Rod, how dull. But as you wrote, "the most realistic". When folks see that cap, they don't often realistic, the 5m of 2017/18 performance bonuses have to add, the 2018/19 PF, and Horton 5.25 should be put on the opening day roster. If possible I would like to JVR and his contract replaced with centre such as Backlund if possible, but there are few eligible UFA centres to be had. Johnson finally has finally pushed his way into a job contention with the Leafs.

Why 5 million in bonuses, Nylander, Marner and Borgman probably won't get their full bonuses. I see their bonuses being at more the 3.5-4 million range as I also don't think Matthews will win any major trophys or all star mvp so he might not get his full schedule A and B bonuses.

With the cap jumping, I see a lot of FA's getting overpayments especially Centers and D. I wouldn't mind Toronto holding back this offseason and just worrying about internal contracts.

I agree with you that we need a centre to replace Bozak. Backlund would be a great choice. I think the Flames won't resign him. He would be a good addition for a few years. There's a chance Lou may have wanted to bring Thornton for one year.

You seem to make a great deal of Horton and his salary on opening day roster. I'm not sure I get the point, despite explanations some have provided before. Last year, they simply waited a little before announcing Brown's contract. I may be wrong, but they can do the same with Nylander next year. That's in the case where they would add a number of players and that margin is needed. In any case, it seems Lou is pretty good at finding workarounds, so I view that cap space as usable.

lea

Leaflet. Thornton has suffered another MCL injury. I really don't know effective he would be next year. Horton on the opening day roster. It all about being able to use the performance bonus money of 2018/19 in the 2018/19 season, instead of ikicking down the road to 2019/20. And if 2019/20 the Leafs really need all there cap space with some expected big RFA signings.
Now Horton's contract comes off the roster after the first game and the Leafs then add players to fill the 5.25m void. So you're only talking about players that can don't send to the Marlies (not Nylander, Kapanen) that maybe you could get a little more cap space. For that reason, the Leafs, even without JVR and Bozak have only 8m for a UFA....even they don't want to carry over any performance bonuses.

You forgot to add Roman Polak as well, since he's the team future captain lol