Timmins had an excellent camp and preseason in 2019, and will make it hard to omit him next season even with Byram joining. If Timmins makes it then it makes sense to pair him with Girard rather than Byram.
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Namestnikov is coming off a 31 point (78 game) season in 18/19, and 31 point (63 game) season in 19/20. Being generous this puts him at about ~0.5ppg which is in line with the production of Compher ($3.5m/4 years) and Donskoi ($3.9m/4 years). It's thus reasonable that his salary would fall somewhere in between them.
It's likely that Namestnikov will get offers with more term and/or dollars elsewhere, but at age 27 a 3 year contract would enable him to cash in again at 30 rather than 31 so might suit him better than a 4+ year deal (along of course with the benefit of playing on a contender). 3 years is also perfect for Colorado as it expires in time for Mackinnon's 2023 raise.
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All draft picks received in trades are 2021 picks, which reflects the fact that the draft will likely be in June. With these trades Colorado would have 8 picks in the 2021 draft with which they could stock up the prospect pool and/or make trades.
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In 2021 Cole and Smith hit UFA and free up $8.6m that can go towards resigning Makar, Landeskog, and Grubauer.
Expansion Draft Protection (7+3+1):
- Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, Burakovsky, Namestnikov, Donskoi
- Makar, Girard, Graves (Johnson waives NMC)
- Francouz
Exposed: Compher, Nichuskin, Johnson, Grubauer (as an UFA Grubauer declines to sign with Seattle and instead resigns in Colorado).
Rather than go into the season with $5-6m in unused capspace, Avs weaponise it to pick up an extra draft pick. In Smith they also get a player who can still provide depth at both LHD and LW.
Smith is an UFA in 2021 so this only affects 1 year. His base salary for 2020/21 is only $2.35m which despite his caphit isn't unreasonable dollar-wise for a depth guy.
This move would still leave Colorado with over ~$1.5m unused capspace, meaning that there will be enough cap accrual by the deadline to still add a good player for the playoffs.
NYR
Cap Dump
Rangers need to move one of Staal or Smith in order to create space at LHD for their upcoming prospects (i.e. Hajek, Rykov, K'Andre Miller, Robertson). They also need capspace to resign Strome, DeAngelo, and Georgiev.
With Staal having a NMC and thus impossible to move, Smith is the obvious choice. With a flat cap Rangers will find it hard to find a taker though, and thus use the lower of their 2021 3rd's to make it worthwhile to a team with unused capspace.
Why wouldnt they get better than a 3rd if hes isnt going to play?
I think for higher than a 3rd Rangers could find another taker, like Ottawa for example. On many other teams Smith would also be higher in the lineup.
One thing I didn't mention is that I also considered moving Cole for picks as well and having Smith as the clear 7D, but I figured that with two rookies on D it would make sense to keep a veteran like Cole around, at least to start the season. If we needed capspace at any point then it would be easy to move him.
I think the key with Smith is that his actual salary is $2m lower than his AAV, so we could weaponise the capspace while only paying half of the AAV. That factor is also what would make him attractive to a team like Ottawa as mentioned earlier.
I also think it's important to note that Smith can play as a forward too, so whilst he might not crack the D very often if Cole stays, he would probably make it in one of the forward positions when injuries strike.
It's a good thought on Smith. There are very few teams that have the cap and is on Smith's M NTC "trade to" list, the Avs being one.
One thing about cap space...Teams don't like to carry much if any bonus overage in the next season. How much of that 5.4m potential bonus is going to be earned in 2020/21?
Tbh I think Cole - Timmins will start as the 3rd pair (Girard - Johnson 2nd). Byram starting at the Eagles, and getting some team in the NHL somewhere during the season.
It's a good thought on Smith. There are very few teams that have the cap and is on Smith's M NTC "trade to" list, the Avs being one.
One thing about cap space...Teams don't like to carry much if any bonus overage in the next season. How much of that 5.4m potential bonus is going to be earned in 2020/21?
How do you know that the Avs are on his "trade to" list? Has that information been leaked to the public?
I'm not sure I follow exactly what you mean by bonus overage and earning in 2020/21, could you clarify please? Do you simply mean that teams don't like to have excess capspace, or that they don't like to allocate a large proportion of capspace to players who would often be healthy scratched (as would be the case with Cole+Smith)?