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mrright

MrRight
Member Since
Jan. 4, 2019
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Winnipeg Jets
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 19, 2019 at 3:11 p.m.
Thread: Laine to Carolina
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Is that because of the calibre of player he is or the calibre of linemates he's had in Winnipeg?</div></div>

Its absurd to think Laine doesn't have the potential to put up 50+ goals and 80-90 points for multiple seasons on any team in the NHL. Winnipeg would never trade him straight up for Pesce, no matter how highly you value a top pairing D man there are plenty of options around the league that would cost us way less then a 1 for 1 where we send Laine. Laine is truly one of the untouchables because he will be a generational goal scorer, he's 21, and no matter how good Pesce is, there is always a price on a top pairing D man other then a select few in this league.

That's not overvaluation, that's just the facts.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 15, 2019 at 3:02 p.m.
Thread: Continuing the influx of youth on d
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>arafay</b></div><div>Heinola is incredible. I haven’t seen that much skill in a jets defencemen ever. Like JoMo and niku are great, but heinola is on a different level. He is known as heiskanen lite by scouts. If he can improve his skating, he could be elit

Pionk should benefit from a defensively responsible partner as he can focus on what he does best, while slowly learning the other side of the game</div></div>

Yes I have heard that as well, not to mention as soon as we drafted him he instantly topped our board for prospects.

I know people may think that we have a huge hole on the defensive end but really its finally time for younger guys to step in and its not as bad as it may seem. Imagine what our D core will look like in 3 to 5 years, it could be very scary.

Just have to wait and see.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 15, 2019 at 2:14 p.m.
Thread: Continuing the influx of youth on d
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>arafay</b></div><div>?</div></div>

Apologies it didn't paste. I was agreeing with your comment.

I think Pionk could turn out to be a top 4 D for us as the Jets can properly develop players.

I also said how we were backed into a corner with trading Trouba. Usually the team who trades the better player to being with loses value in return, but when we know we cannot sign him and he only has limited teams he would be willing to sign with it puts us in a tough spot. That being said I think we made out alright with Pionk and Heinola.

It will be interesting to see but I think those two are going to be a big part of our future on D but I like the way both of them play thus far and believe with proper development they will be great players.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 15, 2019 at 11:16 a.m.
Thread: Do they accept
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jimmyjets</b></div><div>How are you justifying $9M for Laine on a bridge deal? What comps are you using?

Going back to 2008 (so in the last decade or so) the most lucrative bridge deals to players for their RFA years are:

- Galchenykuk - 2017 - 3 by $4.9 = 6.53% of cap and was his third contract
- Panarin - 2016 - 2 by $6 = 8.22% of cap
- Kucherov - 2016 - 3 by $4.766 = 6.53% of cap
- O'Reilly twice - 2 by $5 = 7.78% of cap and then 2 by $6 as a third contract for 8.7% of cap
- Jeff Carter - 2008 - 3 by $5 = 8.82% of cap

So the most lucrative bridge deal handed out in the last 11 years was at 8.82% of cap which would equal 3 by $7.19 AAV based on today's numbers. You're suggesting paying Laine almost $2M more per year than the most lucrative bridge contract signed over the last decade at 11% of cap. That percentage of cap is reserved for a contracts with term, regardless of what Dubas tries to say/do. GM's that hand out those kinds of deals don't have their jobs for long.

I think paying Connor close to what Wheeler gets is insane and would lock him up long term at 7 by $7.5. Then I bridge Laine at 3 by $7 as I'm not interested in making history by handing out the largest contract of its type in relevant history.

Then you have $2.1M to sign 3 more players and they would be Appleton (741K), Letestu (700K) and then Lipon (700K) that I would bounce up and down between pressbox duty with the Jets and down with the Moose while we're at home to save the $40K that I'd be over the cap. If I didn't want to pingpong Lipon I'd have Vesalainen in the minors and play a guy like Chibasov/Suess/Luoto on the 4th line instead and then I'd be under the cap.</div></div>

I applaud you on the in depth analysis, I don't have the time to be able to dig deep for information such as yours so its nice to be able to see some deep numbers. I don't think there is a real reason to call a 500k difference for Connor insane, maybe it puts us in a tight situation for a couple of seasons but we have some relief coming and I see him wanting more than that for longer term. In regards to Laine I get what you are saying, but even on a Bridge deal there is no way he takes any less than what Connor is getting. Maybe it isn't a 3 year? Who knows but I don't see him going south of 8.5, he knows he is a generational talent and has a lot to prove, but also knows that someone, somewhere would be willing to offer him way more than we can to snatch him up, even if it was only a bridge deal.

Sometimes you have to pay to keep big name guys around. Even if at the moment it looks like an over payment, you have to believe that teams are sniffing around the Jets right now just waiting for anything to go wrong. I get the whole number situation behind signing players to smart deals, but sometimes a gamble and a leap of faith is required to keep your young core together.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 15, 2019 at 9:52 a.m.
Thread: Do they accept
They do not accept, you are close with Laine but a more realistic scenario with numbers would be as follows;

Connor will be around the 8 million mark on a long term deal (6+ years). He has already expressed that he would like a long term deal.
Laine will most likely be closer to 9 for a bridge deal around 3 years. Laine will gamble on himself that we will find his form quickly and be able to maintain it so he can maximize his earnings in the next deal.

I don't think the Jets would gamble with signing Connor on a bridge deal just to save some cap and sign the other two players right now. That could come back to bite them if he is putting up around 90 to 100 points in 3 years, then the long term deal around 8 aav would look really good. We have some high priced assets who are coming off the books as they hit FA over the next couple of seasons so maybe we see some get moved in the coming months.

Doubt there are any home town discounts this time around for RFA's, we will probably need to make a trade to clear some cap.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 14, 2019 at 2:27 p.m.
Thread: For a laugh
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMTD</b></div><div>You are both good with getting 3 seconds for Ehlers? I am a Sabres fan, but that seems a bit low to me.</div></div>

I was more so focused on Marner, Laine and Connor that I forgot to comment on Ehlers, my apologies. It is certainly too low of a cost for Ehlers. Below are returns I believe Ehlers should bring if he was to be moved.

1: 1 for 1 it would be a winger of his caliber or a high quality D man from a team with a surplus.

2: Ehlers plus a mid to high table pick could land you a top pairing D man (depending on trade partner)

3: I do not see straight picks for Ehlers working at all as the draft, in a nut shell, is a gamble and for
6 million a year for a play making winger who can score more than 30 goals is a pretty good bargain for 6 more years and I think the Jets see him as too valuable
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2019 at 3:50 p.m.
Thread: Weirdest trade youll ever see
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Personally I am not sure Laine is as good as people thought he was going to be. He's big and has a terrific shot but he's a tad lazy and needs to become a pro because getting by on his gifts isn't going to be enough in the NHL.</div></div>
I hear that what you are saying but also think that is a very common and a rather easy opinion to hold because he had a down year. If you watch some games and watch his play you will see that it has become much more than just scoring goals, and to say 30 goals is a down year could be seen as a compliment.

Although his scoring may have dropped last season, he has become a better player overall and that will only serve him well throughout his development and career.

Watch out for him, he is going to come out hot in every aspect.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2019 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread: Unpopular opinions
I believe all those predictions are reasonable. My thoughts are as follows;

Most Likely:
Pionk performs better than current expectations
Laine comes back, somewhere within the 40 goal mark (hopefully 50+)
Hellebuyck Posts .920 plus

Somewhat likely:
Roslovic breaks out as 2C- I think he will make great strides and use this year to build his experience and skill set. I feel like 2020/2021 is his season to become the solidified #2.
Veslainen makes the team- I am leaning towards yes but the Jets also wanted him to get a good year in with the moose. Maybe we see a start with the Moose and finishes with the Jets.

Not Likely:
The contracts for Laine and Connor, they will probably look more like something below

Laine- 3 year 9 million aav
Connor- 7 year 8 million aav
Kulikov trade- A buyout seems more realistic, the cap hit would only be 1.44 aav over the next two seasons. Keep our prospects.

Good post, I like your view of what could be!
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2019 at 3:34 p.m.
Thread: Weirdest trade youll ever see
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I am not sure that Laine's game would work as well as you'd think with McDavid. He's obviously the best player in the world but he's also so fast, you need people that can be prepared to move with the flow he creates and I am not sure Laine would be a great match for that. Probably he'd still score a pile of goals but if he didn't have good chemistry with McDavid, there is literally no one else worthy of playing with besides RNH, so there is a chance he would struggle in Edmonton. But who knows.</div></div>

As you said he is faster than people think, he can move his feet when he chooses to do so. It is definitely a big unknown with regards to the certainty of the Chemistry between the two, but we can only imagine what could be if they played together and found it.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2019 at 3:32 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2019 at 2:48 p.m.
Thread: Weirdest trade youll ever see
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Honestly I have zero idea how that would turn out for either team.

1) Laine scores insane amounts of goals with McDavid while Draisaitl turns out to be a great centre on a line with actual good linemates not names McDavid.

2) Laine scores insane amounts of goals and Draisaitl still needs to play with an elite centre in Schiefele to put up a point a game pace and the added depth given to Edmonton all pan out. (Oilers Win trade)

3) Draisaitl forms instant chemistry with the 2nd line in Winnipeg and gives the gets the best 1-2 punch down centre in the west, Laine doesn't find chemistry with McDavid and ends up have a worse season than last year and the other guys coming over also don't impress (Jets win trade)

Any 3 of these scenarios could happen, it would be fun to watch it play out.</div></div>

I like your input, only comment I would say in regards for Laines chemistry is that as long as someone can put the puck on his stick and reduce some pressure on Laine from the opposition he will do what he does best. And there probably is not anyone better than that in the leauge the McDavid.

Very interesting trade as is highly unlikely.