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What is the value of Pageau?

Created by: FrozenWaterSports
Team: 2017-18 Pittsburgh Penguins
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 21, 2018
Published: Jan. 21, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
If the Pens go for a bigger trade instead of cheap trades I believe this is their main target
Trades
OTT
  1. Sheary, Conor
  2. 2019 3rd round pick (PIT)
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
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2019
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2020
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$75,000,000$70,725,413$50,000$805,000$4,274,587
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$734,167$734,167 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
LW, RW
UFA - 2
$8,700,000$8,700,000
C
NMC
UFA - 8
$692,500$692,500 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$640,000$640,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$9,500,000$9,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 5
$6,800,000$6,800,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 5
$1,875,000$1,875,000
LW
UFA - 2
$3,100,000$3,100,000
C
UFA - 3
$4,250,000$4,250,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
$692,500$692,500 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$2,075,000$2,075,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
$1,125,000$1,125,000
RW
UFA - 1
$612,500$612,500
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$4,100,000$4,100,000
LD
UFA - 6
$7,250,000$7,250,000
RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 5
$3,750,000$3,750,000
G
UFA - 3
$3,333,225$3,333,225
LD
UFA - 5
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RD
UFA - 3
$2,250,000$2,250,000
LD
UFA - 3
$964,688$964,688
LD/RD
UFA - 1
$630,833$630,833 (Performance Bonus$257,500$258K)
G
UFA - 1
$2,100,000$2,100,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1

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Jan. 21, 2018 at 5:02 p.m.
#1
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That's a pretty decent deal
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Jan. 21, 2018 at 5:58 p.m.
#2
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Sheary for Pageau straight up is the most I’d do for him. Sheary is already a better player which makes up for the “Center has more value argument”. No need to add a pick
Jan. 21, 2018 at 7:05 p.m.
#3
Lafreniere
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Quoting: Pensfan89
Sheary for Pageau straight up is the most I’d do for him. Sheary is already a better player which makes up for the “Center has more value argument”. No need to add a pick

Sheary isn’t better than Pageau.

I’d also have Pageau on this team 10/10 times over Sheary.
Jan. 21, 2018 at 7:06 p.m.
#4
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If Pageau was on your team, would you trade him for Sheary and a 3rd? No, you wouldn't.

Sheary and a 2nd? No, you'd keep Pageau.

Sheary and a 1st? Some might do it at this point, but still many would not.
Jan. 21, 2018 at 7:44 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: ShafferPens
Sheary isn’t better than Pageau.

I’d also have Pageau on this team 10/10 times over Sheary.


Yes Sheary is. Stats and advanced stats back it up. I’ve proven it over and over again. If you don’t want to admit you’re wrong than so be it.
Jan. 21, 2018 at 7:48 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Moller
If Pageau was on your team, would you trade him for Sheary and a 3rd? No, you wouldn't.

Sheary and a 2nd? No, you'd keep Pageau.

Sheary and a 1st? Some might do it at this point, but still many would not.


It would depend on team needs. If the current pens had Pageau and the current sens has Sheary then neither team does the trade straight up. Ottawa needs wingers and pens need a 3 C. But that doesn’t mean the pens would over pay for a 3C.
But for Sheary and a 3rd, yes I’d do that trade 100 out of 100 Times.
Sheary and a 2nd I’m taking it and running. Cause I could easily turn that 2nd into Bozak and have a much better team.
If you wouldn’t trade Pageau for Sheary and a 1st, then you would get fired and should never have a gm job ever ever again.
Jan. 21, 2018 at 7:52 p.m.
#7
Lafreniere
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Quoting: Pensfan89
Yes Sheary is. Stats and advanced stats back it up. I’ve proven it over and over again. If you don’t want to admit you’re wrong than so be it.

Sheary stats are inflated by Crosby, no doubt. Pageau on the other hand can drive play in both zones. Pageau also PKs. Sheary may have better offensive skills, but Pageau is a better a more complete player.
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Jan. 21, 2018 at 7:56 p.m.
#8
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https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/shearco01.html
Conor Sheary
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/pageaje01.html
JG Pageau

I’ll take the guy that scores more yet averages less ice time, can play multiple forward positions, generates more shots while suppressing more shots. Conor Sheary is the better player easily
Jan. 21, 2018 at 7:58 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: ShafferPens
Sheary stats are inflated by Crosby, no doubt. Pageau on the other hand can drive play in both zones. Pageau also PKs. Sheary may have better offensive skills, but Pageau is a better a more complete player.


http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com/2017/05/hero-charts-player-evaluation-tool.html?m=1
No, that is completely false. Sheary is the more complete player
Sheary has barely played with Crosby this year. Been more on the 3rd line
Jan. 21, 2018 at 8:16 p.m.
#10
Lafreniere
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Quoting: Pensfan89
http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com/2017/05/hero-charts-player-evaluation-tool.html?m=1
No, that is completely false. Sheary is the more complete player
Sheary has barely played with Crosby this year. Been more on the 3rd line


Sheary has played 83% of his ES minutes with Sid.
http://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_profiler.php?sent=go&players=4110&games=2017-2018:R

Agree to disagree, but stats don’t show everything.
Jan. 21, 2018 at 8:32 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: ShafferPens
Sheary has played 83% of his ES minutes with Sid.
http://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_profiler.php?sent=go&players=4110&games=2017-2018:R

Agree to disagree, but stats don’t show everything.

I call Bull on that site. I know for a fact that there has been quite a few games that Hagelin-Sheahan-Sheary played on the same line. And that own site says that Sheary-McKegg-Rust line has 6.3% production yet the same site says they were never on a line together. So that makes zero sense.
And yes, stats do show everything. That’s what advanced stats are for. And that’s what the Hero charts are for. To show how well players play in every zone.
Jan. 21, 2018 at 8:49 p.m.
#12
Lafreniere
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Quoting: Pensfan89


Umm it was a line when McKeeg was 3C. Some good players have bad advanced stats. If all that matters is advanced stats, then why even go to a game to scout it? Just look up the advanced stats. Do you see the problem?
Jan. 21, 2018 at 9:10 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: ShafferPens
Umm it was a line when McKeeg was 3C. Some good players have bad advanced stats. If all that matters is advanced stats, then why even go to a game to scout it? Just look up the advanced stats. Do you see the problem?


That’s the point of why that site is bull. The line combinations where it doesn’t show that the Sheary-McKegg-Rust line existed adds all his other lines up to 100% of ice time. Yet he still somehow played on that line. So those numbers are clearly bogus.

And teams scout to see if a player will work in their system. Yes, stats and advanced stats are extremely important, but it’s also about whether a player will work in that teams system. Sometimes players are just products of a system.
Jan. 28, 2018 at 7:56 a.m.
#14
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Edited Jan. 28, 2018 at 8:03 a.m.
No doubt . I like it. Hunwick needs to be flip.
Lines needs to be better like
Guentzel-Crosby-Simon/Rust
Rust/Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel/Hornqvist
Rust/Hagelin -Pageau-Kessell/Hornqvist
Rowney-Sheahan-Reaves
I like Sprong on the first line but he needs to be better in term of no puck watching a lot (defensively lost) and among other things.i rather keep Simon on the first line because he showed and capable of being a top notch nhl caliber winger.Hes great defensively and good offensively for top 6 wing. If Sprong does come back he should be on 4th line gradually working he way up top line. He still needs a lot of improvements in his game plus his personality. Also I would keep Hagelin with Malkin because he brings out more defensive side of him ,him and Kessel shoot the puck the puck more with him. Same goes for Rust who can be rotate on first and second lines.they both create a lot time and space around defenders with their speed plus aggressive relentless forechecks.
Jan. 28, 2018 at 1:02 p.m.
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@Pensfan89 @ShafferPens

Conor Sheary is not better than Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Here is why:
In 2016-2017, Sheary was statistically dependent on Crosby to elevate his stats. The following graph breaks that down: http://www.hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/PIT/shearco92/wrap
In the above graph, you want to be as far right and up as possible. Notice the blue 87 box, all the way on the left. Yup, when Sheary didn't have Crosby he had a score-adjusted shots for of around 52 while having a score-adjusted shots against of around 59. Thats -7 in score adjusted shots for without Crosby.

In that same figure, take note of the black 87 box. That was where Sheary was with Crosby. Approximately 66 score-adjusted shots for vs. 57 score adjusted shots against. Around a +9 differential. Now look at Crosby without Sheary, which is represented by the red 87 box. The score-adjusted shots against are around the same, but Crosby had around 6 more score-adjusted shots for without Sheary.

To summarize, when Sheary was without Crosby, he had more shots happen against than for. When Crosby was without Sheary, he had around the same shots against, but more shots for. This means that Sheary feasted on Crosby's elite play driving ability and in doing so, held him back when he played with him.

Fast forward to present day: Sheary is playing on different lines. And guess what: he isn't producing nearly the same with Crosby. To give a reference point, here was his production in '16-'17 vs. '17-'18:

2016-2017: 0.868 PPG. Mike Hoffman that year was at 0.824 PPG with a center in Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5v5 only) --> 333 minutes
2017-2018: 0.372 PPG. Matt Calvert this year has 0.405 PPG.

So what does this mean? Exactly this:
Quoting: ShafferPens
Sheary stats are inflated by Crosby.


@Moller brings up a great point: if you were in the OTT position, would you make this trade? My answer: a swift no.
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Jan. 28, 2018 at 1:04 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
@Pensfan89 @ShafferPens

Conor Sheary is not better than Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Here is why:
In 2016-2017, Sheary was statistically dependent on Crosby to elevate his stats. The following graph breaks that down: http://www.hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/PIT/shearco92/wrap
In the above graph, you want to be as far right and up as possible. Notice the blue 87 box, all the way on the left. Yup, when Sheary didn't have Crosby he had a score-adjusted shots for of around 52 while having a score-adjusted shots against of around 59. Thats -7 in score adjusted shots for without Crosby.

In that same figure, take note of the black 87 box. That was where Sheary was with Crosby. Approximately 66 score-adjusted shots for vs. 57 score adjusted shots against. Around a +9 differential. Now look at Crosby without Sheary, which is represented by the red 87 box. The score-adjusted shots against are around the same, but Crosby had around 6 more score-adjusted shots for without Sheary.

To summarize, when Sheary was without Crosby, he had more shots happen against than for. When Crosby was without Sheary, he had around the same shots against, but more shots for. This means that Sheary feasted on Crosby's elite play driving ability and in doing so, held him back when he played with him.

Fast forward to present day: Sheary is playing on different lines. And guess what: he isn't producing nearly the same with Crosby. To give a reference point, here was his production in '16-'17 vs. '17-'18:

2016-2017: 0.868 PPG. Mike Hoffman that year was at 0.824 PPG with a center in Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5v5 only) --> 333 minutes
2017-2018: 0.372 PPG. Matt Calvert this year has 0.405 PPG.

So what does this mean? Exactly this:

@Moller brings up a great point: if you were in the OTT position, would you make this trade? My answer: a swift no.

Look at my recent Pageau to PIT trades. But great analysis!
Jan. 30, 2018 at 12:55 p.m.
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
@Pensfan89 @ShafferPens

Conor Sheary is not better than Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Here is why:
In 2016-2017, Sheary was statistically dependent on Crosby to elevate his stats. The following graph breaks that down: http://www.hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/PIT/shearco92/wrap
In the above graph, you want to be as far right and up as possible. Notice the blue 87 box, all the way on the left. Yup, when Sheary didn't have Crosby he had a score-adjusted shots for of around 52 while having a score-adjusted shots against of around 59. Thats -7 in score adjusted shots for without Crosby.

In that same figure, take note of the black 87 box. That was where Sheary was with Crosby. Approximately 66 score-adjusted shots for vs. 57 score adjusted shots against. Around a +9 differential. Now look at Crosby without Sheary, which is represented by the red 87 box. The score-adjusted shots against are around the same, but Crosby had around 6 more score-adjusted shots for without Sheary.

To summarize, when Sheary was without Crosby, he had more shots happen against than for. When Crosby was without Sheary, he had around the same shots against, but more shots for. This means that Sheary feasted on Crosby's elite play driving ability and in doing so, held him back when he played with him.

Fast forward to present day: Sheary is playing on different lines. And guess what: he isn't producing nearly the same with Crosby. To give a reference point, here was his production in '16-'17 vs. '17-'18:

2016-2017: 0.868 PPG. Mike Hoffman that year was at 0.824 PPG with a center in Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5v5 only) --> 333 minutes
2017-2018: 0.372 PPG. Matt Calvert this year has 0.405 PPG.

So what does this mean? Exactly this:

@Moller brings up a great point: if you were in the OTT position, would you make this trade? My answer: a swift no.


Quoting: phillyjabroni
@Pensfan89 @ShafferPens

Conor Sheary is not better than Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Here is why:
In 2016-2017, Sheary was statistically dependent on Crosby to elevate his stats. The following graph breaks that down: http://www.hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/PIT/shearco92/wrap
In the above graph, you want to be as far right and up as possible. Notice the blue 87 box, all the way on the left. Yup, when Sheary didn't have Crosby he had a score-adjusted shots for of around 52 while having a score-adjusted shots against of around 59. Thats -7 in score adjusted shots for without Crosby.

In that same figure, take note of the black 87 box. That was where Sheary was with Crosby. Approximately 66 score-adjusted shots for vs. 57 score adjusted shots against. Around a +9 differential. Now look at Crosby without Sheary, which is represented by the red 87 box. The score-adjusted shots against are around the same, but Crosby had around 6 more score-adjusted shots for without Sheary.

To summarize, when Sheary was without Crosby, he had more shots happen against than for. When Crosby was without Sheary, he had around the same shots against, but more shots for. This means that Sheary feasted on Crosby's elite play driving ability and in doing so, held him back when he played with him.

Fast forward to present day: Sheary is playing on different lines. And guess what: he isn't producing nearly the same with Crosby. To give a reference point, here was his production in '16-'17 vs. '17-'18:

2016-2017: 0.868 PPG. Mike Hoffman that year was at 0.824 PPG with a center in Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5v5 only) --> 333 minutes
2017-2018: 0.372 PPG. Matt Calvert this year has 0.405 PPG.

So what does this mean? Exactly this:

@Moller brings up a great point: if you were in the OTT position, would you make this trade? My answer: a swift no.

Thank you. Everyone gets mad about the true about Connor Sheary he is bad on the ice. Shouldn’t be on the first line. He isn’t a top line caliber winger . People need to give credit when it’s due because Crosby elevates Sheary game and Sheary doesn’t do that for him. Crosby is a elite all time great player that’s great defensively and offensively. G.O.A.T Sheary hampers Crosby’s game. Guentzel and Simon should be Crosby’s line unless they actively shopping him/ trading him right now for 3 C . I hate him on Crosby’s line. They should be . He’s to small and weak . Inconsistent. 10-11 goals in 50 games. Bad defensively. Crosby help Sheary get that 3 mill/3year deal. Sheary got throw on Crosby’s line because of Sullivan and he hurts his production. It has been many games he is lost on the ice , loose puck battles, can’t finish shots often falls down etc.. Stats tells you that and watching/ goingvto games tell you he needs to be traded. Go back watch Penguins @ Sharks Or last year Coyotes vs Penguins to see what hampers Crosby’s plus his slump. It’s many games show proof Sheary shouldn’t be on the top line like last year playoffs and games from last year. Guentzel is more valuable than Sheary plus should be on the left wing with Simon And Crosby.
Sheary needs Crosby more than Crosby needs him. Look how Mario made Warren Young decades ago . Sheary for Pageau is great since Leafs won’t stop being stubborn on Bozak.
Jan. 30, 2018 at 1:12 p.m.
#18
Lafreniere
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Quoting: Hockey87
Thank you. Everyone gets mad about the true about Connor Sheary he is bad on the ice. Shouldn’t be on the first line. He isn’t a top line caliber winger . People need to give credit when it’s due because Crosby elevates Sheary game and Sheary doesn’t do that for him. Crosby is a elite all time great player that’s great defensively and offensively. G.O.A.T Sheary hampers Crosby’s game. Guentzel and Simon should be Crosby’s line unless they actively shopping him/ trading him right now for 3 C . I hate him on Crosby’s line. They should be . He’s to small and weak . Inconsistent. 10-11 goals in 50 games. Bad defensively. Crosby help Sheary get that 3 mill/3year deal. Sheary got throw on Crosby’s line because of Sullivan and he hurts his production. It has been many games he is lost on the ice , loose puck battles, can’t finish shots often falls down etc.. Stats tells you that and watching/ goingvto games tell you he needs to be traded. Go back watch Penguins @ Sharks Or last year Coyotes vs Penguins to see what hampers Crosby’s plus his slump. It’s many games show proof Sheary shouldn’t be on the top line like last year playoffs and games from last year. Guentzel is more valuable than Sheary plus should be on the left wing with Simon And Crosby.
Sheary needs Crosby more than Crosby needs him. Look how Mario made Warren Young decades ago . Sheary for Pageau is great since Leafs won’t stop being stubborn on Bozak.

Umm Sheary doesn't hold Crosby back . . .
Jan. 30, 2018 at 2:16 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: Hockey87
Thank you. Everyone gets mad about the true about Connor Sheary he is bad on the ice. Shouldn’t be on the first line. He isn’t a top line caliber winger . People need to give credit when it’s due because Crosby elevates Sheary game and Sheary doesn’t do that for him. Crosby is a elite all time great player that’s great defensively and offensively. G.O.A.T Sheary hampers Crosby’s game. Guentzel and Simon should be Crosby’s line unless they actively shopping him/ trading him right now for 3 C . I hate him on Crosby’s line. They should be . He’s to small and weak . Inconsistent. 10-11 goals in 50 games. Bad defensively. Crosby help Sheary get that 3 mill/3year deal. Sheary got throw on Crosby’s line because of Sullivan and he hurts his production. It has been many games he is lost on the ice , loose puck battles, can’t finish shots often falls down etc.. Stats tells you that and watching/ goingvto games tell you he needs to be traded. Go back watch Penguins @ Sharks Or last year Coyotes vs Penguins to see what hampers Crosby’s plus his slump. It’s many games show proof Sheary shouldn’t be on the top line like last year playoffs and games from last year. Guentzel is more valuable than Sheary plus should be on the left wing with Simon And Crosby.
Sheary needs Crosby more than Crosby needs him. Look how Mario made Warren Young decades ago . Sheary for Pageau is great since Leafs won’t stop being stubborn on Bozak.


Stooooppp Sheary is not bad defensively. Pens fans just need their typical 3 or 4 scape goats and Sheary is all a sudden one cause he amongst like everyone else was having a down year until recently. People need to chill on the whole trade this guy and that guy because he has an unlucky half a season lol
 
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