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Simpleton
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Jun. 9, 2017
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Edmonton Oilers
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 13, 2022 at 1:52 p.m.
Thread: Realistic
The Oilers have signed their top-6 forward, minute munching 2LD, and starting goaltender, a nice piece of work so far. Assuming Skinner is the de facto back-up behind Campbell, and both Mike Smith and Oscar Klefbom are placed on LTIR, Ken Holland has roughly $7.6M left to spend and he needs to sign 7 more players, including at least 2 of his RFAs in need of pay increases. Its not realistic for a GM to spend his way into a situation that leaves absolutely no wiggle room under the salary cap. The Oilers need to have a gap of at least $1M with which to spend, preferably more given that they will be reliant on LTIR in order to be compliant next season. At this point, Holland needs to move at least one of his existing contracts, likely Foegele or Barrie, or both. Holloway can probably provide everything Foegele did last year, and perhaps even more. Moving Barrie is a bit more challenging because Holland has to find a veteran to replace him with.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2022 at 12:01 a.m.
Thread: MTL 2023
Ken Holland suddenly has close to $16,000,000 in cap space. He's stated publicly that he has to find a goaltender. The day before making that statement, he said he believes his new goaltender will come from free agency. With Husso now in Detroit, expect Edmonton to take a hard run at Darcy Kuemper. Holland's primary competition may be Kyle Dubas, in which case Jack Campbell is option B for Holland. There are other teams that might be in the mix, but right now Toronto and Edmonton look like the only two legitimate contenders with sufficient cap space to make a long-term commitment. IMO, that sets them apart from a team like Washington. Holland may want to trade Puljujarvi, but it seems most likely he'll look for a top-4 dman to replace Duncan Keith, or a proven middle or top-six forward to replace JP.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2022 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread: Dubas pulls a Rabbit out of his Hat
Magic would be necessary to pull off that trade with the Oilers.

Foegele kind of faded in the playoffs, but his contract is not grossly out of line with what he provided for most of the year. Puljujarvi had to endure injuries and illness, and he too struggled in the payoffs. However, JP is still youngish, big and fast, and in every metric other than scoring he has proven to be a very good NHL forward. Unless they really need a tiny bit more cap space, or are offered a deal that improves their roster, Edmonton would be wise to hang onto Foegele, at least until Dylan Holloway has pushed him down the lineup. With Kassian traded away, Keith retired, and Smith and Klefbom headed to LTIR, the Oilers would be way better off tendering Puljujarvi a qualifying offer and negotiating a deal. I think JP would sign for $3,5000,000 for one season, maybe even a bit less.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2022 at 2:05 p.m.
Thread: Hen Kolland
As things stand at this moment, the Oilers have over $10,000,000 in cap space, and over $4,100,000 in additional cap space that will probably be available once Klefbom goes back on LTIR. Holland can spend 10% over the salary cap during the summer, as long as the Oilers are cap compliant when the regular season begins.

Edmonton needs a starting goaltender and, as of this morning, Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell are the two potential UFAs that might fit that need. Toronto has exclusive negotiating rights for Campbell until July 13, so Kuemper is really the only sure option at this point. Expect him to cost at least $6,000,000 over 6 seasons.

Holland would like to bring Evander Kane back, but his grievance will not be settled until some time past the opening few days of free agency. Edmonton has to address its need of a top-6 forward and can't really afford to sit idle when the top UFAs hit the market.

The rumor is that Puljujarvi wants to be a top 6 forward. If that rumor is accurate, a $2,000,000 qualifying probably won't be accepted. In that case, the Oilers have three options: (1) negotiate terms that are acceptable to both parties; (2) head to arbitration and hope for a favorable ruling; and (3) trade JP. I suspect Holland has been underwhelmed by offers he may have received for Puljujarvi. Unfortunately, its unlikely there will be more attractive offers as the summer progresses. There is risk to both parties, if this situation leads to arbitration. That process will require the Oilers to explain why the player is not worth the contract terms they seek, and they have to describe that rational in front of the player and his agent. Even worse, an arbitrator's ruling is binding, so if the process gets to that point the Oilers could be forced to pay Puljujarvi more then they want, and they won't be able to trade him until the next season concludes. Puljujarvi will need to play for a team that has made clear its position he is not worth his salary. take all of this into consideration and it seems the best outcome is to either negotiate a contract both parties can live with, or sell extremely low on Jesse Puljujarvi.

IMO, Holland should have qualifying offers for Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, and McLeod, and a solid contract offer for Brett Kulak ready to go, but Darcy Kuemper needs to be at the top of his list of priorities. The second item on his list of priorities should be 3 - 4 alternatives to Evander Kane. He needs to monitor Jack Campbell's situation, since he is the next best option to Kuemper, unless Semyond Varlamov has had a change of heart and Lou Lamoriello is willing to move him for a reasonable price. Finally, Holland should continue speaking with Evander Kane's agent, since the player might be forced to accept another short-term deal and a heavily discounted salary.

Of course, should Duncan Keith decide to retire, the scenario changes and become more favorable for Uncle Kenny.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2022 at 12:52 p.m.
Thread: After The Draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JBrger18</b></div><div>Tbh I would much rather sign Giroux and keep JP than EK and trading JP. If they trade JP they are only going to get the same player in return. I'm on the fence about him currently</div></div>

I understand that position, and wonder whether there are even better options than Giroux.

Holland might roll the dice on someone like Mason Marchment. He's a 27-year-old 6'4", 209 Lbs LW who is tough and willing to mix it up. Last season he managed 18 goals, 47 points, and a +29, as a middle six forward playing under a near league minimum contract for the Panthers. On paper, he looks like he might be a late bloomer who could explode playing with Edmonton's top guns. The eye test suggests he'd bring similar elements compared to Evander Kane, albeit with discernably less offensive potential.

Its also possible Kane might have to accept another discounted 1-year deal. Given the delays in resolution of his grievance. If the arbitrator finds in favor of the Sharks, he could be a high-value asset available in a market that has no money. In that case, he is likely going to seek a short term contract and try to cash in next summer. Edmonton was a great fit for him, and if nobody can afford to pay him the big dollars this year, it makes sense that he might be willing to do a full season, on the cheap, next to McDavid.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 7, 2022 at 1:42 p.m.
Thread: Let the kids play
I listened to the conversation Ken Holland had with media yesterday. IMO the Oilers plan to sign a UFA goaltender and have Skinner play backup, regardless of what decision Mike Smith makes. I also think Holland is preparing for arbitration with Puljujarvi and/or Yamamoto. He said it could take the full summer to resolve Puljujarvi's situation, and he also said he would prefer not to exercise a buyout but is prepared to do so. He made a few comments about the salary cap constraints that are impacting most, if not all, teams, so perhaps he is feeling pretty confident that there isn't much risk of losing any RFAs to an offer sheet.

With these thoughts in mind, its reasonable to assume Campbell will be one of Holland's top a UFA targets, but that Necas deal is almost certainly not going to happen; even if Don Waddell loses his mind.

I think its possible Lavoie makes his NHL debut at some point next season, but I feel it will likely be at mid-season, or later. Bourgault may get a bit of time too, but he won't stick with the team. His time will come later. The Soucy trade has been proposed numerous times, it makes sense to most Oiler fans but that doesn't mean it makes sense to more learned hockey minds. We'll see whether that one is even a consideration among those who make the decisions.