The purpose of this AGM is to test the cap feasibility of adding Connor for Byram. A real-life trade might include picks or other add-ons as well, but for the purpose of this exercise I've just used a 1-for-1. Feel free to share you thoughts on the trade value in the comments if you wish.
Below is a summary of the offseason moves for 2020 and 2021, and some of my thoughts on whether or not a trade like this would work.
****** 2020 OFFSEASON ******
- UFA: Nieto, Wilson, Namestnikov, and Barberio
- Resign: Burakovksy, Nichuskin, Jost, Graves, and Zadorov
- Trade Byram for Connor
- Trade Kamenev and Compher for futures (keep Jost at 3C as he is cheaper)
- Promote Kaut
****** 2021 OFFSEASON ******
- UFA: Bellemare, Calvert, Cole
- Promote Bowers, O'Connor, Timmins
- Expansion Draft: Zadorov selected by Seattle (see below)
- Sign a 6D in UFA to replace Zadorov (or promote Zhuravlyov if he's ready).
Expansion Draft Protection (7+3+1):
- Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Connor, Kadri, Burakovsky, Jost
- Makar, Girard, Graves (Johnson waives NMC, and maybe we pay Seattle to not select him)
- Grubauer
Exposed: Donskoi, Zadorov, Johnson, Francouz. Seattle likely pick Zadorov.
Paying for Makar (+$9m) / Landeskog (+$2m) / Grubauer (+$1m), would require $12m in cap opened up.
- Calvert (-$2m), Bellemare (-$1m), Cole (-$3m), and Zadorov (-$2m) moved (via UFA/ED) and replaced by Bowers (ELC), O'Connor (ELC), and Timmins ($1.5m). This saves ~$8m.
- Newhook (ELC) can replace one of Donskoi ($3.9m), Jost ($2m, 3C) to save another $1-3m. Newhook could perhaps even make Kadri ($4.5m) expendable as soon as 2021. Keep in mind that Sakic was comfortable trading Barrie before Makar had played a regular season game, and he might feel the same way about moving Kadri if Newhook plays well in the 2021 playoffs.
- If needed we can also move Johnson ($6m), though that would depend on Timmins being ready.
Looking even further ahead, 2023 would be the next time we need significant capspace to pay for Mackinnon. At that stage Johnson's $6m comes off the books and pays for most of Mackinnon's raise. By then the cap will also probably have risen due to the Seattle expansion and new TV deal, so that should help cover some new contracts.
****** THOUGHTS *******
This COULD legitimately work, especially in the short-term. However, from 2021 onwards sacrifices would need to be made to the roster depth, and we'd be betting on ELC's slightly more than otherwise. I think Colorado CAN add a $7m forward for the foreseeable future, BUT, it would be tricky to do at the expense of an ELC defenseman like Byram without compromising the D group and roster depth.
Looking at the D group, there is a risk that Graves regresses after his break-out season, and with Cole, Johnson, and Zadorov being expensive/aging there could be considerable uncertainty created on the blueline going forwards. Moving Byram would also put more pressure on Timmins needing to be a hit as a Top 4 Dman, which is also risky given his concussion history. If Graves were to regress to being a 3rd pairing D and Timmins has recurring health issues, then we'd be left with Girard and Makar as our only legitimate top 4 defensemen going forwards. Conversely, if Graves (or Zadorov for that matter) and Timmins are legit Top 4 D's then our D group would be looking really solid, even without Byram.
Byram's ELC is clearly tremendously valuable to this team, and so ideally we'd try to pursue other avenues of adding a top 6 forward that don't involve giving up key prospects that will contribute on ELC's (i.e. Byram and Newhook). Trading Byram for a player needing ED protection also likely means that we would lose a slightly better player in the ED than we otherwise would. But adding a player like Connor to the forward group could possibly put us over the top in the next few years so it might be worth it.
Note that Timmins is only included in this AGM as a "scratch" to show depth. Avs usually carry only 1F and 1D extra, and without Timmins as an "extra" scratch Avs would be $900k below the $81.5m cap ceiling.
All-in-all I think it's a really intriguing trade idea, which I can see really good arguments for and also against, and so I'm really curious to hear some thoughts in the comments below!
Colorado should 100% do it and worry about the cap later. Connor is a very good winger that Byram would have a lot to prove to match up to him. Winnipeg gets bent over here
Colorado should 100% do it and worry about the cap later. Connor is a very good winger that Byram would have a lot to prove to match up to him. Winnipeg gets bent over here
This is what I was going to say, your getting another winger of Rantanens quality and your adding a fairly low cap hit for the points he produces. I think that in the first 2-3 years your defiently going to be the winners of this trade as o don't think that Byram would have an immediate affect like Makar did or Hughes. Defiently an interesting trade proposal
Good Analysis, tough question, and yes intriguing. I think WPG would pass to be perfectly honest. Poink stepped up his game in a huge way last year. I don't see why that can't continue. They also drafted an offensive Dman last year too. Their cap situation is a bit tough to forecast, but I don't think they'd need to trade away one of the best forwards for cap purposes.
Also, I have my concerns about Bowen Byram now. AND I was 100% a Bowen Byram guy that thought the Hawks should have drafted him with the #3OA. I was wrong. I'm now very happy with the choice they made. Byram had a decline this past year. He was FOR SURE looking back to form at the end of the season, but he was sent down to work on his defensive game and I'm not so sure that was accomplished. The Vancouver Giants are clearly a worse team than last year, but have mostly the same guys. Sure, every year a guy or two leave, but he's supposed to be the leader there. He's far from a bad prospect. I just think there's more questions than answers after another year in the WHL.
You really did your homework on this. Great work. However for MacKinnon, you won’t need as much space as you think. He’s already stated bat he’s cool taking a pay cut
Good Analysis, tough question, and yes intriguing. I think WPG would pass to be perfectly honest. Poink stepped up his game in a huge way last year. I don't see why that can't continue. They also drafted an offensive Dman last year too. Their cap situation is a bit tough to forecast, but I don't think they'd need to trade away one of the best forwards for cap purposes.
Also, I have my concerns about Bowen Byram now. AND I was 100% a Bowen Byram guy that thought the Hawks should have drafted him with the #3OA. I was wrong. I'm now very happy with the choice they made. Byram had a decline this past year. He was FOR SURE looking back to form at the end of the season, but he was sent down to work on his defensive game and I'm not so sure that was accomplished. The Vancouver Giants are clearly a worse team than last year, but have mostly the same guys. Sure, every year a guy or two leave, but he's supposed to be the leader there. He's far from a bad prospect. I just think there's more questions than answers after another year in the WHL.
This is all the rhetoric you get about Byram. He didn’t have a down year. He went back to junior and as requested spent the 1st half of his season focusing on his defense per Avs request. And because his offensive numbers weren’t lighting the world on fire people play the he had a down season. Well then in the last month and half of play he averages 2 points a game. He is almost unanimously the best defensive prospect in the league and ranked in the top 3 overall in the league. I like Dach, but imo Chicago is going to get an up close and personal we should have drafted him in Byram for the next decade.
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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