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sharcuda22
sharcuda22
Member Since
Apr. 18, 2022
Favourite Team
San Jose Sharks
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Seattle Kraken
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 4:15 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>No. Trying to trade 14 for 8 is not trying to trade 27 for 11. I know numbers are hard for you, but these are not remotely close lol.</div></div>
If you could read, you might understand, referencing one of multiple times I’ve made this point. The point is not that it is 8 for 14. It is that we should use the pens pick plus our second to move up somewhere in the range of where Zeev will fall. That has been projected to be 8-11 ish. I referenced a model that has recently been pretty accurate, and has one of the more prominent hock stats guys in Dom behind it (2021 Sharks Coyotes trade).
And im not sure that is making the point you want it too anyways. There is a bigger bridge to be gapped between 11-27 and a larger fall off in quality (generally) than from 8-14 (generally).
Are you trying to tell me that 8 and 11 are not remotely close? Or that the gap between 14 and 8 (6) is bigger than 11 and 27 (16). Or that the gap in quality of player between 14 and 8 is larger than 27 and 11?
11 for 27,34,45 is comparable to 8 for 14 and 33. You’re moving ten less spaces up so you take off one mid second essentially, you could even add the devils second for it but that would be an overpay.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 3:38 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>Sharks trade in 2021 is not remotely close to what you’re asking. Try again.</div></div>
You’re right trying to trade up into the range Zeev is projected to go (8-11) is not the same as *checks notes* trading for 11
*Edit cuz of that assist in the Natty he could go higher. Whew what a passs
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 3:27 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>“If it were to happen the value is about right.”
Yes, based on your pick value charts that have been proven inaccurate time and again.
Not based on actual trades, of which you can’t cite any evidence to suggest it’s even close to proper value.
Not sure how that continues to escape you.</div></div>
Sharks 2021 trade that I have already mentioned. Both uses the model of trading up or down in the first round using 2nd round pick(s) and is extremely closely aligned with the athletic’s draft pick value chart. 11 - > 27 and got two early seconds to move back 16 spots, and was with in .5-1 pts of the value chart. So, not a reach to say trading back 6 instead of 16 spots = 33rd pick. Not that i am even suggesting that would be the exact trade. Not surprised you missed that given how selective your reading is.
Not sure how that continues to escape you
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 3:23 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jamnjon</b></div><div>Surprised nobody else has commented on this, I really question the Weber trade. He's on IR and would be on LTIR if they needed the space since he's not playing again, and his actual salary is only 1M per year. Why are they paying an early 2nd and 3rd to get out of that?</div></div>
I have no idea! I saw it on someone who made a coyotes ACGM
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 2:42 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>You’re right, it is different. 16 years ago we got multiple pick swaps in the top 10. Today, we don’t get them at all. 😂
Do continue shoving your own foot down your throat.</div></div>
This is an ACGM, and this is theoretical proposal. This is not the NHL it is a made up website with a feature dedicated specifically to exploring things that may not and likely wont happen in the real world because, as armchair dm’s we have a very limited amount of information compared to the people making these decisions. I have never claimed this will happen or what the likelihood of such a trade is, only that if it were to happen the value is about right. I have also stated from the beginning this isn’t necessarily about moving 8-14 specifically, only that in this current time with these currently being the value of where the picks are currently at. We cant know how each teams value any given player in the draft which is ultimately what the movement of draft picks at the draft is about.
Additionally, just because something hasn’t happened in 16 years doesnt mean it wont happen again. I do not know why critical thinking makes you so salty, you are perhaps the silliest of geese
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 2:22 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>When this is your best rebuttal because that’s the gist of what you said, and you know it. 😂</div></div>
Uh no it wasnt. I said i dont care about what happened in the past. The NHL is completely different now from 16 years ago so it has no bearing on this topic of discussion. You interpreted “i dont really care about the past NHL trades” as i dont care what makes sense. So im still not sure what your point is -_-
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 2:20 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>buffbry</b></div><div>I wasn't arguing the cost to be clear i think its actually reasonable pending say a top 10 protected pick. Since he's from Michigan, I just don't see him waiver to a rebuilding team was all I was saying, wasn't being disrespectful at all</div></div>
Yeah! It was a good point, I didn’t take offense i think i just misinterpreted your wording my apologies!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 1:24 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>"I really don't care if it makes sense!"
:tearsofjoy</div></div>
When you put quotes you aren’t supposed to change the words u silly goose. You, in essence, have just quoted yourself since those are your words not mine.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 1:23 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>I think that would depend on how the draft went and which team likes which players. Speculating on that is so hard cause no one knows which players each team is targeting. If a team likes all the players between 8-14 fairly evenly then it could be an easy trade. If they feel like #8 is substantially better than what they get at around #14 then in my eyes that makes it much more difficult. I think it 100% depends on the first 7 picks, if someone they expected to go top 5 slips to 8, then how do you trade that pick? You just need 1 team to take what might be considered a reach, Arizona last year with Simashev and But is a perfect example. They liked those players so they took them even though most draft boards had them going slightly later in the draft.</div></div>
Yes exactly this is what im trying to communicate! There is so much context that influences all of this. All i did for this was look at where the value between the pens first and our second currently landed and did that. I didn’t expect to have to explain the value of statistical analysis + how to fill in its shortfalls. But this type of theoretical move is exactly what the ACGM should be used for IMO
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 1:21 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>It literally. Doesn't. Happen. :tearsofjoy
Last pick swap in the Top 10 was 16 years ago. NYI did it twice. The second was 7 for 9 and they picked up a 2nd out of it. To drop 2 spots.</div></div>
This is a theoretical ACGM, soooooo I dont really care about the past NHL trades. We all know how boring 31 NHL GM’s are, and the NHL would be a better product if more and bigger trades happened and smaller contracts were handed out. If we only posted things we were reasonably certain would happen then this particular feature wouldnt have much value.
Also this is missing a lot of context, but you seem to love to leave that out. 7 for 9+40, and 5 for 7+37+68. I also dont have context about how the draft was perceived at the time. Did the teams trading just realllllly like the players they wanted? Was there a clear top 5,8,10? Analytics have also improved considerably since 2008 and there is a bigger emphasis on development paths and patterns in today’s NHL front offices, but no clear indication how this has affected the perceived value of draft picks overtime.
So a second can move you up in the first round, and the sharks currently hold the most valuable second rounder in the draft. There is a top 1 and then IMO a clear 2-11 although the order is murky. So it will depend on who likes what guys and where ‘the murmurs’ say they’ll go. Depending on where the penguins pick lands and where Zeev might still be on the board they may not need to get to 8 or may have a more valuable pick than 14. This was just where about the current value of placement of picks ended up landing at this moment in time.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 1:00 p.m.
Thread:
Trouba and Norris
Oof i wouldnt want any part of Norris’ contract
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 12:58 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>I hate to tell you how trades work, but a 2nd doesn't get you from 14 to 8.
Read that a couple times and maybe it'll sink in.</div></div>
It definitely could if you had the right partner. Sharks 2nd is 33rd, which is comparable to a late first, unless you think there is a large talent difference between 32 and 33 in this years draft which I do not see. I agree that in general a second doesnt get you from 14 to 8-11 but 33rd or 34th could definitely do the trick.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 12:53 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>I wouldn't say quite yet. We need a few more prospects to actually make it first. We only have 2.5 of Yzerman's picks on the team, that is not enough. Edvinsson is the 0.5 cause hes still fresh on the team. Once we get guys like Danielson, Kasper, Wallinder and Cossa on the team, then we could look at being buyers. But until we know what we got, we should be patient still. Doesn't mean we can't try to improve the team but being "ultra aggressive" likely isn't the best approach.</div></div>
Makes sense! Hopefully edvinsson can give seider a bit of a break in terms of responsibility too, I think he’s so excellent. Is there any of those guys who might make the team next year?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 12:50 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>It doesn't check out value wise. You can keep telling yourself that 8 for 14 is the same as 11 for 27 though. :tearsofjoy
Little tip on your pick value charts. Several of the people who made those charts used to grade the high end picks in the 10s or even hundreds of value. They moved to decimal grading because when people figured out that the charts are terribly inaccurate, being off by 4.2 points sounds a hell of a lot better than being off by 42 points.</div></div>
I hate to tell about how statistics work, but models get better over time (generally). So, the readjusting of value doesnt mean the whole model is worthless, it just means if you have found a better way to account the variability of a given variable you should adjust, if you didn’t it would be unscientific.
Of course you cant use statistical modeling on its own to determine the value of these picks as it changes depending on organizational needs, and player preferences vs who is available which are difficult to account for. However as a basis for determining how often picks produce NHLers and standardizing that across years you can get an indication of a draft picks likelihood to produce an NHLer which is what the points system is telling you. I think the sharks yotes trade was with .5 of the values assigned with these tables. Finally how you apply these charts will also influence their ‘accuracy’. For example in last years draft there was a clear divide between the top 4 picks and the rest in terms of value, whereas this one is Celebrini then a group of 8ish players around the same tier followed be a group of 10-12 in the same ish tier. So this draft appears to be a draft where if you dont get your guy in a given tier, there isn’t necessarily a sharp decline in quality with every pick.
You also left off the value added with other pieces of the deals to suit your own argument which is fine. But 8 for 14+33 is very close to 11 for 27+34+41 or whatever the picks were.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 12:39 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>Calgary keeps the pick and depending on who's still available selects Tij Iginla, Carter Yakemchuk or Cayden Lindstrom.</div></div>
Trade doesn’t necessarily need to be with Calgary that was just where the value of picks added up
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 12:38 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>Detroit's GM won the first of his three Cups at 32. The last team he managed had a Captain winning his first Cup at 30.
Doubt Yzerman is worried about Larkin wasting away before the team is competitive...</div></div>
Idk if Yzerman has the injury record that Larkin has. But you want to capitalize on your best players years, and there are certainly many many players who are excellent past 31 but most athletes prime years 27-31. We’ll see
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 12:03 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>True. The Ottawa/New Jersey approach is working very well for Ottawa and New Jersey...</div></div>
I mean Jersey will likely be a playoff team again next year if they get bang average goal tending and will be a contender if they stay healthy next year and are in a VERY good place for the next 10 years. Ottawa is a different situation, but I think Detroit has a better composed squad. Ottawa and Jersey are very very different situations. I was just thinking Detroit would want to maximize Larkin’s peak years.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 12:00 p.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>Better yet, tell me the last time a team in the top 10 did a pick swap?
I'll save you the time on that one. It was 2008...</div></div>
Oh noooooooo its only happened once ill definitely be sure to include that in my made up future team lmao. Sharks also did 11 for like 27,34,42 so again value wise it all checks out. I do not know what Calgary’s pool looks like, so this only makes sense if they need quantity over high high end quality, which im not sure is the case. I dont think they have a top pairing D in their system anymore, but Calgary just happened to be in the spot where the value lined up for the picks, I didn’t pick them for any other reason.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 11:57 a.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Copp and Compher weren't this teams problems. Copp has been quite good actually defensively. He might put up more points if he got more than 34% of his starts in the offensive zone. We aren't trading him and definitely not attaching a 1st this year. I like the idea of adding Sturm as a 4th line centre but not in any deal like this. We are also going to need him to help mentor Danielson and Kasper in the future.</div></div>
This all makes sense, this was based loosely on an athletic article about squad compositions. I do think now is the time to start being ultra aggressive for the wings tho.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 11:56 a.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>buffbry</b></div><div>You know copp has a NTC and is from Detroit and loves it there, so only way we are getting rid of it is by buying him out</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoSeider53</b></div><div>:laugh Copp doesb't waive for the Sharks, And we sure as hell aren't giving up no 1st for Sturm who's value isn't worth anymore than a 3rd rounder.</div></div>
I agree with you on the value of Sturm for sure, the first is more about dumping Copp and covering the cost of Sturm. Copp has a MNTC not a no trade clause, that being said a bottom feed is prolly on his list as well as the Canadian teams. I think JGP from the islanders is another candidate.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 10:02 a.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>Pretty sure Danielson and Kasper will be our matchup centers. Thanks.
Apparently you don't know a plug when you see it.
Is it worse to not know the difference between "Their" or "There" or "They're"... Or to be ignorant enough to think a single 2nd round pick makes up the difference between picks 8 and 14? :tearsofjoy</div></div>
Look up any draft pick coefficient list. 8 is at 7.1 and 14 is 5.2 and 33 is 1.7. But keeeeeeeeep yappin
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 9:56 a.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazorSeider53</b></div><div>Yeah, Detroit ain't doing that lol.</div></div>
Enjoy more years of mediocrity with Compher and Copp as your matchup centers lol. I was thinking 1st + Copp = Sturm + Stephenson and you are making the playoffs next year instead of folding like a lawn chair like this year.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gmonwy</b></div><div>Calgary keeps there pick</div></div>
Their*. I just chose a team where the draft pick value added up.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 14 at 9:52 a.m.
Thread:
Clinched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gunmars</b></div><div>Flyers just gonna ride out Johansen contract. Doubt they pay anything substantial to move him.</div></div>
TBH he was just a guy i could think of off the top of my head that wasn’t gonna play where he is type deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 13 at 1:13 p.m.
Thread:
San Jose Sharks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Considering where those picks are, I'd have to agree with you. But if that was SJS's pick or picks, I would advise that you refrain from moving them. haha.</div></div>
Yeah exactly! IMO we cant move any of our own first rounders but the other ones there is an argument to be made to try and get a known quantity for them
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 13 at 12:50 p.m.
Thread:
San Jose Sharks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>glarson17</b></div><div>The sharks have no reason to move two 1sts plus for Keller</div></div>
Have you considered, Keller is one of my favorite players in the NHL. I dont think any of those picks would be as good or rad as him. Im all for a move like this if he requests a trade and by some miracle is okey with coming to San Jose.
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