Leafs don't have the cap to take on both Bobby Ryan and Erik Karlsson no way is Dorion eating half of Ryan's contract for the next 4 years or so. Plus your offer here isn't getting either you still need to resign Nylander plus bonus overage no way can the Leafs afford both Karlsson and Ryan.

I agree with your points.

The thing I am wondering is.....am I the only hockey fan in the world who sees how far Karlsson has fallen? As a Leaf fan in the East Coast of Canada I was forced to watch a lot so Sens games with the Leafs blacked out by the NHL. I would joke about Karlsson but in reality could see how his skating was exceptional. It got him out of all kinds of trouble.

Seeing his Achilles get cut that night by Matt Cooke made me worry. He seemed to almost completely recover and he was still amazing on his edges. This summer with the operations he said in late September when he got on the ice that his ankle was restricted like a piece of leather was on it. He no longer skates on his edges the same.

https://www.tsn.ca/karlsson-reveals-more-about-ankle-injury-1.868641
https://www.tsn.ca/karlsson-reveals-half-of-ankle-bone-removed-in-surgery-1.868465

I think he is done as an elite defense man because without his exceptional skating ability he needs to find passing lanes which he has been horrible at this year. Including last night if you saw the highlights.

I hope the Leafs avoid Karlsson at all costs.

Not sure I agree with Lark on the above! Leafs have over $14M coming off the cap next year, cap going up to app $80M, and yes you have to factor in about $5M in overages and $4M in Bonuses for 2018!
I do agree with Lark though that Ottawa won't even think about eating 50% of Bobby Ryan's contract, and even though I'm a huge Ryan fan, tough to see him fitting on the 4th line this year, although certainly gives us a cost effective alternative on LW in 2018! To accomodate Matthews and Marner in 2019, you either have to consider Karlsson as a two term rental, and or move Marner or Willie, and not sure what they have planned for Marleau! They can make it work, but many decisions would have to be factored in! Ryan would look great on Matthews line!

Lark/Doug, if reports are true, and Ottawa insists on moving Ryan with K (obviously a big if, but this is just a fun thought experiment), there is zero chance anybody has room for both without Dorion eating some. As for price, that’s 7 prime prospects going back (plus salary dump of Polak). Think they get more? Their owner is a disaster whose only goal is to drop salary; they do not want anybody back with, or about to get, a big salary. Flip one of the 2nds into another future 1st then. Or switch out prospects. Big 3 and Reilly only untouchables. As I said, this is a 2 playoff run rental unless can trade Zaitzev, which would make re-signing K easy.

BB, I’m stuck in the valley too and watch lots of Sens games. Until the foot injury, he was still best in world. Since back, he’s been getting better every week, and apparently has been told he’ll be 100% by April. I’d take him as a rental in a heartbeat.

Is Brian Burke back with the Leafs? This awful for the Leafs One unneeded overpaid winger (even with retention) and Karlsson that will leave after a year. Use that 10m on those two players even on short term free agents, and keep all your players and picks.

You seriously think Karlsson isn’t worth using some of the Leafs’ depth? Too many prospects now in system to worry about a few losses and draft picks. Karlsson indisputably top 3 D in league. Not worth trying for a cup now? Imagine him with Gardiner or Reilly. Best pair in league for 2 playoff runs. Could by themselves win a few playoff games.

Pal: of the pieces above that Oiler 35e5 suggest giving up. . . . My only real concern would be the 1st in 18, and Borgman, who I think has a real future with the Leafs! Both Ottawa guys come with some concerns but would also be easy to flip at suggested cap if they didn't work out. I would have serious concerns about Karlsson long term unless very visible improvement! Even in a suggested off year, he likely paces 60 points.

Very easy to claim he's fallen, but LOL look at our team. It took Karlsson a full season after the achilles injury to recover, this is the same thing. He's the best defenceman in the world, and superiorly smarter than 99% of players in the league. Once he finds a new balance in a skating technique, and believe me, he will, he's going to win more Norris trophies (even though he should've won the last two). Take it from someone who's watched every Send game this year, he's still the best player on the ice, but it's hard to play when his most common partner is Johnny Oduya. As soon as he plays with a competent partner again, I think you'll realize your opinion here (although very fair and justified) is incorrect.

wow I haven't read everything but Ryan overpaid at 3.575 per?

0.70 PPG in his first 3 seasons with Ottawa
Last year had an injury plagued season but came back strong in the playoffs as he was arguably the Sens MVP with Karlsson.
Even this year, which is another injury plagued season, but still has a 0.51 PPG (roughly the same as Mikko Koivu, Wennberg, Lucic, Bozak, Silfverberg, Nyquist, etc.)

I think you should take a look around and see what other forwards are making.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2018/caphit/all/forwards/all/desc/2

If he can remain healthy, no doubt in my mind Ryan is a +50 pts forward

Also, that proposal for Karlsson is just awful. That's really not the kind of pieces it would take. Anyone who followed the NHL enough knows that

.
Ryan has been unproductive for almost two years. He sure isn't taking Nylander's spot or Marner spot at the top two RWer. Or replace Brown on the 3rd line. We'll see what Karlsson brings in the future, but really the only teams that might a premium price would be true contenders, and that really doesn't include the Leafs. He might get more elsewhere but it won't be from the Leafs were are still rebuilding. And like it or not Ryan is perceived as negative value. And let's face it for whatever reason, Karlson has been poor this year.

Agree with you. Borgman to me is a long Leaf. And Leafs need to draft a centre. You know in 4 years...Kadri might be gone...time flies. And having Ryan for 3 full years at 3.5m, what a waste.
I won't even get into the cap next year when PF from this season and next should be included.

OK but I don't care where Ryan would fit on the Leafs, I am arguing opinions that said he would still be overpaid at 3.575 which doesn't make sense with the reality of the NHL market.

Perception and reality are 2 different things. I have watched almost every game Ryan has played and I have seen him make a ton of high skilled plays that sometimes got converted, sometimes not. He can still score but he is more a playmaker now with how many hand injuries he's had. He is also a very complete player when on his game, that's why he excelled last playoffs.

Last year, his mom passed away in the summer, had his first born child and suffered 5 injuries. He "only" had 25 pts in 62 games (0.4 PPG) but in several games he left early in the game, that's why he ended up with an average TOI/GP of only 15:32, which is closer to 3rd line minutes than 1st line minutes.

Let's also not forget that it was Guy Boucher and his very complex system first year. The system that made Brassard (coming from NY as a 60 pts Center) end up with a whooping 39 pts.

This year, same story as he been out of the line-up because of injury already 5 times but he has a better PPG of 0.51. I don't know if you realize how hard it is to produce in the NHL when you are in and out of the line-up with injuries a lot of times.

Note : Ryan can also effectively play LW, as he was part as one of the best lines in the league (Ryan-Brassard-Stone) before he got injured after 8 games (IIRC).

What pieces do you expect? Only contenders will be bidding, and zero chance they give up too young guys for 1+ year of Karlsson. Plus, this is a salary dump by cheapskate Melnyk. The6 want futures and young cheap players. Honest question, are you expecting 4 firsts for him? Dreaming.

I'd want the kind of pieces you get when trading a franchise player, which happen to be a generational D-man

If it were to happen (which I doubt), I really really doubt it happens before the trade deadline. More chances that it would happen at the draft.

Seriously, if Matthews has a first decade in the NHL close as good as Karlsson and is the same situation (need a new contract), would you take :

Johnny Oduya (Polák, R.)
Mike Condon (Pickard, C.)
Francis Perron (Bracco, J.)
Fredrik Claesson (Borgman, A.)
Nick Paul (Leivo, J.)
20XX 1st round pick (OTT)
20XX 2nd round pick (OTT)
20XX 2nd round pick (OTT)

Note : these picks should all be late picks.

Seriously, what pieces would you expect? lol

You can not compare those 2, are you crazy? Matthews under team control for 4 years guaranteed. Karlsson wants out. You still didn’t answer the question (unsurprisingly). If Karlsson is being traded, what do you think theyd get? Above and beyond the decent picks and prospects here. Actual answer please. Remember that no bad team is trading for him (10 team no trade list will see to that), and Ottawa won’t age back big salaries, and no contender trades for him for 1 year with an elite young player. So what do you expect?

uh... lol please read again and come back to me.

You know what "IF" means? Right?

So to answer your question, no I am not crazy...

Note : And sorry I am not going to make a deep research in what teams need and have to dispose to find you names. Last year, I was thinking about Schefeile + Trouba or Lindholm + Rakell but now it's too late and situations/values have changed. I was not necessarily looking to trade Karlsson, but if I had to, that would have been duos I was interested in.

Oh, and I also have to add because it looks like you are unaware of that... Ottawa isn't going to trade Karlsson before the deadline. IF they were to trade him, they'd wait in the summer where an extension could be in place and then trade him for his full value. Hockey management basics.

EDIT : lol I just noticed... "Karlsson wants out". Do you have a source for that?

You ask if I saw ‘if’? Did you see my start? Local reporters say that willing to trade K IF take Ryan. Whole point of exercise was that point. And yes, he wants out. I live in the valley and everybody knows/reports he is not re-signing. League’s worst ownership. He will not be there in 19/20 season. As for hockey management basics, when was the last sign and trade? Ever happen? Maybe rarely. This isn’t the NBA. So actual hockey management basics says get what you can get the most. Which is this trade deadline for 2 playoff runs. Otherwise my points stand. NTC means not going to a bad team, and contenders won’t blow up team for 1+ year of K. Middling teams might, but very few middling teams with anything worthwhile. I personally think they should trade him without Ryan. They’d get way more. Maybe 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a few top prospects (ex 1sts/2nds). But this summer that goes well down. Still the no trade list and only 1 playoff run for contenders.

You misread... You're talking about things that I don't care about. I didn't post about that at all lol

If you want to continue, read again and come back when you understand what I said

How’d the Sens do? In a trade where they didn’t get rid of the Ryan deal so should have gotten a killing? Did they get a killing? I think this deal here would have been way better. Unless the 1 kid they got turns into a superstar, which from what I’ve read he’ll be lucky to top out on the 2nd line.

wow nice bump 8 months later, did you bookmark this or what? lol

Problem in Ottawa is that Melnyk is a giant obstacle, he simply refuses to spend money. The Sens payroll this season is about 56 M$, it's less than the freaking Coyotes.

There is a ton of reasons why Karlsson got traded but I think the main reasons is because Melnyk doesn't like Karlsson now and certainly didn't want to give him a huge contract with heavy bonuses that would cover EK in case of a lockout. Karlsson has been very vocal that he wanted to stay (despite that YOU said that he wanted out) but Melnyk decided otherwise. And the worse thing is that Melnyk ordered his inexperienced cheap GM (and out of his league, he's a scout) to trade Karlsson BEFORE training camp. Putting a deadline like this was really bad as Dorion didn't find a trade partner that EK was ready to agree with on a long term extension. And no team would have given a major haul for EK as a possible rental, the risk is way too high.

That being said, I still take the Sharks return by a country mile. Like seriously it's not even close, everyone who knows hockey would tell you the same. I'll get it in value order for you :

1) 2018 1st round pick (TOR) 25th OA vs 2019 OR 2020 1st round pick (SJ) : I prefer the odds of that SJ pick, particularly in 2020 if they miss the playoffs. Or even this year if they miss the playoffs, could be in the lotto. Sens could hit a homerun with that pick, even if it doesn't end that high (see Karlsson, Chabot, etc)

2) Jeremy Bracco vs Rudolf Balcers : Both players are the same age. Balcers just had a very impressive rookie season in the AHL, he was ranked Sharks 2nd best prospect after Merkley. Bracco played on a much better team, Balcers lead his team in scoring as a rookie by 10 pts...

3) Andreas Borgman vs Josh Norris : taking the 2017 19th OA pick here

4) Josh Leivo vs Chris Tierney : Leivo is 1 year older and still doesn't have a full NHL season under his belt. TIerney has 3...

5) 2018 2nd round pick (TOR) 56th OA vs 2019 2nd round pick (highest between SJ/Florida) : I prefer the odds of that Panthers/Sharks pick.

6) Roman Polák vs Dylan DeMelo : DeMelo might just be a 3rd pairing D-man but he is younger and Polak was UFA anyway. DeMelo was the least valuable piece in the Sharks return.

7) Calvin Pickard vs nothing : Pickard just went unclaimed on waivers, he has no trade value.

n/a) 2019 2nd round pick (TOR) vs conditionals : impossible to tell right now but there's 2 conditions where the Sens could end up with another 1st

Also, retaining Ryan at 50% to trade him is useless. He is still a good player, just way overpaid. People wouldn't complain much if he was making like before 5.1 per year. He had monster playoffs in 2017 and despite another injury plagued season, he had a 0.53 PPG last year. I'm assuming you're an Oilers fan, do you realize that it would have been the 4th best pace on the Oilers last year after McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH? If the Sens were to trade him by retaining 50%, then they can just trade him on his own and even get an asset or two. Ryan at 3.625 would be on a very good contract.

You said that your proposed deal "would have been way better". I'd like to see a reasoning for that lol

My deal included taking Ryan. So a comparable deal with a much worse return for Toronto. But also, pickard just got claimed like yesterday. So not zero value. And while all of those players from SJ have potential, if you think even one is likely to ever be a 1st line player you're dreing. Well, on any decent team. None of these prospects are top 10 in most systems. But either way, you said my proposed deal was wildly low balling. Yet it's unarguably (by sane people) at least close to what they got. But included Ryan, which is a huge deal. Mediocre player on huge hit. So instead of just sheepishly admitting you were wrong to be such a stuck up know it all, you are trying to continue arguing Ottawa got a great deal. Please show me anybody outside Ottawa who think they got a decent return. Actual hockey people/reporters. Not internet know it all's.

Your deal included taking Ryan BUT with 3 575 000$ retained, so that would make Ryan having a 3 675 000$ cap hit, hardly a crippling deal. You might think that Ryan is pure total cap dump but he is not, he is just significantly overpaid.

In his first 3 years in Ottawa, he averaged a 0.69 PPG, so among forwards who played at least 50% of their team's games (123 games), only 65 forwards have outpaced him. It means that's slightly below average 1st line production (30 teams x 3 first line forwards on average = 90)

Now the problem is the last 2 seasons where he has been plagued by injuries. You have to look at a player's PPG because injuries are out of his control. If not, it would be like saying that Stamkos was overpaid in 2016-17 because he only had 20 pts.

In the last 2 years, he averaged a 0.47 PPG, so among forwards who played at least 50% of their team's games (82 games), 178 forwards have outpaced him (in total, 369 forwards have played 82 games or more), which means it's right at the cut between 2nd line production and 3rd line production. It isn't great but it doesn't make a player completely useless. Ryan is a skill/finesse player that is not the toughest or the fastest but that will make high skilled plays to contribute to his team (exhibit : see playoffs 2017, he was a total monster in those playoffs, 15 pts in 19 pts but many clutch plays including GWG and primary assists)

Veteran forwards on UFA years averaging around a 0.50 PPG and making 3 675 000$ per year don't have negative value like you seem to think. That's the type of money that Colin Wilson, Andrew Shaw, Patrik Berglund, Darren Helm, Cody Eakin, Matt Beleskey, Boone Jenner, Cal Clutterbuck, Vladimír Sobotka, Bryan Rust, Eric Staal, Lars Eller, Casey Cizikas, Michael Grabner and Jamie McGinn make. These are all players that Ryan is better than, except Eric Staal who was on a huge deal and then got bought out because they thought he was done. Then he rebounded and is probably the biggest contract steal of the league now.

Conclusion : you're not lowering the Senators package by adding Ryan at 50%

Now for the rest...

Ok so Pickard got claimed? Big deal! My mistake though, still doesn't change the fact that he had no value or very little value (if you really want). Anyway, since Polak was UFA, then put Pickard in there for DeMelo. That being said, DeMelo has been a pleasant surprise for the Sens so far.

I'm not "dreing", I never said I was expecting any of those pieces to end up as a 1st liner, where did I say that? And since the Sens prospect pool is actually pretty good and deep, it seems that HF Sens don't see them in our top-10 (for now). That has nothing to do with the discussion though as we were comparing your proposal vs the one the Sens got from the Sharks, not where those prospects fit in any pool. Actually, Balcers was 2nd and Norris was 4th on the Sharks pool (https://lastwordonhockey.com/2018/08/09/san-jose-sharks-prospects/), but yeah, they don't make the Sens Top-10.

Now, the fact that you're reverting back with weak childish insults (implying that I might not be among "sane people", "such a stuck up know it all" etc) shows how clearly outmatched you are in this discussion. I never argued that "Ottawa got a great deal" and yet you've lost track of the own debate you initiated... which was comparing your proposal vs the actual return. You really don't sound like the smartest peanut in the turd, so I'd be wary before insulting people.

OK just so you know I went to a very busy hockey forum that has been running for 2 decades and I have asked Sens fans which package they would take, the Sharks one or the one you proposed. Funny but the votes were 17-0 in favor of the Sharks package before it got closed for being lopsided, and don't worry Sens fans have been "incendiary" regarding the Sens management and particularly Melnyk. But it looks like they still take the Sharks package easily, here are some comments :


"Even without the vomit-inducing thought of EK playing for the Leafuses, I would take the actual package 10 times out of 10."

"I'll be honest, as much as I think the Sharks package was bad... it's significantly better than that garbage hypothetical package from Toronto."

"Tiereny is better than anyone in that package. And Balcers is a better prospect than anyone in that package."

"That’s a sad package, especially considering it would be an in-division trade."

"That Toronto offer is horrific. San Jose’s all the way by comparison."



So my little little dude, before calling people "stuck up know it all" and alluding that they might not be sane, take it easy because you look like an absolute tool right here.