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dp6154

dp6154
Member Since
Jul. 10, 2019
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St. Louis Blues
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 1, 2020 at 8:30 p.m.
Thread: Bridge Deals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sarakas</b></div><div>Well kudos for putting in all the leg work. Now time to be ridiculed by the community. J/k

1.) I don't see the point in signing kovalchuk if he isn't going to be in the lineup. Not sure why he'd want to come here if he's not in an active lineup and it doesn't make sense for us to give up ice time for someone like kyrou to develop. But I like the idea of a Blues Kovalchuk Jersey so I'm on board. Especially if you can get jagr.

2.) I'd rather still move Allen while he's playing stellar and there's a need for a lot of teams in net. It gives more cushion in case of an offer sheet for Dunn.</div></div>

yeah, if Blues can convince De La Rose to sign a 700 k deal it would be better. I signed him to show a scratched player at 700K will fit under the cap.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2020 at 6:48 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2020 at 5:21 a.m.
Thread: Moving Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>Oh did I mention a flat cap where multiple teams were looking to shed salaries.....which makes a difference in leverage too. Guess I just assume people will calculate that into it--unlike your example.

Multiple people have said goalie market is flooded you're not going to get a decent return--but you won't give it up....okay fine.

Detroit passes and moves on.

Allen would be in a time share as the number 1B guy (or the backup) or did you not see any Wings games last year from Dec onward? Hint it was Jimmy Howard's performance doomed Detroit to the worst record in the NHL. Allen isn't the goalie he once was considered only a few years ago.

Jonathan Bernier
Stats: 46 games, 15-22-3 record, 2.95 GAA, .907 SVS, 1 shutout
Outlook: You can make a strong case for Bernier being the Wings’ MVP this season. He wasn’t overly great in October and November, bringing back visions of last season. But from December on, Bernier has given a Wings’ a chance to win every night he’s been in net. With one more year left on his contract (at $3 million), Bernier could become a trade chip at next season’s deadline</div></div>


1- No, you didn't mention it. Scroll up and see for yourself. But now that it has come up, erm, the cap stayed flat from 15-16 to 16-17. So my example does match up perfectly in this regard. You should probably know these sorts of things before gong off on such a tangent.

2- Funny how, despite all this blather, you somehow managed to totally avoid acknowledging my nearly perfect example. But since you've brought it up again (sigh), I'll keep it simple for you. 2 - 1 = 1. No matter how many times you try to pretend it doesn't. A goalie leaving a team opens a job, regardless of who fills it and how and where they come from. That's an exceedingly simple equation.

3- Yeah, I know. I've already said exactly that twice above. I'll say it a third time if that helps: Detroit is not paying a 2nd for Allen.

4- While it's hilarious how you pretend the Wings' failings were all due to Howard, I'll just move past that to laugh at your "Allen isn't the goalie he once was considered only a few years ago" remark. You're right, he's clearly better than he was a few years ago, even at his previous best. He's fixed his mechanics and moves around the crease so much more efficiently now. He's also regained his confidence. It's like looking at a whole new goalie (which you clearly haven't done in the last 18 months).

5- Wings MVP lol. Even if he was their best player (he definitely wasn't), that is certainly not a high bridge to cross. Giving the Wings a chance to win every night... magic. The guy's save pct. was well below league average, as was is his GSAxA. He had some good days down the stretch, to be sure, but let's not go crazy. His quality starts were almost always against MTL, OTT, CHI, BUFF, SJ. but somehow he's a trade chip, even in what you claim will be a heavily constricted trade market for goalies.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2020 at 1:03 a.m.
Thread: Moving Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>Show me a healthy return for a 30 year old backup goalie in the last few years as analytics has overtaken front offices--make sure it is in the year before an expansion draft where teams will be looking at moving players rather than lose them for nothing. Now show me the team looking to make the move was up against the cap and other teams fully knew they had no leverage in a trade and tell me what they got.</div></div>


Setting aside that parts of your framing of the situation are either off or exaggerated (eg, Allen would not be the back-up for DET), Elliott is close to the exact example you asked for, but with even more similarities - 31 yo, Blues rubbing up against the cap, one year on his deal, a year ahead of an expansion draft and coming off a season with comparable rate stats. He returned a 2nd (which became Kyrou) and a conditional 3rd.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2020 at 11:55 p.m.
Thread: Moving Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>Not true, because like in Washington<strong> a drafted guy</strong> (Ilya Samsonov) <strong>comes up and take the job.</strong> For the Rangers--Igor Shesterkin and the Isles--Ilya Sorokin.

Once top starters like say Rinne are now platoon guys with Juuse Saros. If Rinne gets traded does that open a starters job in Nashville--nope--will it even open up a goalie spot or will the team simply call up it's top goalie prospect (Connor Ingram) and let him be the backup?

So guys that will be there soon (which limits term and thus openings on current teams like Nashville above): Sabres (Ukko-pekka Luukkonen), Panthers (Spencer Knight), Stars (Jake Oettinger), Avs (Justus Annunen), Lightning (Hugo Alnefelt), Blue Jackets (Daniil Tarasov), Coyotes (Ivan Prosvetov), or Blues (Joel Hofer) . Then there are the undrafted NCAA free agents like John Lethemon.

There have been relatively few starting (or big named goalies) traded and the market has shrunk considerably:
28 year old Robin Lehner to Vegas for Malcolm Subban, d-man prospect Slava Demin, and a late 2nd
24 year old Robin Lehner for 1st round #21 pick in 2015
Petr Mrazek for a 3rd and 4th
Brooks Orpik’s contract and 26 yr old Philip Grubauer for a late 2nd
25 year old Martin Jones from Boston for a prospect and 2015 1st
34 yr old Mike Smith to Calgary for a 3rd
Eddie Lack for a 3rd and 7th.
Cam Talbot from NYR for three picks (Nos. 57, 79 and 184)
Roberto Luongo for prospect Jacob Markstrom
Ben Bishop as a year end rental for a 4th rounder
Ben Bishop from Ottawa to Tampa for a 4th rounder and 4th liner
23 year old Seymon Varlamov for a 1st and 2nd rounder in 2012

I think you get the idea of what a soon to be 30 year old goalie is worth.</div></div>


You certainly do not have a complete list of the goalie tradesover this time frame. Halak has been traded twice, Miller was traded, Andersen, Luongo, Elliott all got healthy returns, Hell, Nilsson has been traded five times in the last six years. Etc etc.

Oh, and Hofer is not close to the NHL (like many of those prospects you've listed). Husso is the one up next for the Blues.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2020 at 11:01 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2020 at 10:56 p.m.
Thread: Moving Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>Detroit declines. They'd rather use the 2nd round pick to acquire Alexandar Georgiev from the Rangers.

You do realize that there will be a flood of goalies on the free agent market with little buyers right? Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit and that's about it for starter's jobs.

Expected goalies on the market that will re-sign with teams or go to Cup contenders:
Braden Holtby (Washington), Robin Lehner (Vegas), Jacob Markstrom (Vancouver), Jaroslav Halak (Boston), Corey Crawford (Chicago) and Anton Khudobin (Dallas).

Career backups that the Wings could target for nothing:
Cam Talbot (Calgary), Thomas Greiss (Islanders) and Aaron Dell (San Jose).

Available in a trade:
Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry, Jake Allen, (Marc-Andre Fleury if Vegas chooses Lehner)

Might be available given they have 1 year left on a contract and might no longer fit the payroll:
Devan Dubnyk, Pekka Rinne

That's a large sellers list with few buyers...that means the market will drive down prices. Add in the fact that St. Louis is desperate to cut payroll to re-sign Pietrangelo and I doubt Allen goes for even a 3rd rounder.</div></div>

Where to start. . .

Current teams in the NHL that need a starting goaltender
Ottawa, Minnesota, Detroit, Calgary, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Edmonton (tandem with Koskinen), San Jose (arguably Jones may be bought out of a contract)

So if we exclude Edmonton and San Jose from the list that leaves 6 teams that are in need of a starting goaltender while still ignoring the teams that would get an immediate upgrade for Jake Allen.

A Pittsburgh goalie is going to cost Detroit arguably more then they are going to want to give up. Which would likely include a high first round draft pick.
You're list is 6 potential goalies when there are 6 teams at minimum who are in need of a starting goaltender. The second one goes off the board, it makes it that more costly for the next team. With Allen you get guaranteed cost. Allen outperformed the 6 goaltenders that are about to be FA's you mentioned and he's under 30 with a future. Most of those guys are 34 and have been declining in performance, plus they are most likely to re-sign with their current teams.
Not only does getting Allen make sense, but Detroit has the option to retain part of his salary and flip the trade to say Carolina in exchange for Mrazek or Reimer.

Lastly, St. Louis isn't desperate to move cap. They let Oshie, Backes, Shattenkirk, and may others walk with little to nothing in return. Armstrong isn't going to to sell the farm for Petro.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2020 at 10:31 p.m.
Thread: Moving Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>Detroit declines. They'd rather use the 2nd round pick to acquire Alexandar Georgiev from the Rangers.

You do realize that there will be a flood of goalies on the free agent market with little buyers right? Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit and that's about it for starter's jobs.

Expected goalies on the market that will re-sign with teams or go to Cup contenders:
Braden Holtby (Washington), Robin Lehner (Vegas), Jacob Markstrom (Vancouver), Jaroslav Halak (Boston), Corey Crawford (Chicago) and Anton Khudobin (Dallas).

Career backups that the Wings could target for nothing:
Cam Talbot (Calgary), Thomas Greiss (Islanders) and Aaron Dell (San Jose).

Available in a trade:
Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry, Jake Allen, (Marc-Andre Fleury if Vegas chooses Lehner)

Might be available given they have 1 year left on a contract and might no longer fit the payroll:
Devan Dubnyk, Pekka Rinne

That's a large sellers list with few buyers...that means the market will drive down prices. Add in the fact that St. Louis is desperate to cut payroll to re-sign Pietrangelo and I doubt Allen goes for even a 3rd rounder.</div></div>

Trading Fleury would bring VGK fans down on your throats real fast
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2020 at 10:28 p.m.
Thread: Moving Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>Detroit declines. They'd rather use the 2nd round pick to acquire Alexandar Georgiev from the Rangers.

You do realize that there will be a flood of goalies on the free agent market with little buyers right? Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit and that's about it for starter's jobs.

Expected goalies on the market that will re-sign with teams or go to Cup contenders:
Braden Holtby (Washington), Robin Lehner (Vegas), Jacob Markstrom (Vancouver), Jaroslav Halak (Boston), Corey Crawford (Chicago) and Anton Khudobin (Dallas).

Career backups that the Wings could target for nothing:
Cam Talbot (Calgary), Thomas Greiss (Islanders) and Aaron Dell (San Jose).

Available in a trade:
Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry, Jake Allen, (Marc-Andre Fleury if Vegas chooses Lehner)

Might be available given they have 1 year left on a contract and might no longer fit the payroll:
Devan Dubnyk, Pekka Rinne

That's a large sellers list with few buyers...that means the market will drive down prices. Add in the fact that St. Louis is desperate to cut payroll to re-sign Pietrangelo and I doubt Allen goes for even a 3rd rounder.</div></div>



I fully agree that Allen won't fetch a 2nd, but... you do realize that most every goalie you listed as going to the market is also a job opening, right?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2020 at 7:38 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2020 at 6:34 p.m.
Thread: If they have to trade Schwartz
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>Yeah Bozak provides a lot of value, zero arguments here, I would love to keep him and if he keeps it up I honestly hope he sticks around after this contract on one year deals (for less AAV, of course). I'm just saying if it's a choice between getting a third or fourth for Bozak (which moves Thomas to center full time) or dumping a first round pick to move Steen, you gotta move just move Bozak. We've got the center depth to weather his loss, and what we need to stay competitive are young players on their ELCs to take over as other guys get priced out in the coming year We do not want to be like Chicago, who hemorrhaged guys like Teravainen trying to move bad contracts, and it slammed their door shut quicker than it needed to.</div></div>


I don't expect we'll be able to keep Bozak, but it would be nice. Moving Steen will be harder (though I don't buy this common line that moving him should cost a 2020 1st - more like a second or a middling prospect), but It would take a lot less away from a championship-caliber roster.

I don;t know, man. I'm just trusting Army to handle it, and being grateful it's not my responsibility. :D
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2020 at 5:57 p.m.
Thread: If they have to trade Schwartz
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Bozak certainly provides more value to the team at this point. He does a lot to help us win, and replacing his faceoffs is going to be a stern task. If we could somehow hang on to Petro without losing Bozak's last year (or any other key performers), I'd be elated.</div></div>

Yeah Bozak provides a lot of value, zero arguments here, I would love to keep him and if he keeps it up I honestly hope he sticks around after this contract on one year deals (for less AAV, of course). I'm just saying if it's a choice between getting a third or fourth for Bozak (which moves Thomas to center full time) or dumping a first round pick to move Steen, you gotta move just move Bozak. We've got the center depth to weather his loss, and what we need to stay competitive are young players on their ELCs to take over as other guys get priced out in the coming year We do not want to be like Chicago, who hemorrhaged guys like Teravainen trying to move bad contracts, and it slammed their door shut quicker than it needed to.