Quoting: Green4D4Again
That being said... a favorable buyout option is Colin White. 875k over the next 6 years (with a -625k in cap hit in year 3) isn't too horrible. The emergence of Paul as a 3rd line center has become a pleasant surprise.
Okay but let's talk about this. I'll preface it by saying I'm a fan of White and think they should not buy him out, and that this will be long.
TL;DR - I'd disagree that Paul has emerged as any sort of reliable 3C, I'd argue he's been the opposite of a pleasant surprise this year, and I'd claim that White is better in just about every facet of the game.
Last year, Paul put up 20 P in 56 GP (0.36 PPG) playing 16:05 ATOI. At 5v5, he had 0.98 P/60. To dig further, he had 1.90 xGF/60 (but 2.05 GF/60) and 2.23 xGA/60 (but 2.29 GA/60). Those stats tell us that he was really bad at generating offense, and it showed, and he was really good at preventing opportunities, and it showed. He allowed 24 scoring chances against per 60 minutes.
This year he has fallen off a cliff of sorts, and while it's not all his fault (that D is going to let anybody down), he's partly to blame for his results. He has 3 P in 15 GP playing 17:32 ATOI. At 5v5 he has 0.86 P/60. Digging further, he has 1.91 xGF/60 (but 1.71 GF/60) and 2.54 xGA/60 (but 3.99 GA/60!!!!!). To summarize that, it's suggesting he's scoring less and is somehow even worse offensively, and he's far far worse defensively letting in almost 4 goals per 60 minutes of play. Ouch. He's allowing 32 scoring chances against per 60 minutes while playing, so his defensive game has dropped off a bit. Again, some of that is on the goaltending and defenders, but it's also not entirely written off like that. Interestingly, he's playing at center this year after being almost exclusively a winger last year. Eye test, he looked spectacular last year and we all adored him. This year, he's been sort of iffy and has had good games and bad, but Twitter, here, HFBoards and Reddit have all been pointing out more bad games than good with him. He's not a 2C, and he's likely not a 3C either. He's a winger who has had a disappointing start to the season.
Now that's just half of the equation, because there's also White. Last year, White put up 18 P in 45 GP (0.40 PPG) playing 14:41 ATOI. At 5v5, he had 1.15 P/60. To dig further, he had 2.19 xGF/60 (but 2.10 GF/60) and 2.24 xGA/60 (but 2.62 GA/60). Those stats tells us that he was okay offensively and he played well defensively. He allowed 27 scoring chances against per 60 minutes. He also had the more important and difficult task of playing center on a line that faced a lot of defensive shutdown minutes so our other lines could feast a bit more. This is important because Paul played on the exact same line but as a winger with less responsibility. Amongst forwards who played 100+ minutes last year for the Sens, White lead the team in Corsi (Paul was 4th), was 3rd in SF% (Paul was 8th), was 6th in xGF% (Paul was 12th), and they were 11th (White) and 12th (Paul) in SCF%. Both had 12 defensive zone starts per 60 minutes and around 9 offensive zone starts per 60. Literally any stat you look at, they're either right around each other or White is clearly ahead. I think one of the biggest reasons people dismiss White is because of his contract, in which he's probably overpaid about $1-2M or so given his current play. If it wasn't for that, maybe people wouldn't immediately crap on his play because he's actually one of our best possession players and has been demonstrably better than Paul in most cases.
So having said all of that, I think White's the better player and I think Paul has shown this year that he's a very questionable center and would be better on the wing. Paul is 26, turning 27 in March, and White is 24, turning 25 in January.
Paul was White's age when he became an NHL regular, whereas White has a fantastic season alongside Tkachuk under his belt followed by some inconsistencies when thrown around the lineup. Stick him at 3C and give him reliable linemates (like Formenton and Brown) and on an improved PP2 and see how he does then. Would have been this year if not for his injury, but the absolute worst thing to be done is to buy him out and watch him go kick butt elsewhere. Especially if it's in favour of overplaying Nick Paul at 3C.
And one last thing? White seems to be the glue for the team. He's widely loved by everybody in the room and they often use him as a joke punching bag (which he happily takes). He's tight with Brady, with Bath, with Chabot, with the entire core. Since being drafted, his leadership has been commended, and he was flagged at the draft as being a potential letter-wearer in the future. For a young team in need of leadership, he would not be the guy I'd be sending out.