Chiarelli's put the Oilers in a bad spot by accumulating bad contracts during McDavid's ELC years. Now the team isn't in a spot where it can viably compete for a Stanley Cup and lacks prospects graduating from the AHL. The cupboards are bare and the team is mediocre.
By moving every immediately-expendable piece and, unfortunately Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, at the 2018 draft, I've pulled in 6 additional picks in a relatively deep draft year. The 2019 2nd and 3rd Round picks are going to be needed (at minimum) to move Sekera and Russell without retention next July, therefore it's vital for the team to do effectively two years' worth of drafting this June. The aim was to match skill and organizational need based on position and how soon some current prospects may be graduating.
Moving RNH accomplishes two very important things for this team: bring in two more first-round prospects AND free up John Carlson money. I don't actively want to trade him, but if the return is (in theory) two prospects and the cash to sign a Norris-caliber RHD, I can't say no to that. Go as high as $7.65M on Carlson if need be.
I consider this a transition year as the aim isn't to buy at the deadline and become a legitimate contender. If the Oilers manage a deep run, then I'm perfectly fine with that, but the roster isn't currently set up for long-term success. Being able to dump Sekera and Russell next year, adding Lagesson and Dobson to the back end, replacing Rattie with Yamamoto, and finding effective and reasonably-priced UFAs to fill the LW and Backup positions gives Edmonton a better shot at long-term success.
In order to free up some cap space next season, two trades need to happen at next year's draft:
1. (LD) Andrej Sekera + 2019 2nd Round Pick -> VGK for 2019 5th Round Pick (Conditional on which is lower between VGK/MON)
2. (LD) Kris Russell + 2019 3rd Round Pick -> VAN for 2019 5th Round Pick
Both teams have the cap space, roster spots, and need for picks (I'm expecting Vegas to fall hard next season, and I think McPhee might be as well seeing how few of his 2019 picks got moved). Both players should be willing to waive their NMCs two weeks early.
Caps easily resign Carlson at that deal. Only way Caps don't resign him if he's asking for $8+ for 8 years. And even then, can't see Carlson going to EDM, he'd want to stay on the East coast. NJD, his hometownm, would easily get him. Think he'd only go to EDM if you threw a huge deal at him like $9M+
Caps easily resign Carlson at that deal. Only way Caps don't resign him if he's asking for $8+ for 8 years. And even then, can't see Carlson going to EDM, he'd want to stay on the East coast. NJD, his hometownm, would easily get him. Think he'd only go to EDM if you threw a huge deal at him like $9M+
I think there's an outside chance IF the Capitals don't win the cup (fwiw, I badly want them to win it). I've edited it with like the max offer they could afford to give him in terms of cash. I don't think he splits hairs over the extra $50k. Just a question of whether or not the rest of the UFAs take the pay cuts.
Quoting: Bluetomorrow83
Trading Nuge for 2 late firsts.. doesn't seem like smart move, especially when with the cap you saved you spent on a RHD then drafted bunch of RHD.
Trade Nuge to NYR get Pionk+ in return then you solve RHD and get more options and still have cap space saved
By the time Merkley is actually NHL-ready, Larsson's deal will have expired and I can't see any team re-upping a defensive, stay-at-home defender in 3 years. Not with how the game has progressed from offence from the blueline out. The team would be at an inherent disadvantage if they opted to keep a nigh-30 year-old Larsson when they could have Merkley in that slot instead. By the time Carlson's wheels fall off, Dobson will be the bonafide #1 on the team, and Merkley should be a legitimate top-4 option. I'm playing the long game with those picks, not looking for immediate help.
Plus, after the $2M cap hike next season, the near-$10M off the books via Russell/Sekera dumps and Vanek being replaced by Yamamoto, I'm not concerned about this team's money in the future. I ran an AGM to this about 3 or 4 days ago and had Karlsson at $10M next season instead of Carlson at under *8.5, and still had around $4M in space. Neither an immediate option nor the cap space is a huge issue.
-Not sure Dobson is still around at 10
-Carlson deal is a tad cheap but believable
-don't think NYR make that trade, they've committed to a youth core and will be signing Namestnikov for that 2C nuge role
-don't think Florida makes that trade either
-a note on the Vegas as a 'cap-donkey', I don't think they will be anymore. This offseason they will sign their core to long term deals and the space will evaporate. W Karlsson, Theodore, Neal, Colin Miller, and Perron are the big ones, then next season basically the rest of their team hits free agency.
Overall a good direction for the team, I like Merkley a lot but he may also not be around at 26. Quick skating offensive RHD won't be coming cheap this year I don't think...
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