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tad77

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Forum: NHLFeb. 7, 2018 at 10:14 a.m.
Thread: Trade Deadline Value Primer
Pacioretty: Montreal hasn't identified themselves as a rebuilding team (whether they should is a separate issue). Pacioretty still holds value for them. You aren't just paying to add him to your team, you are paying to take him away from their team.
If his value is the same as Kane this year, you don't trade him. You consider it in the offseason when teams are juggling their rosters and/or jockeying in the draft.
If you don't find the right deal then, you wait until next trade deadline and get the same price you wouldn't settle for the year previous. Perhaps even more, as players have a tendency to perform better in a contract year.
Bergevin also needs a clear win in any deal. Everyone knows it. There's no such thing as fair value in a Pacioretty trade. There's an overpayment or there's no trade. Suggesting he will only return a lower package, ignores a no trade scenario. Right now it's all or nothing for Pacioretty.

Prospects: top prospect, is a relative term. It varies by organization. Someone like Steel or Thomas, are top products at their position within their organizations, but are in reality only above average. Top prospects are either high picks (top dozen or so picks in a given draft year), or have shown a sufficient translation of next level ability or NHL readiness. Neither of these players qualify currently.

As for cheaper options, you get what you pay for. Grabner is not going to set up many goals and Green isn't going to reliably keep the puck out of your end. More complete players, that also provide a higher level of performance, demand a premium price for a reason.
Down by one goal, game 7, goalie pulled, 30 seconds on the clock, puck in your own end. Who do you want driving that last play? Green, or Karlsson?
It's better to be prepared to win the cup, than to find yourself in the finals and not have the horsepower to close it out.
Forum: NHLFeb. 6, 2018 at 11:27 p.m.
Thread: Trade Deadline Value Primer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tadhockey</b></div><div>I don't know what world you're living in, but Erik Karlsson is worth far more than a first round pick and a top prospect.

If you had to pick between Max Pacioretty and Erik Karlsson, your current situation ignored, you would pick Erik Karlsson 99 times out of 100. Erik Karlsson is simply a far better player. And he should be treated as such.

So then even if you treat him as a rental, he would become an <em>elite</em> rental, above that of Pacioretty or Kane. Therefore, he would fetch a FAR more valuable piece. That doesn't include whatever potential does exist in resigning him, which, while should be minimized if treated as a rental, should not be ignored, because even in a worst case scenario, it will be possible to flip Karlsson's FA rights for an asset.

Karlsson is easily worth at first rounder, a young player already in the NHL with top six/top four potential, a top two prospect not in the NHL (relative to the organization), and one or two more reasonably valuable assets (such as a conditional first round pick and a mid-tier prospect). While most GMs may not treat it as such, that's what the valuation should be.

Example trade:
Karlsson to Tampa for 2018 1st, 2019 conditional first, Vladislav Namestnitkov, Alexey Lipanov, Taylor Raddysh, Slater Koekkoek</div></div>

At least you didn't say Point, Sergachev, Raddysh and like 3 1sts for Karlsson