After a disappointing 23/24' season, this is my prediction for how Brad Treliving handles his first full off-season at the helm of the Leafs - important note: anything above Treliving won't be talked about much although I firmly believe Shanahan stays for 1 more season.
May 10, 2024 - Sheldon Keefe and his entire coaching staff are relieved of their duties with the Toronto Maple Leafs. I don't believe Keefe is a bad coach, or not able to coach this team - however he's the easy scapegoat for what has to be major changes after all the playoff disappointment. I believe the replacement head coach will be Craig Berube, and the rest of the staff will be filled out over the course of the summer.
Draft Day (June 28 2024)
Round 1:
#23 - (C/LW) Cole Beaudin / Barrie Colts (OHL):
Big, strong, power forward player that has a motor that doesn't stop. Will outwork opponents in the corners and beat them to the front of the net for a net front presence. Likely better suited as a winger to compliment a more offensive, speedy centre - but will make his impact felt.Can be deployed in all situations and trusted.
Potential - middle 6 centre/top 6 wingers
Player Comparable - Boone Jenner
Draft Day (June 29, 2024);
After continuous talks on the draft floor with Kyle Davidson of the Chicago Blackhawks, Treliving pulls the trigger on the first domino to fall and trades Mitch Marner to Chicago for Seth Jones (see trade description for full details)
Round 2:
#34 (from Chicago) - (RD) Charlie Elick / Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL):
Good skating, defence first defender. Plays with a bit of a physical edge and some pushback. Not much offence to his game but is relied on to shut down secondary offence and kill penalties .Has struggled a bit in the second half of the season so I project him to slide down the draft board to the second round but also a potential late first round pick.
Potential - #4 defender
Player Comparable - Chris Tanev
Round 4:
#119 - (G) Ryerson Leenders / Mississauga Steelheads (OHL):
Very intense competitor. Always competes and has shown great strides in his draft year. Average size but very athletic and uses his butterfly to his advantage. Very calm under pressure. Will need some time to develop but is considered one of the top goalies available in 2024.
Potential - High end backup
Player Comparable - Logan Thompson
Round 5:
#150 (from Nashville) - (LD) Gabriel Eliasson / HV71 J20 (J20 Nationell):
Very simple - a big, strong, physically punishing defender that plays to his game. Hard to compete against and plays with a dirty edge. Not much offence at all to his game but that's not what he's out there to do and he knows his strengths well. Average skater at best, it will need to improve to make the jump to the next level but would be a Treliving coveted player.
Potential - #6 defender
Player Comparable - Joel Edmundson
#151 - (LW) Lucas Van Vliet / USNTDP:
Sneaky pick here in the 5th round - Van Vliet has steadily risen up the rankings with limited ice time. Very smart player in all 3 zones and can be deployed in all situations but mainly a even strength and PP role currently as he's a sneaky good play driver that could lead to some more untapped offence.
Potential - Two-way 3rd line foward
Player Comparable - Nick Schmaltz
#155 (from Vancouver) - (C/LW) Ollie Josephson / Red Deer (WHL):
Very competitive, strong two-way forward that competes in the corners in all 3 zones. Smart enough and versatile with enough skill to provide more offence but lacks the consistency to produce greater amounts. Will be a solid PK player with his high level IQ.
Potential - Bottom 6 forward
Player Comparable: Zemgus Girgensons
Round 7:
#199 (from Ottawa) - (LD) Luke Ashton / Langley Riverman (BCHL);
Noticeable size on the back end that uses his size and reach to his advantage. Not overly physical for his size, but not afraid to pushback when needed. Saw his production drastically increase after a move to Langley in the BCHL but likely not much offence at the next level. Willingness to block shots and control the defensive net front are his strong suits.
Potential - #7/8 defender
Player Comparable - Simon Benoit
#215 - (C) Dalyn Wakely / North Bay Battalion (OHL):
An overager helping North Bay to a deep playoff run, Wakely screams a Treliving style late round pick in that he pressures the puck non-stop on the forecheck and the backcheck. He has seen his offence double in his overage season but it has continued into the playoffs where he hasn't slowed down.
Potential - AHL scorer with frequent callups
Player Comparable - Adam Gaudette
If you're still reading to this point, great! Thanks for keeping up! Now let's transition to free agency and start reshaping the active roster.
July 1, 2024:
RFA's: Connor Dewar, Nic Robertson, and Alex Steeves (accepts QO).
Notable UFA's:
Max Domi - has been on record saying he'll do whatever it takes to stay a Leaf. I think he accept the same AAV but gets locked up long term.
Chris Tanev - I think among the FA pool, Tanev is the #1 option for Toronto. Hometown kid playing for the blue and white and has a history with Treliving (this will be a trend). I think Treliving commits longer term than other teams will and signs his big fish.
Elias Lindholm - likely not on July 1, but I think Treliving again circles back to someone he's familiar with to help fill the centre need of the team. Lindholm had a bit of a disappointing year, so perhaps a reasonable contract for an excellent 2 way top 6 centre - especially a right handed one that's well needed.
Oliver Kylington - later in the off-season, it becomes time to improve the mobility of the defence and not just the physicality. Fortunately for Toronto, Kylington has a connection to Treliving and is a msooth skating defender that can play both sides with a physical edge when needed. He missed significant time to mental health reasons, but a change of scenery could benefit his situation as well. He was also high on Toronto's draft board in his draft year but unfortunately they missed then but don't miss now.
Cam Talbot - with Joe Woll showing signs that he can steal games when needed but concerns of his health, a solid veteran #1B option will be needed in goal. Treliving signed Talbot in Calgary and he would be a great veteran to back up Woll and with starting experience if needed.
Jani Hakanpää - similar to the Simon Benoit signing last season, Hakanpää provides a solid physical depth defender that could earn a spot in the top 6 and be beloved by Leafs fans for his rough style.
Depth UFA's: (all assigned to Marlies and called upon as needed):
Chris Driedger, Kole Lind, Sammy Blais, Tyson Jost, Dakota Mermis, & Jacob Larsson
Between August 1, 2024 and start of training camp:
Trevliing starts to realize there are no viable options for the 3rd line centre spot, and trades Timothy Liljegren to the Utah Hockey Club for Jack McBain to fill the spot.
Training Camp Roster:
Line 1: Tavares has noticeably taken a step back. With the loss of Bertuzzi, the captain is a similar player to fill the void on Matthews' wing. He can work the corners and cycle, play with a bit of an edge, and not worry about the defensive assignments needed of a centre.
Line 2: Lindholm's best season came when he played on a line with Matt Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau - to help him repeat that form I've put him on a line with similar players to his old linemates (Knies plays similar to Tkachuk, Nylander plays similar to Gaudreau)
Line 3 - A bit more of a "prove it" kinda line but new acquisition McBain had success last seaosn playing with physical linemates so I've got him between McMann who can play physical and Robertson who brings a strong work ethic and offensive skill.
Line 4 - the defensive shutdown or energy line. They've played together recently and have played well. Reaves and Holmberg can substitute as needed on this line.
Pair 1 - a bit of a risky pair (I'm not sure IF or how well they played together in Chicago) but McCabe has shown he's capable of bigger minutes but is a bit or a roamer. Hopefully there's chemistry there.
Pair 2 - Lower Rielly's workload and gave him an actual good partner in Tanev. Both veterans could benefit from a lower than top pair minutes (Rielly for defensive game and Tanev for health reasons).
Pair 3 - A more physical pair with mobility. Benoit's skating has improved but still isn't great. His defensive, stay-at-home style can allow Kylington to roam a bit more and open up his offence.
PP1:
A much different look than years past - Jones with the big shot on the backend and is the QB of the unit with Matthews and Nylander shooting from the faceoff circles. Tavares in his office as the net front presence, and Robertson gets his shot as the bumper spot in the slot.
PP2: Will be a work in progress with so many new faces. But Rielly keeps a PP spot with guys that can provide more traffic in front of the net.
PK Units:
Both very similar with forwards of each handedness to take draws on both sides of the ice that are responsible defensively as well as can bring speed. The defenders aren't afraid to black shots and can actually clear the net front of traffic.
I feel like this is a much improved look to the team and would create a more dynamic roster that's capable of winning in different ways. Some concerns would be the goaltending's health and possibly the PK unit depending how well the new coaching system would be bought into. But deadline areas to improve would mainly be depth and possibly a top 9 scorer if Robertson doesn't produce on the PP as the bumper spot.
If you've read this far, thanks! I apologize for all the description but a huge overhaul doesn't happen quick and takes a lot of thought and action. Try to keep the comments constructive.
Let's all assume Jones waives his NMC for starters - he has plenty of reasons and connections to Toronto to do so for this deal.
Why does Toronto make the deal?
Culture Shock. The core hasn't worked and it's time to send the message of accountability to the entire roster with.a shakeup of the hometown kid himself, and deal Marner. I don't believe Toronto will "win" any Marner deal, but the added benefit of cap space is a priority to start constructing the roster to be more complete for playoffs.
One of Treliving's main priorities last off-season was improving the depth offence for the playoffs and specifically on the PP. One move he did pull off was signing John Klingberg to be a big right handed shot on the PP and while that didn't go according to plan, Jones can now be that guy. Jones is everything Treliving likes in a defender - in that he's big, long reach, can eat minutes, play in all situations, and not afraid to be physical when needed. I know Friedman reported that he believed Toronto may have interest in Jones, but I also know this isn't the first time Treliving has had interest and he has previously called about the possibility of acquiring him. I believe this is his highly preferred option in starting to revamp the defence core.
Ryan Greene is an interesting prospect in my mind. He is a bit of a lower end prospect that may require some luck to make a big impact, but he has a strong work ethic and can provide some secondary offence as a potential 3rd line centre in the future.
Let's all assume Marner waives his NMC for starters - I think he'll have a long, hard look at the situation and realize the writing is on the wall and OK the deal.
Why does Chicago make the deal?
Blackhawks aren't quite back to a contending team yet, but the idea of pairing an elite 2 way playmaker in Marner with rising star Connor Bedard is too good to pass up. While they may not make playoffs in the near future, their window would still be right in the prime of Marner's career. While no extension is directly part of this deal, it gives Davidson and management a full year to negotiate a long term deal and perhaps bring the AAV down with the added 8th year (I predict Marner signs a 8 year/$12.25M AAV extension).
While losing Jones is tough for Chicago's defence core - they plan to sign a pending UFA right handed defender on the open market to fill the void left.
After moving Tavares to the wing permanently, there becomes a hole at the 3C position. To fill the spot, Trelviing looks to add a physical, younger roster player with some upside to his game. McBain fits that description. He has fallen lower on the depth chart where he finished the season as Arizona's 4C, but has worked on his defensive game to possibly earn a higher role with better players. Bringing home another hometown kid could motivate McBain to being his game to another level to develop as a potential 2 way centre for the Leafs.
A change of scenery does wonders sometimes for guys. Liljegren has solid underlying numbers, but is inconsistent in the eye test. The former Coyotes, and now Utah team, are a bit thin at right defence and pairing Liljegren with a defensive minded partner could prove to be a beneficial move - possibly Jusso Valimaki. Liljegren is a solid transition defender that can move the puck and has shown some defensive improvement as well. With McBain lower on their depth chart, acquiring Liljegren comes at a lower cost than other top defenders and he fits their core's age.
With every Marner trade, there seems to be this message of "accountability" that's intended to have a positive impact on the growth, performance, and culture of the team. However, it's abundantly clear how much the room loves Marner. I think it's safe to assume the core group that's played with him his entire life doesn't view him as the issue of their shortcomings. I think it's entirely possible this "message" could negatively affect the room. Players like Matthews and Nylander may question the direction of management and could very well become disgruntled with the organization. Imagine management forces Marner out, and the Leafs continue to fall short (and possibly get worse). That would almost certainly guarantee Matthews' departure in FA at the end of his contract.
You're a knowledgeable fan and I take your posts comments serious. My comment is no reflection on you or your effort.
I really don't think you're looking at this from the CHI perspective. IF CHI makes this trade they solve 1 problem, but create an even bigger problem. They don't have a Seth Jones Replacement. There isn't any #1RD available as a UFA and our single weakest position within our farm system is BY FAR the right side defender. Rinzel looks like he can be a nice #2RD and maybe Crevier can be a longer term #3RD, but thats what we got. It's so much easier to bring Kaner back. We can actually fills holes then and keep our assets. Plus did you say $12.25??? I'll stick with Jones and his $9.5.
You're a knowledgeable fan and I take your posts comments serious. My comment is no reflection on you or your effort.
I really don't think you're looking at this from the CHI perspective. IF CHI makes this trade they solve 1 problem, but create an even bigger problem. They don't have a Seth Jones Replacement. There isn't any #1RD available as a UFA and our single weakest position within our farm system is BY FAR the right side defender. Rinzel looks like he can be a nice #2RD and maybe Crevier can be a longer term #3RD, but thats what we got. It's so much easier to bring Kaner back. We can actually fills holes then and keep our assets. Plus did you say $12.25??? I'll stick with Jones and his $9.5.
I think you’re looking at things a bit narrow sighted. While yea I agree on the surface that losing Jones is a big loss, it’s not not overcomable. They don’t need a top pair guy to take his minutes, in UFA there are guys they can look at as a solid top 4 guy and then share the minutes with Murphy. A guy like Dylan Demelo would be a good option for that.
I’ve always thought that Chicago should target a top right handed defender in this year’s draft since they’re strong at forward and now with Chicago drafting in the top 3 for sure (the lottery is on commercial before the top picks are revealed as I write this) - but outside of them picking #1 I think they should take Artyom Levshunov regardless if they’re #2 or #3 which would then solve the future issue of a top pairing right handed defender that Jones’ spot left void
McDavid, Connor
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