Quoting: ekpaul87
Correct, only a 15-20% chance of getting Hughes, but even if you end up with a pick in the 2 through 5 range, you're still getting a very good or great player, so it isn't like missing Hughes means you get nothing. That's why the price is Stone.
Personally, if I was Sakic, I would offer sheet Stone for 5 years at $8.1M per, so the compensation would be Colorado's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 2019, but would almost guarantee that Ottawa pick to be top 5. That additional leverage is why I wouldn't let Dorion off the hook if I was Sakic.
Except that Ottawa still likely matches that. He's projected in the $7.5 to $8M range. And the whole "Melnyk won't pay for it" thing is blown out of proportion. He paid for Ryan, and Stone has delivered here in Ottawa more than Ryan ever has. He greenlit Phaneuf, Gaborik, MacArthur, Anderson and Hoffman's contracts. Overpaying Smith and Pageau too. I can understand when it comes to Karlsson and potentially $12M, but Stone gets matched at $8.1M. Going to have to go into the next compensation bracket to even be considered. Not to mention if he's offered 8 years at $7.5M with the Sens (which is the expected contract) or 5 years at $8.1M, it's not really enticing enough to make the switch to the Avs.
And yes, sure, it's still likely a top 5 pick but you hope top 5 picks become Hoffman type players with Hoffman type numbers; Stone (a PPG player you can build your team around that is just as strong in his own end as the other, leadership qualities, completely well rounded) is what you hope your 1st OA picks become, really. Jack Hughes is the only part of that equation that makes it not worth it because he is likely to be a home run pick better than anybody who could possibly be involved in this trade. Dach, Newhook, Krebs, Kakko, York, etc... You'd be more or less just speeding up their development by exchanging them for Hoffman as they project to be the same caliber of player. None of them project to be Mark Stone's level. Why trade Mark Stone for a Mike Hoffman?