) and has him emerging at 34 and in a position to sign 1-2 more short contracts with contenders (a la Vanek). The Habs have all kinds of cap space, so they could easily trade him anytime by eating 50% of the contract, giving him a bargain cap hit of $4.75M. Habs could even give him a 10-team NTC.

McCarron is a waiver case, so unlike to fetch a 3rd anymore. If he's still with the Habs, there's a good chance Benn will finish the season in the minors and I doubt Byron plays well enough to earn a first pick. Same for Schlemko ... maybe a 5th. If Shaw is 100% healthy and playing big minutes for 30+ games, this trade might ... MIGHT ... be possible. Until then, Shaw is the Habs burden.</div></div>

Trade deadline is a time of the year where rational thinking gets a little lazy. That explains some of the over payment.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 1, 2018 at 4:24 p.m.
Thread: Trading Captains
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Truebeliever</b></div><div>Ideally, we'd each trade these players for fair value right now, but the other 29 GMs are a--holes ... smart a--holes, but a--holes. Dorion and Bergevin are getting offered garbage deals. Those garbage deals are likely only going to get worse as camp gets closer.

The Sens locker room can't start the season with Karlsson as the captain. The division over the fight with Hoffman (which most Ottawa players sided with Hoffman) remains a toxic cloud. Every GM knows Dorion will make a move before training camp.

While the pressure to move Pacioretty is only slightly less in Montreal, it's still palpable. He feels unloved and seems ready to leave. Habs need to get through the first 25 games. Period. A quick start to the season, coupled with Weber's return and an improved team in Laval, gives Montreal fans reason for hope -- and to keep buying season tickets. Perhaps Karlsson and Weber make magic together. More likely, minus the pressure of training camp looming, the Habs would be able to take their time and find a good trade for Karlsson.</div></div>

Hope is a dangerous thing in Montreal. The team is going exactly no where and has been on that course for the past several years. Bergevin thinks he can make this core a winner and its never going to happen. They need a rebuild in the worst way and trading for Karlsson isn't going to be the way to start it off. If Montreal even gets off to a slightly above 500 start they'll think they are contenders for a playoff spot and not sell everything they can at the deadline.