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jamnjon
Member Since
Jan. 15, 2017
Favourite Team
San Jose Sharks
Forum Posts
335
Posts per Day
0.1
POSTS
THREADS
LIKES
ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
1 hour ago
Thread:
treliving BBQ
The league declines the Sharks trade since they have no retention slots available.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
8 hours ago
Thread:
Continue Development
Sharks probably decline at that price. Sturm's value to the Sharks, particularly with their lack of center depth, is probably at a minimum a 3rd but likely higher, and dumping Fabbri costs more than a 7th.
Other teams might value Sturm lower than that and by the TDL (or even after the draft) his value to the Sharks might go down, but he's the type of veteran they need in the locker room to teach the kids to give 100% every night even when they're 7 points behind second to last in the standings.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 7:00 p.m.
Thread:
My turn as Torontos President part 1- 2024 off season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>V123</b></div><div>Hey, if it’s not in the rulebook, it’s fair game. No rule against to my knowledge at least.</div></div>
My understanding is that the league blocked the Lightning from doing that awhile back with Vinny Lecavalier. While there might not be a rule specifically stating that, IIRC there is a catch-all rule that essentially gives the right to the league to claim something is against the rules even if it isn't explicitly stated.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Yesterday at 6:46 p.m.
Thread:
Bad Contract Swap
Sharks decline. Couture's bad contract has 3 seasons left vs 6 for Jones, there's a decent chance Couture ends up on Robidas Island, and Couture's cap hit is 1.5M less.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:26 a.m.
Thread:
Cant Prolong The Inevitable
I mentioned it elsewhere that had the Sharks trading for Marner. It doesn't make sense at all to give up significant assets for a one year rental on a guy who likely won't re-sign with you when you're in a rebuild. If GMMG gave up pick 14 and Musty, finished bottom 5ish in the league next year, and Marner walked then he would have earned being fired. The only way it would make sense is if the price to acquire him is less than the value you can get to flip him at the TDL, but that's unlikely to be the case.
Edit: Also, despite his friendship with Patty, I don't see any scenario where he waives his NMC to come to San Jose.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 12:50 a.m.
Thread:
Zettertank
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Ok, what’s the LEAST SIGNIFICANT of the SIGNIFICANT overpays?</div></div>
You trade to acquire Jack Hughes from LA, grab his brother Riley, trade for Cameron Hughes' rights from Seattle, trade for Quinn Hughes from Vancouver, and give us all six Hugheses. We might or might not re-sign some of them.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 1:50 a.m.
Thread:
Change In the House of the Sharks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FunMustBeAlways</b></div><div>Didn't realize Kotkaniemi's buyout was that cheap. Although the buyout would last like 2 million years lol. He would be the most expensive to dump of the three.</div></div>
Since he's only 23 it's only 1/3 instead of 2/3 of his non-bonus salary that needs to be played (and he has no bonuses). The value of his deal varies slightly hence the differences, but you're paying 1/3 of the contract over twice the time so each year it's roughly 1/6 of his deal. If he were 26+ it would be 2/3, but the real thing that makes contracts rough is bonus heavy deals since the bonuses are paid 100% regardless of buyout.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 1:22 a.m.
Thread:
Seven Events for Ideal Sharks Offseason Celebrini Yakemchuk Reinhart Pesce Roy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Would be fun team…that goaltending duo though.</div></div>
Blackwood was great this year - there was a case for him being player of the year for the team. I know he's been inconsistent in the past but if he keeps up his play from this year he could end up being pretty good.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Sat. at 12:42 a.m.
Thread:
Mock Draft simulation
From the Sharks side of things I don't agree with this mock. They need defense and there are good defensemen available that wouldn't be reaches for them at all of their picks other than 1. If they win the lottery and get Celebrini at 1 I don't see them going for Boisvert at 14 with guys like Yakemchuk and Jiricek available there as well as Stiga at 33 and Humphreys at 42 with guys like Elick, Badinka, Sahlin Wallenius, and Freij still available. In general you want to go BPA, but there's reasonable argument that the listed players are better than the selected ones AND they fit a need. If they lose the lottery and end up with Levshunov or something they are more likely open to other positions, I just don't see them using 4 picks in the top 42 in a defense-heavy draft and not selecting a single defenseman.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Sat. at 12:29 a.m.
Thread:
Ideal draft for MTL
Seems like there was a bug in the lottery function for this draft. If a team below 11th wins the first lottery the Sharks don't make sense to be in the 2nd lottery. In this case you'd have teams 2-13 minus Philly figuring out if they're picking 3rd, Pittsburgh figuring out if they're picking 4th and deferring the traded pick to 2025, Detroit hoping to pick 5th, and St Louis hoping to pick 6th.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Fri. at 10:13 p.m.
Thread:
NJD 24-25
I don't think the Sharks take that deal. I think Sturm is worth more than moving up from 84 or 85 (depending if FV reaches the WCF) to 75, adding in a late 5th, and gambling on a guy who has been dealing with back issues for the last 4 years.
Now if the Sharks are targeting someone who is available at 75 and they don't think will be there at 84 or 85 it might change things, but otherwise I don't think it's worth it. That's especially true when giving up a center (a position where they're weak) and a guy who has taken on a leadership role and plays the style Grier wants (never giving up on a game even in the middle of a 10-game losing streak when you're trailing by 4-5 goals).
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Fri. at 8:01 p.m.
Thread:
Seattle Gains Cap Room
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Miraculous</b></div><div>Possibly a condition that one of the 2nds could become a 1st if Seattle reaches the WCF in 2025 or 2026.
Even without that, this trade isn't unreasonable.</div></div>
I don't feel like a condition requiring Seattle to reach the WCF in the next 2 years adds much value to a trade. We're talking about a team that finished sub-500 this year. I know they went on a run to game 7 of the 2nd round last year and anything can happen, but I feel like this season was a bit of regression to the mean and the likelihood that they reach the WCF is very slim.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Tue. at 10:21 p.m.
Thread:
1 more mock before new rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>If a team from 12-16 wins the first lottery, doesn’t that lock in San Jose to 1st overall?
I think the order would be…
1. San Jose
2. Ottawa
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
5. Anaheim
…no?</div></div>
You're correct (unless it was Ottawa wins 1st lottery and it was posted backwards).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 29 at 3:06 a.m.
Thread:
Wings
Sharks pass. Holl is a cap dump so he requires assets to get rid of. Sturm is a good 4C that has value.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Apr. 29 at 12:55 a.m.
Thread:
Surprise at number five
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>All of these stories have come from one group of people…same click of parents in California. Yet, on every other team he has played on, none of this seems to have happened.
</div></div>
The school he was kicked out of for urinating on someone's stuff was in Rochester, NY, and then the picture he posted was as a member of the Long Island Gulls, so not just the same clique of people in California. The other East Coast team (New Jersey Avalanche) he opted to leave after two weeks because travel was difficult between there and California due to pandemic restrictions.
I'll admit I haven't heard anything out of Tri City which is probably most important since it's the two most recent seasons and the last thing I heard about was when he was 16, but my team (Sharks) has been bitten by taking gambles on people with character issues in recent past (Kane and Merkley) so I want them staying far away from him.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Apr. 28 at 10:13 p.m.
Thread:
Surprise at number five
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>He is top-5 in talent…probably quite easily. Those rankings are hedging that he may slip due to a photo from when he was 15. Since then, he has done all the right things, and many respected people have vouched for him.</div></div>
If it were just a single incident when he was 15 it'd be one thing. He bullied several teammates, was accused of using racial slurs against an opponent (the league had a hearing for him and couldn't verify it had happened, but they never even notified the accuser or the accuser's coach of the hearing to give his side of things), was kicked off a team after a week for peeing on a teammate's stuff in response to being hazed, despite his skill he wasn't accepted back to the Jr Ducks, and then posted the picture you're talking about and was kicked off his team for it.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Apr. 28 at 5:26 p.m.
Thread:
Surprise at number five
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Z0ra</b></div><div>Connelly at 5th doesn't shock me at all. I have him #6 on my board.</div></div>
He's a player that, if my team picks him even with the final pick in the draft, I might consider picking a new team to cheer for.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Apr. 28 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread:
Who Says No Marner Waives NMC
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>glarson17</b></div><div>Sharks say no because 1 guy isn’t changing this organization over night. They had a good prospect pool right now but they still need to bolster it. Picks 14 and 33 will greatly help them bolster that pool. Bystedt is likely a middle six center, a big one, who fits what Grier wants. Granlund was almost a ppg this year, Ferraro is a middle pair D. Those losses will make this team much worse and set the franchise back even further.</div></div>
In addition to all of that, Marner will be a UFA after next season. If Grier gave all of that up for him and he walked at the end of the year Grier would deserve to be fired. It makes sense when you're gambling on a player for a cup run to have a partial season rental, but a one season rental for a rebuilding team just doesn't make sense unless there's a belief you can flip the player at the TDL for more than you spent.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 23 at 1:07 p.m.
Thread:
Sillinger Offersheet
I really think they should do this...how else is he going to surpass his dad's 12 teams if he's not moving to new teams this early in his career? Then again, he still has time...his dad was 23 (almost 24) before he moved on to his second team and Cole's a few weeks shy of 21.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Apr. 22 at 7:58 p.m.
Thread:
The otter goes to the water
Counteroffer: Sharks trade their 2050 7th round pick for Johnston, Stankoven, and all of the Stars' 1st round picks in perpetuity.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Apr. 22 at 6:36 a.m.
Thread:
End Of Season Mock
A lot of us Sharks fans are hoping that Quentin Musty can fill the Leonard role on a line with Smith.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Apr. 22 at 6:27 a.m.
Thread:
non-playoff team picks
I'm fairly sure the Sharks want nothing to do with Connelly.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 18 at 3:59 a.m.
Thread:
24-25 Sharks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>And I don’t think this is a smart move for the sharks either!</div></div>
Purely looking at value, pick 14 would be 5.1 GSVA, pick 13 (if the Wild grab at least a point in their game) would be 5.3 GSVA, pick 10 is 6.0 GSVA, and pick 42 is 2.0 GSVA. The third rounder will be 0.5 or 0.6 GSVA. The Sharks would be giving up 7.1 to 7.3 GSVA for 6.5 or 6.6 GSVA. I looked through 18 trades where teams traded up in the 1st round and the team moving up typically paid around 10-20% extra as a sweetener. If they weren't sending back the 3rd and we were trading pick 14 it'd be a 18.33% sweetener, with the 3rd and 0.5 it's 9.23%, 3rd and 0.6 it's 7.58%. Pick 13 without the 3rd is 20%, with the 3rd at 0.5 it's 12.31%, with the 3rd at 0.6 it's 10.61%.
I suspect if the trade were to happen we wouldn't be getting the 3rd back but it really depends on how willing to move NJD is and how much we want the pick. (For reference when the Sharks traded back a few years back it was a 31.58% sweetener).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 18 at 3:29 a.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sharcuda22</b></div><div>My trade is already an over pay -_- by 1.0 pts, but ill for sure add a third to the next one I am glad that suddenly first round pucks do get swapped and these examples are valid comparables though. I wonder where these were yesterday</div></div>
I thought it might be interesting to look through a bunch of draft day pick trades involving 1st round picks (18 total) and have the data based on the Athletic's pick value chart...most of the time the team trading up overpays by roughly 10-20%, though there was 1 example of a team (unfortunately the Sharks going for Goldobin) losing a tiny bit of value while trading back and some of them are closer to even, some are over 20%.
Looking through capfriendly entry draft trades involving at least 3 picks - 1 on one side, 2 on another, and at least 1 1st rounder), skipping any that include players since those are tougher to quantify (bold involves the Sharks):
40+51 for 27 = 2.1 + 1.5 for 3.2 = 0.4 sweetener to trade up or 12.5% of the pick value for the side with the better pick
<strong>27+34+45 for 11 = 3.2 + 2.5 + 1.8 for 5.7 = 1.8 sweetener or 31.58% (Bystedt)</strong>
90+22 for 20 = 0.6 + 3.7 for 4.0 = 0.3 sweetener or 7.5%
23+48+138 for 15 = 3.6+1.7+0.3 for 4.9 = 0.7 sweetener or 14.28%
24+80 for 22 = 3.5+0.7 for 3.7 = 0.5 sweetener or 13.51%
22+72 for 19 = 3.7+0.9 for 4.2 = 0.4 sweetener or 9.52%
14+45 for 11 = 5.1 +1.8 for 5.7 = 1.2 sweetener or 21.05%
Continuing to scroll back just looking at trades involving the Sharks or trades into the top 15
<strong>20+179 for 27 + 62 = 4.0 + 0.2 for 3.2+1.1, the Sharks actually lost 0.1 in value trading back (Goldobin)
20+58 for 18 = 4.0+1.2 for 4.3 = 0.9 sweetener or 20.93% (trade up for Mirco Mueller)</strong>
21+42 for 14 = 3.9 + 2.0 for 5.1 = 0.8 sweetener or 15.69%
19 + 59 for 15 = 4.2 + 1.2 for 4.9 = 0.5/10.2%
16+77+182 for 12 = 4.7 0.8 + 0.2 for 5.5 = 0.2/3.64%
9+40 for 7 = 6.3+2.1 for 7.1 = 1.3/18.31%
7+68 + 2nd rounder 1 year out (ended up 37, was expected to be fairly early) for 5 = 7.1 + 1.0 + future 2nd (37 is 2.3 but it could've been anywhere from 1.2 to 2.8 if you value the pick a year out as equal, expected at the higher value end) for 8.2, the 2nd was pretty much the sweetener.
future 3rd (1 year out, ended at 70) + 18 for 15 (EK65) = 4.3+future 3rd (0.6-1.1, ended at 0.9) for 4.9, about 0.3 of a sweetener.
17+28 for 12 which was then flipped for 13+future 3rd = 4.5+3.1 for 5.5 -> 5.3 + 0.8 next year
<strong>13+44 + future 3rd (+1yr 87) for 9 (Couture) = 5.3+1.9 + 0.6 for 6.3 = 23.81% give or take for future pick value</strong>
Edit: If you count and only see 17, note that the second to last one involves pick 12 being traded twice.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 18 at 3:15 a.m.
Thread:
Habababa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FunMustBeAlways</b></div><div>Stuff</div></div>
Your username makes me sad.
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