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Real $$ Structure - Matthews @ 8M, Marner/Nylander @6M

Created by: Goulet
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 11, 2018
Published: Mar. 12, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Forget Edm & Buf as comparables, their moves aren't designed to build a perrenial contender. Think TB and Nashville.

Our players aren't in that super elite group yet and won't get paid as such. Crosby, Malkin, OV, P Kane, Kucherov...the list goes on.

Matthews comparables - Tavares, Toews, Getzlaf, Kopitar, Seguin. Stamkos isn't a comparable yet either, his numbers were too good early on.
Marner/Nylander - Wheeler, Eberle, Stone, Oshie

5 year deals are a common theme with this type of player coming out of their ELC and if we look at the value driven contracts current Leaf management has given to Andersen, Kadri, Rielly, and Gardiner, expecting bigger term and money because a couple of other GM's are just winging it seems a little off course.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$1,000,000
3$1,000,000
3$1,000,000
2$1,000,000
4$2,500,000
6$6,000,000
6$6,000,000
6$8,000,000
3$850,000
3$850,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$5,500,000
Centre, 2nd line
1$6,500,000
Scoring winger, 2nd line
1$6,000,000
Forward, 13th
1$1,000,000
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$82,000,000$74,176,666$0$400,000$7,823,334
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$700,000$700,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
UFA - 5
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW
UFA - 5
Scoring winger, 2nd line
$6,000,000$6,000,000
Centre, 2nd line
$6,500,000$6,500,000
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW
UFA - 3
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$850,000$850,000
C, LW, RW
RFA
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Forward, 13th
$1,000,000$1,000,000
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
UFA - 1
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LD
UFA - 4
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 5
$850,000$850,000
G
UFA - 1
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 3
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

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Mar. 12, 2018 at 12:18 p.m.
#1
Caps fan idk why
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trade the caps for backstrom he'd fit that 2nd line center position.......
Mar. 12, 2018 at 12:21 p.m.
#2
LobbysOilers
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u dont actually believe matthews is signing for 8M and Nylander signs for 6 do you?
Mar. 12, 2018 at 12:23 p.m.
#3
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8M for Matthews isn't bad but would want 10M x8y.
OK for Nylander & Marner...
JVR & Bozak are OUT so who do you see filling these 2 spots?
Kapanen + Borgman + 1st for Backstrom?
and I would resign JVR 5yx6M
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:02 p.m.
#4
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I think that both Marner and Nylander get at least $6.5 million per and Matthews closer to $12 million per. $8 million for Matthews is way too low. Eichel $10 million McDavid $12.5 million. Matthews should at least be in Eichel territory.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:26 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
trade the caps for backstrom he'd fit that 2nd line center position.......


Sure...what do you want?
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:28 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Larkinisking
I think that both Marner and Nylander get at least $6.5 million per and Matthews closer to $12 million per. $8 million for Matthews is way too low. Eichel $10 million McDavid $12.5 million. Matthews should at least be in Eichel territory.


Eichel is significantly overpaid on a bad team, he is the minority comparable. And McDavid is like using Crosby as a comparable, it's not fair to Matthews who isn't in the league...yet.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:30 p.m.
#7
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Point is, players don't have sign contracts that are offered by the their teams. Lowball players and they will just be UFAs in four years after their ELCs. Players and agents will be contracts given out in Edmonton and Buffalo, and even Nashville had 7.8m Weber contract years ago.
Don't know if the Leafs will have the cap to sign that UFA centre and LW, might have to get cheaper guys. Think you also lowballed some of those cheaper RFAs
I'm sure Nylander and Marner will be looking in Pasta territory and Matthews in Eichel range.
Gardiner, just don't see him as long term Leaf.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:30 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Goulet
Sure...what do you want?


if caps do a full rebuild

picks and probably a top prospect and carrick
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:30 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: LobbysOilers
u dont actually believe matthews is signing for 8M and Nylander signs for 6 do you?


I believe if the team wants to win and not just have a few star players then they have to stick to a structure and not use mistakes made by other GM's as a guideline for their own signings.

How many people thought Kadri would sign for only 4.5M?
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:31 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: Goulet
Eichel is significantly overpaid on a bad team, he is the minority comparable. And McDavid is like using Crosby as a comparable, it's not fair to Matthews who isn't in the league...yet.


crosby took 8.7million thats a massive discount also considering he ccould have made 10 mil
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:39 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: palhal
Point is, players don't have sign contracts that are offered by the their teams. Lowball players and they will just be UFAs in four years after their ELCs. Players and agents will be contracts given out in Edmonton and Buffalo, and even Nashville had 7.8m Weber contract years ago.
Don't know if the Leafs will have the cap to sign that UFA centre and LW, might have to get cheaper guys. Think you also lowballed some of those cheaper RFAs
I'm sure Nylander and Marner will be looking in Pasta territory and Matthews in Eichel range.
Gardiner, just don't see him as long term Leaf.


Tavares, Toews, Getzlaf, Seguin, Carter, MacKinnon, Hall, Barkov, and P Kane all signed 5 or 6 year deals coming out of their Elc's in the 5M-6M per range. Those are deals that entice the player to continue to grow.

Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, and Stamkos signed bigger deals but they're in a different category.

Eichel and Draisaitl made no sense, Pastarnak scored more goals than either Nylander and Marner and sits at 6.66M.

I get that we all wear Leaf coloured glasses but the reality is that when you look at the majority of the actual comparables, the salaries should be lower than we all think.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:39 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
crosby took 8.7million thats a massive discount also considering he ccould have made 10 mil


He also loves the number 87... and winning
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:40 p.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
if caps do a full rebuild

picks and probably a top prospect and carrick


Hard to say no to that
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:45 p.m.
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Quoting: Goulet
He also loves the number 87... and winning


yeah i mean i can matthews enjoying the culture and winning could take a discount
Mar. 12, 2018 at 1:56 p.m.
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Quoting: Goulet
He also loves the number 87... and winning


Yea but he signed the contract for the 2013/14 and Matthews new deal will start in 2019/20. The cap in 2013/14 was 60m. So you point is? Most teams seems to want to lock up their start early now, instead of paying them 10.5m at age 31 like some organization are doing.
Hey as a Leaf I would love to see stars taking a so called discount, just saying the players may/may not have any reason to do it.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:05 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Yea but he signed the contract for the 2013/14 and Matthews new deal will start in 2019/20. The cap in 2013/14 was 60m. So you point is? Most teams seems to want to lock up their start early now, instead of paying them 10.5m at age 31 like some organization are doing.
Hey as a Leaf I would love to see stars taking a so called discount, just saying the players may/may not have any reason to do it.

When you're pumping out 100+ point seasons you get special treatment.
The players have all the reason to do it because they have no choice. Here is their market value, take it or leave it. Think you're a star? Prove it. Marner and Nylander have done nothing to show they're worth 7M x 8 years and they don't get to write their own cheques yet.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:08 p.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
yeah i mean i can matthews enjoying the culture and winning could take a discount


Someone ask Eichel how happy he is in Buffalo. The Lambo and the nice house are cool but when you hate going to the rink...is that extra mill or two worth it?

Wait till Eichel is watching Matthews with Cup driving down Yonge street during the parade. See how much he hates buffalo then.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:09 p.m.
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Connor
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Matthews comparibles: McDavid, Eichel, Schiefele
Based on his two way play and point production you can confidently say that he won’t make less than Eichel. Expect 10-12 max term.

Nylander comparables: Pastrnak, Ehlers, Mackinnon
Expect him to make 6-7mil long term

Marner comparables: Pastnrak, Ehlers, Eberle, Niederreiter. The same or slightly less then Nylander expect 5.5-7 long term
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:12 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Yea but he signed the contract for the 2013/14 and Matthews new deal will start in 2019/20. The cap in 2013/14 was 60m. So you point is? Most teams seems to want to lock up their start early now, instead of paying them 10.5m at age 31 like some organization are doing.
Hey as a Leaf I would love to see stars taking a so called discount, just saying the players may/may not have any reason to do it.


And look at what happens as soon as those big deals kick in. They can't make the playoffs. Not that those 2 didn't earn their money, they did, but Chicago was competitive when their cap hits were 6.3M
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:22 p.m.
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Quoting: Goulet
When you're pumping out 100+ point seasons you get special treatment.
The players have all the reason to do it because they have no choice. Here is their market value, take it or leave it. Think you're a star? Prove it. Marner and Nylander have done nothing to show they're worth 7M x 8 years and they don't get to write their own cheques yet.


I'm sorry Goulet if you don't get how important Nylander and Goulet are to the Leafs, fine. Again you have a definition of "market value" which may or may not be true. By this take or leave it? OK players can leave it prove it, but the also have the option of being UFAs four years after their ELCs expire. As a result most teams now are signing there young stars long term.
Isn't that that the most stupid comparison Cup between Eichel and Mathews? They were drafted in different years. But it wasn't just a mill or two. He might have made 30m in four years then hit free agency. I agree with you though, Eichel has "signers regret" but as young man, it's tough to turn down 80m. Even more interesting is Carey Price who had built up financial wealth before signing his last extension for 84m. He looks like doesn't want to be his current team either.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:24 p.m.
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Quoting: ConnorMcSchulenberg
Matthews comparibles: McDavid, Eichel, Schiefele
Based on his two way play and point production you can confidently say that he won’t make less than Eichel. Expect 10-12 max term.

Nylander comparables: Pastrnak, Ehlers, Mackinnon
Expect him to make 6-7mil long term

Marner comparables: Pastnrak, Ehlers, Eberle, Niederreiter. The same or slightly less then Nylander expect 5.5-7 long term


McDavid is not a comparable aside from draft position.

Ehlers makes sense. Pastrnak - 34 goals and 70 points last year...not a comparable to either player. Like comparing McDavid and his 100 points to Matthews.

We want that production from our guys but it's not there yet. Marner and Eberle may be decent comparables although Eberle is more of a goal scorer.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:24 p.m.
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Quoting: Goulet
And look at what happens as soon as those big deals kick in. They can't make the playoffs. Not that those 2 didn't earn their money, they did, but Chicago was competitive when their cap hits were 6.3M


I wasn't even talking about Kane and Toews were signed earlier than 31. I was talking about Carey Price whose new contracts kicks in when he's 31.
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:25 p.m.
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Quoting: ConnorMcSchulenberg
Matthews comparibles: McDavid, Eichel, Schiefele
Based on his two way play and point production you can confidently say that he won’t make less than Eichel. Expect 10-12 max term.

Nylander comparables: Pastrnak, Ehlers, Mackinnon
Expect him to make 6-7mil long term

Marner comparables: Pastnrak, Ehlers, Eberle, Niederreiter. The same or slightly less then Nylander expect 5.5-7 long term


These figures are the most reasonable projection I've seen.

Quoting: palhal
Yea but he signed the contract for the 2013/14 and Matthews new deal will start in 2019/20. The cap in 2013/14 was 60m.



This is exactly what I thought when I first read the post too. If Crosby was being re-signed right now he'd be at $11m-$12m easy. Factor about a 33% hike in the cap since 13-14 and extrapolate that to salaries signed then. $8.7 turns into $11.5m+
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:31 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
I'm sorry Goulet if you don't get how important Nylander and Goulet are to the Leafs, fine. Again you have a definition of "market value" which may or may not be true. By this take or leave it? OK players can leave it prove it, but the also have the option of being UFAs four years after their ELCs expire. As a result most teams now are signing there young stars long term.
Isn't that that the most stupid comparison Cup between Eichel and Mathews? They were drafted in different years. But it wasn't just a mill or two. He might have made 30m in four years then hit free agency. I agree with you though, Eichel has "signers regret" but as young man, it's tough to turn down 80m. Even more interesting is Carey Price who had built up financial wealth before signing his last extension for 84m. He looks like doesn't want to be his current team either.


I'm not saying these guys aren't important, they are. I'm saying winning is more important and you can't do that if you're paying based on potential and having a sub par supporting cast.

I don't blame players for their contracts, I'd have signed Eichel deal too but it's hard to support the argument that he was worth it at that moment in time. It may have a detrimental effect to his career.

I believe in term if it brings the cap hit down which is why I used Nashville and Tampa as examples. Zaitsev signed a 7 year deal with a great cap hit, Brown and Hyman got term, as did Rielly and Andersen. Are any of them overpaid?
Mar. 12, 2018 at 2:32 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: ConnorMcSchulenberg
Matthews comparibles: McDavid, Eichel, Schiefele
Based on his two way play and point production you can confidently say that he won’t make less than Eichel. Expect 10-12 max term.

Nylander comparables: Pastrnak, Ehlers, Mackinnon
Expect him to make 6-7mil long term

Marner comparables: Pastnrak, Ehlers, Eberle, Niederreiter. The same or slightly less then Nylander expect 5.5-7 long term


I think player/agent and their teams have to look at what the cap is projected to be. For instance Eberle signed years ago for 6m so Marner who deal won't kick till 2019/20 should expect more.
I like the Nylander comparison to Pastrnak. It's only a year about in signing. Pasta signs for 6.67m. yea he has better numbers but he did play with near Hart winners Marchand and Bergeron. Last year Nylander played with two rookies. As you suggest the Eichel comparison is evident. 11m seems about right.
 
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