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Forums/Armchair-GM

EK to STL?

Created by: bjprice
Team: 2017-18 St. Louis Blues
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 13, 2018
Published: Jan. 13, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Why not?

Which fan base thinks this trade is skewed in one direction? I'm curious.
Trades
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
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2019
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2020
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$75,000,000$66,445,000$0$565,000$8,555,000
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$5,350,000$5,350,000
LW
UFA - 4
$5,125,000$5,125,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
$3,750,000$3,750,000
RW
UFA - 6
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C
UFA - 3
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 1
$925,000$925,000
C
UFA - 3
$5,750,000$5,750,000
LW, RW, C
NTC
UFA - 4
$3,850,000$3,850,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 5
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$875,000$875,000 (Performance Bonus$50,000$50K)
LW, RW
UFA - 2
$675,000$675,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
$950,000$950,000
C
UFA - 1
$800,000$800,000
LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$1,050,000$1,050,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$4,350,000$4,350,000
G
UFA - 4
$5,400,000$5,400,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
$1,125,000$1,125,000
G
UFA - 1
$2,900,000$2,900,000
LD
UFA - 2
$1,150,000$1,150,000
RD
UFA - 2
$697,500$697,500 (Performance Bonus$257,500$258K)
G
RFA - 3
$722,500$722,500 (Performance Bonus$257,500$258K)
LD/RD
UFA - 3
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
LW
UFA - 1

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Jan. 13, 2018 at 11:53 a.m.
#1
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Love Parayko, goung to take more though.
Jan. 13, 2018 at 12:28 p.m.
#2
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bjprice
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Quoting: Gofnut999
Love Parayko, goung to take more though.


I dunno...

Colton is 23 and has 4 1/2 years of control at a very reasonable 5.5 AAV.

EK is 27 and has 1 1/2 years of control at 6.5 AAV, then will get at least a marginal raise - guessing ~60 mil over 8 years or higher. So the price of trading for EK is owning those final 4-5 years where his play will decline as any player would - basically signing up to pay a guy 8+ mil when hes 35, 36, all for the benefit of having him now.

We all know that EK is a perennial All-star and Norris candidate, but that is mostly based on his offensive gifts.

Parayko actually has better underlying numbers as far as 5v5 play - and not just cherry picked or based on some selective time-frame...but over his entire career.

If they were the same age and contract this proposal is surely laughable, but all circumstances considered, I think it is quite even.
Jan. 13, 2018 at 12:35 p.m.
#3
Lenny7
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Quoting: bjprice
EK is 27 and has 1 1/2 years of control at 6.5 AAV, then will get at least a marginal raise - guessing ~60 mil over 8 years or higher.


Ha! 60/8? Karlsson is going to get paid, and he's going to get paid a lot more than $7.5/season. Think somewhere between $10-11/yr.
Jan. 13, 2018 at 1:13 p.m.
#4
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bjprice
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Quoting: Lenny7
Ha! 60/8? Karlsson is going to get paid, and he's going to get paid a lot more than $7.5/season. Think somewhere between $10-11/yr.


I don't know about that.

Subban signed an 8 year deal at 24 years old, buying out many of his best years, for 9 AAV.

Brent Burns, EK's offensive Norris rival, just signed 8 years, 8 AAV.

Viktor Hedman, possibly the leagues true best defenseman, 7.875 AAV, 8 years, age 25, just signed.

EK is better, but will be 29 when his next contract kicks in. At 8 years that's ages 35-37 on the back end. I think, depending on what else EK wants, that 8-10 AAV is reasonable. I'm using 8 as my starting point, and will happily eat crow in the coming year if I'm wrong, but I think every single one of EK's peers validating my point makes yours a bit weak.
Jan. 13, 2018 at 1:15 p.m.
#5
g-sus
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Karlsson is a top-3 defenseman in the league when healthy. You need to give up a lot more than just Parayko.
Jan. 13, 2018 at 1:24 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: bjprice
I dunno...

Colton is 23 and has 4 1/2 years of control at a very reasonable 5.5 AAV.

EK is 27 and has 1 1/2 years of control at 6.5 AAV, then will get at least a marginal raise - guessing ~60 mil over 8 years or higher. So the price of trading for EK is owning those final 4-5 years where his play will decline as any player would - basically signing up to pay a guy 8+ mil when hes 35, 36, all for the benefit of having him now.

We all know that EK is a perennial All-star and Norris candidate, but that is mostly based on his offensive gifts.

Parayko actually has better underlying numbers as far as 5v5 play - and not just cherry picked or based on some selective time-frame...but over his entire career.

If they were the same age and contract this proposal is surely laughable, but all circumstances considered, I think it is quite even.


All valid points, doesn’t change the fact it would take more.

Ask the folks in OTT and they’ll scream you need to throw in a high end prospect and pick(s). Ask the folks in STL and they’ll scream no way maybe a mid to late round pick added but that’s it. Ask the rest of us with no emotional attachment and you get somewhere in the middle which is the actual fair market value.
Jan. 13, 2018 at 2:09 p.m.
#7
Lenny7
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Quoting: bjprice
I don't know about that.

Subban signed an 8 year deal at 24 years old, buying out many of his best years, for 9 AAV.

Brent Burns, EK's offensive Norris rival, just signed 8 years, 8 AAV.

Viktor Hedman, possibly the leagues true best defenseman, 7.875 AAV, 8 years, age 25, just signed.

EK is better, but will be 29 when his next contract kicks in. At 8 years that's ages 35-37 on the back end. I think, depending on what else EK wants, that 8-10 AAV is reasonable. I'm using 8 as my starting point, and will happily eat crow in the coming year if I'm wrong, but I think every single one of EK's peers validating my point makes yours a bit weak.


I'm not seeing anyone on that list that has won the Norris twice...Add in the fact that over the past 4 seasons (Among D-men), Karlsson has 51 more assists, and 81 more pts than anyone else.

Not to mention that he and Doughty both consider themselves worth "quite a bit more than that.", in reference to PK's contract, and both have said that they won't take hometown discounts. PK also had cheaper RFA years bought out when he got his extension, whereas Doughty and Karlsson will both be true UFA's.
Jan. 13, 2018 at 2:47 p.m.
#8
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bjprice
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Quoting: Lenny7
I'm not seeing anyone on that list that has won the Norris twice...Add in the fact that over the past 4 seasons (Among D-men), Karlsson has 51 more assists, and 81 more pts than anyone else.

Not to mention that he and Doughty both consider themselves worth "quite a bit more than that.", in reference to PK's contract, and both have said that they won't take hometown discounts. PK also had cheaper RFA years bought out when he got his extension, whereas Doughty and Karlsson will both be true UFA's.


True, this certainly is a subject that could be argued forever, but at least well know pretty soon. For example, while EK is far and beyond the best offensive defenseman in the league today, and potentially a GOAT, he is sub par at shot suppression and turns the puck over at extremely high rates. That doesn't mean he isn't a top 3 defenseman in the NHL, but the player comparison that goes into contract negotiations will encompass more than points.

It will be most interesting to see who signs first out of Doughty and Karlsson - because one of the two will set the price for the other. If either blink and take an 8.5 x 8 extension from their current club, the other will be stuck with that amount - especially given Burns and Hedman's contracts. Given the Senator's owner and history of an internal cap, I doubt they will be the ones to pull the trigger.

This proposal and subsequent arguing was made just to start a friendly debate on a day my team isn't playing :P No hard feelings meant either way.
Lenny7 liked this.
Jan. 15, 2018 at 4:47 p.m.
#9
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EK is elite when healthy but that is WHEN healthy. Dude always seems to have some sort of lingering injury lately. No way would I give up a young sizeable defenseman for someone that is going to want the stars and the moon in the next couple years. BLUES PASS
 
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