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Shanesaw9

Habs 2010
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Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 1:36 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 11:19 a.m.
Thread: Draft 2024 We have a trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>It's not a financial or even on-ice-performance issue . . . it's a cap-displacement issue. The Kings don't have enough cap space to both add a winger to upgrade DuBois (for example, re-sign Viktor Arvidsson) AND upgrade and fill the goalie spots. That cap hit of $8.5 million makes it impossible to trade for Linus Ullmark (who should be on the market) or Juuse Saros (who might be, although I personally doubt it).

Why isn't Price's LTIR stay covered by insurance?</div></div>

It is insured, minor addition for MTL to get out of LTIR overages with all their ELC's.

I would suggest the trade I proposed makes it easier to accomplish the things you want.

1. Buyout Dubois = $1.3M cap hit next year, but a penalty over 14 years.

2. Trade Dubois at 1/3 retained = $2.833M cap hit next 7 years (same net total over the first 7 for option 1 but nothing more after 7 years).

3. Trade Dubois for Dvorak and buyout Anderson = $4.75M cap hit next year, but Anderson buyout is up after 7 years and net total is lower.

I don't think you can accomplish the things you want short term with option 3 as you only gain $3.75M.

Option 2 is a balance of both other options, you would gain $5.667M in cap space and that would be consistent over 7 seasons.

Option 1 gives you the most short terms savings, but is the least desirable long term.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 10:51 a.m.
Thread: Draft 2024 We have a trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>I would accept that offer as the Kings GM, but I don't think that Rob Blake is in a position to admit his mistake.


We would buy Anderson out immediately, and Dvorak has only one season left on his contract.</div></div>

Ok, if you buyout Anderson then perhaps it is a better alternative to keeping Dubois. Net cost over 6 years is $15.78M vs the buyout on Dubois which would be $19.8M over 7 years plus another $7.9M over the next 7 years.

However, MTL simply wouldn't do this as it's way too much risk long term for them and the short term gain (of dumping Dvorak) doesn't fit their window. I don't think anyone in the league would take Dubois at $8.5M × 7 right now.

An alternative I would propose would be Dubois (1/3 retained) for Price's LTIR contract. Net cost over 7 years for LA would be $19.8M but they'd be done after 7 years instead of 14 (buyout option). It's only $4M more over 7 years for LA vs this trade offer, but for MTL taking PLD at an AAV of $5.667M is much more reasonable.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 10:26 a.m.
Thread: Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I know when overage penalties are applied, I said the contract ends in 2 years and as we already determined a 1 mil overage penalty isn’t a hindrance for the 3rd most valuable franchise in the league. There is more than one way to look at LTIR contracts (as with everything else in the world) I choose to focus on the positives, you can focus on the negatives if you like but that is a dark way to live my friends</div></div>

Again, what positives? The only positive you've listed is you somehow believe if MTL makes the playoffs that Price is going to return when he hasn't played for 3 years now...

The other misinformed positive you listed was that it allows MTL to exceed the cap by $10.5M... let's do the math on that one... if you can exceed the cap by $10.5M and Price's cap hit is $10.5M, there's no benefit at all to that now is there?

You still refuse to acknowledge that a $1M bonus overage is a hindrance this year (even though it is a small hindrance). The fact that in 2025-26 MTL is facing up to $4.6M in bonus overages is lost on you, and then you literally said that it doesn't matter in 2 years because again you aren't keeping up to the fact that bonus overages penalties are applied the following season...

The funniest thing is you literally posted a Dubois trade a few days ago where you took Dubois at full cap hit! $8.5M × 7 and you traded actual assets for him in Newhook and a 2nd round pick.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/829111?post_id=4866409

Now a few days later I make a post getting Dubois for free at $5.667M × 7 years while dumping Price and getting out of LTIR and you're trying to argue MTL would rather keep Price. At this point you have to be trolling... if you haven't got it yet you never will.

Edit: Actually even on this post you claimed it would be better for MTL to trade Dvorak, Primeau, and a 2nd round pick than to trade Price's LTIR contract! The fact that you still haven't changed your stance when I've tried going through lengths to help you understand LTIR says it all. You're either lost or trolling.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 5:02 p.m.
Thread: Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I am not being obtuse, I am just saying that in Carey's own words he has always maintained that at some point he may be able to return in some capacity. Does that mean he will, no but it also doesn’t mean he won't try, especially if the team is in a position to make another serious run at a cup before his contract runs out or he officially retires (whichever comes first).

Also do you seriously think that a 1 mil cap overage penalty is that much of a hindrance to the thrid richest team in the league who made over 265 million in last season and has a net value of 2.3 billion? Thats like a $1.50 and a Slim Jim to them!</div></div>

Nothing to do with cost, everything to do with cap hit. In 1 or 2 years when this team might be competitive they will want to maximize there cap. Not be penalized for bonus overages.

Price is not playing again, arguing that is pointless
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 11:55 a.m.
Thread: Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>You are only looking at the negatives, how many cup champs over the past 5 years have been over the cap limit by way of LTIR contracts? 3 of the last 5 for sure, I just dont remember if the Avs or Blues were over or not.</div></div>

There are no positives, the purpose of LTIR is allow teams to temporarily exceed the cap (by adding the cap hit to salary cap) to give them injury relief.

A team that is in LTIR:
- Cannot accumulate any cap space over the course of the season (makes it harder to make trades at the deadline).
- Is penalized on next years cap due to bonus overages. Notice how MTL was penalized $1M this year. This will only get worse with as MTL adds more ELC's and they improve. The roster above has $4.6M in potential bonuses, if they still have Price that is $4.6M in potential cap penalties for 2025-26.

There is clear difference between someone like Price (who will never play again) being on LTIR compared to someone like Stone or Kucherov who is magically healthy for game 1 of the playoffs. That is how contenders are using it to their advantage, by activating them once the playoffs start. That isn't a factor with Price. The other way LTIR is used is to dump contracts... examples:

- TB trades Johnson for Seabrook to dump Johnson's cap hit and put Seabrook on LTIR.
- VGK trades Dadanov for Weber to dump Dadanov's cap hit and put Weber on LTIR.

It isn't advantageous for them to acquire Seabrook or Weber for LTIR, but it is a better alternative for them to dump Johnson and Dadanov. As they are contenders they will already be spending to the cap anyways so bonus and accumulating cap space are irrelevant, they would have the same penalties anyways.

There is no advantage to Price's contract whatsoever. It 100% hurts MTL and there is absolutely no benefit of it.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 11:36 a.m.
Thread: Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I dont think the Habs are interested in moving Price's contract, especially if they make a trade like this. If they make a play for PLD it is because they plan on making a playoff push next year or the year after and the ability to exceed the cap by 10.5 mil will make that much easier. I think if they do make a push for PLD it will require Dvorak going the other way for cap purposes and a few smaller peices like maybe Primeau + Harris + 2nd (IDK if retention would be added or not but even if its not at that price its not really an issue if PLD bounces back to his early Columbus form)</div></div>

Dude this is just wrong. Price's contract is a burden not a bonus. You need to research LTIR...
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 7:59 a.m.
Thread: Getting tougher to play against
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>LA is already out of the playoffs so they wont miss the buyout window or can no team file for a buyout while the playoffs are ongoing? If that is the case then that isn't right, teams should be allowed to file buyouts or move the buyout period to after the playoffs and prior to FA.</div></div>

Per Puckpedia, buyouts can't start until the later of June 15th or 48 hours after the cup final (which could go as late as June 24th this year). LA is able to buyout Dubois any time they want to after that, the only wrinkle is that Dubois' birthday is on June 24th and once he turns 26 years old the buyout is 2/3 instead of 1/3.

It has nothing to do with the buyout window, more about Dubois' birthday.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 7:14 a.m.
Thread: Getting tougher to play against
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Voice_Of_Thruth</b></div><div>At this point I wouldnt be surprised to see them buy him out tbh.

Surprisingly low and with the cap going up, the 1,130mil gets smaller every year</div></div>

It's low right now because he is younger than 26 years old, if he gets bought out it will only cost LA 1/3. This is there only chance to do this, he turns 26 this summer and then the cost will be 2/3. Interesting wrinkle that if the Stanley Cup Playoffs go the full distance it will force LA to miss the buyout window before he turns 26 on June 24th. I agree a buyout seems more likely than a trade at this point...

He was drafted by CBJ, it didn't work out for him there.
He was traded to WPG, it didn't work out there either.
He was traded to LA, and it's looking like a disaster.

He has disappointed everywhere he goes... maybe if he gets bought out he signs a cheaper deal, one that he could potentially live up to, but until then it's just way too much pressure for him in MTL.

Edit: If he did get bought out, a $5,619,048 × 7 yr contract would make him whole again. At that cap hit I think you could definitely take a chance on Dubois.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 2 at 5:33 p.m.
Thread: Getting tougher to play against
<a href="/users/Campabee" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Campabee</a> I really really do not like this. I agree with <a href="/users/jonh514" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@jonh514</a> , a lot can change in a year. You're paying full price for a huge risk, Newhook is more valuable than Dubois at this point.

I've looked at this option myself, and I think it's worth considering for the right price but I kept coming back to this one question:

Would I rather trade assets for Dubois @ $8.5M × 7 years or would I rather sign Monahan for 4 - 5 years @ $5M - $6M?

Even if Dubois bounces back, what does he bounce back to? He really hasnt been the elite players he's hyped as in 6 years... Josh Anderson scored 27 goals that year. It might have had more to do with Panarin than Dubois honestly. Monahan was arguably just as good of a Jet as Dubois ever was.