Quoting: palhal
Leaf owners Bell and Rogers aren't worried about paying the remaining 10.6m on Horton's contract. Want money, they raise our telecom rates. The trade is really Tanev for Liljegren, I doubt if the Leafs do that. Also added that cap for this year may not be the best for the Leafs. And having 4.4m in cap next year might be more important to the Leafs than Tanev.
Is Spezza rarely the mentor you want?
As much as that is probably true, getting another team to eat that money is always better than doing it yourself. And Tanevs caphit proposed here is 2.225 with 50% retained for this and next year, not 4.4.
No matter how rich the team is and can happily afford to pay a player to be injured until they retire, there is also the worry that Horton could manage to pass the physical and is cleared to play, thus no longer being eligible to be on the LTIR for cap relief. If that happens, the Leafs are on the hook for his full cap hit, and very few teams are going to take him without serious compensation in return. Every GM knows the Leafs are in serious cap trouble going forward with AM, MM, KK, CC and Gardiner all needing new contracts next summer with Nylander needing his contract this summer.
No, Spezza is not the mentor off the ice, but he is still decent enough on the ice that he is an offensive upgrade over just about anyone else up the middle. And for a single year, wouldn't be that big of a concern if he's poor-ish in the dressing room as long as he can help transition Pettersson to the middle for 2019/20 and put up some points. The Canucks lost ~140pts with the departure of the Sedins and Vanek... Need to replace those points somehow, and all that load on rookies is a lot to ask.
Quoting: LoganOllivier
A Tanev for Liljegren makes zero sense from a Leafs perspective. The huge weakness that you're using to justify this cost is the need for top pairing right handed defenceman. You don't trade exactly that for an older version with zero upside. (Tanev is what he is, it won't get better. Don't get me wrong its very valuable, but Liljegren is exactly what Toronto needs 2-3 years from now and Tanev could be declining by then due to injuries and just getting older.)
That is the only reason that matters in the argument of how much Tanev is worth. He's worth a lot and I'd consider moving Sandin for Tanev but definitely not Liljegren.
Would you not say Tanev would have been exactly what the Leafs needed in the Boston series this spring? The lack of a stabilizing defensive guy on that top pairing cost the leafs that series, imho.
Liljegren projects to be a top pairing guy, but that could be 2-3+more years away, or never. Jack Johnson was projected to be an Elite #1 in the NHL, he's never gotten there and has always been more of a complementary/filler top4 guy.
With Tanev, you get a very defensively sound player that will stabilize and fill a major hole on the top pairing with Rielly, giving the leaf the chance to win now for a manageable cap hit going into 19/20. You are right though,
Hutton is an RFA and in the right system could easily be a top4 guy and will probably take a pay cut on his next contract unless he blows up this season. He actually had a decent year to start 2017/18, but then was the victim of poor deployment and pairings which slid him down the depth chart to a healthy scratch. Hutton has been a victim of a terrible coach that ran his confidence into the ground in Willy.D, and a coach who was forced to play him with Gudbranson due to injury issues, castrating his play and exaggerating his weaknesses. He was on the positive side of all of the analytics while playing with Tanev at the start of the season.
Like a Lot of Leafs fans who keep seeing Tanev for Liljegren trade scenarios, most focus on basically a straight up trade. I'm proposing the Leafs get Tanev, a project with a high potential upside in Hutton and getting out from under a potential cap nightmare should Horton pass his physical. The latter is a calculated risk that has ramifications that would likely result in the loss of a player like Liljegren and/or more if realized.
Sandin might be a better option for the trade, but that would also require another piece or 2 back (2nd/3rd rounder and/or another B-level prospect for the farm) for 2 roster D and eating Horton's salary and potential to become a cap nightmare. What would you propose as a trade scenario with Sandin as the main piece coming back?