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Pinto

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Jun. 20, 2017
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Ottawa Senators
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19 at 2:24 p.m.
Thread: next year
I'm not going to clown the Korpisalo trade (even if I don't think it actually gets done - Murray had years of success and proof of being a starter compared to Korpisalo's complete lack of talent so it's not comparable), I'm instead going to clown the Gibson one.

For starters, that's an excessively high price. Goalies traditionally don't fetch a lot on the market; Darcy Kuemper, coming off superb seasons with Arizona, fetched a 1st, 3rd and Connor Timmins. That's potentially the best goalie to have been traded in a while, and he got a package that is at best similar to what you've proposed here. In comparison, Gibson's an expensive, washed up, rapidly declining goaltender who has been below average for multiple years... and your trade proposes a 1st, two of Ottawa's best prospects, and a 4th for him with only slight retention. Absolutely not, and if Staios made that trade he would and should be fired on the spot.

To go even further though, Meriläinen is probably undisputedly Ottawa's only hope at a goalie of the future, so I can't see them moving him unless it's for a stable and secure starter that they can trust, not just more of the same (declining or unproven trash), so essentially barring a significant return that isn't the corpse of John Gibson. Järventie is the only prospect in the entirety of Ottawa's system with top 9 upside, so he's also unlikely to go... barring a significant return that isn't the corpse of John Gibson. Given that these two are at the top of Ottawa's prospect pool, it's pretty apparent they're in desperate need of solid drafting, and so giving up MORE 1sts is excessive... once again, barring a significant return that isn't the corpse of John Gibson.

Otherwise, I think Chychrun for Liljegren is reasonable in a vacuum, but given their contract statuses, I'm not sure Toronto would consider a move like that. They know what they have in Liljegren.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 8 at 11:55 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25 at 3:55 p.m.
Thread: question for sens fans
Echoing other comments here but the season would be a failure given the expectations, but it'd be hard to call the year anything but a success if they (1) managed to remove the DJ Smith stink that had begun to fester and poison the team, (2) build new habits and systems that suggest better potential for the future, and (3) walk away with a high draft pick in a strong draft to build what is a depleted prospect pool after Dorion squandered several valuable assets.

The Sens under Dorion tried to rush the rebuild by trading high picks for win-now players that didn't fit the team's needs, but the Sens under Staios took too long to respond and left DJ in for too long. The approach they're taking now is the right level of patience, so while the season is a failure because they should have been in the mix at the very least, it's encouraging to know they're back on track.

If this same conversation is being held at this time next year, the rebuild has no choice but to be considered a complete failure.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 4, 2022 at 11:36 a.m.
Thread: Pinto 1C after being our best player in preseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Canucks123</b></div><div>Is pinto really THAT good
who is he comparable to
havent been paying attention tbh</div></div>

He plays a lot like Ryan Hartman, imo, to give you a more realistic comparison.

Pinto's just good across the board at everything; his biggest weakness is his skating, but it's not even bad it's just not especially explosive. His vision is outstanding, so when you take someone with all the tools - a sturdy body, great stickwork, a fantastic shot, excellent passing - and you pair it with his IQ, he's got the upside to be a special player. I think his lower comparable is Mike Fisher-esque, a reliable all-zones middle 6 C who can do whatever you ask of him and put up ~45 points. It's hard not to look at someone like Bergeron as his upper comparable because they play such a similar game, but that's primarily a stylistic comparison. I think his ceiling is more like a ROR type, but <em>a lot</em> of things have to go right for that.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 10, 2022 at 5:11 p.m.
Thread: Avs Next Year Simple and Effective Offseason
Ottawa passes.

Andrew Copp had 100 P in 174 GP (0.57 PPG, 47 pts in 82 gp) in the three years prior to being traded to New York as a post-deadline rental for Barron, a cond. 2nd that can become a 1st and another 2nd. Connor Brown has 117 P in 191 GP (0.61 PPG, 50 pts in 82 gp) in the last three years with Ottawa. He has a full year on his deal at $3.6M (or $1.8M if they retain 50% like here).

If this were to happen in the offseason, it'll take more than this. An offseason trade would give a full year of Brown, whereas only a couple months of Copp got a similarish quality prospect and better picks. Simply, Compher doesn't hold as much value to the Sens as he's being given here. They have too many of him.

It's hard because Colorado doesn't have many picks, but I imagine any trade for Brown would look something like Copp's but better as he's a better player and he'd have more time on his deal. The Sens probably expect a 1st in there, along with another decent pick (2nd or 3rd) and a decent prospect (like Barron was/is).
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 9, 2021 at 1:49 p.m.
Thread: TDL Acquisition
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yycofred</b></div><div>Fantastic target for the Flames I think they would have a really really hard time prying him out of there, your value is probably really clove but I think they would want a better prospect.</div></div>

Yeah, I think they'd expect a better prospect.

Blake Coleman had 94 P in 237 GP with New Jersey, but was coming off 31 P in 57 GP when he was traded for a 1st and Nolan Foote (a guy who had just been selected in the 1st the year before). He was signed for another year at $1.8M. Connor Brown has 91 P in 147 GP with Ottawa, and is currently at 13 P in 20 GP. He can be retained down to $1.8M for another year.

Even further than that, you have Pageau for a 1st and 2nd and Tatar for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, both of which were fairly recent.

The Sens should and will ask for something very similar, likely a 1st + very good prospect (Zary, Coronato, Pelletier) + potentially more.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 6, 2021 at 3:22 p.m.
Thread: do we trade guys out at the TDL this year or what
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Until then, trading Brown and Paul is counter productive in terms of making this team competitive tomorrow. "Futures" are nice but we are loaded with them and late 1st round picks and 2nd round picks won't help for years...</div></div>

Is it really though?

Paul has never scored more than 20 points (&lt;30 point pace) and is currently having a very rough year both offensively (0.18 PPG) and defensively (2.5 xGA/60, 3.79 GA/60). He also put up those points in previous seasons whilst having generous deployment alongside solid linemates (top 5 through 2019-2021 are Connor Brown, Colin White, Evgeni Dadonov, Chris Tierney and JG Pageau). As he drops in responsibility once the team gets better, he looks to drop in points too. After all, he puts up 0.8 P/60 this year at 5v5 while playing 17 minutes total a game. Watch when he drops to 13 minutes. And I could go on and on about how he's not, nor should be, a center but I digress. Nick Paul is a bottom 6 winger who is best suited to play as a 4LW on a good team. So if a team is willing to treat him like a Barclay Goodrow and wants to overpay for him, by all means: bye Nick!

Connor Brown's a bit different as he's actually a great player who produces and does well defensively. He would be awesome to have on our third line when the team is contending. That being said, he's coming up to the end of his deal and has had three straight seasons of ~50 point paces and percentage benders. We gave Brady $8.2M for three straight seasons of 50 point paces, so what is Brown going to ask for given he's actually competent defensively? Certainly not $8M, but even $5M is too much to give a 3rd liner. If he wants to sign a more realistic deal and comprehends that his point totals are a function of giving him more responsibility than he will ever have elsewhere or will have with the team in the next few years, then great. Otherwise, he's better sent out so he isn't lost for free.

You're right that 1st round picks and 2nd rounders aren't immediately helpful, but they can be repackaged into deals for pieces that serve the team well now and into the future without overpaying or overvaluing.

And besides, the team is still probably two years away from making real noise, if not longer.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 24, 2021 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread: Straightforward Retool Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>Considering that the 1st round pick is for 2024, Ottawa would accept if there's no lottery protection.

Although this trade makes even less sense for Vancouver.</div></div>

I disagree that Ottawa likes the look of that trade.

The Sens would probably love to get out of Murray's mistake of a deal, but they're in a worse position with this trade. Could consider Brännstrom + Abramov for a 1st and a 5th about even, so it's really a Murray for Myers deal. They add TM without losing Zaitsev, which means the right side is now Zub, Myers, Zaitsev... That's a yikes. They also are back in the hunt for a backup/1B goaltender if they move Murray out, because Forsberg is atrocious and Gustavsson shouldn't be rushed into huge starts just yet.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 19, 2021 at 6:12 p.m.
Thread: offseason
These Pettersson to Ottawa trades have been a thing for years, but they never made a ton of sense.

As it stands, the Sens' left side of the blueline by the end of this year projects to be something like Chabot - Sanderson - MDZ/Mete. I imagine there could be some movement on Mete and/or MDZ, but given they're not very good it's safer to assume they stay. There's simply no room.

Next year, Chabot and Sanderson are still the two top 4 LHD, MDZ has another year on his deal, Mete is an RFA who may return, and they're not going to want to pay Marcus' salary to have him on the 3rd pairing when they're already overpaying Zaitsev to try to play hockey. There's still no room.

If there was any Penguins D that the Sens would be interested in, it's Marino. He's exactly what they need to complete their top 4, but he's also likely untouchable for the Pens.
Forum: Fauteuil - DGNov. 17, 2021 at 3:25 p.m.
Thread: What I would love
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Holden I'm actually a fan of. He's a very solid defensive guy, he's just out of his depth trying to carry one of two useless RHD this season. He can't be the defensively responsible stay at home guy while also being the guy who needs to break the puck out, because 3 and 22 aren't able to do either. He looked excellent on the right side with Brannstrom in pre season, and I would be fairly confident with him as the mentor for Lassi Thomson, who absolutely deserves an extended look going forward.</div></div>

100% agreed. I'd also argue that MDZ has been better than expected, and while he's not free of faults, I'd much rather see him than Zaitsev or Brown. I think something like:

Chabot - Zub
Holden - Thomson
Mete - MDZ

Might be the best thing we can put together right now and it doesn't fill me with anxiety to look at. Thomson's looked good and while the stats don't really attest to that, I'd rather see him get the chance above the known awful commodity in Brown/Zaitsev.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2021 at 3:22 p.m.
Thread: Next years lineup realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Green4D4Again</b></div><div>That being said... a favorable buyout option is Colin White. 875k over the next 6 years (with a -625k in cap hit in year 3) isn't too horrible. The emergence of Paul as a 3rd line center has become a pleasant surprise.</div></div>

Okay but let's talk about this. I'll preface it by saying I'm a fan of White and think they should not buy him out, and that this will be long.

TL;DR - I'd disagree that Paul has emerged as any sort of reliable 3C, I'd argue he's been the opposite of a pleasant surprise this year, and I'd claim that White is better in just about every facet of the game.

Last year, Paul put up 20 P in 56 GP (0.36 PPG) playing 16:05 ATOI. At 5v5, he had 0.98 P/60. To dig further, he had 1.90 xGF/60 (but 2.05 GF/60) and 2.23 xGA/60 (but 2.29 GA/60). Those stats tell us that he was really bad at generating offense, and it showed, and he was really good at preventing opportunities, and it showed. He allowed 24 scoring chances against per 60 minutes. <em>This year</em> he has fallen off a cliff of sorts, and while it's not all his fault (that D is going to let anybody down), he's partly to blame for his results. He has 3 P in 15 GP playing 17:32 ATOI. At 5v5 he has 0.86 P/60. Digging further, he has 1.91 xGF/60 (but 1.71 GF/60) and 2.54 xGA/60 (but 3.99 GA/60!!!!!). To summarize that, it's suggesting he's scoring less and is somehow even worse offensively, and he's far far worse defensively letting in almost 4 goals per 60 minutes of play. Ouch. He's allowing 32 scoring chances against per 60 minutes while playing, so his defensive game has dropped off a bit. Again, some of that is on the goaltending and defenders, but it's also not entirely written off like that. Interestingly, he's playing at center this year after being almost exclusively a winger last year. Eye test, he looked spectacular last year and we all adored him. This year, he's been sort of iffy and has had good games and bad, but Twitter, here, HFBoards and Reddit have all been pointing out more bad games than good with him. He's not a 2C, and he's likely not a 3C either. He's a winger who has had a disappointing start to the season.

Now that's just half of the equation, because there's also White. Last year, White put up 18 P in 45 GP (0.40 PPG) playing 14:41 ATOI. At 5v5, he had 1.15 P/60. To dig further, he had 2.19 xGF/60 (but 2.10 GF/60) and 2.24 xGA/60 (but 2.62 GA/60). Those stats tells us that he was okay offensively and he played well defensively. He allowed 27 scoring chances against per 60 minutes. He also had the more important and difficult task of playing center on a line that faced a lot of defensive shutdown minutes so our other lines could feast a bit more. This is important because Paul played on the exact same line but as a winger with less responsibility. Amongst forwards who played 100+ minutes last year for the Sens, White lead the team in Corsi (Paul was 4th), was 3rd in SF% (Paul was 8th), was 6th in xGF% (Paul was 12th), and they were 11th (White) and 12th (Paul) in SCF%. Both had 12 defensive zone starts per 60 minutes and around 9 offensive zone starts per 60. Literally any stat you look at, they're either right around each other or White is clearly ahead. I think one of the biggest reasons people dismiss White is because of his contract, in which he's probably overpaid about $1-2M or so given his current play. If it wasn't for that, maybe people wouldn't immediately crap on his play because he's actually one of our best possession players and has been demonstrably better than Paul in most cases.

So having said all of that, I think White's the better player and I think Paul has shown this year that he's a very questionable center and would be better on the wing. Paul is 26, turning 27 in March, and White is 24, turning 25 in January. <em>Paul was White's age when he became an NHL regular</em>, whereas White has a fantastic season alongside Tkachuk under his belt followed by some inconsistencies when thrown around the lineup. Stick him at 3C and give him reliable linemates (like Formenton and Brown) and on an improved PP2 and see how he does then. Would have been this year if not for his injury, but the absolute worst thing to be done is to buy him out and watch him go kick butt elsewhere. Especially if it's in favour of overplaying Nick Paul at 3C.

And one last thing? White seems to be the glue for the team. He's widely loved by everybody in the room and they often use him as a joke punching bag (which he happily takes). He's tight with Brady, with Bath, with Chabot, with the entire core. Since being drafted, his leadership has been commended, and he was flagged at the draft as being a potential letter-wearer in the future. For a young team in need of leadership, he would not be the guy I'd be sending out.
Forum: Fauteuil - DGNov. 17, 2021 at 2:51 p.m.
Thread: What I would love
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>The defense this year has been drastically worse than last year and it's not close. The same basic roster, but outside of the big two they all got even worse</div></div>

We went from a starting roster of Chabot, Zaitsev, Wolanin, Coburn, Gudbranson and Brown last year to a starting roster of Chabot, Zaitsev, Mete, Holden, Zub and Brown this year. On paper, it seems like an improvement, but in practice it has been absolutely atrocious with the huge step back from Zaitsev, and all of Holden, Brown and Mete playing very poorly.

Wish they'd done more than take other teams' 7th D-men and thinking they'd be better in an increased role. Mete looked good last year, but he was a waiver wire claim and looks the part now (although he's been producing offensively which is nice). Brown was a nobody for Florida. Holden barely played for Vegas. MDZ had a decent year with Columbus but has been in and out of the press box through recent years. Put them all together and what does that spell? The absolute tire fire we watch every night.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2021 at 2:35 p.m.
Thread: nobody is fired
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>I wonder if Ottawa would do that

In the last 2 years of their respective contracts, Myers is owed 2 more millions... so doubt Melnyk would love that. But maybe this change of scenery would be benificial for both players</div></div>

Myers <em>is</em> the better player (particularly this year), although it is like comparing a bag of pucks to a taller bag of pucks. Vancouver gains the $1.5M in cap to get Boeser signed up, and Ottawa would improve on the player. It's a deal that could conceivably help both sides, although I think Vancouver does a little worse simply because watching Zaitsev every night is a punishment that never ends.

Would have to think upgrading from a #6-7 D to a #4-5D is worth the $2M more, and even Melnyk could acknowledge that. What I'd worry about is the extra $1.5M on the cap that adds to White's overpay, Murray's overpay, Tkachuk's overpay, etc etc etc. Don't have to worry about it now, but it quickly will become an issue.